Winter '09-'10 is underway

[CanisLupusArctos]

The season's first snow is possible in the higher elevations of the Lakes Region tonight. Showers are expected to develop this afternoon and linger through the evening, especially at elevation. As the air cools they will change to snow at elevations of 1500 feet or higher. Mountains such as Whiteface or Passaconaway, which are near Sandwich, may have an inch accumulation. Elsewhere, no accumulation is expected.

An early season cold air mass is making its way through the western US where it is creating the first major snowstorm of the season in the mountains of Utah and western Wyoming. As the cold air plows the warmer air of the plains out of the way, expect to see reports of damaging severe weather there -- possibly a tornado outbreak. The cold air will then take over those areas too.

The system will move to the northeast this weekend but will bring us a soggy couple days of chilly rain.

Expect an unsettled pattern in the meantime, with each day having a mix of sun and showers. Any showers lingering at night may turn to snow at the higher elevations.

[dpg]

"they" claim it supposed to be another nasty winter with a good amount of snow. Who "they" is will vary from person to person. I still need to paint a water stain from a leak last winter. Yeah I know I'm right on the ball.

[Bear Guy]

"Sunday River made snow for the first time this season ... Saturday, September 26"

http://www.snowboard-revolution.com/...er-Season.html

[VitaBene]

Originally Posted by Bear Guy

"Sunday River made snow for the first time this season ... Saturday, September 26"

http://www.snowboard-revolution.com/...er-Season.html

BG- that is only so they can say they opened first (then close like most ski areas do until the conditions can actually support snow)

[chipj29]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

The season's first snow is possible in the higher elevations of the Lakes Region tonight. Showers are expected to develop this afternoon and linger through the evening, especially at elevation. As the air cools they will change to snow at elevations of 1500 feet or higher. Mountains such as Whiteface or Passaconaway, which are near Sandwich, may have an inch accumulation. Elsewhere, no accumulation is expected.

An early season cold air mass is making its way through the western US where it is creating the first major snowstorm of the season in the mountains of Utah and western Wyoming. As the cold air plows the warmer air of the plains out of the way, expect to see reports of damaging severe weather there -- possibly a tornado outbreak. The cold air will then take over those areas too.

The system will move to the northeast this weekend but will bring us a soggy couple days of chilly rain.

Expect an unsettled pattern in the meantime, with each day having a mix of sun and showers. Any showers lingering at night may turn to snow at the higher elevations.

I agree on 95% of your post. The only part I disagree with is the part I bolded about a chilly rain. It certainly won't be a warm rain, but temps should be in the 60's for the most part. But rain is rain, and rain we are gonna get!

[SIKSUKR]

Originally Posted by VitaBene

BG- that is only so they can say they opened first (then close like most ski areas do until the conditions can actually support snow)

Actually,they only did a "blow out the mice" operation.Less than an hour on 2 guns.They made no attempt to make snow to ski on.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by chipj29

I agree on 95% of your post. The only part I disagree with is the part I bolded about a chilly rain. It certainly won't be a warm rain, but temps should be in the 60's for the most part. But rain is rain, and rain we are gonna get!

We've had 0.37" today at Black Cat, and 50 degrees is as high as we've been all day. The warm front remains to our south. When I saw the forecast situation on the map I was torn between going for the 60-degree rain or the upper-40s rain ("hypothermia weather"). Going by normal October climatology I would've gone with the warmer solution but I've been watching abnormal cold features on the maps since July. So I chose to look at the warm front the same way I would look at it in winter and gambled on "it's not going to pass quickly."

[phoenix]

you the Man

[chipj29]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

We've had 0.37" today at Black Cat, and 50 degrees is as high as we've been all day. The warm front remains to our south. When I saw the forecast situation on the map I was torn between going for the 60-degree rain or the upper-40s rain ("hypothermia weather"). Going by normal October climatology I would've gone with the warmer solution but I've been watching abnormal cold features on the maps since July. So I chose to look at the warm front the same way I would look at it in winter and gambled on "it's not going to pass quickly."

Yup, you called it right, and I was way wrong. That warm front just never got north of us until Saturday night. I noticed the temp at my house go up about 4 degrees in the early evening.

[phoenix]

the forecast says a little snow later in the week. Maybe an early winter

[Rattlesnake Gal]

There was snow on several mountains last Friday. Made for nice foliage pictures.


Mount Lafayette


Mount Washington Hotel Resort
From left to right: Mount Jefferson, Mount Clay, Mount Washington and Mount Monroe.

[fpartri497]

WMUR is predicting 3_4 in. of SNOW north of the notches tonight

[trfour]

Originally Posted by fpartri497

WMUR is predicting 3_4 in. of SNOW north of the notches tonight

Can't Wait to dig the sleds out!

[SIKSUKR]

Did you take that first photo RG? That looks like it was taken from Bode Millers farm (the old Sel Hannah farm).

[Rattlesnake Gal]

Originally Posted by SIKSUKR

Did you take that first photo RG? That looks like it was taken from Bode Millers farm (the old Sel Hannah farm).

Yes I did take both pictures. We took a road trip from the lake up to Sugar Hill on October 2nd. I have no idea of the farm name, but here is where we were. Talk about spectacular views!

[SIKSUKR]

Sugar Hill has the most spectacular views in the state imo.My sister has a house just past the Sugar Hill Sampler which a friend and her family have owned for generations.Beautifull photos of that incredible landscape.

[rander7823]

Looks like Yuki is in for a long season

[ILoveWinnipesaukee]

OK, here in Spencer MA, we have a great dusting of snow this morning, am heading up for the weekend to the lake. Wondering what the forecast is for the lakes region, I do not get a great feel for it from the Boston Weather.

Cannot wait to see the snow on the mountains and what is left of the color on the trees. Plus of course the lake.

[Rattlesnake Gal]

Which one do you like best?

[jmen24]

You forgot one.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick...=123&map.y=200

p.s. I have no idea how to do the snapshot thing on the web so you will have to make do with the link.

[Rattlesnake Gal]

Originally Posted by jmen24

p.s. I have no idea how to do the snapshot thing on the web so you will have to make do with the link.

Check out the new Screen Capture Utility thread

I was quite shocked to see snow on the ground this morning.

We are heading to the lake tomorrow morning and it looks like there is a chance to catch some snow showers there too. We've never been there for that.

This winter is coming way too fast for me! Winter itself isn't the big problem for me, it is the ice storms that leave their mess and make life dangerous for this accident prone gal.

[RLW]

Right now it looks nice and clear. The attached is from channel 5 radar

[mg2107]

We skipped spring,summer and fall. It looks like we are just going to have modified winter the year round from now on.

[Turtle Boy]

But it sure feels good cranking up the woodstove and curling up for the night with no place that you have to go.

[DEJ]

I agree TB, nothing like a wood stove fire especially if you have a stove with glass doors where you can watch the fire as well.

Only drawback is the heat is so dry, if you heat mostly with wood durring the winter the air in the house gets very dry. I use a humidifier to help out with that problem, anyone have any other suggestions?

[RLW]

Originally Posted by DEJ

I agree TB, nothing like a wood stove fire especially if you have a stove with glass doors where you can watch the fire as well.

Only drawback is the heat is so dry, if you heat mostly with wood durring the winter the air in the house gets very dry. I use a humidifier to help out with that problem, anyone have any other suggestions?

Try leaving the bathroom door open when taking a shower. That helps alot also.

[john60ri]

We had a little bit of snow down here in Coventry RI on Thursday October 15. I don't recall it ever coming this early.

[Turtle Boy]

Originally Posted by DEJ

I agree TB, nothing like a wood stove fire especially if you have a stove with glass doors where you can watch the fire as well.

Only drawback is the heat is so dry, if you heat mostly with wood durring the winter the air in the house gets very dry. I use a humidifier to help out with that problem, anyone have any other suggestions?

You can buy an inexpensive black kettle just for woodstoves...probably available at your local woodstove dealer or even hardware store.

[mg2107]

Never mind about the woodstoves. How about some Indian Summer !

[CanisLupusArctos]

The island has seen its first snowfall of the season. Yesterday, depsite a forecast for rain, the storm blew in as snow. We were on its northern fringes all day, and there was no accumulation. However, the storm had the look and feel of any early December storm.

The weather pattern has been one more typically seen in late November or early December. Forecasters have been admittedly struggling with the computer models, which are not programmed to recognize this. They are programmed to consider normal conditions for the time of year, and they also consider deviations seen in the age of modern meteorology.

When the computer models aren't sure what to say, it leaves their human interpreters having to make educated guesses without the same level of computer help they've traditionally depended on.

When the arctic air mass that gave us our snow was first descending into the Rockies from Canada a couple weeks ago, the technical forecast discussions from the weather offices out there were pretty strongly worded and candid, as forecasters admitted to each other that they were looking at something very unusual, and that the temperatures in their final forecasts would have to be adjusted significantly downward from computer guidance as a result. The computers weren't grasping reality, while the people knew.

Similarly, yesterday's storm would have brought rain to the lakes region if it happened in a 'normal' October. The human forecasters stuck closer to that thinking. Last night, I was visiting with friends in Rochester, and we were watching the snow come down outside the window all evening. As the storm departed New England after midnight, radar indicated some moderate snow in a band right along the coast from Portland to Portsmouth.

There are certain rules of forecasting that apply at different times of the
year. This fall, forecasters who've pretended it's December have been forecasting with success.

Some forecasters are more willing to go against computer guidance than others, while some will always stick close to it. There aren't a lot of forecasters who are mentally able to "pretend it's December" when they know it's really October.

Therefore, think of every weather forecast in this area as potentially warmer than it will actually be. For any given forecast that you look at, don't be surprised if temperatures end up being colder, or if a forecast for rain turns out to be snow.

The ski trails at Gunstock are white today. For the summit elevation, October snow isn't unheard of, but it doesn't happen all the time, either.

While October 18 is very early for snow at this elevation (510 feet), we've had October snow two other occasions since 2000. October 2002 brought accumulating snow from here down to Massachusetts during peak foliage. October 20, 2006 brought a nor'easter whose rain changed to snow just before all precipitation ended around 8 p.m.

Originally Posted by chipj29

Yup, you called it right, and I was way wrong. That warm front just never got north of us until Saturday night. I noticed the temp at my house go up about 4 degrees in the early evening.

Thank you. I have to deflect credit though. It was an experiment on my part. I was already aware of other forecasters "pretending it's December" and being right, so I was curious. I didn't actually expect to be right - you made much more sense. When it worked I thought, "OMG it worked... pretending it's December is actually working in October." And that raises the thought, "OMG what will December bring?"

[CrawfordCentury]

Originally Posted by Turtle Boy

You can buy an inexpensive black kettle just for woodstoves...probably available at your local woodstove dealer or even hardware store.

We keep a big pot on our stovetop - the 3 gallon type used in canning. Works good for a 50 cent yardsale pickup.

Well-hydrated air feels warmer, too.

[corollaman]

yes, winter is certainly underway now, and it looks like another ice storm almost a year to the day as last year coming on wed.

[Lakegeezer]

Hey CLA, did you really get 6" at Black Cat Island from the snow on Friday? I'm about 3.5 miles ENE of you and we got, at most, 1/4". How can it be that different? I'm thinking the NWS got a decimal point wrong.

Sourced from the Union Leader article which says...
The National Weather Service collected statewide reports this morning on the snow dropped by the overnight storm.

• MADISON: 7.0
• BLACK CAT ISLAND (MOULTONBORO): 6.0

[hilltopper]

Originally Posted by Lakegeezer

Hey CLA, did you really get 6" at Black Cat Island from the snow on Friday? I'm about 3.5 miles ENE of you and we got, at most, 1/4". How can it be that different? I'm thinking the NWS got a decimal point wrong.

Sourced from the Union Leader article which says...
The National Weather Service collected statewide reports this morning on the snow dropped by the overnight storm.

• MADISON: 7.0
• BLACK CAT ISLAND (MOULTONBORO): 6.0

I measured 5" at my house in Meredith, so I can see Black Cat Island getting 6".

[RLW]

What is the word for this evening and tomorrow morning weather wise in the lake region?? I see that the southern part of the state they are saying 3 to 6 inches. I personally do not want to see plowable snow until the ground freezes up solid.

[trfour]

Originally Posted by RLW

What is the word for this evening and tomorrow morning weather wise in the lake region?? I see that the southern part of the state they are saying 3 to 6 inches. I personally do not want to see plowable snow until the ground freezes up solid.

Here's a link to the Black Cat Island Weather Station;

http://www.blackcatnh.com/index.html

[corollaman]

why does it matter whether the ground is frozen solid or not? Saturday's storm seems to be sticking to the grass pretty good!

[Resident 2B]

Looking like a much bigger event than originally thought. NWS has just changed the forecast: Winter Storm Warning with 6 to 10 inches of white gold!

Winter is on!

R2B

[jmen24]

Originally Posted by corollaman

why does it matter whether the ground is frozen solid or not? Saturday's storm seems to be sticking to the grass pretty good!

Because the plow blade will peel up the lawn and leave a nasty mess for the spring clean up. For those that plow for extra cash in the winter this can be a bad thing and if you have to constantly raise the blade at the grass line you add a fair amount of time to your route or yard clearing time.

[Lakesrider]

Calling for 10-12" now, depending on where you are exactly....Called it "quite an event."