And just like that...

ishoot308 · 02-26-2017, 07:50 AM

...the ice is gone!

chachee52 · 02-26-2017, 08:44 AM

Here's a look from water side. The first with ice was yesterday around 2pm, then the open water one was taken just now, at 8:45. What a difference Rain and wind will make. Hope everyone has gotten their bobhouses off the ice!!
The pics are looking over toward Scenic Drive and Locke Island.

Top-Water · 02-26-2017, 09:05 AM

Thanks for the post, was really wondering what the condition of the ice was.

Was driving by Lake Massabesic in Auburn yesterday and it has a large opening up of the ice as well and could not help but wonder if someone would post something about winni soon.

Great news for us folks that can't wait to get back out on the water.

tis · 02-26-2017, 09:21 AM

That's amazing! Thanks for posting! I think it is going to be an early ice out.

MAXUM · 02-26-2017, 09:36 AM

And it's windy today that's going to really start ripping that ice up good. Could be another year where permanent docks take a beating. There may not have been a ton of ice out there this year but get big enough slabs of solid ice breaking free and smashing into things will certainly wreck whatever is in it's path.

Slickcraft · 02-26-2017, 10:23 AM

Walking on Belknap Point Road this morning I could see that the open water extended to the north east side of Welch. There is still ice between Belknap Point and Welch.

Doobs41378 · 02-26-2017, 11:12 AM

If that is LSP then my grandparent's cottage is right next to the yellow one ( to the left of it) in this picture. Many a summers spent there.

chachee52 · 02-26-2017, 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doobs41378

If that is LSP then my grandparent's cottage is right next to the yellow one ( to the left of it) in this picture. Many a summers spent there.

It is LSP. Been up here all my life. Have MANY photo albums of sunsets.

Lakegeezer · 02-26-2017, 01:50 PM

While pouring over data to make my 2017 ice out guess (which is rarely close), here is an interesting trend line over the last 130 years to share. I used a 5'th order polynomial trend line, keeping in mind that all models are wrong, some are useful. :-)

Slickcraft · 02-26-2017, 03:20 PM

lg: It looks like the variance has been fairly constant over time.

FlyingScot · 02-26-2017, 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Slickcraft

lg: It looks like the variance has been fairly constant over time.

It's true that if one only focuses on the single data point for each year then it looks like "the variance has been fairly constant over time". But lg's smoothing curve averages recent data so that a naked eye is not fooled by year to year noise.

The chart actually shows 40 years of warming from the the 1970s to today.

lakershaker · 02-26-2017, 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PeterG

It's true that if one only focuses on the single data point for each year then it looks like "the variance has been fairly constant over time". But lg's smoothing curve averages recent data so that a naked eye is not fooled by year to year noise.

The chart actually shows 40 years of warming from the the 1970s to today.

Actually, the chart shows ice out happening earlier over 40 years from 1970s to today. I don't see any reference to temperature. As people on the lake know, there are variables other than just temperature that determine ice-in and ice-out days. Wind being another major one.

FlyingScot · 02-27-2017, 12:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lakershaker

Actually, the chart shows ice out happening earlier over 40 years from 1970s to today. I don't see any reference to temperature. As people on the lake know, there are variables other than just temperature that determine ice-in and ice-out days. Wind being another major one.

I stand corrected, there was no reference to temperature. Rather than "warming", I should have said "warming effects". For we all know that there is a huge volume of data elsewhere that show our climate has warmed over the past 40 years, and that trend is well illustrated by the chart.

Wind speed, precipitation, sunshine, and other factors that have not shown steady trends over the decades would be likely causes of the sharp year-to-year variability. That's another reason why the smoothing is helpful.

Blue Thunder · 02-27-2017, 02:11 PM

And the ice conditions referenced above look like this today...

SIKSUKR · 02-27-2017, 02:14 PM

Hi BT.Can you provide that direct link to those daily sat pics?Thanks.

HellRaZoR004 · 02-27-2017, 02:56 PM

http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/

02-26-2017, 07:50 AM	#1
ishoot308 Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Gilford, NH / Welch Island Posts: 6,266 Thanks: 2,398 Thanked 5,286 Times in 2,057 Posts	And just like that... ...the ice is gone! Attached Images __________________ It's Always Sunny On Welch Island!!

02-26-2017, 08:44 AM	#2
chachee52 Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2012 Location: Gilford, NH Posts: 453 Thanks: 6 Thanked 94 Times in 73 Posts	Here's a look from water side. The first with ice was yesterday around 2pm, then the open water one was taken just now, at 8:45. What a difference Rain and wind will make. Hope everyone has gotten their bobhouses off the ice!! The pics are looking over toward Scenic Drive and Locke Island. Attached Images

02-26-2017, 01:50 PM	#9
Lakegeezer Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Moultonboro, NH Posts: 1,678 Blog Entries: 1 Thanks: 354 Thanked 639 Times in 290 Posts	Guessing with models While pouring over data to make my 2017 ice out guess (which is rarely close), here is an interesting trend line over the last 130 years to share. I used a 5'th order polynomial trend line, keeping in mind that all models are wrong, some are useful. :-) Attached Images __________________ -lg

02-27-2017, 02:11 PM	#14
Blue Thunder Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Eastern MA & Frye Island/Sebago Lake, Maine Posts: 951 Thanks: 252 Thanked 351 Times in 158 Posts	And the ice conditions referenced above look like this today... Attached Images __________________ " Live for today because yesterday is gone and tomorrow may never come"

02-27-2017, 02:14 PM	#15
SIKSUKR Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 5,075 Thanks: 215 Thanked 903 Times in 509 Posts	Hi BT.Can you provide that direct link to those daily sat pics?Thanks. __________________ SIKSUKR

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02-26-2017, 09:05 AM	#3
Top-Water Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 674 Thanks: 1,535 Thanked 714 Times in 431 Posts	Thanks for the post, was really wondering what the condition of the ice was. Was driving by Lake Massabesic in Auburn yesterday and it has a large opening up of the ice as well and could not help but wonder if someone would post something about winni soon. Great news for us folks that can't wait to get back out on the water.

02-26-2017, 09:21 AM	#4
tis Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 6,742 Thanks: 752 Thanked 1,458 Times in 1,015 Posts	That's amazing! Thanks for posting! I think it is going to be an early ice out.

02-26-2017, 09:36 AM	#5
MAXUM Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Kuna ID Posts: 2,755 Thanks: 246 Thanked 1,942 Times in 802 Posts	And it's windy today that's going to really start ripping that ice up good. Could be another year where permanent docks take a beating. There may not have been a ton of ice out there this year but get big enough slabs of solid ice breaking free and smashing into things will certainly wreck whatever is in it's path.

02-26-2017, 10:23 AM	#6
Slickcraft Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Welch Island and The Taylor Community Posts: 3,307 Thanks: 1,227 Thanked 2,098 Times in 957 Posts	Walking on Belknap Point Road this morning I could see that the open water extended to the north east side of Welch. There is still ice between Belknap Point and Welch.

02-26-2017, 11:12 AM	#7
Doobs41378 Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 510 Thanks: 234 Thanked 88 Times in 73 Posts	If that is LSP then my grandparent's cottage is right next to the yellow one ( to the left of it) in this picture. Many a summers spent there.

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02-26-2017, 03:20 PM	#10
Slickcraft Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Welch Island and The Taylor Community Posts: 3,307 Thanks: 1,227 Thanked 2,098 Times in 957 Posts	lg: It looks like the variance has been fairly constant over time.

02-27-2017, 02:56 PM	#16
HellRaZoR004 Senior Member Join Date: May 2012 Location: Litchfield/Gilford Posts: 828 Thanks: 233 Thanked 224 Times in 131 Posts	http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/