Spring 2011 Flood Discussion

[CanisLupusArctos]

Discuss lake-flood issues for spring 2011 here.

Iceout has been declared April 19 -- about as average as iceout-date gets. Now we turn our attention to the water level. Lake Winnipesaukee is about 3 inches above-full, and is rising.

We are expecting more rain, possibly heavy, on Wednesday and Saturday. Wind is a good bet with these systems. Waves will add to the flooding effect. If the lake is 6 inches above full -- which it easily could be in one week -- then 1-foot waves (common to the lake) will add 12 inches to the water's reach. Waves of 1.5 feet in height are also common on this lake. Those would make the water able to reach 2 feet *directly* above its 'full' level (i.e., a vertical shore wall). The water would travel much farther up a sloped shoreline.

Nationwide, a winter-like weather pattern continues. Cold air masses are moving out of Canada into the Rockies and plains where they are interacting with comparatively warmer air to create snowstorms. The storms then push lines of severe weather ahead of themselves as the spin of the earth deviates their southward movement toward the east. Finally, they find us here in the lakes region, giving us the kind of rain & wind storms common to early December -- powerful winter-style storms tracking to our west, giving us "the rainy side" while the Great Lakes get the snowy side.

Until this pattern breaks, we may expect more of the same, resulting in more lake level rise.