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#1 | |
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If it were a law regulating large trucks would you only poll truckers? For a poll on casino gambling in NH, would you only poll gamblers? |
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#2 | |
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My opinion is that polling the most interested group is the way to go. Sure, all citizens opinions matter. As stated above, the users opinion should carry more weight than a non-user. |
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#3 | |
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Some voter in Manchester who has never been on a boat on Winnipesaukee and never will , and who have no knowledge of boating really is not an important opinion in my view. Regulating boating laws on Winnipesaukee has a much tighter circle of effect. |
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#4 | |
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#5 | |
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However I think polls, especially exit polls, are used to much in our society. I have quoted this poll to counter the idea that the "people" don't want HB847. I will admit it would be difficult not to use a poll that so clearly supports your argument. The weakness of this poll is not that many will not have boated on Winnipesaukee. It's the inadvisability of relying on the opinion of people that know very little about about the details and history of the topic. |
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#6 |
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NH citizens that are lake users should have a stronger say on lake issues than the general NH population, because they have more knowledge of reality. The NH general population should get involved with issues such as water quality and economic issues, but should stay away from micromanagement of how to drive a boat - especially since the rules already define safe boating.
My big problem with the polls is that they can (and have been) impacted by a PR campaign. The image that the WinnFabs have been promoting is a lake that is out of control. It has been effective in swaying opinion, and no doubt impacting the local economy. On most of the lake, most of the time, it is far from true.
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#7 |
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Folks,
If the proponents wanted to do a survey that was fair, they would have done it in Laconia, or Meredith, or Alton, or Wolfeboro. However, if they did the survey in one of these places, they knew they would not get the desired result. So they did the survey in Manchester, not a center of lake knowledge in my opinion, after a well-designed PR campaign that told the people in Manchester that the lake was full of dangerously fast boats. They got the result they wanted even though the people that they polled had no first-hand knowledge of boating on the lake. In the end they got "hard evidence". That is what they wanted and that is what they bought! Do not get fooled by this!! Of course it makes no sense. They paid for a survey that would support their cause. That is exactly what it is. The survey is complete crap!! They know it and we know it. However, it supports their cause just like the other smoke and mirrors they use. I hope that in the end, the Senate will see through all of this and do the right thing. I believe the Senate knows crap when they see it. R2B |
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#8 | |
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Do you have evidence that the proponents paid for this survey as you claim? |
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#9 |
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He is policy director of some pro hb847 group and he presented the stats as though they collected them. Lame presentation, and he didn't sell it well.
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#10 |
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APS your jetski/sufer picture is priceless. How ignorant do you think people are? Most legit surfing competitions HIRE jetskis to bring surfers out, rescue stranded surfers and to be available in case of surfer emergency. Your picture is just an example of mother nature and how unpredictable she can be. Shame on you for your blatant fear mongering and trying to link this picture with ANYTHING that could happen on the lake...tsk tsk tsk.
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#11 | |
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![]() ![]() APS - duuuuude, looks like you have no surfing experience either, huh!?! ![]() ![]() |
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#12 | |
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![]() Anyway, the guy was supposed to be there. He just mishandled a wave. Nice try on the horror spin and fear mongering APS. |
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#13 | |
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ARG did the survey and they do not work for free. WINNSFABS is using the data. Who else would have paid for it?? If it looks like a duck, and walks like a duck, and sounds like a duck, it is a duck!! R2B |
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#14 | |
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#15 |
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Just Sold ![]() At the lake the stress of daily life just melts away. Pro Re Nata |
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#16 |
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If you call that "solid" evidence, please don't go out on the lake ice.
And from a REPUBLICAN Representative in a Winnipesaukee town. Rep. Alida Mill ham, R-Gilford, agreed, saying that New Hampshire lawmakers are always hesitant to pass laws that impact people's freedoms, but she said certain issues reach a "tipping point" where action is necessary. "I think New Hampshire is at that point," said Millham. Millham said she has had two close calls while boating on the lake where speed played a part in a safety concern. Can anyone explain why this boating Legislators opinion does not count? Last edited by Islander; 04-22-2008 at 05:07 PM. |
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#17 | |
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She is not a Senator, she is a member of the House from Belknap County (Republican from Gilford). The House has already had its say.... ![]() |
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#18 | |
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Why no correction about the American Research Group? |
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#20 | |
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Being a sponsor of the Bill might explain her wordage...
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#21 | |
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Those who were in favor of HB847 kept using the phrase "excessive speed" to make their points and in some cases very sheepishly as if to make us believe excessive speed means over 45 MPH when in fact it's doesn't |
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#22 | |
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http://www.fosters.com/apps/pbcs.dll...805/-1/CITNEWS Hazelnut - The wheels are coming off the opposition bus amid false accusations about WinnFABS and you come up with "crumbling"? You are losing touch, wait for the vote. |
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#23 | |
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There is no way you can disgree with that statement and IMHO is really what her problem was at whatever incidents happened. Had those incidents she cited happened with boats going over 45 MPH she would have said speeding, or traveling over 45 MPH, or something to that affect, but she didn't and I suggest that is because it was really 150' violations and she was spinning them into the speed limit arguement. I hardly think a speed limit would have affected those situations. |
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#24 | |
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Actual speed is a matter of opinion unless being measured electronically. Not everyone can look at a vessel under way and estimate with a fair level of accuracy at what speed it is traveling. "Speed played a part in safety" does not mean that a boat was necessarily speeding. Probably an infringement of the 150' rule. Spin away... |
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#25 | |
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I don't know the details behind the representatives encounters on the lake. But no matter what happened, one of our elected leaders thinks it's a problem that needs to be addressed. |
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#27 |
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While the current legislation we are discussing is not specifically mentioned in this op-ed piece, I thought that this particular opinion is both timely and relevant to the discussion at hand.
Charlie Arlinghause in this morning's Union Leader. ![]() |
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#28 | |
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Chase1 |
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#29 | |||||
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![]() Boaters in the mix were not a problem—but they are now—and are being banned in several places. Quote:
![]() BTW, All collisions are 150' infractions: If your PWC is damaged and needs less than $2000 to repair, a report to NHMP is unnecessary. (A recent change for NH boaters—upped from $500). ...but the statistic is lost: The Coast Guard estimates that only 10% of non-fatal collision reports make it to their desk. ![]() Quote:
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The quantity of "incidents" with riderless and overpowered 4½-ton boats are legion. Long Lake's "driver-free ride" last year endangered lake dwellers 130 feet up from the shoreline. (Not a record, BTW...500 feet is a recent record.) Quote:
2) Certification with reciprocity is deeply flawed for New Hampshire—and a two year sunset provision is a good test, and Not Forever. 3) I think the governor will sign it. Who would want the ramifications of the next incident on his hands?
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#30 | |
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#31 |
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#32 |
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#33 |
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"MANCHESTER, N.H. -- Gov. John Lynch said Thursday that he's not sure he'd sign a plan to set overall boat speed limits on Lake Winnipesaukee
The House on Wednesday approved setting speed limits for a two-year trial period. The bill that now goes to the Senate would set limits of 45 mph during the day and 25 mph at night. Speaking on WGIR, Lynch said he doesn't think overall boat speeds are the most egregious problem on Lake Winnipesaukee. He said there are other problems, such as boats going too fast while too close to other boats or to shore. He said he would consider the proposed limit if it gets to his desk." |
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#34 | |
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#35 | |
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Glad to hear that there is some common sense in Concord. ![]() |
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#36 |
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Wh is this? Because damages ranging between $500-$2000 are not serious and certainly nothing that a speed limit will prevent. Anything serious would be reported, a boat hitting a rock and not sinking or a few boats bumping at a dock are of no concern to the CG.
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#38 | ||
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![]() Conversely, if your $2200 purple-and-yellow-plastic graphics decal got damaged in the collision, you'd need to file a report. (You have 24-hours to report any of the boat's occupants killed, crushed, or drowned). Quote:
Rock-striking would be "running aground" or "striking a fixed object". Each is a separate category in CG statistics, and which receive full Coast Guard statistical attention IF reported to the NHMP. New Hampshire recorded only two full-season BUIs and two "Running Agrounds" in recent years—statewide! California, for example, still requires reports of >$500 damage, which makes California "look" more hazardous to boaters. Conversely, New Hampshire reports so few Winnipesaukee damage reports—the threshold being $2000—it instantly assumes a "statistically safer" lake over California's lakes. Pret-t-y smart of our tourist-state's Legislators, huh? ![]()
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#39 | |
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![]() I've been to more than one of the Hawaiian islands but I don't claim to be to be King Kamehameha! ![]() |
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#40 | |
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What makes you believe that the ARG does not work for free? Yes, WinnFABS is using the data. Would the opposition use the data if it supported their position? The ARG has been taking what they call the "New Hampshire Poll" on current events, quarterly for more than 30 years. It is my understanding that the speed limit questions were part of that poll. If there is evidence to the contrary I would appreciate someone producing it. I have quoted that study many times, but would not have done so if I thought it was paid for by one side. |
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#41 | |
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Anyway, the poll was commissioned and paid for by the NH Lakes Association, a supporter of WINNFABS and a solid proponent of speed limit legislation: FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT: Nancy Christie, NH Lakes Association (603) 226-0299 NEW STATEWIDE POLL INDICATES STRONG SUPPORT FOR 45 MPH DAYTIME /25 MPH NIGHTTIME SPEED LIMITS ON STATE’S PUBLIC WATERS Concord, NH (February 16, 2006) – According to a recent poll of New Hampshire registered voters, 63 percent favor a state law that would place a 45 mph daytime and a 25 mph nighttime speed limit on all inland public waters – lakes, ponds and rivers. Only 9% opposed the idea. The study was commissioned by the New Hampshire Lakes Association, a statewide, non-profit organization whose mission is to protect the Public Trust, and conducted by the American Research Group of Manchester, NH...... |
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#42 | |
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![]() More spin coming in T-minus 3....2....1.... |
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#43 | |
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However from the dates that looks like the second study done in 2006. Who paid for the "New Hampshire Poll" done in the spring of 2005? |
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Thanks Skip. Glad you got to the bottom of that. I can connect the dots and follow the $$ trail. Chipj29, you are right, it does not claim WinnFabs paid for the poll but others can connect the dots too. The $$ might not make any difference if the poll is not biased.
It's been explained before but let me try to explain it this way: If my dear elderly aunt were still alive (her family were long time residents of Manchester) she might have been one of those polled. She would have been misled and answered the questions under false assumptions. The poll taker would probably say who he was and that he was conducting a telephone poll. Then he starts the poll. The bias starts with the set up statement - it is not properly worded The Script for the poll wording starts: "Do you favor or oppose a law that would impose speed limits for boats on large lakes in New Hampshire?" (so there is no confusion, I have stopped quoting and now present my brief summary of the 4 questions and my comments) That set-up makes it sound like there are NO speed limits on the lake(s) and nothing in the law about reasonable speeds or the 150' law. Only a small percentage of those polled might know what is already in place. Laws are already in place about reasonable speed. What is Marine Patrol having trouble enforcing and how would a 45/25 speed limits help the MP? Not mentioned to those polled. There were 3 answer choices: Favor, Oppose, Undecided. The 4 questions all specify a 45mph day and 25 mph night speed limit for boats. The questions: Do you favor a 45/25 limit? Do you BELIEVE 45/25 will make lakes safer, make lakes more enjoyable, help MP enforce boating laws. My elderly aunt would sure want safer and friendlier lakes. Help Marine Patrol enforce the law, who wouldn't want that? Sure she would tend to FAVOR the best sounding of the ONLY CHOICES PRESENTED to her. She wouldn't know that there were already speed limits and laws regarding reasonable speed on the big lake. Obviously do you favor or oppose a law that would impose speed limits for boats MUST mean that speed is not currently addressed. A FALSE assumption to start with. It would HELP the Marine Patrol to impose 45/25 mph speed limits. Did the MP ever say they were in need of this limit to "help" them or is this all an attempt at adding bias to the response to the poll questions? The funding, the wording - is this really an unbiased poll? Thanks again Skip. And Chipj, I'm gonna get dizzy from all the upcoming spinning ![]() Sigh... let them vote already and get this over with!
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#45 |
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Hi Skip
Good to see we have finally sucked you into the fight! My post referred to the New Hampshire Poll taken in June 2005. This is the one that started all the POLL controversy. I see you have found that the later poll with more questions was ordered by NHLA. Do you know if the New Hampshire Poll was paid for? It looks like it is part of their ongoing public opinion polls. "The New Hampshire Poll is an independent poll that has surveyed New Hampshire residents on social, political, and economic issues on a regular basis since 1976" They say it is "independent" to my way of thinking that means not paid for by one side. Do you think this is not true? http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/ |
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#47 | |
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Quarterly results: NH Business Conditions Personal Finances NH/US in a Recession Lynch Job Ratings Bush Job Ratings in NH Non-quarterly surveys: Shaheen/Sununu Guinta/Lynch 4-Year Term Civil Unions Smoking Ban Boat Speed Limits Income Tax Kelo Amendment 2004 Democratic Tracking 2004 Democratic Presidential Preference December 1976 Return to ARG home |
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#48 | |
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And Yes, I believe the "New Hampshire Poll" is done as part of their ongoing independent surveys. In any event a responsible person would know the answer BEFORE posting that it was WinnFABS. If you post without knowing and later find out your guess was right that is luck, not vindication. |
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#49 | |
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Your side is doing all it can to buy a law that restricts the personal freedom of a group of people that your side does not want on the lake. That is clearly what you folks are doing through your very-well financed, professional campaign. Your side has stooped to no limit in doing this. Baised surveys, misinformation about things on other lakes in other states that do not have our 150' rule and photos that create false messages are what you folks are all about. To me, your activities are very un-American and completely shameless. You all should be thinking about your devious role in a free society. This has just been completely proven by many posters who care about freedom and the rights of American citizens who like to boat on a lake that your side thinks they own. Your recent post shows the behavior of a child that just got caught with his or her hand in the cookie jar. ![]() R2B |
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Both sides can get carried away in heated argument. If you don't like what WinnFABS has done complain to them or complain about them. I am only responsible for me. I disagree with WinnFABS on some key points, in general I support what they do, speed limits. You have made another claim "well financed" I think you are guessing again. Financed by who? The deep pockets seem to be on your side of the argument. I can tell you I have not seen a penny. Perhaps when this is all over you will consider that a person can believe in freedom, America AND speed limits. |
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My recollection is that the first poll was done independant with only one question. The anti speed limit group said there were not enough questions (and other complaints). NHLA would not sign onto HB162 then because it was only for Winnipesaukee. The next year NHLA had American Reesearch do a more detailed study.
The only poll that counts is done in the State House. |
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Watch out Skip , here it comes
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It was commissioned by a clear supporter of Winnfabs, people that are probably members of Winnfabs as well. Basically the same people! A pretty basic way of putting just enough distance between the two so that it is not so obvious that Winnfabbs is behind it. No conspiracy theory needed... The solid fact here is that it was started by a supporter of the speed limit. That is hard to deny. If this was to be a real survey it should have been conducted by a neutral party and with a group that had solid knowledge of the lake instead of people that may not have ever even been here. Your group claims that the MP speed study was tainted but don't think this one is? Give me a break!!! At this point I don't really care what happens. I think that it is a pathetic campaign that the supporters have concocted to push this through. Fear, lies and misconceptions are all that this is based on. It won't affect me either way. I hope you get what you wish for, the end result many not be as pleasant as you think... |
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#56 | |
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This is the post that started this funding discussion. BI can spin it all he wants. I did not mention a specific poll. My point was they bought a poll and the poll was biased towards their desired result and taken in an area that is not close to the lake at all. I believe the statements I made have been justified. The survey is crap!!!! Thanks all! R2B Last edited by Resident 2B; 04-23-2008 at 10:32 AM. |
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