![]() |
![]() |
|
Home | Forums | Gallery | Webcams | Blogs | YouTube Channel | Classifieds | Calendar | Register | FAQ | Donate | Members List | Today's Posts | Search |
![]() |
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
![]() |
#1 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: North Shore, MA
Posts: 1,357
Thanks: 994
Thanked 313 Times in 163 Posts
|
![]()
Folks, it is starting to look like the mid week event for this coming week will be a decent snow storm.
The models are not in complete agreement, and the GFS really cannot be trusted 4 to 5 days out, but it is looking like something will develop off the mid-Atlantic coast and move northeast. We should have cold air in place and the upper levels also look cold, so if a storm comes up and is close enough, it will be snow. This has the potential to be a major storm. Time will tell. R2B |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#2 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Viewing Winnipesaukee
Posts: 100
Thanks: 0
Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post
|
![]()
THATS four days out.
Winter of '69, w/o saying name of forecaster, he said 2-3" flurries; we got 3-4 FEET, in a few days. |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#3 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 2,117
Thanks: 1,325
Thanked 559 Times in 288 Posts
|
![]()
No more, no more............My back hurts from all the shoveling and there is no place to put the new snow. Isn't it spring yet?
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#4 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Meredith
Posts: 727
Thanks: 25
Thanked 109 Times in 70 Posts
|
![]()
Looks like the NWS is now calling for snow Tuesday night / Wednesday morning then switching to a mix Wednesday afternoon. Not that we don't have plenty of the white stuff, but I hope they're wrong about the mixing...
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#5 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: North Shore, MA
Posts: 1,357
Thanks: 994
Thanked 313 Times in 163 Posts
|
![]()
Just checked things out and it still looks like a storm for Tuesday night and Wednesday.
The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast or QPF is looking like 1" to 1.5" of liquid so if it is all snow at a 10:1 ratio, that would be 10" to 15". However, I do not think we will see all snow or if we do, it will be wet and more in the 6:1to 8:1 ratio range. Although it is now very cold, the models show a Low Level Jet from the south with warm and moist air during the storm. This should impact accumulations somewhat. I would guess that we will have a Y1 to Y1.5 storm in the Laconia area, or about 7" to 10" by the time it ends on Wednesday. If we get the 10:1 ratio it would be more, and if the warm air lifts farther north, it could be less. It is possible for a period of ice in the lakes region, so be aware of that. South of the lakes, it is likely to be mixed with rain for some period of time and the mountain should see all snow. Mass school vacation week is next week, so the deeper cover is good for the ski businesses. R2B |
![]() |
![]() |
Sponsored Links |
|
![]() |
#6 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Center Harbor
Posts: 1,049
Thanks: 15
Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts
|
![]()
This scenario has happened before, in this winter. I forget which storm it was, because there've been so many, but we should look closely at what happened in order to figure this one out.
There is low pressure moving up to our west. A secondary low is forecast to get going off the NJ coast and move along the shoreline. The first low will bring up warm air that will threaten to change the snow to mix/ice/rain. The second low will be on the other side of us, giving us its cold sector. So the question is, will the coastal low get strong enough to keep the other one from bringing in too much warm air? If I remember correctly, the last time this scenario happened (this winter) the coastal low got stronger than the models predicted and kept pulling cold air down at the lower levels. As a result, we never went over to plain rain, as the models were insisting would happen. At this point, we have so much liquid locked up in the existing snowpack that any sudden change to spring weather (or melting rains) will not be a good thing. Since the snowpack formed on Dec. 3 we've had over 7 inches of precip, most of which is still on the ground as snow. For comparison, the May 2006 floods produced just over 6 inches of rain over a period of several days. |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#7 |
Deceased Member
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Gilford, NH
Posts: 2,311
Thanks: 1,070
Thanked 2,054 Times in 497 Posts
|
![]()
I have been informed that no amount of catnip will get him out of the house.
And we call them dumb animals. ![]() So.. in an effort to get him back to work.. It's come to this.. ![]() You Pay Shipping.. ![]()
__________________
"Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, if he gets angry he'll be a mile away and barefoot!" unknown |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#8 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Center Harbor
Posts: 1,049
Thanks: 15
Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts
|
![]()
Wow, this creates the Steve Index... a scale for snow deep enough to lose Yuki like a BB in a boxcar.
And that looks like an S1 to S1.5 snowbank! ![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#9 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Dover, NH
Posts: 1,615
Thanks: 256
Thanked 514 Times in 182 Posts
|
![]()
Look at the bright side Steve.
You can take those pictures right on down to the Gilford assessor and get immediate relief from the view tax!!! ![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#10 | |
Deceased Member
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Gilford, NH
Posts: 2,311
Thanks: 1,070
Thanked 2,054 Times in 497 Posts
|
![]() Quote:
![]()
__________________
"Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, if he gets angry he'll be a mile away and barefoot!" unknown |
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#11 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Eastern MA & Frye Island/Sebago Lake, Maine
Posts: 951
Thanks: 252
Thanked 351 Times in 158 Posts
|
![]() Quote:
BT
__________________
" Live for today because yesterday is gone and tomorrow may never come" |
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#12 |
Senior Member
|
![]()
A ten below, sunny morning here in Waterville Valley and some jogger just run by on the public sidewalk that the town keeps clear with its' $40,000. sidewalk, sno-thrower....how about that....jogging at ten below....w/ a face mask.
Quite the machine, it's a Canadian-made, Bombardier, diesel-powered, sidewalk sno-thrower that cuts a clean 48" path along WV's miles of sidewalks.
__________________
... down and out, liv'n that Walmart side of the lake! Last edited by fatlazyless; 02-12-2008 at 08:32 AM. |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#13 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Eastern MA & Frye Island/Sebago Lake, Maine
Posts: 951
Thanks: 252
Thanked 351 Times in 158 Posts
|
![]()
FLL,
If they got it for 40K and it's the typical Bombardier that a lot of municipalities run, that's a steal. They are 100K new. BT
__________________
" Live for today because yesterday is gone and tomorrow may never come" |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#14 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Piscataway, NJ
Posts: 1,030
Thanks: 2
Thanked 46 Times in 24 Posts
|
![]()
I just saw on Fox News Channel that 12"+ is forecast. That settles it the 4WD is the vehicle of choice for the trip up this weekend. They tell me it is snowing here in Bedminster, NJ but since we don't have windows I cannot tell. If we had windows all I would see is worms and gophers.
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#15 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Weirs Beach, NH
Posts: 1,067
Thanks: 0
Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post
|
![]()
Steve, 2 Yuki replacements free to a good, err, any home! The only drawback is one of them has also refused to leave the house since the temp went below 20°.
Maybe I should have kept that last part to myself. ![]()
__________________
Is it bikeweek yet? Now? |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#16 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Center Harbor
Posts: 1,049
Thanks: 15
Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts
|
![]() Quote:
Winter Storm Warning in effect for tonight and tomorrow. We're looking for around 6 inches of heavy wet snow followed by up to a half-inch of ice accum. Prepare for power outages with this one. |
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#17 | |
Deceased Member
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Gilford, NH
Posts: 2,311
Thanks: 1,070
Thanked 2,054 Times in 497 Posts
|
![]() Quote:
![]()
__________________
"Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, if he gets angry he'll be a mile away and barefoot!" unknown |
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#18 |
Deceased Member
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Gilford, NH
Posts: 2,311
Thanks: 1,070
Thanked 2,054 Times in 497 Posts
|
![]()
[QUOTE=Blue Thunder;63317]Nice scarf! Did you pick that out yourself? (sorry)
Yes I did... my wife had picked out a bright blue one (to match my eyes and sweater) and I couldn't find my reindeer headpiece.. so I settled for the ugly stocking cap and the fuzzy Red Scarf ![]()
__________________
"Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, if he gets angry he'll be a mile away and barefoot!" unknown |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#19 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 498
Thanks: 62
Thanked 71 Times in 32 Posts
|
![]()
Our male cat, Nick, would love to take Yuki's job. The idiot always wants to follow the dog out, even though I know as soon as he hits the snow, he'd be right back in. He's just dumb enough to do this over and over and over...he'd never remember he doesn't like the snow. His sister, Nora, would probably follow after a while. Anyone want to give us a house so we can move up there?
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#20 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Moultonborough when I can / RI
Posts: 699
Thanks: 180
Thanked 38 Times in 22 Posts
|
![]()
so what's it like up there this morning??
radar is showing mix; but looks to be snow on the cams... how much fell overnight? |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#21 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Moultonboro, NH
Posts: 1,677
Blog Entries: 1
Thanks: 354
Thanked 639 Times in 290 Posts
|
![]()
We got 10-12" of fluffy overnight, and it changed to sleet around 8:30. Now its a mix of sleet and a few big flakes.
__________________
-lg |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#22 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Clifton, NJ, Alton Bay
Posts: 827
Thanks: 255
Thanked 225 Times in 131 Posts
|
![]() Quote:
![]() Last edited by ghfromaltonbay; 02-13-2008 at 02:55 PM. |
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#23 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Center Harbor
Posts: 1,049
Thanks: 15
Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts
|
![]()
The snow total on Black Cat was 8.7 inches. It changed to sleet at 8 a.m. and then to freezing rain around 10. It has been freezing rain ever since. The trees and power lines are now totally coated.
I just got off the phone with the NWS-Gray who told me they're getting more reports of power outages. However, the observer in Wolfeborough told them that it started raining so heavy that it was knocking the ice off of things (it takes a lighter rain to freeze more, or else the force of the rainfall will bust up the ice buildup.) The temperature is 30 degrees and we're not likely to see it go up much for several hours. The saving grace with this storm is that the air is a bit warmer where the rain is coming from, so it's not freezing as quickly as it could. Also, the snow was mostly powder, so the trees didn't get cemented over before the changeover. The snow is now cement, though. I'm glad I got the major shoveling done before the changeover, because the parts I left for 'after breakfast' made me feel like a contestant on 'America's Biggest Loser.' Any roads that still need plowing will now require bigger equipment - this stuff is full of water now. Snowpack here is now 32 inches. As I mentioned in a few days ago, we've had a lot of water come down from the sky as snow and most of it is still on the ground. The reason the snowpack isn't higher is because it's constantly compacting down on its own weight. Today's water content is an inch and a half. My guess is that what's on the ground now has water content that easily surpasses the rainfall of the May 2006 flood. If what's on the lake ice melted quickly (ONLY what's on the lake ice) the water level would rise about 4-5 inches. Now add runoff from the mountain snowpack, the islands, and shores... inflow from rivers... you do the math. When I posed this curiosity to the NWS a few minutes ago he said they were beginning to look at the situation. Next week, he said a hydrologist will be testing the snowpack in various places to measure its water content. This, in turn, will help the Northeast River Forecast Center in Taunton MA to start crunching the numbers for spring flood potential. As long as the weather stays cold enough to give us powder snow, doesn't rain, and spring comes very slowly over a period of several weeks, we should be fine. The season snow total is now 89.1 inches. The first half of February has brought us 31.6 inches, and February's precipitation total (melted snow, rain, etc. is 3.96" More info on today's storm is on www.blackcatnh.com/weather. |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#24 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Tampa, FL
Posts: 58
Thanks: 5
Thanked 3 Times in 3 Posts
|
![]()
How do you determine snowpack over such a long period of time?
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#25 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Weirs Beach, NH
Posts: 1,067
Thanks: 0
Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post
|
![]() Quote:
__________________
Is it bikeweek yet? Now? |
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#26 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Rock Haven Lake - West Newfield, ME
Posts: 5,367
Thanks: 374
Thanked 1,057 Times in 495 Posts
|
![]()
I noticed that the Manchester Union leader is reporting the snow depth on Black Cat Island!!
SEE SNOW TOTALS |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#27 |
Senior Member
|
![]()
Just checked the msn weather forecast for the next three days for 03253-Meredith and it shows Thurs-Fri-Sat having colder highs, and colder lows with each passing day.
What will that do to all this wet, heavy, concrete-like snow as the rain is now falling? Me-thinks today is the day to get to woik on it...mush you huskies mush! If I have a heart attack while shoveling this stuff, it's been a blast!
__________________
... down and out, liv'n that Walmart side of the lake! |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#28 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 5,075
Thanks: 215
Thanked 903 Times in 509 Posts
|
![]()
Don't go yet FLL.I enjoy your skewed view of lifes trials and tribulation.I really do!
__________________
SIKSUKR |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#29 |
Deceased Member
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Gilford, NH
Posts: 2,311
Thanks: 1,070
Thanked 2,054 Times in 497 Posts
|
![]()
I second that... We need the "class clown" ( I mean that in a nice way)
__________________
"Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, if he gets angry he'll be a mile away and barefoot!" unknown Last edited by SteveA; 02-13-2008 at 04:44 PM. |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#30 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: The Lakes, Central NH. and Dallas/Fort Worth TX.
Posts: 3,694
Blog Entries: 3
Thanks: 3,069
Thanked 472 Times in 236 Posts
|
![]()
Yah, stick around FLL, your humor and resolve is unmatched... Ten...four... good buddy?...
I say... come on back?
__________________
trfour Always Remember, The Best Safety Device In The Boat, or on a PWC Snowmobile etc., Is YOU! Safe sledding tips and much more; http://www.snowmobile.org/snowmobiling-safety.html |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#31 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Center Harbor
Posts: 1,049
Thanks: 15
Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts
|
![]()
I put a yard stick in the season's first snowpack, and left it there. I did this in 2 places in the yard that are good indicators of how much snow is on the ground in general. If a place gets too much sunlight makes it read too low, and nearly day-long shade makes it read unnaturally high unless the area you're measuring is meant to represent the middle of a dark forest.
NOAA and various ski patrols out west sometimes use fancier equipment designed to measure several attributes of a snowpack that is several feet deep. UPDATE: There is now a flood warning for Belknap County. Due to the snow that's already fallen in the last several days, there is no place for the rain water to go. Streets and low-lying areas are beginning to flood. The rain is still freezing here... but low clouds and fog (ceiling about 200 feet above ground) show that the warm front is just about upon us. Sudden low clouds and fog are usually present as the warm air finally breaks into ground level. The warm air will melt some of the ice, but at the same time it will add to the flood problem. |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#32 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Moultonboro, NH
Posts: 2,927
Thanks: 476
Thanked 691 Times in 387 Posts
|
![]()
You're a hoot Less, just wouldn't be the same without you. Just never know what's going to be in an FLL post.
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
Bookmarks |
|
|