Winni Weather - Spring 2007

Blue Thunder · 04-11-2007, 04:50 PM

Forget about tonight and tomorrow, what about the storm Sun/Mon that has the potential to be of "epic proportion" (Barry Burbank's words today at Noon).

Rose? CLA? B2B?

Blue Thunder

Resident 2B · 04-11-2007, 06:12 PM

This is nuts!

It is looking like two wet storms and very cold for this time of the year. The question is the track, the tempatures at mid levels and the location and strength of supporting high pressure.

Storm 1 is a Thursday into early Friday event that looks like 7" or so around the lake with more, possibly much more, snow in the mountains. This is the wet, power-outage kind of snow that will also damage the trees. Some trees are still bend from last week's storm and thise are in the most trouble. It looks like the track, mid levels and supporting high are in reasonable place to support snow in the lakes northward.

Storm 2 has the potential to be historic. However, it is still a bot too early to be drawing rain/snow lines. It could be a very big rain event or some of it could be snow. The potential is clearly there, but we need to see what happens with storm 1 first. If storm 1 is weaker than projected, storm 2 could be much worse.

The lake still has a lot of ice on it. My opinion is the snow cover on the ice will hold the ice longer due to the reflection of the sun's warmth. There is a counter effect that the blanket of snow will help the 38 degree water melt the ice. This is a minor effect in my opinion. The reflection of the sun's warmth is a bigger item.

I saw boats in the water at Silver Sands today. The docks closest to Laconia are free of ice and about ten larger cruisers are in. A heavy, wet snow could weigh down these boats, so I hope someone is watching these boats very closely during snow events. Heavy snow is heavy!

R2B

Resident 2B · 04-12-2007, 10:23 AM

Storm 1

There is cold air over us, so as the snow begins to fall the cold air will be pulled down with the snow. This will cause a temp drop and change the mix to all snow. When the precip gets lighter, it may mix, but as soon as it picks up again, it should go back to snow.

Storm 2

This could be a big weather maker. Still too early to draw the rain/snow line, but this is looking like a classic nor'easter with a lot of wind.

It is possible/likely the wind will rip up a lot of the ice. This is most likely to happen if it is a rain event and less likely to happen if it is a snow event. I believe heavy snow on the ice has a dampening effect on the motion of the sheet, unless the ice is very thin.

R2B

CanisLupusArctos · 04-12-2007, 12:47 PM

There is apparently more cold air over us than the computers have been able to measure. My first clue was when I talked to a friend of mine in Wakefield Massachusetts about an hour ago and he said it was sleeting heavily - the radar shows all rain over him. The second clue was this quote from a NWS Forecast Discussion from Gray, ME:

CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING SITUATION. AT THE MOMENT...NO
CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE SHORTLY AS THE
DEPTH OF THE WARM LAYER IS BEING EVALUATED. REPORT OF SLEET IN
KEENE IS PUTTING A MONKEY WRENCH INTO THE FORECAST...AS NO MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING.

So apparently, there is a layer of cold air over us that has managed to go undetected. The models are seeing a lot of data that seems totally out-of-line to them. When they get into non-traditional situations, they are outside their comfort zones and they start making all kinds of wacky calls the way your calculator flashes an "E" when you exceed its capabilities. The models are great but in the grand scheme of things, they are still just oversized calculators and nature likes to make them "flash an E" occasionally. Today is one of those days. Actually, this whole month is.

It's snowing occasionally heavy at Black Cat now. We've only got an inch or two but it's seriously weighing on the pine branches. As R2B mentioned, this is *heavy* snow - weight-wise.

R2B is right about the snow reflecting the sun's radiation. That's the biggest melter at this time of year. Without the sun (or with white to reflect it), our temps in the 30s and low 40s are not going to melt the ice very quickly by themselves.

I'm guessing that the ice between Black Cat and Steamboat is quite thick. This is from checking the weathercam view and daily time lapse - even on the warmer and windier days I have not seen the edge of the ice push back noticeably during the day. It has melted *very* slowly. Therefore I think it's still pretty thick.

About the late-weekend storm... It does look like a history-maker, IF all the ingredients come together as currently forecast. Many forecasters are already using superlatives to describe it. This one would cause problems regardless of rain or snow. Where it snows, it'll be deep snow. Where it rains, it'll be flooding rain. I guess the saving grace would be that anyone on the snow side may go without electricity but their homes would stay dry. The storm's rainy side would also cause power outages but there'd be flooding to go along with it.

There isn't much certain about that storm yet... we're still trying to get through this one first. One thing I am noticing is that forecasters at the NWS are starting to express their thoughts and feelings (bewilderment, excitement, etc.) in their forecast discussions that are normally data-focused and devoid of all emotions and thoughts. When the NWS Technical Forecast Discussions start to sound more like magazine articles and less like notes from a math class, something funky is brewing.

Merrymeeting · 04-12-2007, 02:19 PM

I just keep thinking about many friends who spend a good part of the year training to run the Marathon. What a bummer for them.

jetskier · 04-12-2007, 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

I just keep thinking about many friends who spend a good part of the year training to run the Marathon. What a bummer for them.

Channel 7 indicated last night that the Marathon Committee issued a statement indicating that the Marathon would go on unless the weather was catastrophic. I used to run in the Marathon and rain is not such a bad thing...snow is

Jetskier

Merrymeeting · 04-12-2007, 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jetskier

I used to run in the Marathon and rain is not such a bad thing...snow is

Yup. But I was thinking more about the combination of rain, a brutal headwind, and cold, all being forecast. As you know, a runner can prepare well for any one of those. But all 3? Then it's a matter of surviving rather than running for a personal best.

CanisLupusArctos · 04-15-2007, 11:30 PM

Lights flickering...

Snowed all day but tallied only an inch with plowable amounts just 200-300 feet higher.

Now raining heavily. Winds East with 2 min avg just reached 35 mph, peak gust for the day 51 mph a few mins ago and increasing. Judging by looking out the window i almost think instruments reading low. Storm rain total 0.58 inches so far.

jbess · 04-16-2007, 05:13 AM

Does anyone think this spring will be as bad as last May was with rainfall. Will the Lake get to the high levels that were seen last spring and the flooding down river as a result?

SteveA · 04-16-2007, 05:16 AM

http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/conditions.php

They recorded gusts to 140mph

04-11-2007, 04:50 PM	#1
Blue Thunder Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Eastern MA & Frye Island/Sebago Lake, Maine Posts: 951 Thanks: 252 Thanked 351 Times in 158 Posts	Let's move on Forget about tonight and tomorrow, what about the storm Sun/Mon that has the potential to be of "epic proportion" (Barry Burbank's words today at Noon). Rose? CLA? B2B? Blue Thunder __________________ " Live for today because yesterday is gone and tomorrow may never come"

04-11-2007, 06:12 PM	#2
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,357 Thanks: 994 Thanked 313 Times in 163 Posts	Crazy Weather This is nuts! It is looking like two wet storms and very cold for this time of the year. The question is the track, the tempatures at mid levels and the location and strength of supporting high pressure. Storm 1 is a Thursday into early Friday event that looks like 7" or so around the lake with more, possibly much more, snow in the mountains. This is the wet, power-outage kind of snow that will also damage the trees. Some trees are still bend from last week's storm and thise are in the most trouble. It looks like the track, mid levels and supporting high are in reasonable place to support snow in the lakes northward. Storm 2 has the potential to be historic. However, it is still a bot too early to be drawing rain/snow lines. It could be a very big rain event or some of it could be snow. The potential is clearly there, but we need to see what happens with storm 1 first. If storm 1 is weaker than projected, storm 2 could be much worse. The lake still has a lot of ice on it. My opinion is the snow cover on the ice will hold the ice longer due to the reflection of the sun's warmth. There is a counter effect that the blanket of snow will help the 38 degree water melt the ice. This is a minor effect in my opinion. The reflection of the sun's warmth is a bigger item. I saw boats in the water at Silver Sands today. The docks closest to Laconia are free of ice and about ten larger cruisers are in. A heavy, wet snow could weigh down these boats, so I hope someone is watching these boats very closely during snow events. Heavy snow is heavy! R2B

04-12-2007, 10:23 AM	#3
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,357 Thanks: 994 Thanked 313 Times in 163 Posts	Quick update Storm 1 There is cold air over us, so as the snow begins to fall the cold air will be pulled down with the snow. This will cause a temp drop and change the mix to all snow. When the precip gets lighter, it may mix, but as soon as it picks up again, it should go back to snow. Storm 2 This could be a big weather maker. Still too early to draw the rain/snow line, but this is looking like a classic nor'easter with a lot of wind. It is possible/likely the wind will rip up a lot of the ice. This is most likely to happen if it is a rain event and less likely to happen if it is a snow event. I believe heavy snow on the ice has a dampening effect on the motion of the sheet, unless the ice is very thin. R2B

04-12-2007, 12:47 PM	#4
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	Storms and iceout There is apparently more cold air over us than the computers have been able to measure. My first clue was when I talked to a friend of mine in Wakefield Massachusetts about an hour ago and he said it was sleeting heavily - the radar shows all rain over him. The second clue was this quote from a NWS Forecast Discussion from Gray, ME: CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING SITUATION. AT THE MOMENT...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE SHORTLY AS THE DEPTH OF THE WARM LAYER IS BEING EVALUATED. REPORT OF SLEET IN KEENE IS PUTTING A MONKEY WRENCH INTO THE FORECAST...AS NO MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING. So apparently, there is a layer of cold air over us that has managed to go undetected. The models are seeing a lot of data that seems totally out-of-line to them. When they get into non-traditional situations, they are outside their comfort zones and they start making all kinds of wacky calls the way your calculator flashes an "E" when you exceed its capabilities. The models are great but in the grand scheme of things, they are still just oversized calculators and nature likes to make them "flash an E" occasionally. Today is one of those days. Actually, this whole month is. It's snowing occasionally heavy at Black Cat now. We've only got an inch or two but it's seriously weighing on the pine branches. As R2B mentioned, this is heavy snow - weight-wise. R2B is right about the snow reflecting the sun's radiation. That's the biggest melter at this time of year. Without the sun (or with white to reflect it), our temps in the 30s and low 40s are not going to melt the ice very quickly by themselves. I'm guessing that the ice between Black Cat and Steamboat is quite thick. This is from checking the weathercam view and daily time lapse - even on the warmer and windier days I have not seen the edge of the ice push back noticeably during the day. It has melted very slowly. Therefore I think it's still pretty thick. About the late-weekend storm... It does look like a history-maker, IF all the ingredients come together as currently forecast. Many forecasters are already using superlatives to describe it. This one would cause problems regardless of rain or snow. Where it snows, it'll be deep snow. Where it rains, it'll be flooding rain. I guess the saving grace would be that anyone on the snow side may go without electricity but their homes would stay dry. The storm's rainy side would also cause power outages but there'd be flooding to go along with it. There isn't much certain about that storm yet... we're still trying to get through this one first. One thing I am noticing is that forecasters at the NWS are starting to express their thoughts and feelings (bewilderment, excitement, etc.) in their forecast discussions that are normally data-focused and devoid of all emotions and thoughts. When the NWS Technical Forecast Discussions start to sound more like magazine articles and less like notes from a math class, something funky is brewing.

04-15-2007, 11:30 PM	#8
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	Wild Night Lights flickering... Snowed all day but tallied only an inch with plowable amounts just 200-300 feet higher. Now raining heavily. Winds East with 2 min avg just reached 35 mph, peak gust for the day 51 mph a few mins ago and increasing. Judging by looking out the window i almost think instruments reading low. Storm rain total 0.58 inches so far.

04-12-2007, 02:19 PM	#5
Merrymeeting Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Merrymeeting Lake, New Durham Posts: 2,226 Thanks: 302 Thanked 800 Times in 368 Posts	I just keep thinking about many friends who spend a good part of the year training to run the Marathon. What a bummer for them.

04-16-2007, 05:13 AM	#9
jbess Member Join Date: May 2006 Location: Waterbury, Ct~Laconia, NH Posts: 31 Thanks: 4 Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post	Last Spring? Does anyone think this spring will be as bad as last May was with rainfall. Will the Lake get to the high levels that were seen last spring and the flooding down river as a result?

04-16-2007, 05:16 AM	#10
SteveA Deceased Member Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Gilford, NH Posts: 2,311 Thanks: 1,070 Thanked 2,054 Times in 497 Posts	Check out the conditions on Mount Washington http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/conditions.php They recorded gusts to 140mph __________________ "Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, if he gets angry he'll be a mile away and barefoot!" unknown