Winni Weather - Spring 2007

Just Sold · 04-05-2007, 06:27 AM

Since the snow is heavy will it cause the weaker areas of the ice to crack and speed up the Ice Out?

My trip last weekend around the lake showed that areas like 19 & 20 Mile Bays and Melvin Village still had a frozen snow layer on them and that the ice was still thick so I do not think they will be thawing soon with this snow pack added on.

I got only 6.6" in my yard in Sandown. Heavy wet snow with an ice/slush layer on the bottom.

nj2nh · 04-05-2007, 10:30 AM

seems to have been moved! My husband was hoping to capture a picture of us standing on the dock come June. Like the new view . . . except for that awful white stuff!

Jersey Girl

This'nThat · 04-05-2007, 12:12 PM

The CAM has now moved back to it's original position, as of 1

opm today (5 Apr).

CanisLupusArctos · 04-05-2007, 12:15 PM

Total was 8.5 inches on Black Cat Is. Heavy wet stuff that stuck to the trees and made for some beautiful pics... it's all falling off the trees now though. There isn't much sun today but when it does come out it's melting the snow quickly. The porch and driveway are already bare. The NWS outlook for the long term trend still says colder than normal in NE for the next 14 days. Has anyone done any spring skiing with this storm? I've been hearing that the ski areas got 2 feet! It's such a great time of year to go, when you don't freeze on the chairlift. Or better yet, May skiing, when you can go down the hill in shorts and t-shirt!

SIKSUKR · 04-05-2007, 02:20 PM

I'll be skiing it tomorrow CLP.The whites got about 12-14 inches.The Maine resorts of Sunday River and Sugarloaf got about 2 feet.

Merrymeeting · 04-05-2007, 03:18 PM

I am far from an expert, but I was wondering if this snow cover will actually hasten ice-out?

The water temperature has risen to 38 and is staying there (for now). With the coat of snow above acting as insulation, the ice won't be directly exposed to the cold night temps, and will continually be eaten away from below by the relatively warm water. Yes?

CanisLupusArctos · 04-06-2007, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

I am far from an expert, but I was wondering if this snow cover will actually hasten ice-out?

The water temperature has risen to 38 and is staying there (for now). With the coat of snow above acting as insulation, the ice won't be directly exposed to the cold night temps, and will continually be eaten away from below by the relatively warm water. Yes?

Hmmmm.... that sounds like one of the questions from physics class. Now I wish I'd been drinking more coffee! I'm just as curious as you are. Any ice experts out there?

One thing I have noticed this morning is that the snowcover hasn't melted, like it should be doing at this time of year. The temp went down to the 20s overnight and at noontime it still hasn't bounced back up above freezing. The NWS forecast is the most wintery forecast I've ever seen for April, with a snowflake in each othe the 7 days.

Rose · 04-10-2007, 07:50 AM

Okay, Babes, did you put in a time delay for your dancing to take effect? As of last night's models, we're looking at about a Yuki of snow on Thursday!

SteveA · 04-10-2007, 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rose

Okay, Babes, did you put in a time delay for your dancing to take effect? As of last night's models, we're looking at about a Yuki of snow on Thursday!

Leo is bored stiff... waiting to do his "Spring Thing.".. and Yuki has filed a claim for "Overtime" pay.. (Catnip is not cheap... )

DRH · 04-10-2007, 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rose

Okay, Babes, did you put in a time delay for your dancing to take effect? As of last night's models, we're looking at about a Yuki of snow on Thursday!

The Babes put their snow dancing shoes away last month. I think it's just old Mother Nature doing this to us now!

Island Girl · 04-10-2007, 07:21 PM

Ya caught me!!

Blue Thunder · 04-11-2007, 04:50 PM

Forget about tonight and tomorrow, what about the storm Sun/Mon that has the potential to be of "epic proportion" (Barry Burbank's words today at Noon).

Rose? CLA? B2B?

Blue Thunder

Resident 2B · 04-11-2007, 06:12 PM

This is nuts!

It is looking like two wet storms and very cold for this time of the year. The question is the track, the tempatures at mid levels and the location and strength of supporting high pressure.

Storm 1 is a Thursday into early Friday event that looks like 7" or so around the lake with more, possibly much more, snow in the mountains. This is the wet, power-outage kind of snow that will also damage the trees. Some trees are still bend from last week's storm and thise are in the most trouble. It looks like the track, mid levels and supporting high are in reasonable place to support snow in the lakes northward.

Storm 2 has the potential to be historic. However, it is still a bot too early to be drawing rain/snow lines. It could be a very big rain event or some of it could be snow. The potential is clearly there, but we need to see what happens with storm 1 first. If storm 1 is weaker than projected, storm 2 could be much worse.

The lake still has a lot of ice on it. My opinion is the snow cover on the ice will hold the ice longer due to the reflection of the sun's warmth. There is a counter effect that the blanket of snow will help the 38 degree water melt the ice. This is a minor effect in my opinion. The reflection of the sun's warmth is a bigger item.

I saw boats in the water at Silver Sands today. The docks closest to Laconia are free of ice and about ten larger cruisers are in. A heavy, wet snow could weigh down these boats, so I hope someone is watching these boats very closely during snow events. Heavy snow is heavy!

R2B

Resident 2B · 04-12-2007, 10:23 AM

Storm 1

There is cold air over us, so as the snow begins to fall the cold air will be pulled down with the snow. This will cause a temp drop and change the mix to all snow. When the precip gets lighter, it may mix, but as soon as it picks up again, it should go back to snow.

Storm 2

This could be a big weather maker. Still too early to draw the rain/snow line, but this is looking like a classic nor'easter with a lot of wind.

It is possible/likely the wind will rip up a lot of the ice. This is most likely to happen if it is a rain event and less likely to happen if it is a snow event. I believe heavy snow on the ice has a dampening effect on the motion of the sheet, unless the ice is very thin.

R2B

CanisLupusArctos · 04-12-2007, 12:47 PM

There is apparently more cold air over us than the computers have been able to measure. My first clue was when I talked to a friend of mine in Wakefield Massachusetts about an hour ago and he said it was sleeting heavily - the radar shows all rain over him. The second clue was this quote from a NWS Forecast Discussion from Gray, ME:

CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING SITUATION. AT THE MOMENT...NO
CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE SHORTLY AS THE
DEPTH OF THE WARM LAYER IS BEING EVALUATED. REPORT OF SLEET IN
KEENE IS PUTTING A MONKEY WRENCH INTO THE FORECAST...AS NO MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING.

So apparently, there is a layer of cold air over us that has managed to go undetected. The models are seeing a lot of data that seems totally out-of-line to them. When they get into non-traditional situations, they are outside their comfort zones and they start making all kinds of wacky calls the way your calculator flashes an "E" when you exceed its capabilities. The models are great but in the grand scheme of things, they are still just oversized calculators and nature likes to make them "flash an E" occasionally. Today is one of those days. Actually, this whole month is.

It's snowing occasionally heavy at Black Cat now. We've only got an inch or two but it's seriously weighing on the pine branches. As R2B mentioned, this is *heavy* snow - weight-wise.

R2B is right about the snow reflecting the sun's radiation. That's the biggest melter at this time of year. Without the sun (or with white to reflect it), our temps in the 30s and low 40s are not going to melt the ice very quickly by themselves.

I'm guessing that the ice between Black Cat and Steamboat is quite thick. This is from checking the weathercam view and daily time lapse - even on the warmer and windier days I have not seen the edge of the ice push back noticeably during the day. It has melted *very* slowly. Therefore I think it's still pretty thick.

About the late-weekend storm... It does look like a history-maker, IF all the ingredients come together as currently forecast. Many forecasters are already using superlatives to describe it. This one would cause problems regardless of rain or snow. Where it snows, it'll be deep snow. Where it rains, it'll be flooding rain. I guess the saving grace would be that anyone on the snow side may go without electricity but their homes would stay dry. The storm's rainy side would also cause power outages but there'd be flooding to go along with it.

There isn't much certain about that storm yet... we're still trying to get through this one first. One thing I am noticing is that forecasters at the NWS are starting to express their thoughts and feelings (bewilderment, excitement, etc.) in their forecast discussions that are normally data-focused and devoid of all emotions and thoughts. When the NWS Technical Forecast Discussions start to sound more like magazine articles and less like notes from a math class, something funky is brewing.

Merrymeeting · 04-12-2007, 02:19 PM

I just keep thinking about many friends who spend a good part of the year training to run the Marathon. What a bummer for them.

jetskier · 04-12-2007, 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

I just keep thinking about many friends who spend a good part of the year training to run the Marathon. What a bummer for them.

Channel 7 indicated last night that the Marathon Committee issued a statement indicating that the Marathon would go on unless the weather was catastrophic. I used to run in the Marathon and rain is not such a bad thing...snow is

Jetskier

Merrymeeting · 04-12-2007, 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jetskier

I used to run in the Marathon and rain is not such a bad thing...snow is

Yup. But I was thinking more about the combination of rain, a brutal headwind, and cold, all being forecast. As you know, a runner can prepare well for any one of those. But all 3? Then it's a matter of surviving rather than running for a personal best.

CanisLupusArctos · 04-15-2007, 11:30 PM

Lights flickering...

Snowed all day but tallied only an inch with plowable amounts just 200-300 feet higher.

Now raining heavily. Winds East with 2 min avg just reached 35 mph, peak gust for the day 51 mph a few mins ago and increasing. Judging by looking out the window i almost think instruments reading low. Storm rain total 0.58 inches so far.

04-05-2007, 06:27 AM	#1
Just Sold Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Suncook, NH, but at The Lake at Heart Posts: 2,615 Thanks: 1,083 Thanked 434 Times in 210 Posts	Since the snow is heavy will it cause the weaker areas of the ice to crack and speed up the Ice Out? My trip last weekend around the lake showed that areas like 19 & 20 Mile Bays and Melvin Village still had a frozen snow layer on them and that the ice was still thick so I do not think they will be thawing soon with this snow pack added on. I got only 6.6" in my yard in Sandown. Heavy wet snow with an ice/slush layer on the bottom. __________________ Just Sold At the lake the stress of daily life just melts away. Pro Re Nata

04-05-2007, 10:30 AM	#2
nj2nh Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: NJ Posts: 529 Thanks: 80 Thanked 47 Times in 27 Posts	Alton Web Cam . . . seems to have been moved! My husband was hoping to capture a picture of us standing on the dock come June. Like the new view . . . except for that awful white stuff! Jersey Girl __________________

04-05-2007, 12:12 PM	#3
This'nThat Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 534 Thanks: 19 Thanked 134 Times in 61 Posts	The CAM has now moved back to it's original position, as of 1opm today (5 Apr).

04-05-2007, 12:15 PM	#4
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	Snow total Total was 8.5 inches on Black Cat Is. Heavy wet stuff that stuck to the trees and made for some beautiful pics... it's all falling off the trees now though. There isn't much sun today but when it does come out it's melting the snow quickly. The porch and driveway are already bare. The NWS outlook for the long term trend still says colder than normal in NE for the next 14 days. Has anyone done any spring skiing with this storm? I've been hearing that the ski areas got 2 feet! It's such a great time of year to go, when you don't freeze on the chairlift. Or better yet, May skiing, when you can go down the hill in shorts and t-shirt!

04-05-2007, 02:20 PM	#5
SIKSUKR Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 5,075 Thanks: 215 Thanked 903 Times in 509 Posts	I'll be skiing it tomorrow CLP.The whites got about 12-14 inches.The Maine resorts of Sunday River and Sugarloaf got about 2 feet. __________________ SIKSUKR

04-05-2007, 03:18 PM	#6
Merrymeeting Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Merrymeeting Lake, New Durham Posts: 2,226 Thanks: 302 Thanked 800 Times in 368 Posts	I am far from an expert, but I was wondering if this snow cover will actually hasten ice-out? The water temperature has risen to 38 and is staying there (for now). With the coat of snow above acting as insulation, the ice won't be directly exposed to the cold night temps, and will continually be eaten away from below by the relatively warm water. Yes?

04-10-2007, 07:50 AM	#8
Rose Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 498 Thanks: 62 Thanked 71 Times in 32 Posts	Time delay on the dancing??? Okay, Babes, did you put in a time delay for your dancing to take effect? As of last night's models, we're looking at about a Yuki of snow on Thursday!

04-10-2007, 07:21 PM	#11
Island Girl Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Central MA Posts: 2,352 Thanks: 18 Thanked 535 Times in 179 Posts	Oops! Ya caught me!! __________________ Island Girl ....... Make Lemonade

04-11-2007, 04:50 PM	#12
Blue Thunder Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Eastern MA & Frye Island/Sebago Lake, Maine Posts: 951 Thanks: 252 Thanked 351 Times in 158 Posts	Let's move on Forget about tonight and tomorrow, what about the storm Sun/Mon that has the potential to be of "epic proportion" (Barry Burbank's words today at Noon). Rose? CLA? B2B? Blue Thunder __________________ " Live for today because yesterday is gone and tomorrow may never come"

04-11-2007, 06:12 PM	#13
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,357 Thanks: 994 Thanked 313 Times in 163 Posts	Crazy Weather This is nuts! It is looking like two wet storms and very cold for this time of the year. The question is the track, the tempatures at mid levels and the location and strength of supporting high pressure. Storm 1 is a Thursday into early Friday event that looks like 7" or so around the lake with more, possibly much more, snow in the mountains. This is the wet, power-outage kind of snow that will also damage the trees. Some trees are still bend from last week's storm and thise are in the most trouble. It looks like the track, mid levels and supporting high are in reasonable place to support snow in the lakes northward. Storm 2 has the potential to be historic. However, it is still a bot too early to be drawing rain/snow lines. It could be a very big rain event or some of it could be snow. The potential is clearly there, but we need to see what happens with storm 1 first. If storm 1 is weaker than projected, storm 2 could be much worse. The lake still has a lot of ice on it. My opinion is the snow cover on the ice will hold the ice longer due to the reflection of the sun's warmth. There is a counter effect that the blanket of snow will help the 38 degree water melt the ice. This is a minor effect in my opinion. The reflection of the sun's warmth is a bigger item. I saw boats in the water at Silver Sands today. The docks closest to Laconia are free of ice and about ten larger cruisers are in. A heavy, wet snow could weigh down these boats, so I hope someone is watching these boats very closely during snow events. Heavy snow is heavy! R2B

04-12-2007, 10:23 AM	#14
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,357 Thanks: 994 Thanked 313 Times in 163 Posts	Quick update Storm 1 There is cold air over us, so as the snow begins to fall the cold air will be pulled down with the snow. This will cause a temp drop and change the mix to all snow. When the precip gets lighter, it may mix, but as soon as it picks up again, it should go back to snow. Storm 2 This could be a big weather maker. Still too early to draw the rain/snow line, but this is looking like a classic nor'easter with a lot of wind. It is possible/likely the wind will rip up a lot of the ice. This is most likely to happen if it is a rain event and less likely to happen if it is a snow event. I believe heavy snow on the ice has a dampening effect on the motion of the sheet, unless the ice is very thin. R2B

04-12-2007, 12:47 PM	#15
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	Storms and iceout There is apparently more cold air over us than the computers have been able to measure. My first clue was when I talked to a friend of mine in Wakefield Massachusetts about an hour ago and he said it was sleeting heavily - the radar shows all rain over him. The second clue was this quote from a NWS Forecast Discussion from Gray, ME: CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING SITUATION. AT THE MOMENT...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE SHORTLY AS THE DEPTH OF THE WARM LAYER IS BEING EVALUATED. REPORT OF SLEET IN KEENE IS PUTTING A MONKEY WRENCH INTO THE FORECAST...AS NO MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING. So apparently, there is a layer of cold air over us that has managed to go undetected. The models are seeing a lot of data that seems totally out-of-line to them. When they get into non-traditional situations, they are outside their comfort zones and they start making all kinds of wacky calls the way your calculator flashes an "E" when you exceed its capabilities. The models are great but in the grand scheme of things, they are still just oversized calculators and nature likes to make them "flash an E" occasionally. Today is one of those days. Actually, this whole month is. It's snowing occasionally heavy at Black Cat now. We've only got an inch or two but it's seriously weighing on the pine branches. As R2B mentioned, this is heavy snow - weight-wise. R2B is right about the snow reflecting the sun's radiation. That's the biggest melter at this time of year. Without the sun (or with white to reflect it), our temps in the 30s and low 40s are not going to melt the ice very quickly by themselves. I'm guessing that the ice between Black Cat and Steamboat is quite thick. This is from checking the weathercam view and daily time lapse - even on the warmer and windier days I have not seen the edge of the ice push back noticeably during the day. It has melted very slowly. Therefore I think it's still pretty thick. About the late-weekend storm... It does look like a history-maker, IF all the ingredients come together as currently forecast. Many forecasters are already using superlatives to describe it. This one would cause problems regardless of rain or snow. Where it snows, it'll be deep snow. Where it rains, it'll be flooding rain. I guess the saving grace would be that anyone on the snow side may go without electricity but their homes would stay dry. The storm's rainy side would also cause power outages but there'd be flooding to go along with it. There isn't much certain about that storm yet... we're still trying to get through this one first. One thing I am noticing is that forecasters at the NWS are starting to express their thoughts and feelings (bewilderment, excitement, etc.) in their forecast discussions that are normally data-focused and devoid of all emotions and thoughts. When the NWS Technical Forecast Discussions start to sound more like magazine articles and less like notes from a math class, something funky is brewing.

04-12-2007, 02:19 PM	#16
Merrymeeting Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Merrymeeting Lake, New Durham Posts: 2,226 Thanks: 302 Thanked 800 Times in 368 Posts	I just keep thinking about many friends who spend a good part of the year training to run the Marathon. What a bummer for them.

04-15-2007, 11:30 PM	#19
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	Wild Night Lights flickering... Snowed all day but tallied only an inch with plowable amounts just 200-300 feet higher. Now raining heavily. Winds East with 2 min avg just reached 35 mph, peak gust for the day 51 mph a few mins ago and increasing. Judging by looking out the window i almost think instruments reading low. Storm rain total 0.58 inches so far.