Winni Weather - Spring 2007

[SteveA]

From. www.smokeymynastro.com
Constellation Leo the Lion, which dominates the center of the Spring sky. {Trace out Leo, point out the stars Regulus & Denebola} This is a great constellation that looks very much like what it is supposed to be. Some star charts show Leo walking, but to me the stars powerfully suggest the Big Cat is in a reclining position. His head is formed by a backward question mark, an asterism that is commonly called The Sickle. The star to the right of Regulus is his forepaw, and the bright triangle to the left is the lion's rear haunch.

As luck (fate?) would have it, this past weekend, we adopted another cat from the Humane Society. He is a 14 year old that had to be surrendered by his owners due to a relocation. His name... you can guess is LEO. (Really, even I couldn't make that up!)

CLA.. I'll figure out a way to get Leo into your Spring thread. hopefully he'll add a little comic relief.



SteveA

[CanisLupusArctos]

Well, how can the talent scouts resist a face like that? The suits are willing to give Leo 7 catnip hits per week with potential for advancement to 12 hits after some experience. They're cautious, however, because they don't want to see him shave himself and check into rehab.

I'm looking forward to seeing how you work Leo into the thread! In the meantime it looks like Yuki may not be done for the season! He may have some measuring to do later Friday or Saturday, as the weather pattern changes back to a more winter-like scenario (jet stream dip in the east.) This one would have a fair amount of rain in addition to any snow... and we all know what cats think of water.

How did the cats (or anyone else's cats) fare in the incredibly low humidity (prime static electricity conditions) we had this past week? My cat used to hate it when I zapped him... he would RUN whenever he saw me scuffing across the floor! But if conditions were super-dry, his standing-up fur would make him look rather alien and sometimes he'd zap himself.

UPDATE at 7:30 p.m. Black Cat Island hit 50 degrees today, its warmest temperature since the record of 60 degrees on January 6. For those living near rivers in the area, monitor weather forecasts for warnings relating to ice jams. It is becoming an issue in southern Vermont where a flood watch is now in effect, and could become an issue here if the snow melts too fast or if rain falls too hard over the next few days. Don't get too accustomed to this springlike weather - winter will not be going down with out some battles and the first is likely to happen this weekend. A return to colder temps would be good news for the rivers, slowing the melting process and thus decreasing the chance of ice jams.

[Blue Thunder]

CLA, R2B, and Rose,

What are the "real" prospects for the hype that is beginning for the Friday-Saturday time frame? Ah, yes it's still March now isn't it??

Here is the latest CPC/NCEP outlook:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...ts/threats.gif

Blue Thunder

[Rose]

Originally Posted by Blue Thunder

What are the "real" prospects for the hype that is beginning for the Friday-Saturday time frame? Ah, yes it's still March now isn't it??

The long-range US model has been hinting at a some snow for the end of the week for a while. I stopped looking at data for a couple of days and was surprised this morning to see 6-8 inches for a large area of New England (including the lakes) Friday night to Saturday night. The forecast discussion out of the NWS in Taunton, MA states the European and UK models are coming into concensus with the US model, while the Canadian model has less snow/more rain.

[CanisLupusArctos]

The prospects of a large storm in *any* given March are very good. One of this nation's strongest and farthest-reaching winter storms in history occurred on the east coast in March 1993 - the "Superstorm." What typically happens this month is that springtime starts surging northward in the form of warmth and moisture, while the cold air is still trying to flow south out of Canada. When the two meet, it's like opening the door from your hot shower stall on a cold morning while the water's running full blast - steam everywhere. Same thing happens in nature but on a larger scale.

This week we have warm air surging into the area but the cold we had from January until last week is still nearby. Temps in Manitoba and Saskatchewan are still at the extremely cold levels we had last week. With that said, we're poised for several battles before spring finally wins out... and this weekend is starting to look like it'll be the first.

As for rain / snow amounts, it becomes even harder to predict at this time of year because on one side of any given storm you could have temps in the 60s and 70s while on the other it could be in the teens and 20s. The track of the storm is critical to who gets which side, and some places see both. Even in the all-snow belt of any March storm there are usually wild variations in amounts due to some areas getting a warmer, wetter snow while others get a colder, powdery snow.

Timing is also more critical for this weekend's storm than with those we saw in the winter, because in order to give us a dumping of snow it has to develop at exactly the right time while the cold air replaces the warm air over us at exactly the right time, and then the storm has to move on exactly the right track.

[rander7823]

Okay weatherbuffs

From Mid-Dec to Mid Jan temps were above normal and from Mid-Jan to a week or so ago they were below.....Has everything averaged out yet or are the glaciers still melting?

[CanisLupusArctos]

A flood watch is now in effect for the lakes region for Thursday. This is for the potential of river flooding due to ice jams. Currently the rivers are mostly frozen but the warm temperatures (which hit 55 on the island today!) and a good dose of rain on the way have the potential to make the rivers rise... lifting their ice and carrying it downstream where it may dam up and cause flooding.

In addition, another powerful northeaster is looking more likely for Friday and Saturday. Stay tuned to weather forecasts if you have plans for those days.

Originally Posted by rander7823

Okay weatherbuffs

From Mid-Dec to Mid Jan temps were above normal and from Mid-Jan to a week or so ago they were below.....Has everything averaged out yet or are the glaciers still melting?

The nearest climate records for comparison are from Concord Airport. For the winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) the temperature averages are:

December 2006: 33.9 F (normal 25.9)
January 2007: 25.5 F (normal 20.1)
February 2007: 18.8 F (normal 23.3)

OVERALL: 26.1 F (normal 23.1)

Therefore, believe it or not, the winter averaged out 3 degrees above normal in Concord. Many other New England locations also averaged out 2 or 3 degrees above normal for winter 2006-07. Most of this is due to the fact that the temperatures for the first half of the winter were above normal to a much greater degree than the temps of the second half were below normal. In plain English, "Way above normal + slightly below normal = slightly above normal."

The breakdown of the extreme warmth of the first half of the winter coincides with the breakdown of the El Nino that we had since November. The cold air had been pooling to our north all along, but could not make any moves southward until the pattern changed, and it is likely that El Nino was responsible for that pattern.

The glaciers are still melting. Climate change is different from weather change. Think of *weather* as "What happened on Wall Street this month," while *climate* is "What has your stock done over the past 30 years." The climate has been slowly warming (the stock of the top corporations is worth more than it was 30 years ago) while the weather has had its mood swings (Dot-com crashes and real estate spikes).

[Resident 2B]

I do not know where to put this, on the CLA's Winter Thread or on his new Spring Thread. I decided to put it here because this is really a spring type of storm that will likely have a variety of conditions depending on what it does and where you live.

The next few days will be stormy. That is the only safe statement at this time. There are all kinds of complications at this time of the year with storms. CLA pointed this out in a recent post.

Today we have a strong, secondary cold front crossing the area with rain and possibly some snow in front of it. However, the real news is what does this front do after it passes our area, and even more importantly, what forms on the front if it stalls to our south.

It looks like the front will stall to our south, and that two low pressure areas will form on it and move up. This time of year there is plenty of energy around due to air mass contrasts. This is clearly the case today with impressive warm and cold air masses in the area. So, the stage is set for a significat storm, somewhere.

The biggest questions are, exactly where will the storm or storms go, how much cold air gets pulled down from Canada during these events and how much moisture will there be with the storm.

There is plenty of moisture available, so there will be a lot of something, and perhaps a lot of mixing. If one was to go with the best track for snow, with the biggest draw of the cold air, this could be an impressive storm for the Lakes Region. However, I think the track will be a bit too far south and east for this to happen.

There is a lot a variety in the forecast by the "Big Houses", and from what I have read, significant variety of opinions within the "Big Houses". NWS looks to me to be on the fence right now. This is perhaps the best place to be right now. AccuWeather's official forecast has a foot of snow or more in our area, but there are significantly different opinions ranging from a few inches to a few feet just within their top forecasters.

As with any spring type of storm, anything and everything could happen. Pay close attention to the weather forecasts during the next 36 hours as things could really change.

This should be interesting!

R2B

[Resident 2B]

Things are swinging towards a heavy snowfall!

The track will be "right" for a lot of snow in the lakes area and the storm has a lot of moisture. Right now, it looks like a big one.

Again, time will tell!

R2B

[Rose]

The numbers I'm getting from the 2 pm US model runs range from 6 to 12 inches of snow. I'm leaning toward the lower end of that range...from the forecasted track of the storm, I just think there will be too much warm air at upper levels for the higher amounts. I'll be keeping an eye on the wind direction at Mount Washington...it'll let me know when the warmer air is moving in at upper levels.

And to answer your question a little late, Chipj29, I do belong to Easternuswx, but I've never posted and rarely go there anymore.

[WINDinmySOCKIES]

will be interesting to see what this storm does. Here in PA two different local news reports are giving two different stories. Right now, it is sleeting, which some expect it to do all day, while one report says when the second storm comes we can expect 5-8 inches. I don't think this is doing to happen. It was 70 yesterday, and 73 the day before. AHHH, MARCH!!
I do think though that with continued global warming, we will see more and more wild weather shifts.

[SteveA]

Leo has taken up the watch on the herb garden seedlings. You can tell by the look on his face he isn't happy with the weather forecasts from you guys, or the fact we don't have any catnip started yet.



Spring looks like it's going to go on hold for a bit!

[Resident 2B]

SteveA,

It looks to me like Leo is wondering why you put the dividers in the litter box.

He looks like a great cat. You folks are wonderful adopting animals in need.

Still a tough and interesting weather situation. Two schools of thought exist. Storm track that looked to be too far south yesterday morning has shifted west, meaning more juice and more mixing for us. I still think the storm will be east of the current track which would get us on the high end of the NWS range. That said, Rose has a valid point with her warmer solution. I will be watching the Mt. Washington weather as well, especially the reports along the auto road, which is like having on-line, real-time soundings.

Last night's GFS hits us hard, if that model is correct. It tends to be better this time of the year than in mid-winter or mid-summer. Time will tell!

Enjoy the weather and the cats!

R2B

Best regards,

R2B

[Just Sold]

As of right now very fine snow is falling here in S. NH. I have to leave the home office soon and I will see how it is then for driving. At least the brook behind my place has gone down quite a bit leaving an ice rim where it overflowed yesterday.

Spring and ice out is coming all be it is being delayed a bit!

[nj2nh]

Okay, so technically this isn't NH weather. We have about five inches of the white stuff here on the ground in northern NJ with lots more to come. This is, not unremarkably, the most snow we have had all season.

And with spring around the corner, this surprises us???

Jersey Girl

[gtxrider]

Remember the Easter Snow in 1970 here in NJ. It can snow anytime here in NJ.

I hope the lake gets a good coating!

[ghfromaltonbay]

[QUOTE=gtxrider]Remember the Easter Snow in 1970 here in NJ. It can snow anytime here in NJ.

Ah yes, the famous blizzard of Easter 1970. That year Easter was on March 29th. We had more than a foot of snow and the next day we had a snow day from school! I remember this storm for 2 reasons:

1) We went to a wedding in the blizzard - our normal 45 minute ride to the church took about 90 minutes with frequent stops to clean off the wipers. Several guests never made it.

2) I had an exam scheduled for 1st period Senior English class that Monday (yes our teacher was a sadist scheduling an exam the day after Easter) and HA! HA! on Emma Farrell (said sadist) - that Monday was the 1 and only snow day my whole senior year.

[CanisLupusArctos]

At 400 pm the snow is visible over Rattlesnake Island's summit and has completely hidden Gunstock from view. Dollar Island is now clearly discernable from Jolly Island. The snow is rapidly moving in, and we'll see first flakes here at Black Cat within a few minutes.

The temperature continues to fall slowly, and the dewpoint has also been dropping off all day. Evaporative cooling is likely going to chill the air a bit more as the precip gets underway.

I haven't had time to look at the models (ahhh, work... but one must pay bills) but I noticed the Weather Channel just upped their forecast amounts for us, from "8 to 12 inches" this morning to "A foot or more" now. New England Cable News has us in the 15-inch belt. Perhaps there's been a change in the models? The trend in forecasts seems to more snow, with each new forecast.

This storm could be a sign of things to come, as one of this morning's news stories on NBC-Today was NOAA's announcement that the El Nino responsible for our warm weather early in the winter broke down, allowing the cold February... and has now become a La Nina pattern which favors lots of storms in the Atlantic.

MDC

[SteveA]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

SteveA,

It looks to me like Leo is wondering why you put the dividers in the litter box.

He looks like a great cat. You folks are wonderful adopting animals in need.

Thanks R2B,

I'll bet he was thinking exactly that... some of these "pet" actors can be hard to work with!

We really enjoy our cat "Hobby"... and I really enjoy these threads.

[jbess]

Hard to believe, two days ago, it was 70* here in CT. Now look!

[nj2nh]

I was living in Massachusetts in 1970 (and was only 10 - hehe) so I don't remember that one.

I was in Jersey for the blizzard in March of 1993 and remember THAT one distinctly. When I went to work in Newark a couple of days later, the normally four lane road into the downtown area was only two lanes. The 40 minute drive took 2 hours. That was way before I had a cell phone so I just had to sit there and wait. Talk about late for work.

I also remember vividly the blizzard of '78. Missed an entire week of my senior year. After graduation, the rest of the classes still had a week of school. It was great - we didn't even have to take final exams.

Our beautiful snow has turned into sleet. Nothing left on the trees. Ah, well, it was nice while it lasted.

Jersey Girl (formerly of SE Massachusetts)

[CanisLupusArctos]

7:30 pm finds it snowing heavily over the lake, and the temp continues to fall. It's currently 18. Snow began at 4:30 pm on Black Cat and within 90 minutes visibility was 1/4 mile with the first inch already on the ground.

Lots of roads are becoming impassable due to multiple accidents (as announced on radio) and there are a few reports of inclines and on-ramps that have become so icy that cars can't make it up them. What's happened is that the roads were warm from the last few days, and the first hour of snow melted on them. It has now frozen, with snow accumulating on top of the ice.

Great news is that this should make for some fantastic spring skiing!

Photos from 6 p.m....

[michael c]

I am looking out my window and yesterday the ice looked VERY unsafe and now ,with the considerably lower temps, I think people will unfortunately feel safe to travel on the ice again ..I fear that it is not a question of "if " but " when " is someone gonna go through the ice on a sled ...the damage done to the ice 2 days ago was considerable ,as it got up to 66 degrees here and the ice looked rotten . No doubt it was safer than it looked ,but I worry .
Today ,1/4 mile from the channel the first snow flake appeared at 4:01 pm and as of now ,We have about 2 + inches

Please be careful !!!

[fatlazyless]

Earlier today, there were a couple of sleds and atv's out by the southern end of Bear Island. Also this morning, the snow condition on the western end of the Sandwich Notch Rd looked good enough for a sled. It's a sno-mo and dog sled trail of maybe 12 miles running from N Sandwich to Thornton through a newly designated wilderness area. Step two feet off the road and you are in a US Forest Sevice protected wilderness area of the southern White Mt National Forest, thanks in part to Senator Gregg's good efforts. Way to go, Senator! And on a good day, just an easy two hour, 125 mile ride from the Massachusetts State House.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by michael clayton

I am looking out my window and yesterday the ice looked VERY unsafe and now ,with the considerably lower temps, I think people will unfortunately feel safe to travel on the ice again ..I fear that it is not a question of "if " but " when " is someone gonna go through the ice on a sled ...the damage done to the ice 2 days ago was considerable ,as it got up to 66 degrees here and the ice looked rotten . No doubt it was safer than it looked ,but I worry .
Today ,1/4 mile from the channel the first snow flake appeared at 4:01 pm and as of now ,We have about 2 + inches

Please be careful !!!

The ice looked rotten from here too... but it was just the snowpack on top of the ice that melted. Underneath that slush is still a good thick layer of solid ice that's going to take more than a couple warm days to melt... and that will be a slower process now that all the slush has frozen solid a couple inches thick. Just a couple days ago the WeatherCam captured a shot of a pickup truck towing a Bobhouse north of Bear Island... and that was on one of the 50-degree days.

You are right, though... sooner or later it will be deceptive. Right now the only weak spots I'm noticing are around rocks, which absorb the sun's heat, and the open areas created by dock bubblers are growing.