Winni Weather - winter 2007

[CanisLupusArctos]

You're right... Friday's high on Black Cat was just 2 degrees - many notches lower than the +10 they were forecasting. NWS-Gray has just admitted their conservatism in the forecast discussion by deviating from "warmer" computer model guidance for tonight's temps. They're now predicting -10 for Portland and a few places -30 in the mountains. Mount Washington won't be one of them - with radiational cooling taking place, the summit is -7, warmer than the valley. The NWS has also mentioned clouds moving in by morning, which would put a stop to any radiational cooling.

Tonight we've been down to -5 but we've been level at -2 since 2200. When I drove through Center Harbor earlier the MVSB clock said -7. I think the island is getting "warmed" by the lake again. The water underneath the ice is undoubtedly giving up some heat, allowing the ice to thicken.

Check out the imagery tonight. On tonight's temperature map, we have negative double-digits all to the NW of here in VT and upstate NY. The IR Sattelite pic shows the NW wind condensing over the warmer ocean waters.

BTW I'm still reading some of those articles posted about the physics of ice. Very interesting stuff! Makes me want to go back to college. Water is such a wierd substance, and that statement is just the tip of the iceberg. (*rim-shot*)

[CanisLupusArctos]

After flurrying all day Saturday and amounting to only a Trace, the overnight hours produced some measureable snow at Black Cat Island - a whopping 0.1 inch. The season's biggest snowfall to date remains the 4-incher on the 20th, which the NWS-Gray told me was a lake effect snow band from Lake Erie that survived the long trip and became enhanced by lift provided by the mountains behind Center Harbor as it moved in from the west. We've yet to see a phasing of the northern and southern jet streams close enough to the coast to bring us a good old-fashioned NH snowstorm, but little shots of snow keep coming as the moisture-starved systems dive out of Canada now that winter is here. Those mountains behind Center Harbor are certainly a help in this particular location.

[Resident 2B]

Although it does look like the northern and southern jets will be rather flat and therefore unable to hook-up for at least the next seven days, which means no real rain or snow storms, there is winter weather in-store for the lakes region during the next ten days.

It looks like there is a lot of deep, cold air to the west of Hudson Bay and the general flow is right in our direction. This should mean fair weather with daytime highs below freezing and night time lows in the single numbers for the next several days starting tonight.

It should warm up a little towards the end of this week, but still staying below freezing for most of the time. It then gets cold again at the end of next weekend for another three or four days.

All of this is great news for those that are involved in ice related lake activities and should allow for reasonably safe ice conditions to develop during the next week. Ice conditions vary significantly with water flow, so everyone should know what they are doing before getting out on the ice.

From what I see, the next chance for any real snow is next Sunday night or Monday, the first weekend in February. It looks like any phasing of the jets is at least a week away, so the snow lovers will remain unhappy for now.

As with all weather forecasts, time will tell!

R2B

[HomeWood]

Thanks Resident. I want snow for trail riding, but I'll take safer ice first and foremost.

[CanisLupusArctos]

R2B, excellent point. I've seen relatively new lake ice get ruined by snowpack insulating it. I think it's better for the icepack when the snow comes in the form of a major Nor'Easter whose wind creates alternating snow-free and drifted spots out there.

The Weather Channel is now showing "Snow and Wind" for our Friday, and Todd Gutner on WCSH-6 Portland just said he's watching for an Alberta clipper on Thursday followed by possible Low coming up the east coast on Friday but I haven't had time to check the models. What do you (or anyone else) see for that day?

Weather fans may enjoy the new time-lapse feature on my web cam. It goes back about 4.5 hours in 3-minute increments. At blackcatnh.com, click on "previous images" and then click the timelapse link in the upper right. If you check it before 11 a.m., the timelapse will reach into "yesterday" since the camera doesn't take pictures at night.

[Resident 2B]

CLA,

I just spent an hour looking at three models, the GFS, the European and the UK Met. Of the three, the UK Met is strongest in suggesting a storm effecting our area on Friday, Feb 2 a/k/a Ground Hog Day. If the UK Met is right, the low pressure area currently part of the "block" off the west coast would drift to the southeast, picks-up gulf moisture, heads northnortheastward up the coast, and phases with the cold air from the northern jet. This clearly results in a snow storm for everyone within 200 miles west of the storm track, where we would be.

However, the other two models do not completely agree. The European brings two storms close together one a bit north of us and one well south of us, with not much snow for us. The GFS holds onto the the Rex Block off the west coast and keeps the small clippers, some with no moisture, coming at us every 36 to 48 hours.

At times like this, we should look for what happens to the area of significant difference between the models and see what it does in the next 24 to 36 hours. That should tell us what model is most likely correct. In this case if the upper level low off the west coast starts to move to the southeast, then the UK Met would be right, and we should get a good storm on Friday. So, until something happens out west, it is a toss-up as to what model to follow and too early to forecast a storm. I think that is why the public forecasts hint at a poosbility of something, without commiting to anything.

There might be some "folklore danger" if we get a strom on Ground Hog Day. It has been said that if the ground hog does not see his (or her) shadow the morning of Ground Hog Day, winter will end early. Since it just started, I do not think it will end early. Following that reasoning, it would have to be sunny on Friday , not stormy, making the GFS model correct. Does this mean GFS stands for Groundhog Forecasting System?

Bottom line is the models are all over the place and it is too early to tell about any possible storm on Friday. I will look at the runs later today and early tomorrow and see what develops.

Let me know if you see it differently.

R2B

[gtxrider]

Good movie but as weather predictors, I don't trust rodents.

Come on snow!!!!! We had a bit here and without the help of a weasel.

"I got you babe....."

[CanisLupusArctos]

Hey folks, this is Winnitawney Phil, and I am a groundhog who has taken over Mike's computer. I'm offended and I'm going to join forces with those poor cavemen that Geico just won't stop dissin.' I have a close cousin who's a famous weather forecaster in Pennsylvania and my uncle recently appeared in a sleeping pill commercial with former President Abraham Lincoln! I'm so much more than just a weasel!

Mike "CLA" here again. I just chased a groundhog away from my computer with a flashlight. Big shadow on the wall. I don't think he'll be back for at least 8-10 weeks. It is 7 degrees and dropping steadily out there. Topped out at 20 on the Island today. Watched Gunstock's snow guns going full-force all day. Peak wind of 17 (North) around noon. Still no time to look at the models (setting up a new wx station, and taking much longer in the cold) so thank you R2B for the briefing. Joe Cupo on Ch. 6 was on at 11, still flip-flopping on the issues regarding Friday. He seems to think it'll form but is questioning a coast-hugger vs. farther out to sea. If it's still a good possibility tomorrow I'll definitely take a look at the models.

[Weirs guy]

I'm not the weather nut some of you are, but I do appreciate the work you guys are doing. Keep it up!

Now, hows that storm on Friday shaping up?

[CanisLupusArctos]

No need to be a weather nut to comment here. Just share what you see/measure, offer what you know, ask about what you don't know, and remind people like me not to talk too technical without explaining in plain english along the way.

The Friday storm appears to be materializing - but once again I haven't seen the models yet. I'm hoping to take a look this afternoon.

This morning I awoke to Ch-6 Portland calling it "Snow Likely" on Friday (upped from yesterday's "Snow possible.") The Weather Channel made the same kind of wording change. In weather forecasting, wording is everything and the National Weather Service actually has official criteria for using certain words (and phrases) in public forecasts, to the point where they sound redundant. Example: "Snow likely in the morning, followed by a chance of snow in the afternoon." Such wording means the odds favor morning snow over afternoon snow, although both could end up happening.

Weather forecasting is a lot like betting - probability and chances play a huge roll. Being experienced definitely helps, but even champion poker players lose high stakes once in a while.

[Resident 2B]

It is looking more and more like we will get a fairly good snow on Friday. It looks like the UK Met model mentioned yesterday was more "correct" than the other models and now the other models are coming into some agreement with the UK Met.

So, now the question becomes timing, track and storm intensity.

It looks like the timing is still a question mark, but Friday looks like the day. How early or how late on Friday is the question. The track looks like a "coast hugger" right now. This track usually means a mixture of snow and rain along the coast with all snow in the lakes and mountains. The storm track is very important and still a bit of a question. As far as intensity, there is still some uncertainty, but it is shaping up to be a moderate storm with 0.5 to 1.0 inch of liquid. If the ratio of snow to liquid is 10:1, it looks to me like 5" to 10" in the lakes region.

It is still three days away, so things can still change, but that is what it looks like to me today. This is all based on computer models, and they are still more art than science.

In the mean time, tonight's clipper will not bring the lakes region much snow, but it looks like a rapid development once it hits the Atlantic moisture with around 6" on light snow on Cape Cod. They will get more snow tonight than they get on Friday.

It will remain cold for the foreseeable future continuing the "ice build". Good news for most people.

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

YYYYYeeeesss!! Yes! Yes! (Sorry.... *deep breath*) It's been almost a year since I last saw a decent snowfall...

Time to look at those models. Oh wait - not yet. Need to fix the new heater I installed in my rain gauge last night. I must remember not to start such projects when cold and more tired than I admit.

[SIKSUKR]

Soory guys,but as a self proclaimed weather nut myself,forcasting snowfall in NE more than a day in advance is like throwing darts at the wall.It's such a fine line whether we have a substantial snowfall in the northeast and where it will fall.You can have all the computer models you want,which I will say can pretty accurately predict there will be a storm forming.But exactly what track and what amounts will fall where is still a pure guess until less than 8 hours prior.I am bonifide snow lover and have watched this stuff for longer than some of you have been alive.Too often I have got myself angered over forecasted snowfall that didn't materialize.I know the process is getting better but we are still a long way a way from predicting snowfall amounts in NE many days before.That being said,I still love to here what you guys are discussing about the models.Having only had about 2-3 inches here in Bedford this year so far,all I'm asking is,Please please please let it snow!

[Resident 2B]

Siksukr and all others,

I never said that forecast models were accurate, so I agree with your opinion. However, they are interesting to review and to some degree projections can be made from them. Exact storm tracks, percise storm intensity and P-type are a real challange for today's models and these variables are so important to what happens during winter storms here in New England.

That said, it is looking like the storm on Firday will effect the Lakes Region, but the snowfall is likely to be on the lower side of my 5"to 10" estimate made yesterday. Today I would guess it will be around 6". Two reasons why: no high pressure area in place to pump in the cold air while the storm is around, and the storm looks to be developing too late and too far away from us to bring snow at the top end of yesterday's estimate. However, I still think it will be within the range served up yesterday.

It will get very cold after the storm passes. The storm will intensify northeast of us and will act as a big pump bringing down some very cold air and we could go well below zero on Sunday and Monday nights.

Again, this is based upon models and we seem to be in agreement that the models are far from perfect.

On the ground hog front, it looks like the local ground hog will not see his shadow on Friday. Based upon folklore, that means an early ice-out as winter will end soon. This is in strong contrast with the weather models that are suggesting a cold and stormy 30 days ahead. We do not seem to be able to get the rodent and the models on the same page.

Time will tell!

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

Looks like the storm is missing us but more cold on the way. Good to see those ski areas 85-99% open now, with manmade snow from all the cold, and lots of natural snow from upsloping winds in the mountains every time a wave passes.

Looks like some record overnight lows and record low maxes for the daytime Mon-Wed.

A note on those models - one time I interviewed a Plymouth State University meteorology prof. for an article (now posted on http://www.thesilentforest.com/journ...tonweather.htm)
in which he told me that while the models have grown significantly since the 1980s and are still increasing in accuracy as more data (including historical) gets put into them, they can never be perfect without being programmed with measurements for all levels of the atmosphere on the first day of earth's existence, or as he called it "the initial state of the atmosphere." He told me that for as long as the initial state of the atmosphere remains unknown to us, future states of the atmosphere will never be predictable with 100% accuracy. That was as simple as he could put it - he said the full explanation gets into chaos theory and stuff like that.

[SIKSUKR]

The intent of my post was not to discredit anyone posting here or any weather service.I'm just stating what I think is in fact the almost impossible task of estimating snowfall amounts in certain locations in NE days in advance.I still enjoy watching forecasting,if for nothing else to see how it turns out.As far as snowfall amounts in the Lakes region,I would love to see the 6 inches your forecasting but as I watch this morning,that looks unlikely.I hope I'm wrong.

[Resident 2B]

Although the models looked good for those of us who really like the snow, it is now a long shot, at best, for any moderate storm tomorrow. So, you do not need to spend any time today tuning up the snow blower.

The will be cold later this weekend and early next week. In addition, there is a lot of energy around and with the contrast in temperatures between the cold air and the relatively warm ocean, the area looks ripe for a storm. However, they just do not seem to be forming in an area that gives us the snow most of us want.

So the model driven forecast from earlier this week looks to be wrong, but there is potential for storms in the next 10 days, but nothing that can be specifically forecasted.

The weather news for the area will be the cold air for now.

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by SIKSUKR

I'm just stating what I think is in fact the almost impossible task of estimating snowfall amounts in certain locations in NE days in advance.

How right you are! New England has the most unpredictable weather in the world. While most places get their weather from one or two directions all the time, we're a rare spot in the fact that THREE major storm tracks intersect here, and a fourth one sometimes jumps into the action when storms decide to "retrograde" -- back in off the ocean instead of moving out normally ("The Perfect Storm" of 1991 did that.) We can get air masses originating from the North Pole, the Gulf of Mexico, the US Continent, and the North Atlantic - all in one day.

For that reason there is a study called AIRMAP which is run by UNH and supported by NOAA which is attempting to measure New Engand's patterns for the purpose of making a New England weather model (and air quality.) There are several AIRMAP sites in a South-North line, ascending in elevation, and one of them is at Castle Springs in Moultonborough.

Even this model, however, will never be perfect. Aside from needing "The initial state of the earth's atmosphere", all models also would need to account for the very TINY details that make a huge imact on the weather - like farm fields creating less friction on a storm system than buildings. Even if they did program that info into the models, what would happen when developers bought the fields? Now the multi-trillion dollar super-high resolution weather model needs to be updated by local planning boards (maybe not literally, but you get the point.)

Speaking of models, the latest run seems to be trending tomorrow's snow farther offshore... *sob*

Well at least it still looks like record cold for next week to thicken the ice and help make more snow at the ski areas. R2B the nice thing about being primed for a storm like this is that sooner or later, something's gotta give! Or at least that's how I like to think.

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

R2B the nice thing about being primed for a storm like this is that sooner or later, something's gotta give! Or at least that's how I like to think.

The gun is loaded and it is aimed. Mother Nature just does not want to pull the trigger, for some unknown reason.

You are correct! Sooner or later.......

Enjoy the cold and ice. It is much better than last year.

R2B