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06-29-2023, 05:57 AM | #1 |
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Airbnb Collapse & The Lakes Region?
I've been reading about the crumbling profits of Airbnbs in some places around the country (recent Twitter thread link below) and am wondering if we'll see something similar happen in the LR.
I don't have any experience with Airbnbs but know that they've been contentious in the past given they reduce inventory for long-term owners and are sometimes part of the short-term renter discussion. My guess is that the places struggling are those that also have alternatives that are offering less-expensive or better options or that are no longer big travel draws, neither of which seem to apply to the LR, but I'd certainly rather see long-term resident/neighborhood investment than for profit. Thoughts? https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/statu...TpcG7BTEQ&s=19 Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk |
06-29-2023, 07:06 AM | #2 |
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Thoughts. I have yet to find a ABB that is less expensive then standard hotels once you factor in all costs associated with your stay.
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06-29-2023, 07:38 AM | #3 |
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I think AirBNB will be around in places like the Lakes Region for the long term. I also think more backlash/changes are coming with increased regulations against those who are buying property for short term rentals.
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06-29-2023, 07:39 AM | #4 | |
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IMHO, the only time an AirBnb works out is when it is a larger family type group. Woodsy
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06-29-2023, 07:42 AM | #5 | |
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06-29-2023, 08:02 AM | #6 |
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Clean sheets and free breakfast weigh into my calculations. Also, safety is plays into it.
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06-29-2023, 08:22 AM | #7 |
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AirBnb
I have had a weekly rental house on the lake for over 20 years. The house sleeps 10.
Until this year it was always full for the summer by April with advertising only on Craigslist. This year, I think the price of groceries, gas Etc. have left people with a lot less discretionary money to spend. It has been very slow to fill. In April, because there were still open weeks, I put it on Airbnb for the first time. Within 48 hours three additional weeks were booked. The fees at Airbnb add a lot to the total cost of a weeks rent. I am actually surprised that people will pay that much. In a related note: I am hearing from friends in the boat sales business that the rush of the past three years has died. Also, auto manufacturers are again advertising and offering discounts and lower interest rate financing. It looks like the slowing of the economy has arrived. |
06-29-2023, 08:42 AM | #8 |
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Last week, The Boston Globe had an article about how the summer rental business on The Cape has collapsed. Rentals running at 20%+ vacancies. It was mostly attributed to things having become too expensive (with short term rental owners as one reason) and too crowded. People are now going with other options.
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06-29-2023, 08:53 AM | #9 |
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VRBO vs hotel
I just don't see a comparison in renting a house/condo and renting a hotel room. Two different types of facilities. Our family members routinely use VRBO for vacations. You pick the type and size place you want. That's a lot different than being assigned a room on the 8th floor near the elevator where there is all sorts of noise from other guests coming and going.
Yes, if you are buying now, just as an investment, it is hard to keep the prices down to what the previous owner was charging, or what appears on other VRBO listings in the same area. On the other hand, in places like the Lakes Region, I expect more rentals will come on the market as VRBO or AirBNB make it easier to rent for just an occasional week. Haven't seen it in the LR yet, but there are more companies like Vacasa who will manage your rental if you are not close enough to do it yourself. |
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06-29-2023, 09:27 AM | #10 | |
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06-29-2023, 10:42 AM | #11 |
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Somewhat related I guess…I sell advertising for our local newspaper out here in Hood River, OR, a thriving tourist town in the Columbia River Gorge. Real estate prices and rents are through the roof…just about everywhere I go, businesses owners tell me the same thing, “I don’t want to advertise because if I get any busier, I will have to hire more employees and no one can afford to live here.”
Our newspaper has an opening for a reporter…four candidates have been offered the position, but all four have turned it down because it doesn’t pay enough to afford an apartment. We have a lot of air bnb and vrbo rental property. I guess short term rentals have severely diminished the amount of long term rentals. |
06-29-2023, 02:43 PM | #12 |
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I used to use airbnb a fair amount when traveling but not since about 2019. the add on fees are crazy and it's way too expensive for just a couple days.
my friend looked at a place in holderness for a weekend $350/night. $150 cleaning + $100 airbnb fee $1000 Common Man inn was about 1/2 that |
06-29-2023, 03:47 PM | #13 | |
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06-29-2023, 03:53 PM | #14 | |
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06-29-2023, 04:51 PM | #15 | |
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If I was coming to the lake for a week and wanted a water front house or whatever then paying a couple hundred in fees is no big deal but they are dead for short term rentals if the add on fees are as much as the nightly rate. |
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06-29-2023, 06:51 PM | #16 |
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We started visiting NH in 2010 thru AirBnB summer rentals all over the state on different lakes for a week's vacation. (My husband had lived in NH in the 70's.)
Our choices were modest smaller homes, nothing was really pricey, and it helped us decide which area to retire to within 5 summers. I think lately the fees have really climbed, cleaning fees, admin fees, etc, but we liked the choice of catching the fish and cooking it for dinner as well as the extra space. We're grateful we had the opportunity to see so many different towns to decide. |
06-30-2023, 10:57 PM | #17 | |
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07-01-2023, 08:44 AM | #18 |
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Fees
VRBO and Airbnb fees have gotten crazy for both hosts and guests. Once the rental cross I think around 5k the fees add up to around 1k on VRBO. Crazy.
However people really don't understand the cleaning fee. It is carved out so you aren't paying taxes and fees on the cost of cleaning. And contrary to popular believe hotels do charge you for fees and cleaning and carve it out so you are not paying taxes on it. Last time I noticed it in the fine print it was 35 bucks to clean the room. Vrbos cleanings are entire home or condo typically and cleaners are charging 85 bucks and hour. So seeing cleaning fees for a home around 150 to 200 is very typical. |
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07-03-2023, 07:08 AM | #19 | |
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07-03-2023, 12:16 PM | #20 |
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I Haven't Seen A Decrease But...
The few AirBnB's/VRBO's I am familiar with here in Gilford are booked through the summer. I do know a few of them have dropped their prices because they were asking too much for what they offered. I expected to see the 'trends' like pricing overshoot at the beginning, then seeing it settle down to something more reasonable. If they don't their bookings will drop.
I haven't been seeing new STRs popping up like they did last year though I know there are a couple of new ones that will be opening once they get their applications through the Planning Board. As an aside, present commercial STR owner/operators in town have started submitting their applications to the PB. Gilford is allowing existing O/O's to keep operating their STRs without the required permit as long as they get their applications submitted. The PB will process those applications on a first come/first served basis. Applications for new STRs are being processed first because under the new ordinance they cannot start renting until their application is approved by the PB. |
07-04-2023, 09:07 AM | #21 |
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It Seems AirBnB's In Other Areas Are Struggling
A friend sent this too me which shows the AirBnB/VRBO craze may have passed its peak: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...are-about-sell
Despite my earlier post, I found that a couple of AirBnBs in my immediate neighborhood haven't been rented this Fourth of July week. I would think they would have been booked some time ago but no one is occupying them. |
07-04-2023, 09:22 AM | #22 | |
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Good Article
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07-06-2023, 06:51 AM | #23 | |
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As I mentioned above, I'm all for pulling homes out of investor/STR hands and putting them in the hands of committed owners/families. I think it's clear that that makes for better neighbors and neighborhoods. Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk |
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07-06-2023, 03:04 PM | #24 | |
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Assuaging The Thin Housing Market?
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How many properties like that have had to cut their prices to get any bookings at all? How many with mortgages are able to make their payments if their bookings are weak? I expect quite a few in my town are likely to go on the market within a year and for less then they paid for them. Last edited by Weekend Pundit; 07-06-2023 at 03:06 PM. Reason: Fix typo. |
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07-06-2023, 04:05 PM | #25 |
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Self Correcting
Honestly the good news about this situation is things always tend to self correct over time. High interest investors tend to sell off which allows family people to purchase during a better financial climate. Is there turmoil in between, sure, but the opportunities do eventually become available as they have in the past cycle after cycle….
Just my opinion…. Dan
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07-06-2023, 04:11 PM | #26 |
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We had a big run up in stocks from 2016-2020. When markets turned, money that was in stocks went to real estate. Remember, bonds were still paying close to 0%, so options were limited. If you invested in RE, you not only got rents, but depreciation. When you sell, the IRS wants to recapture that depreciation, and they want cash. If you can find another property, you can postpone that claw back, but the whole thing gets complicated and the STR market, I think, will be in upheaval for awhile. If you're buying STR investments in vacation areas, I suggest not buying all in the same geographic, or market, area.
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07-06-2023, 06:53 PM | #27 |
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Bring on the cheap Winni waterfront!! I am sitting on the sidelines until things get back to normal.......and I pay off my primary house lol 5 years, i need 5 years!! I'll be 45 and ready to dive into 30 years of debt for a summer place lol!!
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07-06-2023, 08:17 PM | #28 |
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The market in general may have it's ups and downs. I think Winnipesaukee waterfront homes are a little different because of the limited supply. I have not seen the prices drop as much as the non waterfront homes when the market drops and they seem to be at the top when prices increase.
The current 7% mortgages will have an effect on much of the market but many people buying waterfront homes are paying cash. In my Florida neighborhood, and it is a new neighborhood of 800 homes, I understand that 62% of buyers are paying cash. But the demographic may be mostly older and retired people so that certainly affects the number who can pay cash. |
07-06-2023, 08:37 PM | #29 | |
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07-07-2023, 09:25 AM | #31 |
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That's usually the case for off water properties but lakefront doesn't go down much because there's limited supply.
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07-07-2023, 09:45 AM | #32 |
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Yes, a good point. But that may be a decade or two from now. So far, boomers have continued to push up values by continuing to live in large expensive places even after retirement, and then also living longer.
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07-07-2023, 12:01 PM | #33 |
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The youngest Boomers are 58.
But that would be past the peak births and headed to the lull of the Generation X. Also, the first line of Boomers reaching pre-retirement had more reasonable valuations to work with... so that was the steepest part of the demand curve. Covid pulled forward some demand... and with the higher product costs of new construction and renovation... put even more pressure on prices. Roche does a pretty decent job of comparison to see when we reach peak pricing.https://www.laconiadailysun.com/real...a105bf89e.html |
07-08-2023, 10:51 AM | #34 |
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Boomers get blamed for everything now. It's the American way now, it's always someone else's fault!
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07-08-2023, 11:22 AM | #35 |
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07-08-2023, 02:23 PM | #36 | |
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The lake economics are a screaming example of that, as John's link points out. I thought my Winni house was a once in a lifetime reward that made no financial sense. Wrong! My splurge would be a huge windfall if I sold. It's as if I've been using it for free. |
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07-08-2023, 02:40 PM | #37 | |
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07-08-2023, 07:17 PM | #38 | |
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I'm sure they will be saying the same thing 40 years from now when the average American home in the US is 3 million or more. |
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07-08-2023, 07:29 PM | #39 | |
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Second homes are most often purchased by near retirees/retirees (55+); that demographic generally has the highest amount of assets due to years of working and building their wealth. They may purchase as a vacation getaway, but also think of that last ''forever home''. Lake houses tend not to be ''starter homes''. So the latest surge is the cycle of Boomers reaching 55+ and will drop as the number of people in that group drops. GenX tended to be a smaller number of people... so they will not be able to keep up the same demand. When Millennials reach 55, because of the size of that generation, a new cycle will start another surge. Their taste in housing is different so a lot of remodeling and building will go on when that happens... we expect that run to begin around 2051. |
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07-09-2023, 07:40 AM | #40 | |
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You can continue with your infomercial without quoting me! |
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07-09-2023, 10:28 AM | #41 | |
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But stepping back from your first house or my second house as one-off examples, you don't need to believe me. There are 100 places you could look for this info. Here's one set of broader data--30 years ago (one generation) the median home price to median income ratio was 4.4, today it is 7.6. https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-...ehold%20income. |
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07-09-2023, 12:53 PM | #42 | |
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07-09-2023, 01:08 PM | #43 | |
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It would be relatively hard for me to find an on-water lot to build around Winnipesaukee or the tear-downs that have diminished for the time being. But I can easily find lots in the lakes region to build on. Basic materials cost have come way down... so it is a great time to build. What is in short supply is skilled labor. But the DIY field is ever expanding. I think as we build more housing... local prices will either stabilize or maybe even drop. Just like the late 1980's and the 2008 cycle. Properties that rose the most, will most likely drop the most. Oddly, our kids don't see ''suffering''. More of their finances are labor than capital. Labor currently has a pretty strong hand. Also, high interest rates is a great time to take out a mortgage. A contrarian investor would take the lower cost of the property, pay the higher interest rate, and look forward to a time when they would refinance. Thus ending up with the lower initial cost and the lower interest rate. |
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07-09-2023, 06:33 PM | #44 | |
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If you have other data or analyses that disagree, please share. As I wrote before, one person's experience or a drive around the lake doesn't really shed light on whether or not it's tougher in general to buy a house |
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07-09-2023, 08:39 PM | #45 |
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I'm sure the data is correct.
I think it is more the way that each generation places value on things. Homes over time have gotten bigger... but we don't know if that trend will continue. They may also be willing to put a greater percentage of their income into a home and forego other expenditures. So will they be willing to part with more to buy the homes around the lake that in general are now larger than the past? What value will they give that? It will take time for the trend line to expose itself. |
07-13-2023, 03:26 PM | #46 | |
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07-13-2023, 03:36 PM | #47 | |
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07-13-2023, 08:16 PM | #48 |
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Your taxes and insurance will always be less than with the addition of a mortgage.
A younger buyer without inheriting will always pay more than you currently do... and will do so willingly. Investment in a smaller home allows for higher quality, investment in other assets, and in relation that should bring with it lower taxes and insurance comparatively to the larger homes around it. Also savings in energy costs comparatively. The problem in when the investment in other assets are depreciating assets. |
07-14-2023, 06:58 AM | #49 | |
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07-14-2023, 09:09 AM | #50 |
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All the usual building services, landscaping, shovel, plow, paint, insure, etc. Heat, some places include internet. Some sort of meal program. The big, to me, cost is continuing care--if you run out of money, they won't evict you, if need be, you can progress to assisted living, full nursing care, etc. I don't know current law, but in the not so distant past, companies were limited to the number of full nursing beds they could have. If they were full, you were taken to another facility, hopefully nearby.
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07-14-2023, 10:33 AM | #51 | |
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07-14-2023, 01:57 PM | #52 |
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In my area in Mass, I've noticed a lot more single family homes with for rent signs lately. Many people that bought homes before the Covid spike and refinanced to sub 3% mortgages are realizing they can rent their home for more than double their monthly mortgage payment.
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07-14-2023, 05:08 PM | #53 |
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Yes but, they also have to pay high rents for replacement housing as well as their mortgage. Their gains are nowhere near what they think.
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07-14-2023, 08:26 PM | #54 | |
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I use to rent my house out in Mass about 10 years ago at $2200 a month, I know I could get at least double that now if not more. Last edited by Biggd; 07-14-2023 at 08:59 PM. |
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07-14-2023, 09:17 PM | #55 |
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In theory, that would take rentals out of the ''vacation'' area... and create LTRs in the area of the primary home. Basically returning the market to ''normal''.
What we see with the STR model, is the primary home being occupied and the ''vacation'' home being rented for maximum income. But what I think they are afraid of is supply is outstripping demand in several areas. Someone using a STR for holiday would go toward value... and that may not be what we generally think to be value. Since I might be on holiday for only a week or two, and will most likely rent a boat for the few days that I wish to boat, do I need the STR to be ''on the lake''? Even within sight of the lake? That may lower the value of STR-financed lake homes; thus possibly lowering the value of all lake homes. |
07-16-2023, 05:52 PM | #56 |
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2veoTztDLw
CBS story on the general topic…. Sorry if posted, I haven’t read the complete thread in a while. |
07-16-2023, 09:29 PM | #57 | |
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