Increased Year-Round Population?

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by pjard

We have friends in Wolfeboro who told us that the high school has 30 new students this year. I live in Gilford and haven't heard anything here.

I have to think 30 is a sizable increase?

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[mcdude]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

I have to think 30 is a sizable increase?

That's only a little more than seven students per grade

I would think they'd be able to absorb the increase without much trouble or additional resources.


There's also the likelihood that some students are leaving the district as well.

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by mcdude

That's only a little more than seven students per grade

I would think they'd be able to absorb the increase without much trouble or additional resources.


There's also the likelihood that some students are leaving the district as well.

Yes, but in a school of 300, that would be 10%. (I don't know how many students are in Wolfeboro, just an example).

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[mcdude]

There are just under 900 high school students at Kingswood Regional in Wolfeboro and 2338 in the entire district. The district is comprised of Brookfield, Effingham, Ossipee, New Durham, Tuftonboro, Middleton and Wolfeboro.

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by mcdude

There are just under 900 high school students at Kingswood Regional in Wolfeboro and 2338 in the entire district. The district is comprised of Brookfield, Effingham, Ossipee, New Durham, Tuftonboro, Middleton and Wolfeboro.

Ah, I forgot it was a regional school. It'll be interesting to see what the totals actually are and how their learning plan (remote/hybrid/etc.) affects things.

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[JADAQ]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

I have to think 30 is a sizable increase?

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Gotta keep in mind how much area Kingswood high school covers though.

Ossipee, Effingham, New Durham, Wolfeboro, Tuftonboro and I think Freedom as well.

30 is a drop in the bucket

[Taz]

With the recent hot real estate market, I'm thinking there is a rude awakening on the horizon. Hearing several stories about offers several thousand over asking without home inspections. When the market corrects, and it will, it always does, there maybe alot of people underwater owing more than the property is worth. I would never buy in a market like this. Best to wait. I think there is alot of people over paying.

[Bigstan]

Originally Posted by Taz

With the recent hot real estate market, I'm thinking there is a rude awakening on the horizon. Hearing several stories about offers several thousand over asking without home inspections. When the market corrects, and it will, it always does, there maybe alot of people underwater owing more than the property is worth. I would never buy in a market like this. Best to wait. I think there is alot of people over paying.

I don’t think so. My new neighbor paid 50k over asking so as not to lose another house (he lost the last two). All cash, all these deals are. If you can write a check for 650-ish plus closing costs you won’t be upside down anytime soon. Like a realtor recently told me - if you’re not paying cash today go find another realtor.

But you are 100% correct, absolutely everyone is overpaying.

[Taz]

Originally Posted by Bigstan

I don’t think so. My new neighbor paid 50k over asking so as not to lose another house (he lost the last two). All cash, all these deals are. If you can write a check for 650-ish plus closing costs you won’t be upside down anytime soon. Like a realtor recently told me - if you’re not paying cash today go find another realtor.

But you are 100% correct, absolutely everyone is overpaying.

Maybe underwater/upside down is the wrong terminology for a cash buyer. What I meant was even if you paid cash, if the market corrects and property is worth less than you paid you lost money, unless you hold on until values return.

[Bigstan]

Originally Posted by Taz

Maybe underwater/upside down is the wrong terminology for a cash buyer. What I meant was even if you paid cash, if the market corrects and property is worth less than you paid you lost money, unless you hold on until values return.

Sure, you’ll have some exposure, but I don’t think too much as the market won’t go down soon (speculation on my part). And if you can toss around 2/3 of a mil cash you really don’t care.

Cash deals are not At all rare these days , they are prevalent. Inspections are of course done for insurance or peace of mind reasons but are not conditions of the sale, atleast on the properties I’ve seen.

[dickiej]

We're one hour east of Portland in the Columbia River Gorge....now that people can work at home, and Portland is literally being burnt to the ground, the real estate sales are going haywire out here....houses being sold within a few hours of going on the market for substantially more than asking price....sometimes sight unseen.

[SAB1]

The world is so different from what it once was even back in 2008. Heck look at the stock market. Five months ago when this pandemic started I don’t think anyone would have projected it to at 28,000 where it is now. Nothing makes much sense. The thing fueling real estate thru this whole upswing for the past decade Has a lot to do with interest rates. Money in cheap. Is there a correction coming. Yup soon as that interest rate gets back up 6-7%. But who knows when that comes. By in large homes on the water suffer much less. People always want the water.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by SAB1

The world is so different from what it once was even back in 2008. Heck look at the stock market. Five months ago when this pandemic started I don’t think anyone would have projected it to at 28,000 where it is now. Nothing makes much sense. The thing fueling real estate thru this whole upswing for the past decade Has a lot to do with interest rates. Money in cheap. Is there a correction coming. Yup soon as that interest rate gets back up 6-7%. But who knows when that comes. By in large homes on the water suffer much less. People always want the water.

I even if the rates go up to 6-7% I do not believe there will be a significant correction (over 10%). The real estate market would slow down but it would be nothing like 2008. Only an unpredictable outside influence would cause a significant correction such as what happened in 2008.


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[Biggd]

Originally Posted by SAB1

The world is so different from what it once was even back in 2008. Heck look at the stock market. Five months ago when this pandemic started I don’t think anyone would have projected it to at 28,000 where it is now. Nothing makes much sense. The thing fueling real estate thru this whole upswing for the past decade Has a lot to do with interest rates. Money in cheap. Is there a correction coming. Yup soon as that interest rate gets back up 6-7%. But who knows when that comes. By in large homes on the water suffer much less. People always want the water.

The stock market has been boosted by gambling day traders. With no sporting events to gamble on gamblers have turned to day trading. A gambler has to get his fix somewhere.
On a side note, I just got my new assessment from the town of Meredith in the mail yesterday, up almost 18%!

[map]

To me a house is a home. I could care less about appreciation or depreciation as long as I can afford to live in it that’s all that matters to me. A home is part of my skin. A place of respite and for family and friends and memories.

I am trying to make our new house here in N.H. my “home” after leaving our family home in NY behind. It’s going to take awhile I see.

[Biggd]

Originally Posted by map

To me a house is a home. I could care less about appreciation or depreciation as long as I can afford to live in it that’s all that matters to me. A home is part of my skin. A place of respite and for family and friends and memories.

I am trying to make our new house here in N.H. my “home” after leaving our family home in NY behind. It’s going to take awhile I see.

That is true but no one wants to see the value of the home drop like a rock. That being said, if you're there for the long haul it always comes back.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by map

To me a house is a home. I could care less about appreciation or depreciation as long as I can afford to live in it that’s all that matters to me. A home is part of my skin. A place of respite and for family and friends and memories.

I am trying to make our new house here in N.H. my “home” after leaving our family home in NY behind. It’s going to take awhile I see.

I just did the same. Left NY officially in July and making my NH house my home. My move from NY has been planned for several years it was not a result of the pandemic or ruination of NYC by its inept Mayor although it is extremely sad to see especially since my company had helped build the city.


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[sum-r breeze]

I've seen small market corrections along the way. We bought our forever home at the lake in 2016 after multiple condos. The house was on the market for two years and no buyers. The house was only seven years old and in really good shape. We purchased for 20K under asking price. Now things are on fire and a another home on our street sold for 20K over asking.

The Breeze

[Biggd]

Originally Posted by sum-r breeze

I've seen small market corrections along the way. We bought our forever home at the lake in 2016 after multiple condos. The house was on the market for two years and no buyers. The house was only seven years old and in really good shape. We purchased for 20K under asking price. Now things are on fire and a another home on our street sold for 20K over asking.

The Breeze

I also bought back in in 2014 for 40K under list after the home had been on the market for over a year. Prices started creeping up around around 2016 but it really turned to a sellers market over the past couple years. Now things are just plain crazy!
We've seen these kind of things back home for about 6 or 7 years now but I've never seen it like this in the Lakes region and I've been coming up here for 50 years.
People are flush with cash, never seen so many cash sales.

[map]

Originally Posted by joey2665

I just did the same. Left NY officially in July and making my NH house my home. My move from NY has been planned for several years it was not a result of the pandemic or ruination of NYC by its inept Mayor although it is extremely sad to see especially since my company had helped build the city.


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I hear ya! We have also planned for years. I was forced to resign my job in 2018 At age 62 and my husband retired 12/31/2019. He is 66. That’s the date we closed on our N.H. house and we moved in February. Our 32 year old son- single and our only child- has been up in Plymouth for 10 years already. Went to college there and never came home.

Our home in Sullivan County, NY never really appreciated like you would think, though we did at least get back our remodeling costs from the past 10 years. But it was now or never to make the move. What we purchased in The Weirs compared to what we owned in NY is no contest. The NY home on 10 1/2 acres of land was so much Bigger and better, but was time to downsize. It cost us just as much for this little house as we got for our NY house. Ok- it is new construction and cookie cutter- but still...

It’s noisier, no privacy, no land, but a house and community we can age in. I can’t go through moving again. It was exhausting! And I don’t think the homes in the community I am in appreciate that much. Just judging by the few resales I have seen here.

I’m with you about the mayor (and the Governor of NY). We also had some other factors where we lived that we wanted to get away from. I hope NH can hold onto its independent and live free or die constitution.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by Taz

With the recent hot real estate market, I'm thinking there is a rude awakening on the horizon. Hearing several stories about offers several thousand over asking without home inspections. When the market corrects, and it will, it always does, there maybe alot of people underwater owing more than the property is worth. I would never buy in a market like this. Best to wait. I think there is alot of people over paying.

Completely disagree. There has only been 1 real estate correction and not long after the values return to pre correction level and increased substantially. Who says no home inspections? The only way you can go without one is if you buy for cash which is very rare and even if you are buying for cash you should always get an inspection. Also a back will need a home appraisal just because it’s over list it might not be over market.


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[Taz]

Originally Posted by joey2665

Completely disagree. There has only been 1 real estate correction and not long after the values return to pre correction level and increased substantially. Who says no home inspections? The only way you can go without one is if you buy for cash which is very rare and even if you are buying for cash you should always get an inspection. Also a back will need a home appraisal just because it’s over list it might not be over market.


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So the recession of 2008 there were not thousands owing more than their property was worth and defaulting on their loans. As for no inspections. There are alot of cash deals, I know people who lost out because of that situation. It is happening. Just because you pay cash doesn't mean your not underwater when the value decreases. You will need to hold on until the value returns.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by Taz

So the recession of 2008 there were not thousands owing more than their property was worth and defaulting on their loans. As for no inspections. There are alot of cash deals, I know people who lost out because of that situation. It is happening. Just because you pay cash doesn't mean your not underwater when the value decreases. You will need to hold on until the value returns.

I said once and that was it and values have long since surpassed pre 2008 values. Name the other tome in history we’re there was a “correction “ in values. Not just a slight 1-5% decline a true correction? There has been no other time.


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[Taz]

Originally Posted by joey2665

Completely disagree. There has only been 1 real estate correction and not long after the values return to pre correction level and increased substantially. Who says no home inspections? The only way you can go without one is if you buy for cash which is very rare and even if you are buying for cash you should always get an inspection. Also a back will need a home appraisal just because it’s over list it might not be over market.


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During my adult years It happened more than once. I am now in my third home purchased in an area and time when the market was not experiencing a boom. The first 2 were purchased in a down market after corrections and sold when the market increased after being down.

The point of my original post, alot of people are overpaying now and it will come back to bite them later. I have seen it happen more than once over the last 30 years. Runs in cycles.

[Sue Doe-Nym]

Originally Posted by Taz

During my adult years It happened more than once. I am now in my third home purchased in an area and time when the market was not experiencing a boom. The first 2 were purchased in a down market after corrections and sold when the market increased after being down.

Taz, you are correct. We can recall at least 2 or 3 corrections in the real estate market in our time up here. Each time, the market has recovered and gone higher than pre correction. It’s cyclical, and it’s almost inevitable that another correction will be here sooner or later. Today’s prices are just plain crazy....wonderful for those wanting to sell....but you are probably right in your prediction that there will be people under water with their mortgages, sad to say.

[Bigstan]

Originally Posted by JADAQ

Gotta keep in mind how much area Kingswood high school covers though.

Ossipee, Effingham, New Durham, Wolfeboro, Tuftonboro and I think Freedom as well.

30 is a drop in the bucket

See above post as to where new people are coming from. MA , NY and such want at least a moderate population around, so Laconia, Gilford and Meredith will be the first to see a spike (seen by the immediate closing of any property on the market in those areas).

But don’t worry, as saturation and no doubt gentrification occur it will branch out to the ‘Boro’s and further.

Just look at the new builds going up in Laconia, you hear the locals talk all the time (I’m engaged to a true local so am now privy to the talk) that they feel like they’re being priced/pushed out. It’s not quite true yet, but it’s coming.