Coming to Town during Corona?

[Glendale Deli Boy]

Originally Posted by Major

Yes, unfortunately, there are alarmists. It wasn't that long ago that we made the decision to quarantine and shelter in place based on "models" showing two to three million Americans dying from the Chinese coronavirus. Essentially, we've experienced a bad flu season. (I question the death numbers we are seeing. I think they're inflated. They include deaths from hospice facilities, for example. There appears to be no discrimination between the flu or the Chinese coronavirus. Nearly every death with an associated sickness is being attributed to Chinese coronavirus, without the benefit of autopsies.)

Anyway, the models were completely wrong. The alarmists and the media are complicit in ginning up this so-called crisis.

Seems that we need to find a balance. Many of the strident posters on this board seem to feel that we should have completely disregarded the medical consensus that we needed to change the trajectory of this thing, or they think we should be on complete lockdown until a vaccine is in place. Or maybe that’s just the noise on here and there are a whole lot of folks that want to find a reasonable middle ground. But I digress.

With all due respect my main point is I simply don’t get the flu argument that you make. The data I have seen indicates one of the worst flu seasons in recent memory was when up to 60,000 people died here in the U.S. We have seen close to that number of deaths already and obviously many more to come, and all that is despite the incredibly draconian and strict measures that were implemented all over the world. In my humble opinion it is logical to assume the number of deaths would be far, far greater than the worst flu season had no measures at all been put in place. But even with the extreme measures in place we have failed. The U.S. population is but a few percent of the world but we have more than 25 percent of the deaths. We sadly missed the opportunity early on to rein this in.

I agree though that our county needs a healthy debate on how to address the pandemic in the most reasonable way possible. I think the U.S. is having that debate now but our politics are so poisoned, people so polarized, and our faith in our political leadership so lacking that it’s an ugly, unhealthy, hate filled debate. Too bad the centrists are gone. They’ve been eviscerated from the public arena to the detriment of our country and its future.

[Wifi-1]

Originally Posted by Glendale Deli Boy

Seems that we need to find a balance. Many of the strident posters on this board seem to feel that we should have completely disregarded the medical consensus that we needed to change the trajectory of this thing, or they think we should be on complete lockdown until a vaccine is in place. Or maybe that’s just the noise on here and there are a whole lot of folks that want to find a reasonable middle ground. But I digress.

With all due respect my main point is I simply don’t get the flu argument that you make. The data I have seen indicates one of the worst flu seasons in recent memory was when up to 60,000 people died here in the U.S. We have seen close to that number of deaths already and obviously many more to come, and all that is despite the incredibly draconian and strict measures that were implemented all over the world. In my humble opinion it is logical to assume the number of deaths would be far, far greater than the worst flu season had no measures at all been put in place. But even with the extreme measures in place we have failed. The U.S. population is but a few percent of the world but we have more than 25 percent of the deaths. We sadly missed the opportunity early on to rein this in.

I agree though that our county needs a healthy debate on how to address the pandemic in the most reasonable way possible. I think the U.S. is having that debate now but our politics are so poisoned, people so polarized, and our faith in our political leadership so lacking that it’s an ugly, unhealthy, hate filled debate. Too bad the centrists are gone. They’ve been eviscerated from the public arena to the detriment of our country and its future.

Excellent post. The bickering, chest beating and ganging up is out of control (IMHO). If this represents what society is turning into .....

There used to be a term: "the silent majority", hope it is alive and well..

[tbonies]

Originally Posted by Glendale Deli Boy

Seems that we need to find a balance. Many of the strident posters on this board seem to feel that we should have completely disregarded the medical consensus that we needed to change the trajectory of this thing, or they think we should be on complete lockdown until a vaccine is in place. Or maybe that’s just the noise on here and there are a whole lot of folks that want to find a reasonable middle ground. But I digress.

With all due respect my main point is I simply don’t get the flu argument that you make. The data I have seen indicates one of the worst flu seasons in recent memory was when up to 60,000 people died here in the U.S. We have seen close to that number of deaths already and obviously many more to come, and all that is despite the incredibly draconian and strict measures that were implemented all over the world. In my humble opinion it is logical to assume the number of deaths would be far, far greater than the worst flu season had no measures at all been put in place. But even with the extreme measures in place we have failed. The U.S. population is but a few percent of the world but we have more than 25 percent of the deaths. We sadly missed the opportunity early on to rein this in.

I agree though that our county needs a healthy debate on how to address the pandemic in the most reasonable way possible. I think the U.S. is having that debate now but our politics are so poisoned, people so polarized, and our faith in our political leadership so lacking that it’s an ugly, unhealthy, hate filled debate. Too bad the centrists are gone. They’ve been eviscerated from the public arena to the detriment of our country and its future.

Glendale - you are spot on with all your points. It's nice to see balance, which doesn't have much of a chance with the shrieking extremists on both sides.

[ApS]

Originally Posted by tbonies

Glendale - you are spot on with all your points. It's nice to see balance, which doesn't have much of a chance with the shrieking extremists on both sides.

Part of the incomprehension is in the numbers.

Pennsylvania's ME's forced their government health department to adjust their death-count numbers down by 1000.

New York raised theirs by 3700.

Factoid: If your state's governor is a Democrat, your chance of dying of C-19 is five times higher than otherwise.

[Not to Worry]

Originally Posted by ApS

Part of the incomprehension is in the numbers.

Pennsylvania's ME's forced their government health department to adjust their death-count numbers down by 1000.

New York raised theirs by 3700.

Factoid: If your state's governor is a Democrat, your chance of dying of C-19 is five times higher than otherwise.

For example Massachusetts is testing and tracing therefore more cases are known than for example Florida. Testing finds more cases therefore more testing equals better or more accurate deaths from Covid-19. Your chance of dying are not YET dependent on a red or blue state. Georgia might change that but time will tell.

[ApS]

Originally Posted by Not to Worry

For example Massachusetts is testing and tracing therefore more cases are known than for example Florida. Testing finds more cases therefore more testing equals better or more accurate deaths from Covid-19. Your chance of dying are not YET dependent on a red or blue state. Georgia might change that but time will tell.

Will Massachusetts' "testers" be as accurate as Massachusetts' state clinicians analyzing cocaine?


Massachusetts and Florida are both administered by Republican Governors.

Since last year's election for Georgia's Governor was barely conceded, Georgia may not be "in the count".

The contestant for Florida's top administrator was progressive Andrew Gillum, who's since made some devastating headlines:
https://nypost-com.cdn.ampproject.or...-gay-escort%2F

[Major]

Firstly, the story about the dentist is true. It is obvious NTW doesn't know much about the Navy. Not all ships are assigned surgeons. Smaller ships, like destroyers, may have a dentist, a PA, or some other health professional who is not a doctor. These health professionals must deal with any and all emergencies when at sea. My friend had to reattach an arm of a seaman who severed his arm.

Secondly, I liken this to a bad flu because the raw numbers tell me so. To date, 56,803 Americans have died because of the Chinese coronavirus. (Although, I think this number is vastly inflated, since it includes patients in hospice, regular flu victims, and pretty much anyone in a nursing or retirement facility.) But let's take the number as is. For argument sake, let's say after the second wave that a total of 120,000 Americans will fall victim to the Chinese coronavirus. In 2017-2018, between 60,000 and 85,000 Americans died of the flu. I would say that 120,000 deaths is a bad year, perhaps even an historically bad year.

We adopted our course of action because the models were wrong and overhyped. The media and social media got caught up with "flattening the curve" although this approach had never been tried. There is no evidence as of now that quarantining and sheltering has done anything to protect us. Nearly all victims are old and/or have preexisting conditions. It seems to me that a better course would have been to protect those in nursing and retirement facilities, since the vast majority of victims are from there.

[ApS]

Maybe yes? Maybe no?

[Glendale Deli Boy]

Originally Posted by Major

Secondly, I liken this to a bad flu because the raw numbers tell me so. To date, 56,803 Americans have died because of the Chinese coronavirus. (Although, I think this number is vastly inflated, since it includes patients in hospice, regular flu victims, and pretty much anyone in a nursing or retirement facility.) But let's take the number as is. For argument sake, let's say after the second wave that a total of 120,000 Americans will fall victim to the Chinese coronavirus. In 2017-2018, between 60,000 and 85,000 Americans died of the flu. I would say that 120,000 deaths is a bad year, perhaps even an historically bad year.

We adopted our course of action because the models were wrong and overhyped. The media and social media got caught up with "flattening the curve" although this approach had never been tried. There is no evidence as of now that quarantining and sheltering has done anything to protect us. Nearly all victims are old and/or have preexisting conditions. It seems to me that a better course would have been to protect those in nursing and retirement facilities, since the vast majority of victims are from there.

Interesting. Guess we won’t know the true story until the after analysis is done. This med professional author linked below thinks that now that nursing homes are required to report data that the death numbers will actually increase significantly.

https://theconversation.com/failure-...numbers-137212

It seems a real stretch to argue that quarantining and sheltering has done nothing to protect us. That seems highly illogical and is contrary to what expert virologists worldwide believe. But maybe because we started so late in the U.S. the horse had left the barn well before we took measures to protect, and those measures weren’t all that effective and that is why we have such a disproportionate share of worldwide deaths. Seems illogical but who knows. But it’s impossible to make a reasonable argument that quarantining and sheltering didn’t protect people in countries that moved early and aggressively. It very obviously made a huge difference compared to countries that were late on the start and/or not as aggressive.

[Major]

Originally Posted by Glendale Deli Boy

Interesting. Guess we won’t know the true story until the after analysis is done. This med professional author linked below thinks that now that nursing homes are required to report data that the death numbers will actually increase significantly.

https://theconversation.com/failure-...numbers-137212

It seems a real stretch to argue that quarantining and sheltering has done nothing to protect us. That seems highly illogical and is contrary to what expert virologists worldwide believe. But maybe because we started so late in the U.S. the horse had left the barn well before we took measures to protect, and those measures weren’t all that effective and that is why we have such a disproportionate share of worldwide deaths. Seems illogical but who knows. But it’s impossible to make a reasonable argument that quarantining and sheltering didn’t protect people in countries that moved early and aggressively. It very obviously made a huge difference compared to countries that were late on the start and/or not as aggressive.

Remember these were the same so-called experts who in late February were telling us there is nothing to worry about. These are the same experts that told us not to wear masks or gloves. These are the same experts who told us limiting travel from China was unnecessary. They really don't know what they are doing. They are making it up as they go along. It wasn't until the media and social media caused a frenzy that they changed their tune.

I believe the financial and economic harm caused by this overreaction will be far worse. I guess we'll find out.

[Glendale Deli Boy]

Originally Posted by Major

Remember these were the same so-called experts who in late February were telling us there is nothing to worry about. These are the same experts that told us not to wear masks or gloves. These are the same experts who told us limiting travel from China was unnecessary. They really don't know what they are doing. They are making it up as they go along. It wasn't until the media and social media caused a frenzy that they changed their tune.

I believe the financial and economic harm caused by this overreaction will be far worse. I guess we'll find out.

No, those aren’t the virologists that I am referring to. Anyway, I didn’t jump in here to just rehash ground that’s been covered repeatedly so I will step back out now and do something more productive than gum up this message board. Stay safe all and may we all enjoy another beautiful summer at the Lake. Hoping for the best.

[Wifi-1]

[chasedawg]

Originally Posted by Glendale Deli Boy

Interesting. Guess we won’t know the true story until the after analysis is done. This med professional author linked below thinks that now that nursing homes are required to report data that the death numbers will actually increase significantly.

https://theconversation.com/failure-...numbers-137212

It seems a real stretch to argue that quarantining and sheltering has done nothing to protect us. That seems highly illogical and is contrary to what expert virologists worldwide believe. But maybe because we started so late in the U.S. the horse had left the barn well before we took measures to protect, and those measures weren’t all that effective and that is why we have such a disproportionate share of worldwide deaths. Seems illogical but who knows. But it’s impossible to make a reasonable argument that quarantining and sheltering didn’t protect people in countries that moved early and aggressively. It very obviously made a huge difference compared to countries that were late on the start and/or not as aggressive.

Thank you...check my post today that is titled "did you see this..." Check out the explosive live graph that shows on 2/24 US was at the bottom of all the world countries having the number of cases. Within 4 weeks we surpassed every country of cases. Then 6 weeks US had 40% of the world cases. What does that tell you? how could this have happened? This is not a seasonal 6 month flu by an means.