Global Warming

Lakegeezer · 03-22-2006, 07:40 AM

It is spring in New Hampshire. The ice is melting in the lake, but yet it is below freezing outside. How can this be? If you stand back and take the long term view, you realize that by July, a return to winter or even spring will be a silly question. The ice will be gone, and it will be hot.

The earth is has been experiencing a global spring since the glaciers left New England, and now the earth is approaching a global summer. The ice caps are melting, Greenland is calving into the sea, glaciers in many places are melting at increased rates, the permafrost in Alaska is melting, sea levels are rising, and so on. Even the ice caps on Mars are melting. That is the evidence. The potential causes are many, including man, sunspots, orbit within our galaxy, and other causes yet to be determined. Figuring out the cause is interesting, but it leads to the blame game, and no country (especially the USA) wants to be held responsible for picking up the tab. The costs of the impact of climate issues during the next several hundred years will be huge. The earth entered global spring before humans were a factor. Did the industrial age speed up the onset of global summer by 5 years? By 100 years? By 1000 years? Good question, but I doubt there is any stopping it now.

We experience the transition to spring and summer every year, so have a good idea what is coming next at the lake. Our theories about what will happen next in the transition to global summer is still a guess at best. Scientists believe that over time, the earth has been encased in ice more than it has been warm like it is now. There is also evidence that once global climate changes start, they move quickly from one stable state to another. The evidence suggests that we are in a "move quick" period. This is similar to what we will experience at the lake in a few weeks as the ice melts, or those 3 days in May when the leaves just POP out. There is no going back. We can only look forward into the next cycle - and that is going to mean some changes. The past few weeks of cold weather have delayed what we thought might be a record early ice-out - but it won't matter. Massive human energy put into delaying the global summer would likely do just the same - delay but not stop the global summer from coming.

If we are in a transition stage now - we will see extremes for the next decade or so, as new patterns will emerge. One short-term pattern that seems to be emerging is that the snowstorms are more frequently south of the lakes region, rather than from the lakes region north. Our winters are milder, our falls are later, our springs are earlier. That pattern could last the next 30 years, or it could change next year. We could zip through Global summer in a decade and enter a new ice age. The only thing that is certain is that the climage is changing and will continue to do so.

More energy should be put into understanding what is happening, what will happen, and how to deal with what is coming next. Assigning blame to humans, is like blaming your neighbor's bubbler for an early ice-out. It had impact, and it matters locally for a short period of time, but in the long run, it doesn't matter much.

Frdxplorer · 03-22-2006, 10:38 AM

Let me qualify this statment by saying that I do not consider myself to be a tree hugger as it would normally be defined. I drive an SUV that gets ashamedly bad mileage, especially when I have my roof rack on. I am also a registered, and in all but a few rare circumstances, a voting Republican. But I do consider myself a lover of nature and the natural beauty that NH is so lucky to have alot of. Many of you are correct that the world has experienced many changes in temperature trends. However, anyone with a basic education in geology and global climate change is aware that in following these trends, it is very important to look back over millions of years, not the difference between 1921 and 2006. The changes that have taken place in the last hundered or so years have been much much much more rapid than the changes that changed landscapes on the earth hundreds of thousands or millions of years ago. To outrightly dismiss global warming is, in my opinion, and that is all this is, a little irresponsible to future generations. Both for those interested in global warming, and those convinced that its not happening, I'd really suggest auditing a geology class that deals with global climate change at a local college. During my undergrad years, I found it pretty refreshing from political science, and as a current law school student, I would probably find just about anything refreshing from property and contracts.

SIKSUKR · 03-22-2006, 11:20 AM

I don't think there is much of an argument that we have global warming based on observations from the last 150 years.But therein lies the problem.Some would blame it on man and some would say it's nature.How you can say this is all man made with such a small sample when the earth has had freeze thaw cycles for eons is beyond me.I do think we have some impact but how can it really be measured?LG makes some good observations.Looks like another topic that will stir up the pot again!

ITD · 03-22-2006, 11:21 AM

Sorry, I'm not buying Global Warming, at least with the data and the crowd presented so far. There's an interesting web site and this is just two of many articles on the subject.

http://www.junkscience.com/GMT/EDW.htm
http://www.junkscience.com/GMT/1stMonth.htm

Bottom line is there is no simple answer. Yes this was a warmer winter (I think) but not the warmest. I read somewhere that this was like the 5th warmest winter on record with the warmest one around 1880. Anyway if you do fervently believe in Global Warming, I suggest you stop driving your car, disconnect from the grid and do not heat or cool your house (yes even burning wood is detrimental supposedly). Lead by example.

dpg · 03-22-2006, 11:39 AM

Don't lose any sleep over this issue. By the time it's tropical in New Hampshire (or even close) anyone reading this forum now will have been dead for about 500 years!!!

SAMIAM · 03-22-2006, 08:19 PM

If we stopped using every internal combustion engine in the world tomorrow....it would have no effect on global warming when compared to the carbon dioxide caused by rotting vegetation.
Now,I'm feeling guilty for warming up my truck on cold mornings

John A. Birdsall · 04-21-2006, 02:09 PM

[QUOTE=SAMIAM]If we stopped using every internal combustion engine in the world tomorrow....it would have no effect on global warming when compared to the carbon dioxide caused by rotting vegetation.
************************************************** ***
If this is the case then everybody should cease eating baked beans, especially those from Boston who are full of "hot" air!

03-22-2006, 07:40 AM	#1
Lakegeezer Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Moultonboro, NH Posts: 1,678 Blog Entries: 1 Thanks: 354 Thanked 639 Times in 290 Posts	A Global Summer It is spring in New Hampshire. The ice is melting in the lake, but yet it is below freezing outside. How can this be? If you stand back and take the long term view, you realize that by July, a return to winter or even spring will be a silly question. The ice will be gone, and it will be hot. The earth is has been experiencing a global spring since the glaciers left New England, and now the earth is approaching a global summer. The ice caps are melting, Greenland is calving into the sea, glaciers in many places are melting at increased rates, the permafrost in Alaska is melting, sea levels are rising, and so on. Even the ice caps on Mars are melting. That is the evidence. The potential causes are many, including man, sunspots, orbit within our galaxy, and other causes yet to be determined. Figuring out the cause is interesting, but it leads to the blame game, and no country (especially the USA) wants to be held responsible for picking up the tab. The costs of the impact of climate issues during the next several hundred years will be huge. The earth entered global spring before humans were a factor. Did the industrial age speed up the onset of global summer by 5 years? By 100 years? By 1000 years? Good question, but I doubt there is any stopping it now. We experience the transition to spring and summer every year, so have a good idea what is coming next at the lake. Our theories about what will happen next in the transition to global summer is still a guess at best. Scientists believe that over time, the earth has been encased in ice more than it has been warm like it is now. There is also evidence that once global climate changes start, they move quickly from one stable state to another. The evidence suggests that we are in a "move quick" period. This is similar to what we will experience at the lake in a few weeks as the ice melts, or those 3 days in May when the leaves just POP out. There is no going back. We can only look forward into the next cycle - and that is going to mean some changes. The past few weeks of cold weather have delayed what we thought might be a record early ice-out - but it won't matter. Massive human energy put into delaying the global summer would likely do just the same - delay but not stop the global summer from coming. If we are in a transition stage now - we will see extremes for the next decade or so, as new patterns will emerge. One short-term pattern that seems to be emerging is that the snowstorms are more frequently south of the lakes region, rather than from the lakes region north. Our winters are milder, our falls are later, our springs are earlier. That pattern could last the next 30 years, or it could change next year. We could zip through Global summer in a decade and enter a new ice age. The only thing that is certain is that the climage is changing and will continue to do so. More energy should be put into understanding what is happening, what will happen, and how to deal with what is coming next. Assigning blame to humans, is like blaming your neighbor's bubbler for an early ice-out. It had impact, and it matters locally for a short period of time, but in the long run, it doesn't matter much. __________________ -lg

03-22-2006, 11:20 AM	#3
SIKSUKR Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 5,075 Thanks: 215 Thanked 903 Times in 509 Posts	I don't think there is much of an argument that we have global warming based on observations from the last 150 years.But therein lies the problem.Some would blame it on man and some would say it's nature.How you can say this is all man made with such a small sample when the earth has had freeze thaw cycles for eons is beyond me.I do think we have some impact but how can it really be measured?LG makes some good observations.Looks like another topic that will stir up the pot again! __________________ SIKSUKR

03-22-2006, 10:38 AM	#2
Frdxplorer Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: York, PA Posts: 234 Thanks: 2 Thanked 7 Times in 7 Posts	Let me qualify this statment by saying that I do not consider myself to be a tree hugger as it would normally be defined. I drive an SUV that gets ashamedly bad mileage, especially when I have my roof rack on. I am also a registered, and in all but a few rare circumstances, a voting Republican. But I do consider myself a lover of nature and the natural beauty that NH is so lucky to have alot of. Many of you are correct that the world has experienced many changes in temperature trends. However, anyone with a basic education in geology and global climate change is aware that in following these trends, it is very important to look back over millions of years, not the difference between 1921 and 2006. The changes that have taken place in the last hundered or so years have been much much much more rapid than the changes that changed landscapes on the earth hundreds of thousands or millions of years ago. To outrightly dismiss global warming is, in my opinion, and that is all this is, a little irresponsible to future generations. Both for those interested in global warming, and those convinced that its not happening, I'd really suggest auditing a geology class that deals with global climate change at a local college. During my undergrad years, I found it pretty refreshing from political science, and as a current law school student, I would probably find just about anything refreshing from property and contracts.

03-22-2006, 11:21 AM	#4
ITD Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Moultonboro, NH Posts: 2,931 Thanks: 478 Thanked 693 Times in 388 Posts	Sorry, I'm not buying Global Warming, at least with the data and the crowd presented so far. There's an interesting web site and this is just two of many articles on the subject. http://www.junkscience.com/GMT/EDW.htm http://www.junkscience.com/GMT/1stMonth.htm Bottom line is there is no simple answer. Yes this was a warmer winter (I think) but not the warmest. I read somewhere that this was like the 5th warmest winter on record with the warmest one around 1880. Anyway if you do fervently believe in Global Warming, I suggest you stop driving your car, disconnect from the grid and do not heat or cool your house (yes even burning wood is detrimental supposedly). Lead by example.

03-22-2006, 11:39 AM	#5
dpg Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 2,597 Thanks: 153 Thanked 229 Times in 166 Posts	Don't lose any sleep over this issue. By the time it's tropical in New Hampshire (or even close) anyone reading this forum now will have been dead for about 500 years!!!

03-22-2006, 08:19 PM	#6
SAMIAM Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Moultonborough Posts: 2,903 Thanks: 336 Thanked 1,678 Times in 587 Posts	If we stopped using every internal combustion engine in the world tomorrow....it would have no effect on global warming when compared to the carbon dioxide caused by rotting vegetation. Now,I'm feeling guilty for warming up my truck on cold mornings

04-21-2006, 02:09 PM	#7
John A. Birdsall Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Norwich, CT Posts: 599 Thanks: 27 Thanked 51 Times in 35 Posts	[QUOTE=SAMIAM]If we stopped using every internal combustion engine in the world tomorrow....it would have no effect on global warming when compared to the carbon dioxide caused by rotting vegetation. ************************************************ * If this is the case then everybody should cease eating baked beans, especially those from Boston who are full of "hot" air!