2018 Ice Out Progress

AC2717 · 04-12-2018, 09:41 AM

April 23rd 10:22am is the best looking time as of now

steve-on-mark · 04-12-2018, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AC2717

April 23rd 10:22am is the best looking time as of now

Don't even think about stealing my thunder!

webmaster · 04-12-2018, 12:36 PM

Today's update from Emerson Aviation:

Quote:

This mornings flight showed very little difference from Monday. Still no appreciable open water, including the Broads. Stay tuned.

CoastalWx · 04-12-2018, 01:34 PM

That ice will take work. Also, that temp looks awfully high. I would check that validity of that.

MAXUM · 04-12-2018, 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoastalWx

That ice will take work. Also, that temp looks awfully high. I would check that validity of that.

Well here is something that indicates it's not that far off.

rsmlp · 04-12-2018, 06:00 PM

Looks like 1-3" on Sunday. THEN it will be over...

C-Bass · 04-12-2018, 08:00 PM

Twenty mile bay is getting there..

C-Bass · 04-12-2018, 08:02 PM

Open water is pushing out from the twenty mile brook. Same at 19Mi bay. Been happening for the past few weeks.

CoastalWx · 04-12-2018, 09:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MAXUM

Well here is something that indicates it's not that far off.

That depends on how and where that thermometer is situated. Looks like a diurnal cycle too. Is it affected by melting ice now and sunlight hitting it? If so it may not be a true measurement. In any case melting will be more significant tomorrow. Big step back this weekend and then heavy rain Monday. Things should accelerate soon.

sum-r breeze · 04-14-2018, 08:21 AM

From the gas dock at MVYC the ice is very gray and there are a couple of fishermen in a 12’Whaler fishing right at the edge of the ice. Those are some hardcore fishing enthusiasts!! Weather looks iffy but gonna try to get some wax on the “Breeze” Won’t be too long...The ice looks weak.

The Breeze
Wave ‘cuz I’ll be wavin’ back

ishoot308 · 04-14-2018, 02:06 PM

The broads are basically slush. Should be breaking up tonight or tomorrow. A good wind would make things go quickly. Here’s a pic...FYI, that’s Welch Island on the left.

Dan

ishoot308 · 04-15-2018, 06:51 AM

With the anticipated 40 mph wind and rain tomorrow, that should take care of a lot of ice!

PaugusBayFireFighter · 04-15-2018, 07:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ishoot308

With the anticipated 40 mph wind and rain tomorrow, that should take care of a lot of ice!

And possibly a lot of the east facing docks.
Winds will be out of the E., then ENE.
For Paugus Bay that means South Down and Long Bay are in the cross hairs.

jeffatsquam · 04-15-2018, 10:52 AM

10 minutes and counting for my guess. Theres always next year.

8gv · 04-15-2018, 01:34 PM

So the ice will be off tomorrow as I have predicted but...

the weather will be inappropriate for flying so it will not be seen until a few days later.

CoastalWx · 04-15-2018, 02:36 PM

Going to be a little while. Today in the 20s, and should not be too windy tomorrow. The heavy rain will help, but it will take time to break it up.

ishoot308 · 04-16-2018, 02:36 PM

Today's wind has definitely started things moving. The are now very large areas of cracked ice I can see between Welch and Ellacoya with water between them. The open water on the southern side of Welch has definitely extended as well!

Not sure I want to see the ice starting to go out with this crazy wind as I feel a lot of dock destruction would occur.

Dan

SplendidSplinter9 · 04-17-2018, 08:41 AM

Has anyone seen the conditions at Silver Sands boat launch?

Slickcraft · 04-17-2018, 02:34 PM

After yesterday's strong wind I had expected to see the ice broken up between Belknap Point and Welch. Not so

The open water south of Welch has expanded a small amount and there is a bit of open off the west side of Welch. Other than that, ice ice ice crap.

chasedawg · 04-17-2018, 04:43 PM

curious...when was the latest ice out ever recorded? Just got back from spending the winter in Florida. Now getting out of here heading to the BVI's taking folks sailing. Hope when we come back May 1 the ice will be gone. Not sure after yesterday and seeing all the ice out there.

depasseg · 04-18-2018, 10:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoastalWx

That depends on how and where that thermometer is situated. Looks like a diurnal cycle too. Is it affected by melting ice now and sunlight hitting it? If so it may not be a true measurement. In any case melting will be more significant tomorrow. Big step back this weekend and then heavy rain Monday. Things should accelerate soon.

The probes are under the dock, so not directly affected by the sun. But that area is only 15 feet deep, so I think the bottom helps absorb the sun and warm up the water. If you notice, the water temp cycle goes up and down right around the 39 degree temp mark, which is where the warm water/cold water inversion occurs. My hypothesis is that the colder water from out beyond the no wake marker is inverting with the warmer water in the shallower area. If you look at the 3 month graph, you can see the last warm up in March really heated up the water to 40 degrees, but then it quickly went back down.

AC2717 · 04-19-2018, 08:27 AM

love that view more than the others, no ice!!

AC2717 · 04-19-2018, 08:33 AM

Do my eyes deceive me on the Anchor Marine cam, a boat and does not look like there is any ice in the bay?

can anyone in person confirm from Xmas island south to Lakeport if there is any ice?

i might be able to drop the lifts in

Hillcountry · 04-19-2018, 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AC2717

Do my eyes deceive me on the Anchor Marine cam, a boat and does not look like there is any ice in the bay?

can anyone in person confirm from Xmas island south to Lakeport if there is any ice?

i might be able to drop the lifts in

Your eyes are deceiving you! Today’s Anchor cam shows the ice a bit further out but still present!

AC2717 · 04-19-2018, 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hillcountry

Your eyes are deceiving you! Today’s Anchor cam shows the ice a bit further out but still present!

dam, an earlier photo was not as clear as that one. Good chance could be a non factor this weekend though

hahahaha look at me holding onto hope with a wing and a prayer

PaugusBayFireFighter · 04-19-2018, 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AC2717

dam, an earlier photo was not as clear as that one. Good chance could be a non factor this weekend though

hahahaha look at me holding onto hope with a wing and a prayer

Here's one from the other end...

ishoot308 · 04-20-2018, 05:54 AM

In my best Scotty voice...”She’s breaking up Captain!!

Huge swaths of open water between Welch Island and Belknap Point! Many large open cracks in the broads. Won’t be long now. Dropping my boat in the water today!!Woo hoo! Pic below...

Dan

Slickcraft · 04-20-2018, 07:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ishoot308

In my best Scotty voice...”She’s breaking up Captain!!

Huge swaths of open water between Welch Island and Belknap Point! Many large open cracks in the broads. Won’t be long now. Dropping my boat in the water today!!Woo hoo! Pic below...

Dan

Yes significant change from 2 days ago. We should be able to get to Welch by Sunday. Also looking out from Ames Farm a lot has opened toward Diamond and Rattlesnake.

AC2717 · 04-20-2018, 08:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaugusBayFireFighter

Here's one from the other end...

PBFF, what's up my man!!! Long time
I'll be on the Blueberry snagging bass out of your area before you know it.

How's it look today, think i can get away with putting the pwc and fishing boat lift in tomorrow afternoon without the ice beating them up?

PaugusBayFireFighter · 04-20-2018, 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AC2717

PBFF, what's up my man!!! Long time
I'll be on the Blueberry snagging bass out of your area before you know it.

How's it look today, think i can get away with putting the pwc and fishing boat lift in tomorrow afternoon without the ice beating them up?

Hey Alex... Inch’pes yes!

It looks like rotting candle ice to me. Just not sure about the wind pushing it into your area. Winds out of the NW are not great for that part of Paugus.

It's always worth a shot and as you know conditions can change quickly this time of year. What is open area can get clogged with ice quickly.

I'll be bass fishing as soon as the lake warms a bit..50 degrees is always my magic number.

PaugusBayFireFighter · 04-20-2018, 12:06 PM

For anyone new to the lake during the thaw, I made this video to show what "candle ice" looks like. Pretty self explanatory as the ice looks like a bunch of candles when you take them out of the water.

https://youtu.be/X5u3nGRCDe4

JMR · 04-20-2018, 12:16 PM

A friend was just at Ames Farm and said it is open out to Diamond and possibly to the tip of Rattlesnake. We are planning to be on Rattlesnake no later than Sunday and possibly tomorrow. Echo Shores cam looks as if skim of ice from there to Sleeper

Slickcraft · 04-20-2018, 12:30 PM

The sheet of ice between Belknap Point and Welch was blown south mid morning; currently open out to Welch. I heard from a very reliable source that a boat is already over there.

There is still ice to the north and south of the route to Welch. We plan an early morning trip out tomorrow if moving ice does not close back in.

AC2717 · 04-20-2018, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaugusBayFireFighter

Hey Alex... Inch’pes yes!

It looks like rotting candle ice to me. Just not sure about the wind pushing it into your area. Winds out of the NW are not great for that part of Paugus.

It's always worth a shot and as you know conditions can change quickly this time of year. What is open area can get clogged with ice quickly.

I'll be bass fishing as soon as the lake warms a bit..50 degrees is always my magic number.

thanks man, as long as it is candle ice I think the lifts would be fine out there, i was worried about if it was big sheets, boat and pwc wont go in for a few weeks, but this was really only other weekend to do it

MAXUM · 04-19-2018, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by depasseg

The probes are under the dock, so not directly affected by the sun. But that area is only 15 feet deep, so I think the bottom helps absorb the sun and warm up the water. If you notice, the water temp cycle goes up and down right around the 39 degree temp mark, which is where the warm water/cold water inversion occurs. My hypothesis is that the colder water from out beyond the no wake marker is inverting with the warmer water in the shallower area. If you look at the 3 month graph, you can see the last warm up in March really heated up the water to 40 degrees, but then it quickly went back down.

There is also a little bit of a "current" for lack of better description that is moving water through that area and under the LI bridge so that water isn't exactly stagnant.

Also it remains relatively shallow quite a distance out from the NWZ marker for at least another 300 yards it's still only 15 to 20 feet deep towards 5 mile IS and the entrance to Braun Bay. Even then it drops off pretty slow. The same is true on the opposite side of the LI Bridge, got to get beyond the little island and first black marker before the bottom starts to show any depth beyond 15 feet.

04-12-2018, 09:41 AM	#1
AC2717 Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Maynard, MA & Paugus Bay Posts: 2,577 Thanks: 755 Thanked 355 Times in 267 Posts	April 23rd 10:22am is the best looking time as of now __________________ Capt. of the "No Worries"

04-12-2018, 06:00 PM	#6
rsmlp Senior Member Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 475 Thanks: 5 Thanked 164 Times in 84 Posts	S word Looks like 1-3" on Sunday. THEN it will be over...

04-12-2018, 08:00 PM	#7
C-Bass Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 157 Thanks: 1 Thanked 34 Times in 17 Posts	Twenty mile bay is getting there.. Attached Images

04-14-2018, 02:06 PM	#11
ishoot308 Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Gilford, NH / Welch Island Posts: 6,282 Thanks: 2,402 Thanked 5,291 Times in 2,062 Posts	The broads are basically slush. Should be breaking up tonight or tomorrow. A good wind would make things go quickly. Here’s a pic...FYI, that’s Welch Island on the left. Dan Attached Images __________________ It's Always Sunny On Welch Island!! Last edited by ishoot308; 04-14-2018 at 03:33 PM.

04-15-2018, 06:51 AM	#12
ishoot308 Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Gilford, NH / Welch Island Posts: 6,282 Thanks: 2,402 Thanked 5,291 Times in 2,062 Posts	Wind and Rain With the anticipated 40 mph wind and rain tomorrow, that should take care of a lot of ice! __________________ It's Always Sunny On Welch Island!!

04-12-2018, 01:34 PM	#4
CoastalWx Member Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 23 Thanks: 0 Thanked 3 Times in 2 Posts	That ice will take work. Also, that temp looks awfully high. I would check that validity of that.

04-12-2018, 08:02 PM	#8
C-Bass Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 157 Thanks: 1 Thanked 34 Times in 17 Posts	Open water is pushing out from the twenty mile brook. Same at 19Mi bay. Been happening for the past few weeks.

04-14-2018, 08:21 AM	#10
sum-r breeze Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Burlington Ma / Laconia NH Posts: 396 Thanks: 155 Thanked 201 Times in 97 Posts	From the gas dock at MVYC the ice is very gray and there are a couple of fishermen in a 12’Whaler fishing right at the edge of the ice. Those are some hardcore fishing enthusiasts!! Weather looks iffy but gonna try to get some wax on the “Breeze” Won’t be too long...The ice looks weak. The Breeze Wave ‘cuz I’ll be wavin’ back

04-15-2018, 10:52 AM	#14
jeffatsquam Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: moultonborough/sandwich Posts: 187 Thanks: 173 Thanked 77 Times in 50 Posts	10 minutes and counting for my guess. Theres always next year.

04-15-2018, 01:34 PM	#15
8gv Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 2,107 Thanks: 64 Thanked 747 Times in 481 Posts	So the ice will be off tomorrow as I have predicted but... the weather will be inappropriate for flying so it will not be seen until a few days later.

04-15-2018, 02:36 PM	#16
CoastalWx Member Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 23 Thanks: 0 Thanked 3 Times in 2 Posts	Going to be a little while. Today in the 20s, and should not be too windy tomorrow. The heavy rain will help, but it will take time to break it up.

04-16-2018, 02:36 PM	#17
ishoot308 Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Gilford, NH / Welch Island Posts: 6,282 Thanks: 2,402 Thanked 5,291 Times in 2,062 Posts	Wind Today's wind has definitely started things moving. The are now very large areas of cracked ice I can see between Welch and Ellacoya with water between them. The open water on the southern side of Welch has definitely extended as well! Not sure I want to see the ice starting to go out with this crazy wind as I feel a lot of dock destruction would occur. Dan __________________ It's Always Sunny On Welch Island!!

04-17-2018, 08:41 AM	#18
SplendidSplinter9 Junior Member Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 7 Thanks: 1 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Has anyone seen the conditions at Silver Sands boat launch?

04-17-2018, 02:34 PM	#19
Slickcraft Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Welch Island and The Taylor Community Posts: 3,310 Thanks: 1,227 Thanked 2,098 Times in 957 Posts	After yesterday's strong wind I had expected to see the ice broken up between Belknap Point and Welch. Not so The open water south of Welch has expanded a small amount and there is a bit of open off the west side of Welch. Other than that, ice ice ice crap. Attached Images

04-17-2018, 04:43 PM	#20
chasedawg Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Melvin village Posts: 522 Thanks: 512 Thanked 314 Times in 148 Posts	ice out curious...when was the latest ice out ever recorded? Just got back from spending the winter in Florida. Now getting out of here heading to the BVI's taking folks sailing. Hope when we come back May 1 the ice will be gone. Not sure after yesterday and seeing all the ice out there.

04-19-2018, 08:27 AM	#22
AC2717 Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Maynard, MA & Paugus Bay Posts: 2,577 Thanks: 755 Thanked 355 Times in 267 Posts	love that view more than the others, no ice!! __________________ Capt. of the "No Worries"

04-19-2018, 08:33 AM	#23
AC2717 Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Maynard, MA & Paugus Bay Posts: 2,577 Thanks: 755 Thanked 355 Times in 267 Posts	Do my eyes deceive me on the Anchor Marine cam, a boat and does not look like there is any ice in the bay? can anyone in person confirm from Xmas island south to Lakeport if there is any ice? i might be able to drop the lifts in __________________ Capt. of the "No Worries"

04-20-2018, 05:54 AM	#27
ishoot308 Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Gilford, NH / Welch Island Posts: 6,282 Thanks: 2,402 Thanked 5,291 Times in 2,062 Posts	Ice is Going! In my best Scotty voice...”She’s breaking up Captain!! Huge swaths of open water between Welch Island and Belknap Point! Many large open cracks in the broads. Won’t be long now. Dropping my boat in the water today!!Woo hoo! Pic below... Dan Attached Images __________________ It's Always Sunny On Welch Island!!

04-20-2018, 12:06 PM	#31
PaugusBayFireFighter Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 837 Thanks: 361 Thanked 674 Times in 264 Posts	For anyone new to the lake during the thaw, I made this video to show what "candle ice" looks like. Pretty self explanatory as the ice looks like a bunch of candles when you take them out of the water. https://youtu.be/X5u3nGRCDe4

04-20-2018, 12:16 PM	#32
JMR Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Hampton & Rattlesnake Island Posts: 175 Thanks: 33 Thanked 70 Times in 32 Posts	Progress A friend was just at Ames Farm and said it is open out to Diamond and possibly to the tip of Rattlesnake. We are planning to be on Rattlesnake no later than Sunday and possibly tomorrow. Echo Shores cam looks as if skim of ice from there to Sleeper

04-20-2018, 12:30 PM	#33
Slickcraft Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Welch Island and The Taylor Community Posts: 3,310 Thanks: 1,227 Thanked 2,098 Times in 957 Posts	The sheet of ice between Belknap Point and Welch was blown south mid morning; currently open out to Welch. I heard from a very reliable source that a boat is already over there. There is still ice to the north and south of the route to Welch. We plan an early morning trip out tomorrow if moving ice does not close back in.