Live Tracking of the failing UARS satellite

Pineedles · 09-20-2011, 11:47 AM

Thanks for the link SteveA! One note though, I couldn't help from thinking about it when I heard the odds on the news report about someone being hit by the debris vs. winning Powerball which is not a fair comparison. It should be odds of someone winning powerball for a given week, which is about 1 in 5.

Slickcraft · 09-20-2011, 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pineedles

Thanks for the link SteveA! One note though, I couldn't help from thinking about it when I heard the odds on the news report about someone being hit by the debris vs. winning Powerball which is not a fair comparison. It should be odds of someone winning powerball for a given week, which is about 1 in 5.

Right you are, so far every announcer we have heard has got it wrong, even the NASA spokesperson.

The one in 3500 is the chance that someone somewhere on earth will be hit. With the earth population about 6.9 billion, 6.900,000,000 +/-, that puts the odds that I personally will be hit at about one in 24.15 trillion or one in 24,150,000,000,000.

SteveA · 09-20-2011, 04:52 PM

I stand corrected. I hate being wrong.

"there are lies damned lies and statistics"

Rattlesnake Guy · 09-20-2011, 06:21 PM

The odds of being hit by the satellite 10 minutes after winning power ball about 1 in 2.

Pineedles · 09-21-2011, 04:10 PM

Slickcraft your computations are pretty accurate! NASA put out another release today.

Nicholas Johnson, the head of NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office, has estimated that the chances that any of the UARS debris would hit anybody were 1 in 3,200 — which translates into a 1-in-20 trillion risk for any particular person (you, for example, unless you're living in, say, Finland ... in that case there's zero risk).

Don't worry SteveA, you can't believe everything that you read on the internet.

RG, It would be 100% if it were I.

SteveA · 09-21-2011, 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pineedles

Don't worry SteveA, you can't believe everything that you read on the internet.

Especially some of the stuff that SteveA guy posts!

dayvsea · 09-21-2011, 07:18 PM

Well if it lands on our camp, maybe I can soak Uncle Sam for taking down the Hurricane battered pines.. (save $1200 a piece!)

09-20-2011, 04:52 PM	#3
SteveA Deceased Member Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Gilford, NH Posts: 2,311 Thanks: 1,070 Thanked 2,054 Times in 497 Posts	You guys are right.... I stand corrected. I hate being wrong. "there are lies damned lies and statistics" __________________ "Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, if he gets angry he'll be a mile away and barefoot!" unknown

09-20-2011, 06:21 PM	#4
Rattlesnake Guy Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 1,254 Thanks: 423 Thanked 366 Times in 175 Posts	But The odds of being hit by the satellite 10 minutes after winning power ball about 1 in 2.

09-21-2011, 07:18 PM	#7
dayvsea Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 115 Thanks: 45 Thanked 4 Times in 4 Posts	Well if it lands on our camp, maybe I can soak Uncle Sam for taking down the Hurricane battered pines.. (save $1200 a piece!) __________________ "Honesty is the best policy."

09-20-2011, 11:47 AM	#1
Pineedles Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Moultonborough & CT Posts: 2,542 Thanks: 1,072 Thanked 667 Times in 366 Posts	Thanks for the link SteveA! One note though, I couldn't help from thinking about it when I heard the odds on the news report about someone being hit by the debris vs. winning Powerball which is not a fair comparison. It should be odds of someone winning powerball for a given week, which is about 1 in 5.

The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Pineedles For This Useful Post:
Newbiesaukee (09-20-2011), SteveA (09-20-2011)

The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Slickcraft For This Useful Post:
DRH (09-21-2011), Pineedles (09-20-2011), SteveA (09-20-2011)

The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to Rattlesnake Guy For This Useful Post:
CateP (09-21-2011), KPW (09-21-2011), Pepper (09-22-2011), SteveA (09-21-2011)

09-21-2011, 04:10 PM	#5
Pineedles Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Moultonborough & CT Posts: 2,542 Thanks: 1,072 Thanked 667 Times in 366 Posts	Slickcraft your computations are pretty accurate! NASA put out another release today. Nicholas Johnson, the head of NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office, has estimated that the chances that any of the UARS debris would hit anybody were 1 in 3,200 — which translates into a 1-in-20 trillion risk for any particular person (you, for example, unless you're living in, say, Finland ... in that case there's zero risk). Don't worry SteveA, you can't believe everything that you read on the internet. RG, It would be 100% if it were I.