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CanisLupusArctos · 01-27-2007, 01:19 AM

You're right... Friday's high on Black Cat was just 2 degrees - many notches lower than the +10 they were forecasting. NWS-Gray has just admitted their conservatism in the forecast discussion by deviating from "warmer" computer model guidance for tonight's temps. They're now predicting -10 for Portland and a few places -30 in the mountains. Mount Washington won't be one of them - with radiational cooling taking place, the summit is -7, warmer than the valley. The NWS has also mentioned clouds moving in by morning, which would put a stop to any radiational cooling.

Tonight we've been down to -5 but we've been level at -2 since 2200. When I drove through Center Harbor earlier the MVSB clock said -7. I think the island is getting "warmed" by the lake again. The water underneath the ice is undoubtedly giving up some heat, allowing the ice to thicken.

Check out the imagery tonight. On tonight's temperature map, we have negative double-digits all to the NW of here in VT and upstate NY. The IR Sattelite pic shows the NW wind condensing over the warmer ocean waters.

BTW I'm still reading some of those articles posted about the physics of ice. Very interesting stuff! Makes me want to go back to college. Water is such a wierd substance, and that statement is just the tip of the iceberg. (*rim-shot*)

01-27-2007, 01:19 AM	#18
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	NWS was definitely conservative... You're right... Friday's high on Black Cat was just 2 degrees - many notches lower than the +10 they were forecasting. NWS-Gray has just admitted their conservatism in the forecast discussion by deviating from "warmer" computer model guidance for tonight's temps. They're now predicting -10 for Portland and a few places -30 in the mountains. Mount Washington won't be one of them - with radiational cooling taking place, the summit is -7, warmer than the valley. The NWS has also mentioned clouds moving in by morning, which would put a stop to any radiational cooling. Tonight we've been down to -5 but we've been level at -2 since 2200. When I drove through Center Harbor earlier the MVSB clock said -7. I think the island is getting "warmed" by the lake again. The water underneath the ice is undoubtedly giving up some heat, allowing the ice to thicken. Check out the imagery tonight. On tonight's temperature map, we have negative double-digits all to the NW of here in VT and upstate NY. The IR Sattelite pic shows the NW wind condensing over the warmer ocean waters. BTW I'm still reading some of those articles posted about the physics of ice. Very interesting stuff! Makes me want to go back to college. Water is such a wierd substance, and that statement is just the tip of the iceberg. (rim-shot)