Storm for Feb 13, 2008?

Resident 2B · 02-09-2008, 05:31 PM

Folks, it is starting to look like the mid week event for this coming week will be a decent snow storm.

The models are not in complete agreement, and the GFS really cannot be trusted 4 to 5 days out, but it is looking like something will develop off the mid-Atlantic coast and move northeast. We should have cold air in place and the upper levels also look cold, so if a storm comes up and is close enough, it will be snow.

This has the potential to be a major storm.

Time will tell.

R2B

froggy · 02-09-2008, 06:12 PM

THATS four days out.

Winter of '69, w/o saying name of forecaster, he said 2-3" flurries; we got 3-4 FEET, in a few days.

secondcurve · 02-09-2008, 07:39 PM

No more, no more............My back hurts from all the shoveling and there is no place to put the new snow. Isn't it spring yet?

hilltopper · 02-11-2008, 08:13 AM

Looks like the NWS is now calling for snow Tuesday night / Wednesday morning then switching to a mix Wednesday afternoon. Not that we don't have plenty of the white stuff, but I hope they're wrong about the mixing...

Resident 2B · 02-11-2008, 03:39 PM

Just checked things out and it still looks like a storm for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast or QPF is looking like 1" to 1.5" of liquid so if it is all snow at a 10:1 ratio, that would be 10" to 15". However, I do not think we will see all snow or if we do, it will be wet and more in the 6:1to 8:1 ratio range. Although it is now very cold, the models show a Low Level Jet from the south with warm and moist air during the storm. This should impact accumulations somewhat.

I would guess that we will have a Y1 to Y1.5 storm in the Laconia area, or about 7" to 10" by the time it ends on Wednesday. If we get the 10:1 ratio it would be more, and if the warm air lifts farther north, it could be less. It is possible for a period of ice in the lakes region, so be aware of that.

South of the lakes, it is likely to be mixed with rain for some period of time and the mountain should see all snow. Mass school vacation week is next week, so the deeper cover is good for the ski businesses.

R2B

CanisLupusArctos · 02-11-2008, 06:52 PM

This scenario has happened before, in this winter. I forget which storm it was, because there've been so many, but we should look closely at what happened in order to figure this one out.

There is low pressure moving up to our west. A secondary low is forecast to get going off the NJ coast and move along the shoreline. The first low will bring up warm air that will threaten to change the snow to mix/ice/rain. The second low will be on the other side of us, giving us its cold sector.

So the question is, will the coastal low get strong enough to keep the other one from bringing in too much warm air? If I remember correctly, the last time this scenario happened (this winter) the coastal low got stronger than the models predicted and kept pulling cold air down at the lower levels. As a result, we never went over to plain rain, as the models were insisting would happen.

At this point, we have so much liquid locked up in the existing snowpack that any sudden change to spring weather (or melting rains) will not be a good thing. Since the snowpack formed on Dec. 3 we've had over 7 inches of precip, most of which is still on the ground as snow. For comparison, the May 2006 floods produced just over 6 inches of rain over a period of several days.

SteveA · 02-11-2008, 07:13 PM

I have been informed that no amount of catnip will get him out of the house.
And we call them dumb animals.

So.. in an effort to get him back to work.. It's come to this..

You Pay Shipping..

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CanisLupusArctos · 02-11-2008, 08:58 PM

Wow, this creates the Steve Index... a scale for snow deep enough to lose Yuki like a BB in a boxcar.

And that looks like an S1 to S1.5 snowbank!

Skip · 02-11-2008, 09:06 PM

Look at the bright side Steve.

You can take those pictures right on down to the Gilford assessor and get immediate relief from the view tax!!!

SteveA · 02-11-2008, 09:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skip

Look at the bright side Steve.

You can take those pictures right on down to the Gilford assessor and get immediate relief from the view tax!!!

With me standing out in front of their house in that get-up they would qualify for a serious view tax abatement!

Blue Thunder · 02-12-2008, 07:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveA

With me standing out in front of their house in that get-up they would qualify for a serious view tax abatement!

Nice scarf! Did you pick that out yourself? (sorry)

BT

fatlazyless · 02-12-2008, 07:59 AM

A ten below, sunny morning here in Waterville Valley and some jogger just run by on the public sidewalk that the town keeps clear with its' $40,000. sidewalk, sno-thrower....how about that....jogging at ten below....w/ a face mask.

Quite the machine, it's a Canadian-made, Bombardier, diesel-powered, sidewalk sno-thrower that cuts a clean 48" path along WV's miles of sidewalks.

Blue Thunder · 02-12-2008, 09:54 AM

FLL,
If they got it for 40K and it's the typical Bombardier that a lot of municipalities run, that's a steal. They are 100K new.

BT

gtxrider · 02-12-2008, 11:22 AM

I just saw on Fox News Channel that 12"+ is forecast. That settles it the 4WD is the vehicle of choice for the trip up this weekend. They tell me it is snowing here in Bedminster, NJ but since we don't have windows I cannot tell. If we had windows all I would see is worms and gophers.

Weirs guy · 02-12-2008, 12:15 PM

Steve, 2 Yuki replacements free to a good, err, any home! The only drawback is one of them has also refused to leave the house since the temp went below 20°.

Maybe I should have kept that last part to myself.

SteveA · 02-12-2008, 06:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Weirs guy

Steve, 2 Yuki replacements free to a good, err, any home! The only drawback is one of them has also refused to leave the house since the temp went below 20°.

Maybe I should have kept that last part to myself.

We already have 7 cats...So we don't need anymore! I interviewed several of the others for Yuki's job.... so far. no takers. ( I'm thinking about upping the pay to fresh haddock)

CanisLupusArctos · 02-12-2008, 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gtxrider

They tell me it is snowing here in Bedminster, NJ but since we don't have windows I cannot tell. If we had windows all I would see is worms and gophers.

Gophers are also known as ground hogs. See R2B's thread about NOAA replacing people with groundhogs. If you had windows where you are, you'd have the best weather prediction advantage among any of us! I've heard somewhere (Farmer's Almanac, maybe?) that earthworms are good for predicting weather too.

Winter Storm Warning in effect for tonight and tomorrow. We're looking for around 6 inches of heavy wet snow followed by up to a half-inch of ice accum.

Prepare for power outages with this one.

ghfromaltonbay · 02-13-2008, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

Gophers are also known as ground hogs. See R2B's thread about NOAA replacing people with groundhogs. If you had windows where you are, you'd have the best weather prediction advantage among any of us! I've heard somewhere (Farmer's Almanac, maybe?) that earthworms are good for predicting weather too.

Winter Storm Warning in effect for tonight and tomorrow. We're looking for around 6 inches of heavy wet snow followed by up to a half-inch of ice accum.

Prepare for power outages with this one.

GTXrider would indeed see worms and gophers out the window. Since his building is built into the side of a big hill, the section where he is would have an underground view. He might also see moles along with the other critters. I guess MA Bell wants everyone to watch what their monitoring and not be taking in the outdoor scenery. Actually, I think part of it is for security. Like the Forum Flyer he's in a secret location.

SteveA · 02-12-2008, 06:39 PM

[QUOTE=Blue Thunder;63317]Nice scarf! Did you pick that out yourself? (sorry)

Yes I did... my wife had picked out a bright blue one (to match my eyes and sweater) and I couldn't find my reindeer headpiece.. so I settled for the ugly stocking cap and the fuzzy Red Scarf

fatlazyless · 02-13-2008, 02:00 PM

Just checked the msn weather forecast for the next three days for 03253-Meredith and it shows Thurs-Fri-Sat having colder highs, and colder lows with each passing day.

What will that do to all this wet, heavy, concrete-like snow as the rain is now falling? Me-thinks today is the day to get to woik on it...mush you huskies mush!

If I have a heart attack while shoveling this stuff, it's been a blast!

SIKSUKR · 02-13-2008, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fatlazyless

If I have a heart attack while shoveling this stuff, it's been a blast!

Don't go yet FLL.I enjoy your skewed view of lifes trials and tribulation.I really do!

SteveA · 02-13-2008, 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SIKSUKR

Don't go yet FLL.I enjoy your skewed view of lifes trials and tribulation.I really do!

I second that... We need the "class clown" ( I mean that in a nice way)

trfour · 02-13-2008, 03:53 PM

Yah, stick around FLL, your humor and resolve is unmatched... Ten...four... good buddy?...

I say... come on back?

ITD · 02-13-2008, 05:37 PM

You're a hoot Less, just wouldn't be the same without you. Just never know what's going to be in an FLL post.

02-09-2008, 05:31 PM	#1
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,352 Thanks: 987 Thanked 310 Times in 161 Posts	Storm for Feb 13, 2008? Folks, it is starting to look like the mid week event for this coming week will be a decent snow storm. The models are not in complete agreement, and the GFS really cannot be trusted 4 to 5 days out, but it is looking like something will develop off the mid-Atlantic coast and move northeast. We should have cold air in place and the upper levels also look cold, so if a storm comes up and is close enough, it will be snow. This has the potential to be a major storm. Time will tell. R2B

02-11-2008, 03:39 PM	#5
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,352 Thanks: 987 Thanked 310 Times in 161 Posts	Monday Update Just checked things out and it still looks like a storm for Tuesday night and Wednesday. The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast or QPF is looking like 1" to 1.5" of liquid so if it is all snow at a 10:1 ratio, that would be 10" to 15". However, I do not think we will see all snow or if we do, it will be wet and more in the 6:1to 8:1 ratio range. Although it is now very cold, the models show a Low Level Jet from the south with warm and moist air during the storm. This should impact accumulations somewhat. I would guess that we will have a Y1 to Y1.5 storm in the Laconia area, or about 7" to 10" by the time it ends on Wednesday. If we get the 10:1 ratio it would be more, and if the warm air lifts farther north, it could be less. It is possible for a period of ice in the lakes region, so be aware of that. South of the lakes, it is likely to be mixed with rain for some period of time and the mountain should see all snow. Mass school vacation week is next week, so the deeper cover is good for the ski businesses. R2B

02-11-2008, 06:52 PM	#6
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	this has happened before This scenario has happened before, in this winter. I forget which storm it was, because there've been so many, but we should look closely at what happened in order to figure this one out. There is low pressure moving up to our west. A secondary low is forecast to get going off the NJ coast and move along the shoreline. The first low will bring up warm air that will threaten to change the snow to mix/ice/rain. The second low will be on the other side of us, giving us its cold sector. So the question is, will the coastal low get strong enough to keep the other one from bringing in too much warm air? If I remember correctly, the last time this scenario happened (this winter) the coastal low got stronger than the models predicted and kept pulling cold air down at the lower levels. As a result, we never went over to plain rain, as the models were insisting would happen. At this point, we have so much liquid locked up in the existing snowpack that any sudden change to spring weather (or melting rains) will not be a good thing. Since the snowpack formed on Dec. 3 we've had over 7 inches of precip, most of which is still on the ground as snow. For comparison, the May 2006 floods produced just over 6 inches of rain over a period of several days.

02-11-2008, 07:13 PM	#7
SteveA Deceased Member Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Gilford, NH Posts: 2,311 Thanks: 1,070 Thanked 2,054 Times in 497 Posts	Yuki has quit.. I have been informed that no amount of catnip will get him out of the house. And we call them dumb animals. So.. in an effort to get him back to work.. It's come to this.. You Pay Shipping.. __________________ "Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, if he gets angry he'll be a mile away and barefoot!" unknown

02-11-2008, 08:58 PM	#8
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	a whole new scale! Wow, this creates the Steve Index... a scale for snow deep enough to lose Yuki like a BB in a boxcar. And that looks like an S1 to S1.5 snowbank!

02-09-2008, 06:12 PM	#2
froggy Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Viewing Winnipesaukee Posts: 100 Thanks: 0 Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post	THATS four days out. Winter of '69, w/o saying name of forecaster, he said 2-3" flurries; we got 3-4 FEET, in a few days.

02-09-2008, 07:39 PM	#3
secondcurve Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 2,084 Thanks: 1,267 Thanked 557 Times in 286 Posts	No more, no more............My back hurts from all the shoveling and there is no place to put the new snow. Isn't it spring yet?

02-11-2008, 08:13 AM	#4
hilltopper Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Meredith Posts: 716 Thanks: 25 Thanked 105 Times in 66 Posts	Looks like the NWS is now calling for snow Tuesday night / Wednesday morning then switching to a mix Wednesday afternoon. Not that we don't have plenty of the white stuff, but I hope they're wrong about the mixing...

02-11-2008, 09:06 PM	#9
Skip Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Dover, NH Posts: 1,615 Thanks: 256 Thanked 514 Times in 182 Posts	View tax abatement? Look at the bright side Steve. You can take those pictures right on down to the Gilford assessor and get immediate relief from the view tax!!!

02-12-2008, 07:59 AM	#12
fatlazyless Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 8,529 Blog Entries: 1 Thanks: 296 Thanked 957 Times in 698 Posts	A ten below, sunny morning here in Waterville Valley and some jogger just run by on the public sidewalk that the town keeps clear with its' $40,000. sidewalk, sno-thrower....how about that....jogging at ten below....w/ a face mask. Quite the machine, it's a Canadian-made, Bombardier, diesel-powered, sidewalk sno-thrower that cuts a clean 48" path along WV's miles of sidewalks. __________________ ... down and out, liv'n that Walmart side of the lake! Last edited by fatlazyless; 02-12-2008 at 08:32 AM.

02-12-2008, 09:54 AM	#13
Blue Thunder Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Eastern MA & Frye Island/Sebago Lake, Maine Posts: 935 Thanks: 247 Thanked 323 Times in 148 Posts	That's a good deal... FLL, If they got it for 40K and it's the typical Bombardier that a lot of municipalities run, that's a steal. They are 100K new. BT __________________ " Live for today because yesterday is gone and tomorrow may never come"

02-12-2008, 11:22 AM	#14
gtxrider Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Piscataway, NJ Posts: 1,030 Thanks: 2 Thanked 46 Times in 24 Posts	Snow! I just saw on Fox News Channel that 12"+ is forecast. That settles it the 4WD is the vehicle of choice for the trip up this weekend. They tell me it is snowing here in Bedminster, NJ but since we don't have windows I cannot tell. If we had windows all I would see is worms and gophers.

02-12-2008, 12:15 PM	#15
Weirs guy Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Weirs Beach, NH Posts: 1,067 Thanks: 0 Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post	Steve, 2 Yuki replacements free to a good, err, any home! The only drawback is one of them has also refused to leave the house since the temp went below 20°. Maybe I should have kept that last part to myself. __________________ Is it bikeweek yet? Now?

02-12-2008, 06:39 PM	#19
SteveA Deceased Member Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Gilford, NH Posts: 2,311 Thanks: 1,070 Thanked 2,054 Times in 497 Posts	[QUOTE=Blue Thunder;63317]Nice scarf! Did you pick that out yourself? (sorry) Yes I did... my wife had picked out a bright blue one (to match my eyes and sweater) and I couldn't find my reindeer headpiece.. so I settled for the ugly stocking cap and the fuzzy Red Scarf __________________ "Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, if he gets angry he'll be a mile away and barefoot!" unknown

02-13-2008, 02:00 PM	#20
fatlazyless Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 8,529 Blog Entries: 1 Thanks: 296 Thanked 957 Times in 698 Posts	Just checked the msn weather forecast for the next three days for 03253-Meredith and it shows Thurs-Fri-Sat having colder highs, and colder lows with each passing day. What will that do to all this wet, heavy, concrete-like snow as the rain is now falling? Me-thinks today is the day to get to woik on it...mush you huskies mush! If I have a heart attack while shoveling this stuff, it's been a blast! __________________ ... down and out, liv'n that Walmart side of the lake!

02-13-2008, 03:53 PM	#23
trfour Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: The Lakes, Central NH. and Dallas/Fort Worth TX. Posts: 3,694 Blog Entries: 3 Thanks: 3,069 Thanked 472 Times in 236 Posts	3rd Yah, stick around FLL, your humor and resolve is unmatched... Ten...four... good buddy?... I say... come on back? __________________ *trfour* Always Remember, The Best Safety Device In The Boat, or on a PWC Snowmobile etc., Is YOU! Safe sledding tips and much more; http://www.snowmobile.org/snowmobiling-safety.html

02-13-2008, 05:37 PM	#24
ITD Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Moultonboro, NH Posts: 2,860 Thanks: 461 Thanked 666 Times in 366 Posts	4th You're a hoot Less, just wouldn't be the same without you. Just never know what's going to be in an FLL post.