Off to a good start?

[kjbathe]

I just read a Citizen article that appears to indicate the summer's off to a good start and gas prices don't seem to be having a negative impact on visitors to the region. Of course one weekend can't be used to assess the entire summer, but it's kind of fun to read some positive news.

The economy continues to grow, albeit slowly, jobless claims are steady, exports are growing, consumer spending hasn't declined. I know the major media outlets love to report on the "Economy in Crisis", but with all the signs above and mortgage rates on the rise, might the "bottom" be behind us?

[GWC...]

Originally Posted by kjbathe

I just read a Citizen article that appears to indicate the summer's off to a good start and gas prices don't seem to be having a negative impact on visitors to the region. Of course one weekend can't be used to assess the entire summer, but it's kind of fun to read some positive news.

The economy continues to grow, albeit slowly, jobless claims are steady, exports are growing, consumer spending hasn't declined. I know the major media outlets love to report on the "Economy in Crisis", but with all the signs above and mortgage rates on the rise, might the "bottom" be behind us?

No offense intended; but many people shared your thought in September, 1929.

Unfortunately, many of those had a different opinion in November, 1929.

[kjbathe]

We can check back in two months!

[SAMIAM]

Business was great over the Memorial day holiday.Everyone I talked to reported very brisk sales and suppliers said they were scrambling all weekend to get more product to the north country.Glad to hear that Lincoln and Conway were busy in spite of the gas situation. The weather seems to be the key....personally,I don't think anyone is going to give up their vacation for an extra $50 worth of gas.

[CanisLupusArctos]

I agree with GWC. Passengers on the Titanic were still living in joyful denial even as it started listing. As a result most of the lifeboats were launched half-full or less. The residents of Pompeii carried on casually with life, even as Mt. Vesuvius rumbled. It's human nature. We can't stop living, but there is such a thing as living while keeping a watchful eye on Vesuvius. Local newspapers usually can't say anything bad about their local economy. Who are their only advertisers? It's just a fact of life.

SAMIAM said the good weather is important. I noticed that last summer, that people were magically appearing on the lake every time the sky cleared, and as soon as it got cloudy, it was dead out there. When gas was cheap, people boated no matter what. I think "good weather" is going to become an even bigger requirement as people become aware they're spending more money. They'll want increasingly better experiences for their money.

Economy-wise I think we're in a "watch" situation, which in the world of weather means go on living but be ready so you won't get caught off-guard if the watch is upgraded to a warning.

If you want some positive thoughts, I had this discussion with a friend of mine this week:

- America has an obesity problem that is a huge burden on its healthcare system. And now food is getting expensive. Is this really a problem? (Imagine Jay Leno voice asking this.) The reccomended daily calorie intake for an adult is 2,000 calories. That's a ridiculously small amount, when you think about it. That means we're spending tons of money on calories our bodies don't use. With the reccomended 2000-cal diet, I'm willing to bet we could all spend no more money on food than we did before (or even less!) and our bodies & doctors would smile.

- Cities have been struggling with ways to eliminate air pollution because of the health problems it causes, and at the same time trying to figure out how to accomodate congestion on their roads. And now gas prices are high and still rising. The previous problem is solving itself.

- Expensive gas has led a lot of people to start walking or biking for local trips. Some are switching back to manual lawnmowers and hand tools instead of gas-powered ones. Another solution to the obesity problem.

- How much of an issue would affordable healthcare be, if we got rid of all the nation's problems caused by unhealthy eating and breathing polluted air in the city? I see fewer people needing doctor visits!

- And finally, how much money do we currently spend as a nation, on things like diet plans, weight loss pills, and gym memberships? If such things were no longer necessary, there's a whole bunch of extra money we suddenly have.

[fatlazyless]

What with the Lakes Region's hills, motor vehicle traffic, and skinny shoulder lanes not too suitable for bicycles, the proposed WOW trail seems promising.

Nine miles in length, costing 3million dollars to build, and traveling along state owned, railroad embankment, rights of way it would create an interesting bicycle trip as it travels over a flat bike path along the shoreline of three different lakes. There's no bike trail that's anything like it in the area, or probably in the state, and maybe all New England.

www.wowtrail.org

WOW is an acronym for Lakes Winnisquam-Opechee-Winnipesaukee.

[Irish mist]

Originally Posted by fatlazyless

What with the Lakes Region's hills, motor vehicle traffic, and skinny shoulder lanes not too suitable for bicycles, the proposed WOW trail seems promising.

Nine miles in length, costing 3million dollars to build, and traveling along state owned, railroad embankment, rights of way it would create an interesting bicycle trip as it travels over a flat bike path along the shoreline of three different lakes. There's no bike trail that's anything like it in the area, or probably in the state, and maybe all New England.

www.wowtrail.org

WOW is an acronym for Lakes Winnisquam-Opechee-Winnipesaukee.

it's a nice idea....in theory, but in practice bike trails draw an incredible amount of crime. The trails are secluded, and people tend to think they are safe, but it makes for easy-marks. The Minuteman Bike Trail which runs through Cambridge, Arlington, Lexington, and Bedford MA has many crime problems. People who use these trails just need to stay aware. On the whole I like the idea of this bike trail, but I think folks are going to be surprised at the troubles it brings.

[Argie's Wife]

That extra $50 spent on gas is going to be $50 less for the "extras" we'd normally indulge in on vacation. For example, we're less apt to order drinks with our meals or get those souvenir t-shirts we'd normally buy. We'll still get from point-A to point-B but may stay one night less than we'd planned to the previous year, before gas costs skyrocketed.

For us, vacation is more in our own back yard this year. We normally go to Story Land for Father's Day but not this year. We've taken some trips to the beach but only when parking was free. We'll be doing less of the kiddie amusement attractions in NH and ME this year and more camping, fishing, etc.

The place where I see this gas price fiasco hit us is in the daily commute to work. We live in Alton and hubby works in Bristol - that' a haul each day. Thankfully, it's only 9 months of the year (he's a teacher). The other three months, he works in Laconia - and that's still a haul from Alton. The daily gas is what's hurting us. I've learned to economize my trips and try to do all the errands in one day, if possible.

The thing I see as unbelievable inexpensive right now is the price of airline tickets. I scored round trip tickets to Chicago in August for just $220. Can't beat it! I was shocked it was that inexpensive.

In short, things aren't great but they aren't as tragic as they could be. We've learned to adjust and compromise - and still be happy.

[froggy]

It's called lifestyle adjustments. Learn from Europeans. Gang short trips for errands together. Blame the futures traders, pushing fuel prices up. The traders, the fuel refiners & such, and the auto designers are all in bed with each others; the consumer suffers. The US auto makers have been capable of designing/making 40+mpg vehicles for years!!!

[SAMIAM]

Just curious...how did this thread go from "season off to a good start" to Canis' rant about obesity?

[Mr. Moyer]

Froggy and canis, I agree with you both whole heartedly. It is ashame that it took gas prices rising for many to become more efficient and for there to be a "real" public outcry for more fuel efficiant car/homes/factories/etc. I've been telling my wife and friends for years, we should consider ourselves luck to be paying low gas prices. I have numerous friends who live or lived in Europe and they have been paying through the nose, (over $5 for 5+ years now). This is the reason they drive ridiculously small cars and ride bicycles at a greater rate then in the states. In general they are much more green and have better public trans usage.
Many people have seen this coming for years and have been trying to bring attention to the issues, but until it hits the masses,in this case in the form of gas increases and increased prices on most supplies, no one really cares. There is no reason we haven't put more effort into renewable resources, like mandating that all new housing complexes institute solar panels into the designs, etc. This does two things, mandates alternative methods, and also drops the prices of these technologies. I explored solar panals for my home out west 3 years ago and tey just didn't make sense financially (would have taken 10 years to pay off), now the same panels will only take 3 years to break even.
All of this being said there will be a squeeze for the next year or so. And I'm feeling it as much as everyone. People will be eliminating the pleasures in life, such as going out to eat as frequently, and/or travelling to the lake every weekend. They may switch to every other weekend for example. It is certaintly not ideal, but I for one feel it will be better, for us, and the enviorment for years to come. Who knows, but it seems inevitable, so we just have to deal with it for the short term. Remember, it also makes for less boats on the lake so we can at least enjoy that for the near future....God knows that won't last forever.

[secondcurve]

Sam:

After re-reading the thread, it is apparent that GWC took Canis off track by way of the Great Depression! Also, I would hardly call his post a "rant". Maybe it went slightly off topic, but he has interesting observations, comments and opinions and I enjoy reading them, as I did this time.

[GWC...]

Originally Posted by secondcurve

Sam:

After re-reading the thread, it is apparent that GWC took Canis off track by way of the Great Depression! Also, I would hardly call his post a "rant". Maybe it went slightly off topic, but he has interesting observations, comments and opinions and I enjoy reading them, as I did this time.

My post is a synopsis of the original post.

Canis is his own person. Nobody led him astray.

If the truth hurts; put me on your buddy blocker list.

[Ropetow]

AW...I feel your pain with gas prices. I commute to northeastern MA...but I am a college prof...just 32 weeks or so a year.....but still.....Not taking the Ram too often to Alton to go boating....using another vehicle....we make compromises....Our vacation will be on the boat! Even if it is anchored in a cove!

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by SAMIAM

Just curious...how did this thread go from "season off to a good start" to Canis' rant about obesity?

Actually I was trying to offer some positive thoughts after posting my true opinion as an answer to the thread's original posting. Originally I just wrote my response which basically said "I don't think so," but then I felt bad for spreading gloom and doom since I had already begun the day by writing a less-than-cheery weather forecast elsewhere. So I went back, edited, and decided to include the positive thoughts on the economy which my friend and I discussed a few days ago.

To refine my answer about Memorial Day specifically- I think the "off to a good start" was more of a function of the fact that Memorial Day weekend's weather was about as good as it gets, and people probably decided to forget about the prices as a result. Had the weekend been rainy or even just cool & cloudy, I don't think many people would've sprung for the trip.

Regarding the economy and where it's headed, I don't see this thing suddenly blowing over because America ain't alone this time. Check out this article from today's London Times. Recently the Sydney Morning Herald in Australia has been showing they're fighting rapidly-rising gas and grocery prices down under as well. The only industrialized places where it's not having an effect (yet) is where the governments are subsidizing fuel - something those governments are having a harder time doing than ever before. So my thinking is that if the worldwide problem is still worsening, then locally all we can do is hope Winni will manage to be a bubble from it all, like it sometimes does.

To leave you once again with something positive: My confidence is growing in the possibility that we might actually get up into the 80s for more than one day, starting late this week. Thinking about it makes me say "who cares about the economy?". If my confidence in this summery forecast grows enough, I'll post it in the weather section. Have a smiley for your Sunday.

[Argie's Wife]

Hubby's family, who is over in Greece, talks of gas costing about $10-$12/gal.

Count your blessings, folks!

Yes, it's bad - it could be a lot worse.

In the meantime, we're looking into secondary heat for the house this winter. I hear the Barnstead school district is looking at about $4.35 for their pre-buy oil price. School's are generally $0.50 less than joe-schmo's price for pre-buy. Although the co-op (Our Town) hasn't announced their pre-buy agreements yet, I feel it's going to be breathtaking - and not in the good sense of the term.

It's a lot easier to manage money towards oil (gas or heating) when you aren't having to manage BOTH at once. I think the really impact of this will be seen in the winter when people are paying for gas and heating oil at the same time. I think that's when we'll see tourism take a plunge. I'd like to think that things will be a bit better by then... (the glass - or rather, the oil tank - is half full, don't cha know?)

[meteotrade]

Originally Posted by froggy

Blame the futures traders, pushing fuel prices up.

*Sigh*. So much confusion on how the futures markets work. Traders, as you claim Froggy, are not to blame for the run up in prices; traders make a roughly equal number of short trades and long trades... hence the term, TRADER!!! A trader is just as likely to short sell oil as to buy it, so if anything, traders act to stabilize the oil market.

If you really want to blame someone, look to INVESTORS, like you and everyone else who has a 401k or pension. Make sure you don't have any money in a commodity index fund, which is the real culprit behind the big run up in prices. Speculators, not traders, are who are causing all the pain right now.

[TimmyG]

I have property in CT that is for sale and has been for about 9 months. My RE man says that he is seeing an upward trend in showings and real estate activity. My RE lady in NH says the same thing that she has seen closings go up quite a bit since the warm weather showed up.

I too commute to Northern MA, from Henniker to Wilmington MA every day. Door to door it is 67 miles. I have to fill up about every 3rd to 4th day. What kills me is the price of a gallon of gas rising/falling does not go along with what the price (speculation) of a barrel.

It seems very clear to me, although actual facts may prove otherwise, that if the price of oil goes up say $4/barrel, we see $0.4 a gallon increase. But if oil goes down $4 a barrel, we see maybe $0.01 per gallon decrease.

Blue Canoe in Bow junction was at $3.869 this morning.

TG

[GWC...]

Originally Posted by meteotrade

*Sigh*. So much confusion on how the futures markets work. Traders, as you claim Froggy, are not to blame for the run up in prices; traders make a roughly equal number of short trades and long trades... hence the term, TRADER!!! A trader is just as likely to short sell oil as to buy it, so if anything, traders act to stabilize the oil market.

If you really want to blame someone, look to INVESTORS, like you and everyone else who has a 401k or pension. Make sure you don't have any money in a commodity index fund, which is the real culprit behind the big run up in prices. Speculators, not traders, are who are causing all the pain right now.

Just to be clear on wordage...

You are stating that those who speculate in commodities, in an effort to hedge inflation, are investors, not traders.

[meteotrade]

Originally Posted by GWC...

Just to be clear on wordage...

You are stating that those who speculate in commodities, in an effort to hedge inflation, are investors, not traders.

Exactly. Most commodity traders do not have a long term bias in one direction or another; they will take an equal number of short and long positions over time, and most positions are held on a short term basis. An investor or speculator, on the other hand, only puts his money in one direction- long, and usually on a long term basis. So you're right, as an instrument to hedge inflation, investors will buy commodity index funs. That huge influx of extra capital flowing into the market is driving all commodity prices higher, not just oil.

[secondcurve]

Folks:

Let's get one thing straight. The reason we are getting hammered on energy costs in the US is that many of the folks in this country have fought nuclear power plants (there hasn't been one built in the US in 20 years) and drilling for oil off the coast of Florida, Texas and in Alaska. I personally feel that $6.00 heating oil and $5.50 gasoline prices (believe me these prices are right around the corner) will be a positive in the long term. Not only will energy costs in this range spur exploration and development of traditional energy sources in this country, but they will also channel money into the development of new energy sources.

[chipj29]

Originally Posted by secondcurve

Folks:

Let's get one thing straight. The reason we are getting hammered on energy costs in the US is that many of the folks in this country have fought nuclear power plants (there hasn't been one built in the US in 20 years) and drilling for oil off the coast of Florida, Texas and in Alaska. I personally feel that $6.00 heating oil and $5.50 gasoline prices (believe me these prices are right around the corner) will be a positive in the long term. Not only will energy costs in this range spur exploration and development of traditional energy sources in this country, but they will also channel money into the development of new energy sources.

secondcurve, I can't disagree with what you have said here. However, I read something on Monday that needs to be pointed out. In the last 2-3 months, US consumption of gasoline has dropped slightly. So why are the prices still going up, if demand has not gone up? It is because emerging countries like China and India are increasing the demand dramatically. As I was reading this, I was thinking of the next news special "How WalMart destroyed the US economy". No, I don't think WalMart destroyed the US economy, but there are those out there who do.

With that said, I agree wholeheartedly with you about the nuclear power plants, etc. We need alternative energy, and have the technology in place. But no one wants a power plant, especially a nuclear power plant, in their back yard. Heck, you can't even put in a windmill out in the ocean. Thanks, Uncle Teddy.

[fatlazyless]

In case you missed this news item, Tata Motors of India recently purchased the English car companies that make Land Rover & Jaquar from Ford for about half of what Ford had paid ten years ago. This certainly suggests that Tata expects to be selling those gas guzzl'n Land Rovers and Jaquars somewhere on the planet. Maybe in oil rich Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Venezualia?

Getting back to Lake Winnipesaukee....just look'n at all the quiet tranquility from south Bear Island to Gilford, surrounding buoy 3, it just seems like there's a lot less boat activity so far this season.

[kjbathe]

I've been optimistic about this summer and the economy and thought it might be a good idea to check back and see where we are at what some might call the half way point of the season. Especially after reading today's headlines which can be summarized this way: Every aspect of the economy is in trouble.

But the "trouble" seems to be characterized in terms of economic numbers not meeting forecasts or predictions. Today's reports and testimony show that core inflation is lower than expected. Inventories are up, but lower than expected. Retail sales are up, but lower than expected. Growth is appreciably below the trend rate, but it's growth, not contraction. I think this is all good. But because the actual numbers didn't meet the predicted numbers, it's cast as a failure?

That's like saying we were predicted to go 55 MPH, but we only managed 30 MPH, so we're in reverse.

Phil Gramm found himself in hot water last week for calling our current troubles a mental recession. It was politically incorrect straight talk beyond which even John McCain could stomach. But is he right? Or is 30 MPH reverse?

[GWC...]

Originally Posted by kjbathe

That's like saying we were predicted to go 55 MPH, but we only managed 30 MPH, so we're in reverse.

Depends on the individual...

If being chased by a bull capable of 45 mph, 55 mph is great and 30 mph is not.

[Heaven]

Originally Posted by kjbathe

Phil Gramm found himself in hot water last week for calling our current troubles a mental recession. It was politically incorrect straight talk beyond which even John McCain could stomach. But is he right? Or is 30 MPH reverse?

Put like that, we were desperate for a mental recession. Things were out-of-whack.

[Lakegeezer]

We're in an election year. It is bound to stay crazy, until we know who's next in charge. Even so, there seem to be lots of folks enjoying their vacation this summer. Many small boats out and more sailboats than usual.