Say it Ain't So - weather

AC2717 · 05-22-2013, 10:32 AM

just saw the latest forecast from weather.com and I do not want to believe it for Memorial Day weekend

Canis?
Resident?
anyone else?

what are your weather predictions for Friday through Monday, I do not trust national weather for our little slice of the world

PaugusBayFireFighter · 05-22-2013, 12:28 PM

If it makes you feel any better, weather service predicted partly sunny today with a high of 78...it hasn't passed 59 and no sun as of this posting.
Hopefully they are wrong again this weekend.

Belmont Resident · 05-22-2013, 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaugusBayFireFighter

If it makes you feel any better, weather service predicted partly sunny today with a high of 78...it hasn't passed 59 and no sun as of this posting.
Hopefully they are wrong again this weekend.

Amazing just how far off they have been this week. I took a chance and was able to finish up a couple of exterior doors, windows and some trim. Got is in with hours before that big blob of rain hits us a little later.
I've been monitoring the weekend weather and it doesn't look very good at all at this point. But we are heading north to do some ATV riding so rain is a good thing, it keeps the dust down and makes for some good mud riding.

Resident 2B · 05-23-2013, 12:18 AM

Looks like a wet next four or five days.

I am not happy about this one bit. This is the first Memorial Day weekend I am off from my soccer coaching job/hobby in 19 years and I was looking forward to good weather at the lake. At least I will not be getting wet on a soccer field.

R2B

SIKSUKR · 05-23-2013, 06:54 AM

Certainly for me it takes the sting out of working this whole holiday weekend.

nhboat61 · 05-23-2013, 07:06 AM

I'm seeing mixed reports. Sunday afternoon looks good as well as Monday. Saturday looks spotty.

Lets stay positive...

I have two boas in now and havent got to use them... need to launch the pwc, the kids ( young males) want to use it this weekend.

Welcome to New England, the weather changes every 5 minutes.

Resident 2B · 05-23-2013, 09:10 AM

I just spent 45 minutes looking at model output. The news is not good as things look to be slowing down meaning it looks like any clearing will be slower to come.

Today it is a front lifting northward and pulling very moist air up with it. Tomorrow has a cold front sweeping in from the NW setting off more showers. For Saturday and Sunday a low pressure area stalls near the 70/40 benchmark rotating moisture in from the ocean. Monday, the low will start to lift northeastward. This could cause some clearing, but just in time for the return trip home for those coming up for the weekend.

It should get warm today, but turn cooler tomorrow and staying cool until the sun reappears sometime on Monday.

I wish I had better news and I hope I am wrong with this forecast, but right now, my confidence is high with this bad weather forecast.

R2B

gillygirl · 05-23-2013, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

I just spent 45 minutes looking at model output. The news is not good as things look to be slowing down meaning it looks like any clearing will be slower to come.

So are all the models saying pretty much the same thing? Or is it that nasty European one that I hated over the winter the only one suggesting the rain?

Resident 2B · 05-23-2013, 02:45 PM

This is s fairly simple situation and all the short-term models are fairly aligned.

There is a line of storms "training" all the way back to NYC about the impact the lakes region. I would not be surprised to see two inches of rain between 4PM and midnight in the area.

Not a happy weather guy right now.

R2B

Lakegeezer · 05-23-2013, 03:51 PM

The lake is a bit above full (504.33 ft) and with two inches possible, the dam is throttled back almost the whole way, at 244 CFS. We don't need the erosion that man-made floods bring. Hopefully the dam operator isn't sequestered.

Update: Saturday morning. Lake is up to 594.43 and the output is still low, reported at 246 CFS. The rain gauge may not be working.

jazzman · 05-23-2013, 05:27 PM

Pretty big winds from the North too. Saturday could be pretty exciting in places if you're on the water.

http://www.windalert.com/en-us/Searc...tForecastTable

Resident 2B · 05-23-2013, 05:53 PM

The moisture train has set up a bit south of the lake. I think it will back up to the lake a bit tonight. Not sure we will see the two inches of rain at this time.

Still a showery weekend until Monday.

R2B

AC2717 · 05-24-2013, 08:40 AM

true statements across the board, but I am holding to that it will be over cast and might rain in your area but you should be able to get outside, might not be beach or boating weather, but will still be able to make it work!

PaugusBayFireFighter · 05-24-2013, 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AC2717

true statements across the board, but I am holding to that it will be over cast and might rain in your area but you should be able to get outside, might not be beach or boating weather, but will still be able to make it work!

Positive thinking AC..make the best out of it.

A rainy weekend on the lake is MUCH better than a warm sunny week at work!

SIKSUKR · 05-24-2013, 01:26 PM

Saturday is looking the worst...and coooold.Sunday should have improving weather with possible sun late.Monday now looks mostly sunny and seasonable.

PaugusBayFireFighter · 05-24-2013, 04:35 PM

Snow flurries as far south as Worcester county Saturday night into Sunday...no joke!

05-22-2013, 10:32 AM	#1
AC2717 Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Maynard, MA & Paugus Bay Posts: 2,523 Thanks: 747 Thanked 344 Times in 257 Posts	Say it Ain't So - weather just saw the latest forecast from weather.com and I do not want to believe it for Memorial Day weekend Canis? Resident? anyone else? what are your weather predictions for Friday through Monday, I do not trust national weather for our little slice of the world __________________ Capt. of the "No Worries"

05-23-2013, 06:54 AM	#5
SIKSUKR Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 5,075 Thanks: 215 Thanked 903 Times in 509 Posts	Certainly for me it takes the sting out of working this whole holiday weekend. __________________ SIKSUKR

05-23-2013, 03:51 PM	#10
Lakegeezer Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Moultonboro, NH Posts: 1,657 Blog Entries: 1 Thanks: 343 Thanked 618 Times in 278 Posts	Hope we don't flood The lake is a bit above full (504.33 ft) and with two inches possible, the dam is throttled back almost the whole way, at 244 CFS. We don't need the erosion that man-made floods bring. Hopefully the dam operator isn't sequestered. Update: Saturday morning. Lake is up to 594.43 and the output is still low, reported at 246 CFS. The rain gauge may not be working. __________________ -lg Last edited by Lakegeezer; 05-25-2013 at 06:23 AM. Reason: update

05-24-2013, 08:40 AM	#13
AC2717 Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Maynard, MA & Paugus Bay Posts: 2,523 Thanks: 747 Thanked 344 Times in 257 Posts	true statements across the board, but I am holding to that it will be over cast and might rain in your area but you should be able to get outside, might not be beach or boating weather, but will still be able to make it work! __________________ Capt. of the "No Worries"

05-24-2013, 01:26 PM	#15
SIKSUKR Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 5,075 Thanks: 215 Thanked 903 Times in 509 Posts	Saturday is looking the worst...and coooold.Sunday should have improving weather with possible sun late.Monday now looks mostly sunny and seasonable. __________________ SIKSUKR

05-22-2013, 12:28 PM	#2
PaugusBayFireFighter Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 837 Thanks: 361 Thanked 674 Times in 264 Posts	If it makes you feel any better, weather service predicted partly sunny today with a high of 78...it hasn't passed 59 and no sun as of this posting. Hopefully they are wrong again this weekend.

The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to PaugusBayFireFighter For This Useful Post:
Belmont Resident (05-22-2013), BroadHopper (05-22-2013)

05-23-2013, 12:18 AM	#4
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,352 Thanks: 988 Thanked 310 Times in 161 Posts	Looks like a wet next four or five days. I am not happy about this one bit. This is the first Memorial Day weekend I am off from my soccer coaching job/hobby in 19 years and I was looking forward to good weather at the lake. At least I will not be getting wet on a soccer field. R2B

05-23-2013, 07:06 AM	#6
nhboat61 Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: Wakefield NH Posts: 117 Thanks: 52 Thanked 16 Times in 13 Posts	I'm seeing mixed reports. Sunday afternoon looks good as well as Monday. Saturday looks spotty. Lets stay positive... I have two boas in now and havent got to use them... need to launch the pwc, the kids ( young males) want to use it this weekend. Welcome to New England, the weather changes every 5 minutes.

05-23-2013, 09:10 AM	#7
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,352 Thanks: 988 Thanked 310 Times in 161 Posts	I just spent 45 minutes looking at model output. The news is not good as things look to be slowing down meaning it looks like any clearing will be slower to come. Today it is a front lifting northward and pulling very moist air up with it. Tomorrow has a cold front sweeping in from the NW setting off more showers. For Saturday and Sunday a low pressure area stalls near the 70/40 benchmark rotating moisture in from the ocean. Monday, the low will start to lift northeastward. This could cause some clearing, but just in time for the return trip home for those coming up for the weekend. It should get warm today, but turn cooler tomorrow and staying cool until the sun reappears sometime on Monday. I wish I had better news and I hope I am wrong with this forecast, but right now, my confidence is high with this bad weather forecast. R2B

The Following User Says Thank You to Resident 2B For This Useful Post:
gillygirl (05-23-2013)

05-23-2013, 02:45 PM	#9
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,352 Thanks: 988 Thanked 310 Times in 161 Posts	This is s fairly simple situation and all the short-term models are fairly aligned. There is a line of storms "training" all the way back to NYC about the impact the lakes region. I would not be surprised to see two inches of rain between 4PM and midnight in the area. Not a happy weather guy right now. R2B

05-23-2013, 05:27 PM	#11
jazzman Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2011 Location: Mont Vernon NH & Big Barndoor Island Posts: 320 Thanks: 4 Thanked 184 Times in 62 Posts	Pretty big winds from the North too. Saturday could be pretty exciting in places if you're on the water. http://www.windalert.com/en-us/Searc...tForecastTable

05-23-2013, 05:53 PM	#12
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,352 Thanks: 988 Thanked 310 Times in 161 Posts	The moisture train has set up a bit south of the lake. I think it will back up to the lake a bit tonight. Not sure we will see the two inches of rain at this time. Still a showery weekend until Monday. R2B

05-24-2013, 04:35 PM	#16
PaugusBayFireFighter Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 837 Thanks: 361 Thanked 674 Times in 264 Posts	Snow flurries as far south as Worcester county Saturday night into Sunday...no joke!