"Monster" Storm for Jan 25, 26??

[This'nThat]

Ok, now that this month's flurries are coming to an end today, sneak reports of a "Monster" storm are surfacing for next week, with a Nor'Easter expected here Tuesday and/or Wednesday. Any truth to this? And what's the scientific definition of "Monster", just so I know? Specifically, is it more or less than "Blizzard"?

[MarkinNH]

I have checked several weather websites and even the one I have found to be the most consistant "the National Weather Service" currently shows nothing for Tuesday / Tuesday night and only a 30% chance of precipitation for Wed / Wed night & Thur. The Weather Channel website shows o% precip for Tue and only a 30% chance for Wed.
A man I just spoke with on the phone who operates a large plowing service mentioned a possible big storm for Tuesday.
So, only time will tell !

[Chris Exley]

There is a thread about the potential storm here: http://forums.accuweather.com/index....=780&start=780

Of course, we are still 5 days away, but it looks like a monster as of now.

[Blue Thunder]

From this morning....

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
*ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT MON NIGHT
*POTENTIAL MAJOR WINTER STORM NEXT WED/THU

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR WITH SURFACE HIGH
OVERHEAD...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOLID SNOW COVER. ALTHOUGH AIR
MASS HAS BEGUN TO MODERATE PER TEMP CHANGES AT 850 MB...RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED TO BE OPTIMUM AND MANY INTERIOR SHELTERED LOCATIONS
MAY BE NEARLY AS COLD AS SUN NIGHT.

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD NOW SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL MAJOR STORM
AROUND MID WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH ITS 00Z RUN AND
IS NOW ONLY ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THE GGEM
IS STILL WAY SLOWER BECAUSE IT DIGS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTO
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEFORE LIFTING IT TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AS PER THE PREEPD...THAT SOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AS LIKELY
GIVEN THE PATTERN THIS WINTER SO FAR. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MANY
DETAILS TO WORK OUT FOR AN EVENT THAT IS STILL AT LEAST 5 OR 6 DAYS
AWAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING A POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM ALREADY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MANY OF THE
DETAILS WILL AGAIN INVOLVE THE TIMING OF PHASING BETWEEN NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. THERE SEEMS TO BE GOOD EVIDENCE THAT A FAIRLY
POWERFUL STORM MAY EVOLVE FROM JUST THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH COPIOUS
GULF AND SUBTROPICAL ATLC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF THERMAL PROFILE HAS
GOTTEN SOMEWHAT COLDER WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS AND IS COLDER THAN THE
OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. INCLINED TO THINK THE COLDER PROFILE MAY MAKE
SENSE GIVEN THE DEPTH AND EXTENT OF ARCTIC AIR RESIDENT OVER NEW
ENGLAND. NONETHELESS...WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE TRACK WILL BE A
DETERMINING FACTOR. FOR NOW...GOING WITH PTYEP OF SNOW ESSENTIAL
ALONG AND NW OF THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR AND RAIN OR SNOW TO THE SE.
HAVE KEPT POPS IN CHANCE RANGE DUE TO HOW FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT
INCREASED A LITTLE AND ADJUSTED TO ACCOMMODATE THE PROBABLE SLOWER
TIMING FROM PRIOR RUNS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY HIGH
IMPACT EVENT WITH HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS. ASTRO TIDES HAVE COME
DOWN SINCE PAST THE FULL MOON BUT STILL MIGHT HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME
COASTAL FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION...IF EITHER THE
00Z ECMWF OR 00Z GFS SOLUTION COMES CLOSE TO VERIFYING.


This will start to get MAJOR hype in the next few days if the models start to come to consensus.

BT

[MarkinNH]

double posted

[MarkinNH]

Originally Posted by Blue Thunder

From this morning....

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
*ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT MON NIGHT
*POTENTIAL MAJOR WINTER STORM NEXT WED/THU

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR WITH SURFACE HIGH
OVERHEAD...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOLID SNOW COVER. ALTHOUGH AIR
MASS HAS BEGUN TO MODERATE PER TEMP CHANGES AT 850 MB...RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED TO BE OPTIMUM AND MANY INTERIOR SHELTERED LOCATIONS
MAY BE NEARLY AS COLD AS SUN NIGHT.

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD NOW SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL MAJOR STORM
AROUND MID WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH ITS 00Z RUN AND
IS NOW ONLY ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THE GGEM
IS STILL WAY SLOWER BECAUSE IT DIGS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTO
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEFORE LIFTING IT TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AS PER THE PREEPD...THAT SOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AS LIKELY
GIVEN THE PATTERN THIS WINTER SO FAR. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MANY
DETAILS TO WORK OUT FOR AN EVENT THAT IS STILL AT LEAST 5 OR 6 DAYS
AWAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING A POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM ALREADY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MANY OF THE
DETAILS WILL AGAIN INVOLVE THE TIMING OF PHASING BETWEEN NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. THERE SEEMS TO BE GOOD EVIDENCE THAT A FAIRLY
POWERFUL STORM MAY EVOLVE FROM JUST THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH COPIOUS
GULF AND SUBTROPICAL ATLC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF THERMAL PROFILE HAS
GOTTEN SOMEWHAT COLDER WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS AND IS COLDER THAN THE
OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. INCLINED TO THINK THE COLDER PROFILE MAY MAKE
SENSE GIVEN THE DEPTH AND EXTENT OF ARCTIC AIR RESIDENT OVER NEW
ENGLAND. NONETHELESS...WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE TRACK WILL BE A
DETERMINING FACTOR. FOR NOW...GOING WITH PTYEP OF SNOW ESSENTIAL
ALONG AND NW OF THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR AND RAIN OR SNOW TO THE SE.
HAVE KEPT POPS IN CHANCE RANGE DUE TO HOW FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT
INCREASED A LITTLE AND ADJUSTED TO ACCOMMODATE THE PROBABLE SLOWER
TIMING FROM PRIOR RUNS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY HIGH
IMPACT EVENT WITH HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS. ASTRO TIDES HAVE COME
DOWN SINCE PAST THE FULL MOON BUT STILL MIGHT HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME
COASTAL FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION...IF EITHER THE
00Z ECMWF OR 00Z GFS SOLUTION COMES CLOSE TO VERIFYING.


This will start to get MAJOR hype in the next few days if the models start to come to consensus.

BT

That all sounds like it was written by some meteorologist who is trying to make it seem like he's knows what he is talking about, when in reality he doesn't have a clue what the storm is going to do.

[Rose]

Reads like an area forecast discussion to me.

[MarkinNH]

The Weather Channel website has now changed the Wed / Thur forcast to a 70% chance of precipitation. The National Weather Service hasn't updated theirs yet, their still showing only a 30% chance.
I think we have more than enough snow on the ground. If were lucky the storm won't hit us to hard.
I am ready for spring. I have had enough of this white crap.

[Pepper]

Originally Posted by MarkinNH

... I have had enough of this white crap.

That makes two of us!!! (perhaps more!)

[Rose]

Originally Posted by Pepper

That makes two of us!!! (perhaps more!)

Me three...or four. The parking lanes at school are getting narrower and narrower, and I don't have a 4x4 (or the guts) to park on the snowbanks like some of the students do.

[Blue Thunder]

Originally Posted by Rose

Reads like an area forecast discussion to me.

Me too.....

[Skip]

Originally Posted by Rose

Reads like an area forecast discussion to me.

Me too....

[Rusty]

moi aussi.....

[Nagigator]

I work outside, and this weather is getting really old fast. Don't get me wrong, i like to snowshoe and hike in the woods, but three feet of snow is enough, already! Not to mention the artic air just now pouring in.

[JPC]

In two months it will be spring!

[robmac]

Can't wait for spring,and of course ice out.

[gravy boat]

I love snow and to ski and hope for a good amount. :-)

[RLW]

I'M SENDING YOU SOME SPRING!!!!!



This only takes a second and it feels so good!


I think we all need a little spring today!

I'm sending you some Spring!!!!

Click on the snowman. You will get a black page.
Click your mouse anywhere (& everywhere) on the page & see what happens!
Better yet, click (hold down) & drag your mouse over the black page...
Enjoy!!

[Pepper]

Thanks RLW! I needed that!!!!!

[SteveA]

Little chilly up on MT Washington this AM...

Wind Chill minus 70

[Jonas Pilot]

At 7:00 AM 1-24-11 Wolfeboro.

[nvtngtxpyr]

Originally Posted by MarkinNH

That all sounds like it was written by some meteorologist who is trying to make it seem like he's knows what he is talking about, when in reality he doesn't have a clue what the storm is going to do.

Go here to see the computer models that they're discussing.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

If you look at the following loop it appears that most of the moisture will be offshore. But then, it's only a computer forecast
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp...p_m_loop.shtml

[hazelnut]

WHDH Boston 4:00pm weather forecast just called for a big storm hitting Boston and lesser amounts North and West. Still significant and very similar to all other storms this season. It has been a weird winter, getting way more snow in Boston and lesser amounts around the lakes region.

[Skip]

Originally Posted by hazelnut

WHDH Boston 4:00pm weather forecast just called for a big storm hitting Boston and lesser amounts North and West. Still significant and very similar to all other storms this season. It has been a weird winter, getting way more snow in Boston and lesser amounts around the lakes region.

I have pretty much given up watching much of the "personalities" that present the weather on several of the local channels, particularly WMUR, and now try and follow a combination of several on-line mets and some of the NOAA stuff. Oh yeah, and waiting for my two favorites, Rose & CLA to chime in with their expertise!

That said the folks I follow continue to believe that central NH, including the Lakes Region, are still in the possibility of the jackpot range (12+) for this storm with SE New England including Boston to receive a mix or rain. The classic "north and west" of 495/95 storms we used to see a few years back.

Anyways, I know we could use a good foot over our way at the OVSC, especially on the rails & switches of Corridor 19. Same with out towards Sandwich way. Rode from Tamworth to Sandwich Notch yesterday, couldn't believe how much the snow fell off over the Sandwich side of the ridge!

We sledders need more snow...here's hoping for a major dumping Wednesday into Thursday!

[hazelnut]

I really really really really hope you are right Skip. I agree with you in many ways, in that I look at several sources before I "buy into it" so to speak. I always love reading Rose and CLA's take as well as others that chime in. I get much more of an education from those folks than the personalities you speak of.

Fingers crossed for a blockbuster in the Lakes and North. I'd be OK with a mix and rain here at home, I have way too much and I'd like to send it your way!

[VitaBene]

Originally Posted by Skip

I have pretty much given up watching much of the "personalities" that present the weather on several of the local channels, particularly WMUR, and now try and follow a combination of several on-line mets and some of the NOAA stuff. Oh yeah, and waiting for my two favorites, Rose & CLA to chime in with their expertise!

That said the folks I follow continue to believe that central NH, including the Lakes Region, are still in the possibility of the jackpot range (12+) for this storm with SE New England including Boston to receive a mix or rain. The classic "north and west" of 495/95 storms we used to see a few years back.

Anyways, I know we could use a good foot over our way at the OVSC, especially on the rails & switches of Corridor 19. Same with out towards Sandwich way. Rode from Tamworth to Sandwich Notch yesterday, couldn't believe how much the snow fell off over the Sandwich side of the ridge!

We sledders need more snow...here's hoping for a major dumping Wednesday into Thursday!

Keeping my fingers crossed too!!

[chipj29]

This is another tricky one. Some models are still showing the storm being too far south and east to impact us, others saying we get good snow.

Must be hard to be a weather guy these days when the guidance that you tend to lean on is so wishy-washy leading up to an event. It brings out the best weather guys, the guys who can forecast without depending on a computer. Unfortunately there are not too many of them around anymore.

[hilltopper]

Looking more and more like this storm is going to be a miss for this area. Many storms this year have trended E or NW the last 18 to 36 hours. This one does not appear to be doing so. Hope I'm wrong...

[SIKSUKR]

As of this morning it looks like pretty much a miss for the lakes. Maybe a few inches and nothing where I would like to see it. I really pay very little attention to snow total forecasts until about 24 hours before the storm. Any loger in this part of the world is pure horseshoes. It's too fine of line on 2 feet or 2 inches in NE.

[Pineedles]

It's been coming down hot and heavy since 9AM, here in CT. No more room to put the darn stuff.

[TOAD]

Originally Posted by Pineedles

It's been coming down hot and heavy since 9AM, here in CT. No more room to put the darn stuff.

I'm working in East Hartford, CT and it isn't snowing here yet...well maybe around ten flakes.

[MarkinNH]

Originally Posted by hilltopper

Looking more and more like this storm is going to be a miss for this area.

Thank god for that ! We have more than enough snow (IMO) for the winter.
Peoples dollars are stretched thin enough as it is in this economy. The more driveway plowings and or possible roof shovelings they may have to shell out for this winter is only going to put many people into the danger zone financially.

[hilltopper]

Originally Posted by MarkinNH

Thank god for that ! We have more than enough snow (IMO) for the winter.
Peoples dollars are stretched thin enough as it is in this economy. The more driveway plowings and or possible roof shovelings they may have to shell out for this winter is only going to put many people into the danger zone financially.

Lot of business owners would disagree with you there... Those who don't like snow should probably find another place to go...

[RLW]

Are we going to be doing more of this tomorrow morning????

[garysanfran]

I'll bring this with me in the spring. I took this on the left coast a couple days ago...Sorry!

[MarkinNH]

Originally Posted by hilltopper

Lot of business owners would disagree with you there... Those who don't like snow should probably find another place to go...

If that doesn't sound like a typical flatlander type response. "If you don't like it here, you can always sell out and leave" !
My comment is quite valid, whether you or some business owners agree with it or not. Maybe your not strapped for disposable funds for extra snow removal but there is a hell of alot of people here who are !

And, YES. Someday I certainly hope to go live where I don't have to see snow.

[hilltopper]

Originally Posted by MarkinNH

If that doesn't sound like a typical flatlander type response. "If you don't like it here, you can always sell out and leave" !
My comment is quite valid, whether you or some business owners agree with it or not. Maybe your not strapped for disposable funds for extra snow removal but there is a hell of alot of people here who are !

And, YES. Someday I certainly hope to go live where I don't have to see snow.

I grew up North of the notches so I don't think I'm a flatlander? I just shake my head when folks complain about snow yet basically live in Northern New England. I guess I'm lucky I don't pay for snow removal but I do have to spend two hours after every storm snowblowing, shoveling, and roof raking. If all this makes me "sound like a typical flatlander" then I am utterly confused. Jeesh, the area hasn't even gotten that much snow this Winter...

[MarkinNH]

Originally Posted by hilltopper

I grew up North of the notches so I don't think I'm a flatlander? I just shake my head when folks complain about snow yet basically live in Northern New England. I guess I'm lucky I don't pay for snow removal but I do have to spend two hours after every storm snowblowing, shoveling, and roof raking. If all this makes me "sound like a typical flatlander" then I am utterly confused. Jeesh, the area hasn't even gotten that much snow this Winter...

Nope, your no more a flatlander then I am and I am glad you like the snow but for me, 45 years of new england winters has taken it's toll.