2008 Derby Weekend Weather

Resident 2B · 02-01-2008, 01:03 PM

It is starting to look like we could get two storms around the time of Derby Weekend, one Friday night and the other Sunday night. I had been thinking these would be small events or non-events, but they are both looking like Y1 to Y2 events right now. They are also looking like all snow events.

These two storms will again be at the worse time if you are driving up for the weekend and not hanging around afterwards. CLA points out in another thread that this winter is giving us storms at the times when folks are on the roads, either coming up for the weekend or driving home. It looks like this pattern will be continuing.

The weather will turn cold and be cold for both Saturday and Sunday, around zero on Saturday night.

Plan to come early and stay late so that you do not have to drive when the roads are bad. It helps the economy!

R2B

tpabrad · 02-01-2008, 01:20 PM

Just put a smile on my face

Hopefully this pans out.

ACutAbove · 02-01-2008, 01:38 PM

Can we time these storms a little better. I really dont want to have to woory about plowing while I am worrying about catching the winning fish for the tournement.

Resident 2B · 02-03-2008, 12:55 PM

After spending some time this morning looking at the models, I have to say it will be much warmer than I expected this week. We will be 10 degrees or more above normal with temps, and any precipitation will be wet, not white during the week. Another icing event could be in the works, but I think the changeover will happen faster than it did with the last storm.

For those coming up for the derby next weekend, I am sorry that the news, and the weather, is not so good. However, it is great news for those struggling with home heating bills.

We could get colder for the weekend and we might get a storm, a snow storm, during the weekend, but that is only a 50% chance right now. Some models have the storm to our west while the GFS takes it out to sea, so if the models start to get it together and average their outputs, that could deliver a storm for us.

It is also possible the weather stays warm and we do not get a storm.

I had been thinking there would be a storm on Friday and another Sunday night, but that timing looks to be too early. It now looks something this midweek, something on the weekend and then something again midweek next week, around the 13th. The best shot at snow will come from the weekend event.

Time will tell!

R2B

tpabrad · 02-03-2008, 01:08 PM

Yea everything Im looking at doesnt say anything good. Not looking like a very good weekend

BoulderBronco · 02-03-2008, 01:36 PM

Hey it's still a week away. You guys know weather can change real quick. The temps, well maybe not. But as far as snow or a storm goes, I will wait until Wednsday to get bummed/nervous. I just want to know how much ice there is in Meredith bay right now. I am not worried about where I am fishing but if it is really only 9 or 10" at the docks that is not safe for the amount of people/sleds/trucks that that area sees.

Major problem · 02-03-2008, 01:57 PM

Now that the secret is out about sinking an SUV to create an artificial reef/fishing structure, I see no reason to drive my truck out on Saunders Bay

Seriously though, my backup plan was to use my ATV with trailer to haul my group's gear out on the ice. I'm assuming that it won't be safe to do that on Saunders Bay or at Ellacoya this coming weekend.

Does anyone have info on ice conditions on Waukewan?

secondcurve · 02-03-2008, 02:30 PM

My sense is that the folks running the tournament are going to have a tough time making a decision on whether to go through with the tournament. It likely won't be terrible, but the conditions certainly won't be desirable. If I were running the derby, I think I would reschedule now for 2-more weekends out to allow folks to adjust their schedules. Time will tell.

BoulderBronco · 02-03-2008, 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by secondcurve

My sense is that the folks running the tournament are going to have a tough time making a decision on whether to go through with the tournament. It likely won't be terrible, but the conditions certainly won't be desirable. If I were running the derby, I think I would reschedule now for 2-more weekends out to allow folks to adjust their schedules. Time will tell.

That would suck. Especially for people like my brother, girlfriend and I who are flying in from Colorado. We missed it a few years ago because of that. I would be majorly bummed.

tpabrad · 02-03-2008, 09:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BoulderBronco

That would suck. Especially for people like my brother, girlfriend and I who are flying in from Colorado. We missed it a few years ago because of that. I would be majorly bummed.

Im in the same spot although Im not coming up solely for the derby. BUT with all the warm weather and somewhat lack of snow, going to sort of kill the primary purpose for going up there.

Will still be a vacation from the kids so i guess I cant complain

secondcurve · 02-04-2008, 06:28 PM

BoulderBronco:

I empathize with you. However, it is better to be safe than sorry. Good Luck.

Resident 2B · 02-04-2008, 06:36 PM

This evening the weather forecast is for colder weather for mid-week than I thought yesterday and with more snow than predicted yesterday. It will still switch to rain from snow tomorrow evening and into Wednesday. However, the temps will return to normal for Thursday - Saturday and get colder on Sunday, possibly close to zero on Sunday night. We could see some snow Thursday through Sunday, but it does not look like a big storm.

Not great, but it looks better today than it did yesterday.

R2B

tpabrad · 02-04-2008, 06:53 PM

Thats good to hear, been watching the forecasts change to a little better winter weather. Looks like Saturday and Sunday should at least be nice and cold!

I can get 40 degree weather here in Florida, dont want to travel a 1000 miles to see the same!

Resident 2B · 02-04-2008, 07:06 PM

For those coming up, right now Sunday looks cold and windy, so bring protection for low wind chills for exposed skin.

R2B

BoulderBronco · 02-04-2008, 07:56 PM

Yup. Looks better than it did 24hrs. ago. At least the avg. temps will be below freezing. Maybe the lake can get one or two more inches of ice by the weekend. Let's hope for cold.

tpabrad · 02-04-2008, 11:56 PM

Ivw been watching the weather.com and accuweather.com forecasts today and have seen good changes. Earlier today weather.com was showing a high of 51 on Wednesday and its now much lower. Accuweather seemed to stay pretty consistent and still hasnt changed, they are still predicting mid 40's whereas weather.com is predicting mid 30's now.

What amazes me is it seems like weather.com changes it forecast from one end to the other every 15 minutes. Do they know what they are doing? I hope they are right where they are at now because it would be nothing but chances of snow while Im there and average temps below freezing.

Either way, still looks much better than yesterday, hoping it stays that way.

02-01-2008, 01:03 PM	#1
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,352 Thanks: 987 Thanked 310 Times in 161 Posts	2008 Derby Weekend Weather It is starting to look like we could get two storms around the time of Derby Weekend, one Friday night and the other Sunday night. I had been thinking these would be small events or non-events, but they are both looking like Y1 to Y2 events right now. They are also looking like all snow events. These two storms will again be at the worse time if you are driving up for the weekend and not hanging around afterwards. CLA points out in another thread that this winter is giving us storms at the times when folks are on the roads, either coming up for the weekend or driving home. It looks like this pattern will be continuing. The weather will turn cold and be cold for both Saturday and Sunday, around zero on Saturday night. Plan to come early and stay late so that you do not have to drive when the roads are bad. It helps the economy! R2B

02-03-2008, 12:55 PM	#4
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,352 Thanks: 987 Thanked 310 Times in 161 Posts	Boy, was I wrong! After spending some time this morning looking at the models, I have to say it will be much warmer than I expected this week. We will be 10 degrees or more above normal with temps, and any precipitation will be wet, not white during the week. Another icing event could be in the works, but I think the changeover will happen faster than it did with the last storm. For those coming up for the derby next weekend, I am sorry that the news, and the weather, is not so good. However, it is great news for those struggling with home heating bills. We could get colder for the weekend and we might get a storm, a snow storm, during the weekend, but that is only a 50% chance right now. Some models have the storm to our west while the GFS takes it out to sea, so if the models start to get it together and average their outputs, that could deliver a storm for us. It is also possible the weather stays warm and we do not get a storm. I had been thinking there would be a storm on Friday and another Sunday night, but that timing looks to be too early. It now looks something this midweek, something on the weekend and then something again midweek next week, around the 13th. The best shot at snow will come from the weekend event. Time will tell! R2B

02-04-2008, 06:36 PM	#12
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,352 Thanks: 987 Thanked 310 Times in 161 Posts	Not great, but better This evening the weather forecast is for colder weather for mid-week than I thought yesterday and with more snow than predicted yesterday. It will still switch to rain from snow tomorrow evening and into Wednesday. However, the temps will return to normal for Thursday - Saturday and get colder on Sunday, possibly close to zero on Sunday night. We could see some snow Thursday through Sunday, but it does not look like a big storm. Not great, but it looks better today than it did yesterday. R2B

02-04-2008, 07:06 PM	#14
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,352 Thanks: 987 Thanked 310 Times in 161 Posts	Wind Chill For those coming up, right now Sunday looks cold and windy, so bring protection for low wind chills for exposed skin. R2B

02-01-2008, 01:20 PM	#2
tpabrad Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Tampa, FL Posts: 58 Thanks: 5 Thanked 3 Times in 3 Posts	Just put a smile on my face Hopefully this pans out.

02-01-2008, 01:38 PM	#3
ACutAbove Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Holderness Posts: 219 Thanks: 7 Thanked 9 Times in 8 Posts	Can we time these storms a little better. I really dont want to have to woory about plowing while I am worrying about catching the winning fish for the tournement.

02-03-2008, 01:08 PM	#5
tpabrad Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Tampa, FL Posts: 58 Thanks: 5 Thanked 3 Times in 3 Posts	Yea everything Im looking at doesnt say anything good. Not looking like a very good weekend

02-03-2008, 01:36 PM	#6
BoulderBronco Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 121 Thanks: 0 Thanked 3 Times in 3 Posts	Hey it's still a week away. You guys know weather can change real quick. The temps, well maybe not. But as far as snow or a storm goes, I will wait until Wednsday to get bummed/nervous. I just want to know how much ice there is in Meredith bay right now. I am not worried about where I am fishing but if it is really only 9 or 10" at the docks that is not safe for the amount of people/sleds/trucks that that area sees.

02-03-2008, 01:57 PM	#7
Major problem Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Brockton,Ma, N Conway & Guilford,NH Posts: 53 Thanks: 24 Thanked 7 Times in 6 Posts	Now that the secret is out about sinking an SUV to create an artificial reef/fishing structure, I see no reason to drive my truck out on Saunders Bay Seriously though, my backup plan was to use my ATV with trailer to haul my group's gear out on the ice. I'm assuming that it won't be safe to do that on Saunders Bay or at Ellacoya this coming weekend. Does anyone have info on ice conditions on Waukewan?

02-03-2008, 02:30 PM	#8
secondcurve Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 2,084 Thanks: 1,267 Thanked 557 Times in 286 Posts	My sense is that the folks running the tournament are going to have a tough time making a decision on whether to go through with the tournament. It likely won't be terrible, but the conditions certainly won't be desirable. If I were running the derby, I think I would reschedule now for 2-more weekends out to allow folks to adjust their schedules. Time will tell.

02-04-2008, 06:28 PM	#11
secondcurve Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 2,084 Thanks: 1,267 Thanked 557 Times in 286 Posts	BoulderBronco: I empathize with you. However, it is better to be safe than sorry. Good Luck.

02-04-2008, 06:53 PM	#13
tpabrad Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Tampa, FL Posts: 58 Thanks: 5 Thanked 3 Times in 3 Posts	Thats good to hear, been watching the forecasts change to a little better winter weather. Looks like Saturday and Sunday should at least be nice and cold! I can get 40 degree weather here in Florida, dont want to travel a 1000 miles to see the same!

02-04-2008, 07:56 PM	#15
BoulderBronco Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 121 Thanks: 0 Thanked 3 Times in 3 Posts	Yup. Looks better than it did 24hrs. ago. At least the avg. temps will be below freezing. Maybe the lake can get one or two more inches of ice by the weekend. Let's hope for cold.

02-04-2008, 11:56 PM	#16
tpabrad Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Tampa, FL Posts: 58 Thanks: 5 Thanked 3 Times in 3 Posts	Ivw been watching the weather.com and accuweather.com forecasts today and have seen good changes. Earlier today weather.com was showing a high of 51 on Wednesday and its now much lower. Accuweather seemed to stay pretty consistent and still hasnt changed, they are still predicting mid 40's whereas weather.com is predicting mid 30's now. What amazes me is it seems like weather.com changes it forecast from one end to the other every 15 minutes. Do they know what they are doing? I hope they are right where they are at now because it would be nothing but chances of snow while Im there and average temps below freezing. Either way, still looks much better than yesterday, hoping it stays that way.