Ol' Yankee Forecasting... Believe it, or Not?

[angela4design]

Wives tales, myths perhaps... but I find the Yankee forecasting weather stories interesting, and I wonder if they hold any merit?

Indicators like how feverishly the squirrels collect nuts, how big the stripes are on "wooly bear" caterpillars, how high those 'ugly caterpillar things' in the trees are... all are supposed to tell us how bad a winter we could expect.

What do you think? Is there any truth to them? I've spoken with some Ol' New Hampshire Yankees, and some seem to have their tales. (They seem to think it'll be another harsh winter, BTW.) Are any from Native American tradition?

What other 'indicators' have you heard?

[hazmatmedic]

How many pine cones there are? How high those cones are in the trees? There are countless superstitions for predicting the weather.

But I like analyzing the Pacific Cold Tongue. I am just an amateur but I have predicted 100 % for 3 years now. I will make my prediction for this coming year.

We will have a cold winter (average to colder than average) and the snowfall will be between 35"-55".

I'm going for 4 in a row!

[hilltopper]

Originally Posted by hazmatmedic

I will make my prediction for this coming year.

We will have a cold winter (average to colder than average) and the snowfall will be between 35"-55".

I'm going for 4 in a row!

Man do I hope your streak stops at 3 years. Below average cold and little insulation providing snow has got to be the worst case scenario for New Englader's wallets.

[chipj29]

Originally Posted by hazmatmedic

How many pine cones there are? How high those cones are in the trees? There are countless superstitions for predicting the weather.

But I like analyzing the Pacific Cold Tongue. I am just an amateur but I have predicted 100 % for 3 years now. I will make my prediction for this coming year.

We will have a cold winter (average to colder than average) and the snowfall will be between 35"-55".

I'm going for 4 in a row!

Well, I hope you are right with your temperature prediction, but I truly hope you bust way low on your snowfall prediction. That is a pretty broad range, but still well below average (65" in Concord).

[DRH]

Originally Posted by hazmatmedic

How many pine cones there are? How high those cones are in the trees? There are countless superstitions for predicting the weather.

But I like analyzing the Pacific Cold Tongue. I am just an amateur but I have predicted 100 % for 3 years now. I will make my prediction for this coming year.

We will have a cold winter (average to colder than average) and the snowfall will be between 35"-55".

I'm going for 4 in a row!

This is a banner year for pine cones (and dripping sap!) in our neighborhood, and the cones are way up high in the trees. The white pines around our yard are absolutely loaded with pine cones, which are currently green and loaded with sap that drips all over everything. What does an abundance of pine cones high in the trees typically mean for the upcoming winter?

[Lakegeezer]

I've got a theory that as the arctic sea melts more and more, we will see more snow, or at least precipitation, here in New England. The theory goes like this... with more water and warmer temperatures in the polar region, more moisture is pulled into the atmosphere at high lattitudes. The Coriolis effect then spins the moisture down to the lower lattitudes where it dumps on us. Last year was a record for open seas up there. This year may beat last year's record. If my theory has any merit, we'll see increasing moisture - snow if its cold.

[chipj29]

Some say that increased squirrel activity signals a harsh winter. Some say that increased acorn activity presents a similar signal. If the acorn activity right now is any indication, we are in for a harsh winter. I have noticed the acorns dropping early this year, and there are a lot of them. Was the same last year too.
My theory says that the increased squirrel activity is due to the increased acorn activity.

[CanisLupusArctos]

This year I am watching for the presence of sun spots. The solar cycle goes 11.1 years. At the peak of a solar cycle there are more sunspots, indicating increased activity in the sun. Solar minimum, the time between cycles when there are few spots, is usually marked by colder weather on earth. Makes sense... the fire starts to cool down, so do the kids in front of it. Well, the astronomers keep blogging about no sunspots. It's been a year or so since the last cycle ended.

This spring, there was a great deal of sea ice up in northern Canada. Hudson's Bay remained frozen well into the summer. It was part of the reason we kept getting cold fronts coming down out of Canada, causing all the severe weather we had across the country and finally here, when the warmth and humidity tried to arrive. My friends in Jackson Hole Wyoming called June, "Juneuary" and said they were skiing the backcountry while I was having a July 4 BBQ here at the lake. Snow is now back in their forecast after a short hiatus. It has already fallen (and accumulated) on highways in the passes of the Rockies this month.

I'm thinking a warm and dry fall is possible if the rumors of a weak El Nino are true... I haven't had time to verify it. But the Pacific Ocean's decadal oscillation has just gone into cold phase after several years in warm phase. In warm phase, El Nino occurrences (like December 2006) can last longer and be more intense. In cold phase, the La Nina occurrences (like last winter and the first half of this summer) become more frequent, longer lasting, and more intense. So even if a weak El Nino has formed, I would expect it wouldn't last long. When it breaks down - back to the reality of solar minimum.

There has been a new study just completed about the sun's cycle. It concludes that the peaks of solar cycles since 1990 have become gradually weaker, and states that if the trend continues, the sun will begin a multi-year minimum around 2014 or 2015... with a gradual decline in solar activity until then.

This is great news for communications, which are often disrupted by solar activity. This is not great news for heating bills.

Before you freak out about a possible solar mimimum lasting several years, know this: It's happened before, from the mid-1600s until the early 1700s. It is called the Maunder Minimum. It was pretty cold during those decades. The colonists who set up this area (before the Revolution) didn't have it easy. Also know this: The study is just a study, done by people, and they reached a hypothesis, not a proof. Time will test the hypothesis.

As for folklore, I love folklore. I have always heard the bands on "wooly bear" catarpillars foretell a winter. The brown stands for mild, the black stands for severe. A mostly black wooly bear catarpillar would then foretell a mostly severe winter.

The Farmer's Almanac said fog at this time of year fortells a harsh winter. Well, if that's true, we're about to have a harsh winter. I've noted 15 days with fog at Black Cat this month. That's half the month, and we're not even into the "lake fog" season yet. That starts mid-September, usually.

Snow is always heavy here whenever we get a weather pattern that brings moisture up the east coast from the Gulf of Mexico (moisture central) AND combines it with a cold air hose running from Canada. That's the recipe for snow: Moisture in one pipe, cold dry air in another pipe. Run them together, and snow will be the result. We currently have an Atlantic Ocean still running in warm phase for a few more years, so it will be a good moisture source as long as there's a tropical jet stream willing to bring it up this way, and a polar jet stream willing to bring us some Canadian air at the same time. I usually like it when the two hoses train on the Carolina coast, and when the tropical jet is strong enough to serve as the storm's coast-hugging track. That kind of scenario usually puts me at the top of Wildcat Mountain with freshly polished skis, ready to cut some freshies in the deep powder.

[ApS]

Last summer, Loons gathered in small groups for migration earlier than usual, and our area had a very severe winter.

The first signs of migration are for Loons to gather in groups, call soft "hoots" between themselves, and preen their new suit of feathers around the middle of September and into October.

Loons have been doing that for several days this August!

[angela4design]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

As for folklore, I love folklore. I have always heard the bands on "wooly bear" catarpillars foretell a winter. The brown stands for mild, the black stands for severe. A mostly black wooly bear catarpillar would then foretell a mostly severe winter.

The Farmer's Almanac said fog at this time of year fortells a harsh winter. Well, if that's true, we're about to have a harsh winter. I've noted 15 days with fog at Black Cat this month. That's half the month, and we're not even into the "lake fog" season yet. That starts mid-September, usually.

Wow, pine cones, acorns, sunspots, fog... thanks for sharing some of the other signs! (I never knew which caterpillar stripes were which, thanks CLA!) Looks like we're splitting an extra cord of wood! Last year was harsh enough! I wonder how many new boats that we bought for our plow-guys last winter! Maybe it's time to put a plow on the Volvo!

sheesh!

[Jonas Pilot]

I think it will be a cold winter because I just saw a chicken with a capon.

[RI Swamp Yankee]

Originally Posted by Jonas Pilot

I think it will be a cold winter because I just saw a chicken with a capon.

Ok, ... where is the "groan" button when you need it?

[CanisLupusArctos]

Just remember the greatest folklore about foretelling the severity of a New England winter is how well-prepared you are for it. If you buy a snazzy new snowblower, snowmobiles, skis, and order tons of firewood, it will definitely be a mild, snowless winter. However, if you leave tools lying around in the yard in November, don't take the swim ladders in off the dock, never do your fall cleanup, don't order any firewood, and decide against replacing the worn-out snow shovel, the winter will definitely be a record snow year and very cold. When there's a warm spell in winter and I want to use my skis and snowshoes, I take all the snow shovels and bury them in the garage where I won't be able to get at them. Then I put off food shopping until all I have is a few drops of milk and a slice of bread. This usually results in a quick end to the midwinter thaw, and tons of snow.

[Rose]

It was October and the Indians on a remote reservation asked their new Chief if the coming winter was going to be cold or mild. Since he was a Chief in a modern society he had never been taught the old secrets. When he looked at the sky he couldn't tell what the winter was going to be like. Nevertheless, to be on the safe side he told his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect firewood to be prepared. But being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea. He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked, "Is the coming winter going to be cold?"

"It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold" the meteorologist at the weather service responded.

So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more firewood in order to be prepared. A week later he called the National Weather Service again. "Does it still look like it is going to be a very cold winter?"

"Yes," the man at National Weather Service again replied, "it's going to be a very cold winter."

The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of firewood they could find. Two weeks later the Chief called the National Weather Service again. "Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?"

"Absolutely," the man replied. "It's looking more and more like it is going to be one of the coldest winters ever."

"How can you be so sure?" the Chief asked.

The weatherman replied, "The Indians are collecting firewood like crazy."

[nj2nh]

Being a fan of snow, cold and winter in general, I am all for a cold, snowy one. However, you all were "blessed" with what I would call a great winter while down here in Jersey we got diddly, nada, zip.

And, while I really don't want to pay for all that heating oil that is headed my way (unless we convert to gas and get a new boiler which is likely), I say "bring it on!"

I have the foolproof solution to guarantee snow in Jersey. Having children. My oldest was born in December 1993 and we had a doozy of a winter. My younger son came in April 1996. There was still so much snow on the ground that we had yet to take down the Christmas Lights. They were frozen onto the bushes. We didn't get them off until late April that year. Another winning winter!

However, I am not birthing any more babies so you are all on your own!

nj2nh

[chipj29]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

Just remember the greatest folklore about foretelling the severity of a New England winter is how well-prepared you are for it. If you buy a snazzy new snowblower, snowmobiles, skis, and order tons of firewood, it will definitely be a mild, snowless winter. However, if you leave tools lying around in the yard in November, don't take the swim ladders in off the dock, never do your fall cleanup, don't order any firewood, and decide against replacing the worn-out snow shovel, the winter will definitely be a record snow year and very cold. When there's a warm spell in winter and I want to use my skis and snowshoes, I take all the snow shovels and bury them in the garage where I won't be able to get at them. Then I put off food shopping until all I have is a few drops of milk and a slice of bread. This usually results in a quick end to the midwinter thaw, and tons of snow.

My snowblower is 10 years old, and my snowmobile is 5 years old, with no new sled in the near future. However, I did just by my son a "new" sled, but it is a 1986 model.

Originally Posted by nj2nh

Being a fan of snow, cold and winter in general, I am all for a cold, snowy one. However, you all were "blessed" with what I would call a great winter while down here in Jersey we got diddly, nada, zip.

And, while I really don't want to pay for all that heating oil that is headed my way (unless we convert to gas and get a new boiler which is likely), I say "bring it on!"

I have the foolproof solution to guarantee snow in Jersey. Having children. My oldest was born in December 1993 and we had a doozy of a winter. My younger son came in April 1996. There was still so much snow on the ground that we had yet to take down the Christmas Lights. They were frozen onto the bushes. We didn't get them off until late April that year. Another winning winter!

However, I am not birthing any more babies so you are all on your own!

nj2nh

Me either! My son was born in Feb 1996...

[hazmatmedic]

The pacific ocean is warming faster than I expected. It now appears a mild winter with little snowfall. Sorry. Oh and thats the reason why all the hurricanes this season as compared to last few years. we have average temps there so it allows for storms to organize.

Next year looks like less hurricanes (we will be in El Nino, shears storms) and it will be cold.

This is fun!

[chipj29]

Originally Posted by hazmatmedic

The pacific ocean is warming faster than I expected. It now appears a mild winter with little snowfall. Sorry. Oh and thats the reason why all the hurricanes this season as compared to last few years. we have average temps there so it allows for storms to organize.

Next year looks like less hurricanes (we will be in El Nino, shears storms) and it will be cold.

This is fun!

Interesting theory....
We could have a winter like 2000-2001 (tons of snow)
We could have a winter like 2001-2002 (warm and snowless)

Which way will it go? My gut is with 2000-2001.