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Old 06-22-2020, 10:50 PM   #1
CanisLupusArctos
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Default Heat Wave & Water Temp, June 2020

On Sunday, 21 June the air temperature at Black Cat Island reached 90 degrees for the third consecutive day, making an official heat wave. While 90 degrees is not unusual on the island between May and September, official heat waves are much less common.

Surrounded by much cooler lake water, the island requires a great deal more heat energy (and 100 percent cooperation from the Big Lake's quirky microclimate) for that to happen. Typically, when the lakes region towns get an official heat wave, the lake islands miss 90-degrees by just a couple of notches on at least one of the days, like a meteorological game of tic-tac-toe.

The last official heat wave on the island was Independence Day weekend 2018.

The max temperatures of this month's heat wave were:

19th: 92 F
20th: 90 F
21st: 91 F


A greater-than expected onshore airflow (North Atlantic Ocean influence with fog) held today's morning temperatures down until midday, and as a result the sun had only enough time to produce a max of 87 F, thus ending the waterfront heat wave of Father's Day Weekend 2020.

There is some potential for a return to these temperatures later this month (but forecast confidence in that is not high) after a cool-down (75-80) later this week. A round of showers and thunderstorms will mark the transition on Wednesday.


...Water Temp...

After triggering cold water safety messages from the National Weather Service on Memorial Day Weekend, the water temperature spiked in response to the heat and humidity, reaching 79 F today. Several swimmers near the site exuberantly confirmed validity of that reading.

That is the warmest June water temperature ever recorded at Black Cat Island since records began in 2004. The average summer seasonal max is 75 at that location -- a boat-stirred, wind-exposed part of the lake. An 80-degree water temperature occurs about once every five years and last occurred in August-September 2017.


...Air Mass Thunderstorms...

There have been pop-up thunderstorms in this heat. Staying safe from those can require a great deal more vigilance than is necessary for a well-predicted squall line ahead of a front (which is more typical here.) There is no knowing which town, or which part of the lake, will have enough of an updraft to create a thunderhead over it. They generally remain stationary until the updraft cools and collapses. That has proven destructive because the collapsing air column hits the ground with a "whump" (if you can imagine) and flows out in all directions like when you point a leaf blower directly down.

Sudden outflow from collapsing thunderheads this past weekend put a tree across the road/wires in Sanbornton and caught a few lake paddlers off-guard in the otherwise-calm conditions. First, a sudden outflow wind from a collapsing storm over the Ossipees, and an hour later it became an equally-strong outflow wind from the collapsing storm over Sanbornton in the opposite direction.

Tonight some are seeing lightning over the southwestern shores, but any boater checking the radar can see there is nothing in the area. No, the radar's not broken. Thunderheads are tall, often reaching the cruising altitudes of commercial flights, and lightning in the upper portions of those clouds can be visible 100 miles away in otherwise-clear air in a wide-open area with no visual obstructions like trees. Regional radar and lightning detection indicate that thunderstorm-in-question to be over southern Vermont.


Weather quirks like this are what make this area the water equivalent of the Presidential Range in the White Mountains.

Last edited by CanisLupusArctos; 06-22-2020 at 11:27 PM.
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Old 06-22-2020, 11:06 PM   #2
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If Winni is destined to boil we had better get more lobsters!
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Old 06-22-2020, 11:25 PM   #3
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Default Great to hear from you CLA

CLA, nice to see you post about the weather, and teach people something about weather. You've been absent way too long.

In a prior life, I was an air traffic controller and loved dealing with the all weather aspects I had to face as a controller.

Keep it coming.

Dave
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Old 06-23-2020, 12:07 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by upthesaukee View Post
CLA, nice to see you post about the weather, and teach people something about weather. You've been absent way too long.

In a prior life, I was an air traffic controller and loved dealing with the all weather aspects I had to face as a controller.

Keep it coming.

Dave
Thank you Dave! I've missed you, the others, and this. Getting back to it hasn't been an overnight process and isn't finished, but it's made me realize I want to do this for a living, not just a side-thing that earns a few extra bucks. I've been in transition for a couple years after a family emergency. The pandemic lockdown provided unexpected time to just think, like Frost's "Stopping By Woods On a Snowy Evening" and being able to hear the sound of each snowflake without interruption from thoughts like "But I have miles to go before I sleep..."

A fuzzy picture has evolved of future involving some combination of weather, aviation, &emergency management in a ratio to-be-decided. Positive influences welcome.

In the pandemic "stay-home" I found myself much calmer after using screen-time for getting back into weather vs. checking news stories. Then I saw all the weather geeks now gathered on YouTube (where I want to be) were more concerned with "vortex" than "virus" and I laughed because nothing about the crowd had changed -- the toys just got fancier. It felt like coming home after a long trip around the world.

The fuzzy picture includes a desire to refurbish the web site from its 2012 status, maybe bringing others aboard, maybe crowdfunding to get out of 2012 and do things like go live... lots of thoughts, lots of "how would I do that?" and "where would I start?"
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Old 06-23-2020, 06:51 AM   #5
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Default Swim Time

The water temperature at -18" on East Bear Island this morning is 75 degrees. 🐻
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Old 06-23-2020, 10:10 AM   #6
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Default Geekdom

Quote:
Originally Posted by Barney Bear View Post
The water temperature at -18" on East Bear Island this morning is 75 degrees. 🐻
Black Cat water temp at 2 ft. deep is still 79 with a SE wind (sea breeze inland reach) getting started. You've reminded me of forum weather discussions "back in the day" when we all commented on the local variability of Winni water temps. Now graphics and virtual modeling are wayyyy better than they were, and getting better every year. How cool would it be if we all monitored lake water temps and made a colorful graphic of the thermal differences? I can imagine clicking "play" and watching it show us warm pools, cold pools, and currents shifting and flowing...

Awesomeness in the kingdom of geekdom.
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Old 07-08-2020, 03:30 PM   #7
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Default Update

The water temp yesterday was 81 F. That's about as warm as the water gets at the location, and typically only once every five years. Wind and boat waves have churned the water pretty well in the last few days, which stirs water up from the bottom (and that water is usually colder.) It appears the warmth is well-mixed in the water.

The dewpoint is a primary driver of water temp because it controls the rate of surface evaporation, a cooling process. The same thing determines how cold you feel when you get out of the water. Evaporation cools your skin, which is one reason your body sweats.

We can expect the lake water temp to climb even higher for the rest of this week because tropical air (high dewpoint) is now moving in. The dewpoint just hit 70 F for the first time this summer, about as muggy as it normally gets in New England. We have seen dewpoints in the mid-70s every few years but it's the everyday norm for the air over the Gulf of Mexico, "The Steambath of the Americas." That kind of mugginess is not out of the question for the remainder of this week in the lakes region.

Record high temperatures are NOT in the forecast, but a dewpoint in the 70s can make 88-degree air feel like 100 or more. Less evaporation means less cooling for your body (hence the issuance of heat alerts) and less cooling for the lake.
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Old 07-13-2020, 04:03 PM   #8
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Default How Nice!

The water temperature at East Bear Island this Monday morning is a toasty 81 degrees. Yippeeeeeee! 🐻
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Old 07-13-2020, 08:09 PM   #9
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The water temperature at East Bear Island this Monday morning is a toasty 81 degrees. Yippeeeeeee! 🐻
That's like Florida water temp.
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Old 07-13-2020, 10:02 PM   #10
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Brain eating amoeba temperatures .
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Old 07-13-2020, 11:21 PM   #11
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81 water temp ties the record for the last 11,000-years, so it will most likely drop back to 78 over the next couple days, before going back up. Is gonna be an 11,000-year new hot water record, for sure, golleeee! ...
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Old 07-27-2020, 04:04 PM   #12
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Default Yeow!!!

The water temperature at East Bear Island this afternoon at -18" is 83 degrees. Air temperature is 90 degrees. 🐻
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Old 07-30-2020, 07:23 AM   #13
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Arrow Great Blobs of Green...!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Barney Bear View Post
The water temperature at East Bear Island this afternoon at -18" is 83 degrees. Air temperature is 90 degrees. 🐻
We've got a July algae bloom like I've never seen before.

Four-foot green blobs!
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Old 07-31-2020, 06:12 PM   #14
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We've got a July algae bloom like I've never seen before.

Four-foot green blobs!
Really,,,

Not good, yuck.
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Old 08-01-2020, 05:06 AM   #15
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Surface water temp this morning in the broads is 79 degrees...

Dan
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