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Old 04-01-2008, 01:46 PM   #1
CanisLupusArctos
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Default Spring has sprung!

If you haven't noticed the temperature, get out there and enjoy it. The warm front that touched off yesterday's snow has now passed. The last hour has brought a huge rise in temperature. At Black Cat WeatherCam the winds are now from the SW at 12 gusting 20 mph.

Temperature now 51 degrees which is the warmest since November 14 (56 F). Dewpoint is also 50 which is the most humidity we've had in a few months. It'll feel tropical if you go outside today.

If we go past 56 today... which is possible... it will be the warmest since October.

Also today, I noticed several species of warm-season birds at the feeder. They're back from Miami. Two days ago the bald eagle flew low over Black Cat Shoals apparently to scope out how much open water there is (he spent lots of time dining there last summer and fall and I haven't seen him since December when it froze...) Haven't heard a loon yet but I'd imagine they've already sent one or two of their own to scope it out & return.
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Old 04-01-2008, 08:45 PM   #2
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Default more encouragement!

It is after 9 p.m. and temperatures remain closer to 50 than to 40... something we haven't done since before the ground got white.

Snow is now rapidly melting from rooftops and docks as well as from the snowbanks and objects underneath are becoming visible again.

What's more... tonight we have the return of a spring-summer phenomenon... take a look:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
917 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BELKNAP COUNTY...STRAFFORD COUNTY
AND MERRIMACK COUNTY THROUGH 1000 PM EDT...

AT 917 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
SALISBURY...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND WILMOT...
WEBSTER...WARNER...SUTTON...SALISBURY...NEW LONDON...HILL...
DANBURY...CONTOOCOOK AND ANDOVER THROUGH 1000 PM EDT.

PEA SIZED HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

$$

HAYES


Severe thunderstorms are impacting western Massachusetts tonight... part of the same line. Expect this sort of thing to become more common as spring progresses... but more snow is also normal until "summer" finally wins the battle of the transition season.
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Old 04-02-2008, 10:34 AM   #3
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When can we come up and rake in Moultonborough, before June?
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Old 04-03-2008, 06:01 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos View Post
If you haven't noticed the temperature, get out there and enjoy it. The warm front that touched off yesterday's snow has now passed. The last hour has brought a huge rise in temperature. At Black Cat WeatherCam the winds are now from the SW at 12 gusting 20 mph.

Temperature now 51 degrees which is the warmest since November 14 (56 F). Dewpoint is also 50 which is the most humidity we've had in a few months. It'll feel tropical if you go outside today.

If we go past 56 today... which is possible... it will be the warmest since October.

Also today, I noticed several species of warm-season birds at the feeder. They're back from Miami. Two days ago the bald eagle flew low over Black Cat Shoals apparently to scope out how much open water there is (he spent lots of time dining there last summer and fall and I haven't seen him since December when it froze...) Haven't heard a loon yet but I'd imagine they've already sent one or two of their own to scope it out & return.
CLA,
A bit off topic but do we get real ice melting on say, a 50-55 degree day?

BT
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Old 04-03-2008, 08:14 AM   #5
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Hey, today's www.unionleader.com has an article from the old Channel Seven weather guy, Fred Ward, who has a phd in meteorology from MIT, that says that the winter average temps for the last ten years have gotten colder. It's a detailed scientific type of an article.

So, where do I go to get a 'Think cld!' bumper sticker?
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Old 04-03-2008, 08:46 AM   #6
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Seems to me as I have followed ice out over the years, that ice melt occurs more as the result of the water temperature than the air temperature. Warm water begins to erode the underside of the ice. Air temperature does warm the water, which melts the ice.

Wolfman?
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Old 04-03-2008, 11:13 AM   #7
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The air temp doesn't do much to melt the ice until it gets hot, like in the 70s or 80s. This is what I usually see happen: Sun heats the rocks, which in turn melt the ice away. The wind circulates the open water around which widens the hole. The lake receives some heat from the earth which is molten rock a few miles down, and it also receives heat from the sun which impacts shallow areas the most.

The lake is constantly trying to give off this heat. During the winter, that's no problem, so it freezes and the ice grows. When the air can't support that anymore, the equation gets tilted in the favor of warmer water, which melts the ice from below.

Last year when I installed the water temp monitor at the weather station I found that humidity plays a huge role in the water temp by regulating the evaporation rate. Evaporation cools things (that's how your sweat glands work - perspiration evaporates into the air, and the evaporation takes heat from your skin.)

The lake surface does the same. When it's cooling off you'll see the "heat loss fog" that is common in fall - that's water evaporating from the lake.

Warm air can hold a lot more humidity than cold air, and when there's already a lot of humidity in the air, it can't accept much from the lake (or your skin). Evaporation gets held to a minimum, and so the lake retains more heat (and so do you.) On a hot, humid day, the water temp will rise quickly. Here in the northeast we don't get hot *dry* days very often (it's more of a desert thing) but last May we did. It was in the upper 80s with very low humidity, and the water temp barely even budged. A few weeks later we got some weather that wasn't as hot, but it was really humid. The water temp shot up like crazy.

We all know the wind plays a big role in water temp by "stirring up the water" which happens when the wave action mixes surface water down. It also has the same effect as when you sit in front of a fan to cool off... moisture evaporates more quickly (this is what Wind Chill is all about) which carries the heat away.

So, what melts the ice is mostly water temp, and that's controlled by a whole bunch of things: Wind and humidity (the two biggest) followed by solar heat and geologic heat.
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Old 04-03-2008, 12:03 PM   #8
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CLA,

You would make an excellent teacher! You are a natural.

Great job!

R2B
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Old 04-03-2008, 01:22 PM   #9
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Default It must be spring

today about 2.10 p.m. i was watching the corinthian yatch club webcam, when all of a sudden a boat went right by the docks from left to right on the screen. It had an outboard mtr. on It with a center consoule.

Come on ice out!!!!

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Old 04-03-2008, 04:30 PM   #10
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I agree with Resident 2B. You are a natural teacher. Thank you for keeping us informed.

This Weather Forum was a timely addition to an extraordinary winter.
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Old 04-03-2008, 04:36 PM   #11
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so is this Global " Warming"
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Old 04-03-2008, 06:25 PM   #12
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so is this Global " Warming"

It actually is..there was more water content in the snow thus indicating warmer than normal winter temps.
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Old 04-04-2008, 06:38 AM   #13
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It actually is..there was more water content in the snow thus indicating warmer than normal winter temps.
That's pretty funny.
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Old 04-04-2008, 08:10 AM   #14
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It actually is..there was more water content in the snow thus indicating warmer than normal winter temps.
Tipper, is that you?
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Old 04-04-2008, 10:46 AM   #15
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Default Thank you both

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I agree with Resident 2B. You are a natural teacher. Thank you for keeping us informed.

This Weather Forum was a timely addition to an extraordinary winter.
Thank you both. Funny you should mention teaching... at the height of my EMT career several years ago I used to teach CPR and first aid, and I've missed it ever since.

On the global warming thing, the debate keeps getting more interesting on both sides. Recently the founder of The Weather Channel said he wanted to sue Al Gore (http://global-warming.accuweather.co...der_wants.html) for not producing scientific evidence of global warming. The intent of the lawsuit seems like it is to bring out all the numbers, data, etc. that scientists have so that everyone can see what it concludes. This has come on the heels of recent evidence that the earth's rate of warming slowed down or even stopped since the late 90s, and other groups that have challenged Al Gore on scientific evidence.

I don't know enough to take a stance yet. What I can say is that it's good to reduce energy consumption no matter what, for many reasons other than global warming. But with the global warming debate, what's coming out is interesting (do your internet searches for both sides of it.) If the earth really isn't warming like it was a few years ago, then the melting ice caps can be attributed to ocean water temps that haven't responded yet (see our earlier discussion about how the water temp plays the biggest role in iceout.) Increased severe weather (tornadoes, etc.) could be attributed to the increased presence of cold air intruding into warm air. To get severe weather you need warm air existing with much colder air trying to nose its way in. This clash of pre-existing warm and invading cold produces the turbulence necessary for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. In places where it's generally warm (no clash with cold) there isn't as much severe weather. So I can see how it all might fit.

On the other hand, the problems we had with all the snow this winter were caused by warmer-than-normal temps. We had a lot of snow/rain mix this winter, and we had some good rainstorms on top of the snow. This is what caused all the roof collapses, and it's also the reason there's still 2 feet of snow on the ground. All the rain water soaked the snow, which froze, and it takes a lot longer to melt solid ice than fluffy snow. Cold air produces fluffy snow, and if this had been an extremely cold winter, we probably wouldn't have seen any roof collapses (the powder wouldn't have stuck to the roofs) and since powder snow doesn't last long in the sun, we would've had bare ground by now.

The thing is, the winter wasn't too much warmer than normal, or we would've had either a rainy or a warm/dry winter. So there was enough cold air to support the snow we had.

A degree colder, and it all would've been powder -- twice as much snow, but light and fluffy. A degree warmer, and we would've had rain all winter with at least a couple ski areas declaring bankruptcy. So the temperature found the exact spot necessary to give us all the "snow overload".
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Old 04-04-2008, 11:33 AM   #16
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It actually is..there was more water content in the snow thus indicating warmer than normal winter temps.
Last season when we had less snow but it was colder was an indication of?
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Old 04-04-2008, 12:15 PM   #17
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Last season when we had less snow but it was colder was an indication of?
Arctic cold air.

As we all know in summer, the warmer air gets, the more humidity (moisture) it can hold. Extremely cold air has a very low capacity for moisture. When it is "in control" as it was last winter, it's usually pretty dry. Any snow we get is also usually pretty dry. In order to have snow you need warm air trying to move in... this brings the necessary moisture. Since the cold air can't hold the new moisture it falls out of the air (precipitates) as snow. If the arctic cold air is well-established over a large area like it was last winter, it tends to deflect other weather systems and air masses because it's heavy, dense air that doesn't move easily.
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Old 04-04-2008, 12:58 PM   #18
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Arctic cold air.

As we all know in summer, the warmer air gets, the more humidity (moisture) it can hold. Extremely cold air has a very low capacity for moisture. When it is "in control" as it was last winter, it's usually pretty dry. Any snow we get is also usually pretty dry. In order to have snow you need warm air trying to move in... this brings the necessary moisture. Since the cold air can't hold the new moisture it falls out of the air (precipitates) as snow. If the arctic cold air is well-established over a large area like it was last winter, it tends to deflect other weather systems and air masses because it's heavy, dense air that doesn't move easily.
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Old 04-04-2008, 01:04 PM   #19
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CLA, thanks for your reasoned well thought out and balanced response to a topic that can and has spiraled out of control here before. I enjoy your posts, your web cam and your weather info. I also enjoy sailing by your cam many, many times during the summer, let's hope for good sailing weather, warm would be nice too.
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Old 04-04-2008, 02:36 PM   #20
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Last season when we had less snow but it was colder was an indication of?
One season does not a climate make.

Oh my God, I sound like Yoda.
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Old 04-04-2008, 03:29 PM   #21
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Rose, I love your response! It doesn't have to be Yoda... I could imagine such words spoken by the kind of Karate master no one can overcome.

To add to what Rose said, even a lifetime is usually not long enough to tell if a climate is changing. The climate has varied a lot over several thousand years, and even within the last 500 years it's gone through cycles. This is what makes it so hard to prove "what caused the most recent global warming and is it going to continue?" If we caused it, then the answer is yes. If we didn't, then we need to find the cause and figure out what it plans to do next.

ITD, thank you. My cam's viewers (the ones that email) like it when you and other people ride past in sailboats. They say that seeing a sailboat in the view is pleasantly distracting while they are at work... so think of yourself as indirectly lowering workplace productivity as you sail back and forth in my cam and the other lake cams that distract people at work.

Getting back to the "spring has sprung" theme....

1) Today's weathermap has a classic spring pattern of severe weather across the south (warm air surging north from the Gulf) and clashing with cold air further north (lots of heavy rain and snow up and down the east coast.) Today's snow was normal spring weather here in NH... part of the back-and-forth battle that started in the last few days. The battle will continue with spits of snow alternating with 50+ temps. Eventually this battle will give way to sunny and 80 degrees... just a question of how soon.

2) Moths are outside now.. just a few... and I saw the first few flies yesterday. Lots of spring bird species now. About 2 weeks ago I saw the first robin while driving through Madbury.

3) Wanna get rid of the snow in your yard? I just stumbled on a solution. I had reason to walk through the yard and found my feet "post-holing" through the crust into the deep snow every few steps. Now in the areas of the snow that I stomped down and loosened (with my feet) the sun has melted them down to bare ground. The snow that still has its crust is holding on. So... if you want to get rid of your snow faster, I say you should go out and start stomping it and kicking it around, loosening it up. Do a dance on it, get friends to join. Maybe have a snow-stomping BBQ, have a volleyball game on it... make a fun day of it. Break up the top crust and the sun will melt the granular stuff underneath.
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Old 04-04-2008, 05:41 PM   #22
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2) Moths are outside now.. just a few... and I saw the first few flies yesterday. Lots of spring bird species now. About 2 weeks ago I saw the first robin while driving through Madbury.
We are already getting ticks on the dogs in Dover. I have pulled off 5 this week. I was unpleasantly surprised.

'Tis the season...
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Old 04-04-2008, 06:33 PM   #23
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We are already getting ticks on the dogs in Dover. I have pulled off 5 this week. I was unpleasantly surprised.

'Tis the season...
It's amazing how early those things come out and how late they hang around even when you don't think the weather would allow. I've learned to start with the Advantix in March and continue applying through November. My dog did have a weak positive test for Lyme's years ago, so I'm extra cautious.
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Old 04-04-2008, 06:41 PM   #24
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Unhappy The Weather Channel should talk

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Recently the founder of The Weather Channel said he wanted to sue Al Gore (http://global-warming.accuweather.co...der_wants.html) for not producing scientific evidence of global warming.
Funny, I've wanted to sue the Weather Channel for wasting a good opportunity for educating people about weather and climate by putting some absolute drek on cable...when they're not running commercials for the Mantis tiller.
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Old 04-05-2008, 07:19 AM   #25
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To the founder's credit, he's no longer with The Weather Channel. He founded what we all call "old-school weather channel" when they could have been called the weather version of CNN, and no ads either. In the last few years they've found themselves (like a lot of TV media) having to make the hard decision between catering to the "brainless-short-attention-span/all-about-me" generation, or go off the air for lack of financial support. Everywhere you look, networks are putting total brainless hyped-up entertainment on TV because today's audiences have a much lower tolerance for real information or the slower pace necessary to report it.

I'm surprised at the report of ticks in the state already! Doesn't take them long after the snow melt to come out of hiding. All of yesterday's inch of snow has now melted, and the lake ice continues to slowly do the same. Radar indicates rain moving out of the area and slow clearing is on the forecast for today. We've actually started the day at freezing, rather than below freezing... another sign that spring is here.
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Old 04-05-2008, 08:33 AM   #26
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Default Little green shoots!

I am more than a little shocked to look out my window this morning, on the sunny side of the house, and see little green shoots popping up! The last of the snow melted from this spot only three days ago! Now if the enormous piles in the front of the house would just melt, I could get out there and really start enjoying spring!
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Old 04-06-2008, 05:02 PM   #27
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Default Crocusses!

In a south-facing area of the yard where the sun has melted all the snow away, there are now crocuses with flowers ready to open. They're only a few feet away from the edge of the 18-inch snowpack that exists everywhere else.
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Old 04-07-2008, 07:50 AM   #28
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In a south-facing area of the yard where the sun has melted all the snow away, there are now crocuses with flowers ready to open. They're only a few feet away from the edge of the 18-inch snowpack that exists everywhere else.
Same thing in my yard. One nice warm area melted earlier than anywhere else, and as soon as it did, those crocuses (or is it crocii?) popped right up.
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Old 04-07-2008, 04:46 PM   #29
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I don't see green anything in my yard yet..although the shrubs are visible now. Still plenty of white ground cover let along 7ft snowbanks edging my driveway.
But the good news is that the last of the snow left my roof today!
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Old 04-07-2008, 05:27 PM   #30
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Default Spring!

I, too, see shoots -- tiger lillies, actually. Once the snow melted along the border of the driveway it took about 36 hours for them to show. The garden, however, still has about 4 feet of snow on it from snowblowing the deck. At least we'll have an early summer bloom to look forward to! Crocuses in June...that will be interesting. ;-)
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Old 04-07-2008, 08:54 PM   #31
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If the forecast holds, it won't go below freezing for several nights later this week. So the melting will continue around the clock for the first time in awhile.

Hopefully a lot of the cold stuff will disappear this week.
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Old 04-08-2008, 12:02 PM   #32
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Default Canuslupusarctos

If 1/2 of my college professors could have explained the concepts that they were teaching 1/2 as clearly as canuslupsusarctos, my grades would have been twice as good most of the time although I was much younger then maybe I just pay better attention now
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Old 04-08-2008, 12:50 PM   #33
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Seems perhaps a bit strange, but I was happy to see the frost on my windshield this morning. Yes, the frost means it is below freezing. But it also means it is warming up because it's the first time there's been enough moisture content in the air to create frost!
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Old 04-08-2008, 10:09 PM   #34
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Default The stomping worked

Sman, thank you. I can't say I was the greatest student in college either. I don't remember much of what they put on the blackboard but boy am I glad they ran as many field trips as they did. The Earth Sciences dept. had its own 15-pass. van!

Now I'm happy to announce that the snow-stomping has worked! The area of the yard where I stomped around in the snow a few days ago became totally bare today, while the areas where I haven't disturbed the surface of the snow are still 12"+ deep.

So I recommend getting out there to stomp snow while its warm out, if you want it to go away quicker! You'll need sunlight to speed up the process...
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Old 04-09-2008, 08:29 AM   #35
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Great idea, CLA! At the risk of looking as though I'm throwing a temper tantrum in public, I'll be spending some time in the front yard today, stomping!
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Old 04-09-2008, 11:17 AM   #36
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I find an ice auger and several "colorful metaphors" work well to get rid of the snow, but I guess I'll try stomping.
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Old 04-09-2008, 02:58 PM   #37
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Stomping (and other footwork) loosens it up. Smaller pieces/granules melt faster. When you throw a whole steak on the grill it will take longer to cook than if you chop it up into little pieces... snow's the same way. This year it all froze together into one piece.... which has taken forever to cook. Time to chop it up into smaller pieces, especially while the pan is sizzling like it is today... the high is 56 so far.
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Old 04-15-2008, 06:58 AM   #38
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My official indicator of Spring has arrived!

The peepers were peeping here in north central MA Sunday night!
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Old 04-15-2008, 08:21 AM   #39
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We had a saying when I lived in Vermont - it wasn't Spring until the peepers froze in twice.
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Old 04-15-2008, 09:17 AM   #40
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Janet, looks like you're going to see those peepers frozen in at least twice this week. Last night we went down to 25 degrees and the open water re-froze by morning. It was comical watching the mergansers walking around on the same water they'd been swimming in yesterday. The peepers have made a little bit of noise already, so last night was freeze-in #1 for them.

I'd like to say they'll only be frozen in only one more time, but the next two nights actually hold pretty good chances for below-freezing. Don't worry, it's not because spring isn't here. Our cold nights this week are the result of good weather. Clear skies, calm wind and dry air allow the day's heat to rise away from the earth (radiational cooling, common in the desert at night.) Aiding this radiational cooling is the presence of the white lake ice, which acts as a giant reflector for directing the day's heat up & away.

This will continue until later in the week when we get enough daytime heat to keep us above freezing overnight even if we do get radiational cooling.
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Old 04-15-2008, 04:57 PM   #41
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Default Peepers?

I am so sorry, but I need to know. What is the real name for the species you are calling peepers? Are they birds, frogs, or bugs? Thanks for the enlightenment.
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Old 04-15-2008, 06:26 PM   #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ccy View Post
I am so sorry, but I need to know. What is the real name for the species you are calling peepers? Are they birds, frogs, or bugs? Thanks for the enlightenment.
Upon Googling them, I got this page in the search results:
http://www.enature.com/fieldguides/d...?recnum=AR0014

You can hear peepers along with other sounds of spring (including loons), by going to the WeatherCam and clicking on the loon where it says "Sounds, videos of the lake". The peepers recording is called "Marsh Song."
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