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Old 02-09-2008, 05:31 PM   #1
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Default Storm for Feb 13, 2008?

Folks, it is starting to look like the mid week event for this coming week will be a decent snow storm.

The models are not in complete agreement, and the GFS really cannot be trusted 4 to 5 days out, but it is looking like something will develop off the mid-Atlantic coast and move northeast. We should have cold air in place and the upper levels also look cold, so if a storm comes up and is close enough, it will be snow.

This has the potential to be a major storm.

Time will tell.

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Old 02-09-2008, 06:12 PM   #2
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THATS four days out.

Winter of '69, w/o saying name of forecaster, he said 2-3" flurries; we got 3-4 FEET, in a few days.
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Old 02-09-2008, 07:39 PM   #3
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No more, no more............My back hurts from all the shoveling and there is no place to put the new snow. Isn't it spring yet?
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Old 02-11-2008, 08:13 AM   #4
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Looks like the NWS is now calling for snow Tuesday night / Wednesday morning then switching to a mix Wednesday afternoon. Not that we don't have plenty of the white stuff, but I hope they're wrong about the mixing...
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Old 02-11-2008, 03:39 PM   #5
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Default Monday Update

Just checked things out and it still looks like a storm for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast or QPF is looking like 1" to 1.5" of liquid so if it is all snow at a 10:1 ratio, that would be 10" to 15". However, I do not think we will see all snow or if we do, it will be wet and more in the 6:1to 8:1 ratio range. Although it is now very cold, the models show a Low Level Jet from the south with warm and moist air during the storm. This should impact accumulations somewhat.

I would guess that we will have a Y1 to Y1.5 storm in the Laconia area, or about 7" to 10" by the time it ends on Wednesday. If we get the 10:1 ratio it would be more, and if the warm air lifts farther north, it could be less. It is possible for a period of ice in the lakes region, so be aware of that.

South of the lakes, it is likely to be mixed with rain for some period of time and the mountain should see all snow. Mass school vacation week is next week, so the deeper cover is good for the ski businesses.

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Old 02-11-2008, 06:52 PM   #6
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Default this has happened before

This scenario has happened before, in this winter. I forget which storm it was, because there've been so many, but we should look closely at what happened in order to figure this one out.

There is low pressure moving up to our west. A secondary low is forecast to get going off the NJ coast and move along the shoreline. The first low will bring up warm air that will threaten to change the snow to mix/ice/rain. The second low will be on the other side of us, giving us its cold sector.

So the question is, will the coastal low get strong enough to keep the other one from bringing in too much warm air? If I remember correctly, the last time this scenario happened (this winter) the coastal low got stronger than the models predicted and kept pulling cold air down at the lower levels. As a result, we never went over to plain rain, as the models were insisting would happen.

At this point, we have so much liquid locked up in the existing snowpack that any sudden change to spring weather (or melting rains) will not be a good thing. Since the snowpack formed on Dec. 3 we've had over 7 inches of precip, most of which is still on the ground as snow. For comparison, the May 2006 floods produced just over 6 inches of rain over a period of several days.
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Old 02-11-2008, 07:13 PM   #7
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Default Yuki has quit..

I have been informed that no amount of catnip will get him out of the house.
And we call them dumb animals.

So.. in an effort to get him back to work.. It's come to this..

You Pay Shipping..

Name:  Free Snow 3.jpg
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Size:  75.6 KB

Name:  Free Snow 2.jpg
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Old 02-11-2008, 08:58 PM   #8
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Default a whole new scale!

Wow, this creates the Steve Index... a scale for snow deep enough to lose Yuki like a BB in a boxcar.

And that looks like an S1 to S1.5 snowbank!
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Old 02-11-2008, 09:06 PM   #9
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Question View tax abatement?

Look at the bright side Steve.

You can take those pictures right on down to the Gilford assessor and get immediate relief from the view tax!!!
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Old 02-11-2008, 09:39 PM   #10
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Default My Neighbors can apply too!

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Look at the bright side Steve.

You can take those pictures right on down to the Gilford assessor and get immediate relief from the view tax!!!
With me standing out in front of their house in that get-up they would qualify for a serious view tax abatement!
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Old 02-12-2008, 07:06 AM   #11
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With me standing out in front of their house in that get-up they would qualify for a serious view tax abatement!
Nice scarf! Did you pick that out yourself? (sorry)

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Old 02-12-2008, 07:59 AM   #12
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A ten below, sunny morning here in Waterville Valley and some jogger just run by on the public sidewalk that the town keeps clear with its' $40,000. sidewalk, sno-thrower....how about that....jogging at ten below....w/ a face mask.

Quite the machine, it's a Canadian-made, Bombardier, diesel-powered, sidewalk sno-thrower that cuts a clean 48" path along WV's miles of sidewalks.
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Old 02-12-2008, 09:54 AM   #13
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Default That's a good deal...

FLL,
If they got it for 40K and it's the typical Bombardier that a lot of municipalities run, that's a steal. They are 100K new.

BT
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Old 02-12-2008, 11:22 AM   #14
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Default Snow!

I just saw on Fox News Channel that 12"+ is forecast. That settles it the 4WD is the vehicle of choice for the trip up this weekend. They tell me it is snowing here in Bedminster, NJ but since we don't have windows I cannot tell. If we had windows all I would see is worms and gophers.
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Old 02-12-2008, 12:15 PM   #15
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Steve, 2 Yuki replacements free to a good, err, any home! The only drawback is one of them has also refused to leave the house since the temp went below 20.

Maybe I should have kept that last part to myself.
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Old 02-12-2008, 04:39 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by gtxrider View Post
They tell me it is snowing here in Bedminster, NJ but since we don't have windows I cannot tell. If we had windows all I would see is worms and gophers.
Gophers are also known as ground hogs. See R2B's thread about NOAA replacing people with groundhogs. If you had windows where you are, you'd have the best weather prediction advantage among any of us! I've heard somewhere (Farmer's Almanac, maybe?) that earthworms are good for predicting weather too.

Winter Storm Warning in effect for tonight and tomorrow. We're looking for around 6 inches of heavy wet snow followed by up to a half-inch of ice accum.

Prepare for power outages with this one.
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Old 02-12-2008, 06:31 PM   #17
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Default Sorry... the "Barn is Full"

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Steve, 2 Yuki replacements free to a good, err, any home! The only drawback is one of them has also refused to leave the house since the temp went below 20.

Maybe I should have kept that last part to myself.
We already have 7 cats...So we don't need anymore! I interviewed several of the others for Yuki's job.... so far. no takers. ( I'm thinking about upping the pay to fresh haddock)
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Old 02-12-2008, 06:39 PM   #18
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[QUOTE=Blue Thunder;63317]Nice scarf! Did you pick that out yourself? (sorry)

Yes I did... my wife had picked out a bright blue one (to match my eyes and sweater) and I couldn't find my reindeer headpiece.. so I settled for the ugly stocking cap and the fuzzy Red Scarf
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Old 02-12-2008, 08:46 PM   #19
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I interviewed several of the others for Yuki's job.... so far. no takers.
Our male cat, Nick, would love to take Yuki's job. The idiot always wants to follow the dog out, even though I know as soon as he hits the snow, he'd be right back in. He's just dumb enough to do this over and over and over...he'd never remember he doesn't like the snow. His sister, Nora, would probably follow after a while. Anyone want to give us a house so we can move up there?
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Old 02-13-2008, 09:52 AM   #20
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so what's it like up there this morning??
radar is showing mix; but looks to be snow on the cams...
how much fell overnight?
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Old 02-13-2008, 09:53 AM   #21
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Default Lots of snow

We got 10-12" of fluffy overnight, and it changed to sleet around 8:30. Now its a mix of sleet and a few big flakes.
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Old 02-13-2008, 10:27 AM   #22
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Default Windows wouldn't work

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Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos View Post
Gophers are also known as ground hogs. See R2B's thread about NOAA replacing people with groundhogs. If you had windows where you are, you'd have the best weather prediction advantage among any of us! I've heard somewhere (Farmer's Almanac, maybe?) that earthworms are good for predicting weather too.

Winter Storm Warning in effect for tonight and tomorrow. We're looking for around 6 inches of heavy wet snow followed by up to a half-inch of ice accum.

Prepare for power outages with this one.
GTXrider would indeed see worms and gophers out the window. Since his building is built into the side of a big hill, the section where he is would have an underground view. He might also see moles along with the other critters. I guess MA Bell wants everyone to watch what their monitoring and not be taking in the outdoor scenery. Actually, I think part of it is for security. Like the Forum Flyer he's in a secret location.

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Old 02-13-2008, 01:09 PM   #23
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Default Another big snow storm... with ice

The snow total on Black Cat was 8.7 inches. It changed to sleet at 8 a.m. and then to freezing rain around 10. It has been freezing rain ever since. The trees and power lines are now totally coated.

I just got off the phone with the NWS-Gray who told me they're getting more reports of power outages. However, the observer in Wolfeborough told them that it started raining so heavy that it was knocking the ice off of things (it takes a lighter rain to freeze more, or else the force of the rainfall will bust up the ice buildup.)

The temperature is 30 degrees and we're not likely to see it go up much for several hours. The saving grace with this storm is that the air is a bit warmer where the rain is coming from, so it's not freezing as quickly as it could. Also, the snow was mostly powder, so the trees didn't get cemented over before the changeover.

The snow is now cement, though. I'm glad I got the major shoveling done before the changeover, because the parts I left for 'after breakfast' made me feel like a contestant on 'America's Biggest Loser.' Any roads that still need plowing will now require bigger equipment - this stuff is full of water now.

Snowpack here is now 32 inches. As I mentioned in a few days ago, we've had a lot of water come down from the sky as snow and most of it is still on the ground. The reason the snowpack isn't higher is because it's constantly compacting down on its own weight. Today's water content is an inch and a half. My guess is that what's on the ground now has water content that easily surpasses the rainfall of the May 2006 flood. If what's on the lake ice melted quickly (ONLY what's on the lake ice) the water level would rise about 4-5 inches. Now add runoff from the mountain snowpack, the islands, and shores... inflow from rivers... you do the math.

When I posed this curiosity to the NWS a few minutes ago he said they were beginning to look at the situation. Next week, he said a hydrologist will be testing the snowpack in various places to measure its water content. This, in turn, will help the Northeast River Forecast Center in Taunton MA to start crunching the numbers for spring flood potential. As long as the weather stays cold enough to give us powder snow, doesn't rain, and spring comes very slowly over a period of several weeks, we should be fine.

The season snow total is now 89.1 inches. The first half of February has brought us 31.6 inches, and February's precipitation total (melted snow, rain, etc. is 3.96"

More info on today's storm is on www.blackcatnh.com/weather.
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Old 02-13-2008, 01:31 PM   #24
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How do you determine snowpack over such a long period of time?
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Old 02-13-2008, 01:46 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rose View Post
Our male cat, Nick, would love to take Yuki's job. The idiot always wants to follow the dog out, even though I know as soon as he hits the snow, he'd be right back in. He's just dumb enough to do this over and over and over...he'd never remember he doesn't like the snow. His sister, Nora, would probably follow after a while. Anyone want to give us a house so we can move up there?
I was going to donate our Sophie C, who sounds just like Nick. When I let her out this morning she walked off the porch, fell on her side in the snow (wrecks the Yuki gauge when they do that!), disappeared, stood up and came right back in!
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Old 02-13-2008, 01:58 PM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos View Post
The snow total on Black Cat was 8.7 inches.
I noticed that the Manchester Union leader is reporting the snow depth on Black Cat Island!!
SEE SNOW TOTALS
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Old 02-13-2008, 02:00 PM   #27
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Just checked the msn weather forecast for the next three days for 03253-Meredith and it shows Thurs-Fri-Sat having colder highs, and colder lows with each passing day.

What will that do to all this wet, heavy, concrete-like snow as the rain is now falling? Me-thinks today is the day to get to woik on it...mush you huskies mush!

If I have a heart attack while shoveling this stuff, it's been a blast!
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Old 02-13-2008, 02:14 PM   #28
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If I have a heart attack while shoveling this stuff, it's been a blast!
Don't go yet FLL.I enjoy your skewed view of lifes trials and tribulation.I really do!
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Old 02-13-2008, 03:19 PM   #29
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Default 2nd !

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Don't go yet FLL.I enjoy your skewed view of lifes trials and tribulation.I really do!
I second that... We need the "class clown" ( I mean that in a nice way)
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Old 02-13-2008, 03:53 PM   #30
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Yah, stick around FLL, your humor and resolve is unmatched... Ten...four... good buddy?...

I say... come on back?
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Old 02-13-2008, 05:03 PM   #31
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Default Flood Warning

Quote:
Originally Posted by tpabrad View Post
How do you determine snowpack over such a long period of time?
I put a yard stick in the season's first snowpack, and left it there. I did this in 2 places in the yard that are good indicators of how much snow is on the ground in general. If a place gets too much sunlight makes it read too low, and nearly day-long shade makes it read unnaturally high unless the area you're measuring is meant to represent the middle of a dark forest.

NOAA and various ski patrols out west sometimes use fancier equipment designed to measure several attributes of a snowpack that is several feet deep.

UPDATE: There is now a flood warning for Belknap County. Due to the snow that's already fallen in the last several days, there is no place for the rain water to go. Streets and low-lying areas are beginning to flood. The rain is still freezing here... but low clouds and fog (ceiling about 200 feet above ground) show that the warm front is just about upon us. Sudden low clouds and fog are usually present as the warm air finally breaks into ground level. The warm air will melt some of the ice, but at the same time it will add to the flood problem.
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Old 02-13-2008, 05:37 PM   #32
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You're a hoot Less, just wouldn't be the same without you. Just never know what's going to be in an FLL post.
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