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Old 06-03-2008, 08:13 AM   #1
chipj29
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Default Heat wave?

Will we see 3+ days above 90, starting on Saturday? Very possible according to some of the models. Look for some records to be set in the Washington DC-NYC area (100 possible), records even possible up into Boston. Even if we don't hit 90, we will still be well above normal for early June. Precursor of things to come this summer?
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Old 06-03-2008, 10:26 AM   #2
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Even if we don't hit 90, we will still be well above normal for early June. Precursor of things to come this summer?
Frankly, I still don't believe Winter is over yet.
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Old 06-03-2008, 10:32 AM   #3
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I'm going for 90 for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday at the lake. Beyond that, the pattern does look like it wants to stay in place for a while.

A precursor of things to come? Yes and no. I don't see steady-hot, but a continuation of what we've seen nationwide for the last 2 months: Back-and-forth. The polar region has very cold air over it, and has been sending us strong cold fronts. Every time they come down out of Canada, there's been an equal-opposite reaction from the south -- a northward push of heat.

In the Rockies during the last couple weeks they've seen a few days of 90+ followed by a few days of snow. My friends in Phoenix said it was over 100 one day and then down to the 60s the next day. While we won't get that extreme, I do see that sort of battle continuing through at least the first half of summer.

That is why I think everyone in this area should review severe weather safety rules. The battle I mentioned above is the reason for all the severe weather we've been hearing about on the news the last couple months, and the only reason we haven't been getting it here in New England is because we are the last place in the country for the summertime air to reach. We've gotten the cold fronts, but in New England they haven't had much heat to play with.

Now they will. The heat will reach us, as it normally should at this time of year, but I see plenty of reason for the cold fronts to keep coming. The cold air will still be at its source long after this first potential heat wave gives us a break from it. Last winter there was a significant growth of sea ice in the arctic (following several years of loss), and that is likely the source of some of the cold air that's been doing battle over the US this spring. There are a few other reasons I think the cold air will be on the warpath this summer.

My prediction at the moment is for a back-and-forth summer with lots of battle during each cool-down, and "hail sales" from the car dealers. A summer for the weather geeks with their video cameras, and who knows, we might see a live broadcast from TWC's Jim Cantore somewhere in New England once or twice this summer.
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Old 06-03-2008, 03:12 PM   #4
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I'm going for 90 for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday at the lake. Beyond that, the pattern does look like it wants to stay in place for a while.
I agree with you... looks like an amazing pattern for early summertime warmth around these parts through next week. I think it will take until Saturday to get the heat this far north, though... warm fronts have a notorious way of getting hung up in NY this time of year!
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Old 06-03-2008, 05:59 PM   #5
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Default Front to hang up?

Good point, meteotrade. The warm fronts do hang up in NY state at this time of year, and tonight Joe Cupo on Ch 6 Portland was forecasting just that. He doesn't think the heat & humidity will get here until Sunday. I haven't looked at the models since this morning so I can't comment on this update. Maybe later.
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Old 06-04-2008, 09:08 AM   #6
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I leave for Florida next week. 80's and 90's sounds great for my aching back and golf, but I don't trust it will stay long. Give me Heat
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Old 06-04-2008, 09:26 AM   #7
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Default coastal influence

Meteotrade, you called it! Looks like the summertime air will get hung up with the coastal influence for a while instead of barging right in here. That means those in western New England will see the heat and humidity a day or two before those at the ocean. Most of the weekend will feature chilly maritime air (hear the foghorn) along the coast, but places from Plymouth to Lebanon might get into the mid-70s Friday, and 80 Saturday, even while areas from Alton to Portsmouth get temps in the 50s with drizzle and northeast winds. Sunday now appears to be the day the southwest flow gets strong enough to beat back the ocean influence and bring the hot/humid stuff to all of New England.

Think of the next few days as "Time to get your air conditioner installed." I have a feeling you're going to need it during the Sunday-Monday timeframe.

As I mentioned in my latest forecast on the WeatherCenter site, the boundary line between the hot/humid air and this chilly air (that we have now) has been the focal point for severe weather. Today the boundary runs from Ohio to the mid-Atlantic and there have been thunderstorms powerful enough to produce tornadoes along it.

With that said, and worth repeating, now is the time to review severe weather safety rules. This has been a record year for tornadoes across the nation so far, and I think New England will start to share in it once the hot/cold battle line gets near us. Until now, we haven't had the battle line because we've just been cold. Even after the heat gets here, the cold will continue to fight for re-control.

As New England's severe weather season gets set to begin (as it normally does every summer) remember that this year many DPW budgets got wiped out by last winter's enormous snowfall combined with unexpectedly high fuel prices, and the municipalities haven't figured out what to do yet. Therefore it would be a good idea if we were all ready to help with storm cleanup at any time this summer, and to assist neighbors. A spirit of volunteerism, even if you're on vacation, helps reduce further unforeseen burdens on the public system, which in turn may save a lot of us from further headaches at town meeting.
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Old 06-04-2008, 08:05 PM   #8
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Default Who needs the weather channel...

...when we have Canis to show us the way?!!!

Thank you for the great updates and information. My husband thinks I'm a bit touched as one of my dream vacations is going on a tornado chase for 2 weeks.

While I'm fascinated with severe weather, I certainly don't want to have any more trees fall during the high winds. We've lost three in as many years from storm winds (summer and winter) and I fret that the next one may not afford us any luck.


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Old 06-05-2008, 01:04 PM   #9
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Thank you for the great updates and information. My husband thinks I'm a bit touched as one of my dream vacations is going on a tornado chase for 2 weeks.



GB
You're not alone! There has been enough demand to drive the success of several storm chase businesses. The one whose website I know off-hand is www.twistersisters.com. Two women, best friends, will take you to see the severe stuff. The Twister Sisters have been featured on late night talk shows as well as the morning news shows.

Anyway.... It's questionable whether or not we'll get an official heat wave out of this weekend, since three consecutive days of 90+ temps are needed to make it official. It will depend on how quickly and how far east temperatures rise on Saturday. I think 90 is a good bet west of I-93, while Portsmouth and the Maine Coast will remain in the 58-65 range with murky not muggy. Lighthouse weather. The lake will be caught in the middle, with higher temps in Center Harbor than in Alton. At this point I'll go for 80 in Center Harbor and 70 in Alton. It's possible that the hot and humid stuff may gain enough momentum to boot out more of the ocean influence than I'm currently guessing it will. If that happened, it would be warmer in more places on Saturday, possibly enough to give the lake a chance at 90 on Saturday... but we'll see.

Sunday will be hot and humid. Period.

So will Monday.

Just remember... review those severe weather safety rules and mental readiness. The cold air is uncaged this year (It's snowing in Steamboat Springs Colo. today). With the summer season finally reaching New England, it'll just be a matter of time before the cold starts picking fights with it. Given the intensity of the fights we've been seeing everywhere else for the last 2 months, it's a good bet that we'll be sharing in some of it this summer. It means practical things like if you're coming on vaca. for a couple of weeks, it probably wouldn't hurt to throw a chainsaw in the trunk if you have room, along with the usual power-outage supplies. Preparing your family for a severe thunderstorm or a tornado is very similar to preparing for a fire alarm - except you need to choose your meeting place in the most sturdy, reinforced, lowest, central part of the structure... away from windows (where glass shatters and flies) and have a mutual plan for occupying it quickly.

If you are a meteorology maniac, you gotta leave the keys in your chase vehicle, make sure the HAM radio is working, and have a blank tape in the video camera at all times!
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Old 06-05-2008, 07:48 PM   #10
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(It's snowing in Steamboat Springs Colo. today).
I was in Fort Collins, CO until this morning. The weather report on the local station reported the mountains got 4-6" last night, and they still look very white from a distance.

But it was nice, warm, and comfortable down on the plains.
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Old 06-05-2008, 08:28 PM   #11
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Click here to see the webcam at Copper Mt, Colorado -- and check out the remaining snow.
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Old 06-06-2008, 07:30 AM   #12
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Default 90+

The weather guy on WMUR was saying this morning to expect temps "well into the 90's" on Sat, Sun, Mon, and possibly Tuesday. Tuesday depends on what time of day the cold front comes through. If that front comes through Tuesday afternoon, my guess is that we could have some pretty severe t-storms.
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Old 06-06-2008, 11:06 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by Merrymeeting View Post
I was in Fort Collins, CO until this morning. The weather report on the local station reported the mountains got 4-6" last night, and they still look very white from a distance.

But it was nice, warm, and comfortable down on the plains.
My brother and his family live in Ft. Collins CO. He is the founder and President of Velo One Racing (bicycle)

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Old 06-06-2008, 11:35 AM   #14
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Yup, I agree with that, Chipj29. All week long the "coastal factor" has been a tossup because of the way it usually impacts New England's first occurrence of summer weather. It appears that this weekend, the warm air will be strong enough to push back the coastal air in most places. The oceanfront will likely be a place for natural air conditioning tomorrow but most of the rest of us will be hitting 90 tomorrow and well into the 90s on Sunday.

This will be coupled with very high humidity, which will keep temperatures from dropping much overnight (water vapor is one of the most powerful greenhouse gases!)

For this weekend, watch yourself, your family, and those around you for signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. We're going right from the freezer into the fire, skipping the frying pan altogether (ain't that New England?) Therefore many will be caught off-guard this weekend. Limit caffiene and alcohol consumption because they both dehydrate you, as do drinks with lots of sugar (your body tries to flush it out.) This includes sport drinks, which many athletic trainers dilute 50/50 with water before serving. Stay hydrated... wear loose, well-vented clothing, and maximize your body's built-in cooling system. Heat stroke (when your body temp gets to 105 and up) is a medical emergency on a par with head injury, because the brain starts to die at that temperature. Treatment is exactly what common sense says: Cool the person off (move to cooler surroundings, wet down with cold water, ice packs, fans, etc.) give fluids only if they can swallow, and call 911.

One of the first signs of excess body temp is altered mental status, altered personality, irritability, etc. as the brain's continuous monitoring of the body starts to detect a trend it doesn't like. Cramps, nausea and fatigue are other things to look for.

Best yet: Every time you start to feel hot, take a dip in the lake which is unusually cool for this time of year (still hasn't reached 60!) I'm guessing it'll shoot up to the upper 60s by Monday, but that's still a chilly swim!

For severe weather, the arrival of the heat and humidity means we're now going have the "fuel." We have to start watching out for the "arsonist." That would be anything capable of destabilizing the hot, humid air and sending it rising rapidly - a motion that forms tall thunderheads, the bad boys of weather. As mentioned before, the cold air is out there, still running around putting snow on mountaintops and whatnot. It can nose underneath heat and humidity like a meteorological crow bar because it's heavier. Yesterday's discussion from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center called the Plains severe weather outbreak an April-like situation featuring cold that is more common of early spring, nosing under June's attempt at summertime.

Tomorrow we'll have a very weak area of low pressure cross New England from northwest to southeast in the afternoon. Low pressure is a general area of rising air, and it may be just enough to lift some of the heat and humidity... just enough to make some tropical downpours and a few thunderstorms in the afternoon - a typical Florida summer afternoon for NH.

Tuesday is the day us weather fans should be watching for potential severe weather on a larger scale, but at this point it's too far out to say anything more.
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Old 06-12-2008, 01:16 PM   #15
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Well, it looks like my heat wave guess verified, at least at Concord. A brutal 4 day stretch for early June.

Friday 6/6 High temp 58 (18 below average)
Sat 6/7 High temp 94 (18 above average), 2 degrees shy of the record of 96
Sun 6/8 High temp 94 (18 above average), New daily record (by 1 degree)
Mon 6/9 High temp 94 (18 above average), 4 degrees shy of the record of 98
Tues 6/10 High temp 98 (21 above average), New daily record (by 3 degrees!)
Weds 6/11 High temp 84 (7 above average) - refreshing!.
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Old 06-12-2008, 01:48 PM   #16
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Yup.Also records:101 in Nashua and 100 here in Manchester.That would be fine if I was on the lake but in the city?Yuk!
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Old 06-12-2008, 11:15 PM   #17
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Default A little cooler on the lake

From Black Cat Island...

7 June> 84 / 55

8 June> 88 / 63

9 June> 89 / 66

10 June> 89 / 66

Dewpoints were around 70 all four days.


As far as this being a sign of things to come this summer, yes and no. The weather pattern is stuck in April, thanks to La Nina (cooling of Pacific equator waters) and most recently the Pacific Decadal Circulation has shifted to negative (cool.)

With that said, my call is for continued cold fronts, many of which will be abnormally strong for summertime, coming off the northern Pacific and out of Canada on a regular basis. As mentioned earlier, for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction, so a strong southward punch of cold air over one half of the country is most likely going be be accompanied by a strong northward push of warm air on the other side of the country. Wherever the cold pushes the hot out of the way, we will see more severe weather. Given the accumulating snow we've had in some of the cities out west during the last couple days, I think we will probably keep hearing of snows in the Rockies throughout the summer. Maybe less frequent at the height of summer, but I think at least once in July and once in August is a good bet right now.

Simplified forecast for the Lakes Region this summer: A see-saw of seasons. We've already had it this past week: Temps in the 50s with drizzle, then a 4-day heat wave. Tonight as I write this we are having October... and there are even frost advisories in effect for Northern Grafton, northern Carroll, and Coos counties tonight... some of the usual cold spots in the Lakes Region may also have frost tonight.

After getting up to 71 degrees in the heat wave, the water temp is now back in the 50s and cooler on the surface than underneath (autumn behavior.)

Don't worry, the heat will be back. Only to be followed by more cool. And so on...
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Old 06-13-2008, 07:54 AM   #18
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From Black Cat Island...

After getting up to 71 degrees in the heat wave, the water temp is now back in the 50s and cooler on the surface than underneath (autumn behavior.)
CLA, I'm getting readings on Merrymeeting this morning in the high 60's. ( about 4' down, averaging about 20' depth in general area)

Winni website is posting similar readings.

Why would the readings vary so much from yours?
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Old 06-13-2008, 10:19 AM   #19
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Default Large bodies of water = warm/cold pools

At 72 square miles (is that right?) Lake Winnipesaukee is never going to have uniform temperatures throughout. This is always most evident in winter when some people have a couple of inches of ice while others are saying "when will it freeze?"

My readings are representative of the open lake. This is a very exposed spot, and we get hit with all kinds of weather from all directions. It definitely churns things up.

When my readings are consistently warm, everyone else on the lake can assume their water will be just as warm, if not warmer. When my readings are constantly changing, it represents cold/warm pools forming/breaking/drifting, and therefore the water temperatures probably vary from location to location. In winter, when my readings get down around 35 or so, the less-exposed areas of the lake usually have ice.

During the heat wave, we had very light winds that allowed a warm pool to build here. For the last two days we had steady winds from the northwest, which I'm guessing blew that warm pool down to the other end of the lake.

If the lake were very small, it would have uniform temps, but it ain't small.

Its temperatures are a mini-version of the ocean, which has warm and cold pools hundreds of miles across, and they drift around, circulate, etc. Two of those pools are affecting our weather now: A very large cold pool in the Pacific is helping to keep the North American weather pattern stuck in late winter/early spring. That late-winter pattern has been producing all the stormy weather that's been making our national headlines. On the other side, we have a small warm pool sitting right where the hurricanes want it, but that hasn't made news yet.

The same behavior exists in the lake water, but thankfully Ol' Winni's scale isn't big enough to have the same level of effects on us!

For those who wonder how I check the probes, it's by the swim test! The other day I couldn't believe it had risen to 70 so quickly, because I'd tried the water just a couple days earlier and went numb. Sure enough, my swim test of the 70-degree reading resulted in my reluctance to get out of the water for dinner.
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Old 06-13-2008, 11:00 AM   #20
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Well I must say, last night sure didn't feel like a heat wave. I got done playing softball in Derry at about 10:30, and it was downright chilly while we were having our post game "team meeting". It was in the 50's as I was driving home. T'was 45 at the house this morning.
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