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Old 10-27-2008, 11:29 PM   #1
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Default Lake temps/ ice in

I searched around and it sounds like the temp thing is gone for now. Being out in Colorado it's tough to get any info out there. Seems the weather has been on the colder side over the last few weeks and that it is going to continue that way. Makes me think that maybe we can get an early freeze on Winni. So could someone post the lake temp in their area and, if the information is available, what an average lake temp is for this time of year? Much appreciated. On a side note does anyone know what the earliest recorded "ice in" was? I get like an 8 year old who can't wait for snow this time of year.
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Old 10-27-2008, 11:54 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BoulderBronco View Post
I searched around and it sounds like the temp thing is gone for now. Being out in Colorado it's tough to get any info out there. Seems the weather has been on the colder side over the last few weeks and that it is going to continue that way. Makes me think that maybe we can get an early freeze on Winni. So could someone post the lake temp in their area and, if the information is available, what an average lake temp is for this time of year? Much appreciated. On a side note does anyone know what the earliest recorded "ice in" was? I get like an 8 year old who can't wait for snow this time of year.
It's right at your fingertips...

http://www.winnipesaukee.com/

Look at the bottom link under Site Navigation.

Water Temperatures...

http://www.winnipesaukee.com/tempcal/index.cgi
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Old 10-28-2008, 05:14 AM   #3
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Default Water Temps

In the left column of this site's homepage is a link to the calendar with the daily water temps at Lakeport. You can also go to Bizer.com and link to the lake level site which also lists Lakeport's water temps.
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Old 10-28-2008, 05:48 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BoulderBronco View Post
I searched around and it sounds like the temp thing is gone for now. Being out in Colorado it's tough to get any info out there. Seems the weather has been on the colder side over the last few weeks and that it is going to continue that way. Makes me think that maybe we can get an early freeze on Winni. So could someone post the lake temp in their area and, if the information is available, what an average lake temp is for this time of year? Much appreciated. On a side note does anyone know what the earliest recorded "ice in" was? I get like an 8 year old who can't wait for snow this time of year.
IMHO, it will be some time, and certainly not before the first of the new year before "ice in" occurs. The lake is very deep and it takes quite a while to get the water temp down to the uniform 39 degrees necessary for ice formation to commence on the surface. It also takes many successive cold nights of well below freezing temps and we generally don't get that kind of deep cold until early January. Sit back and relax...enjoy the Holidays!

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Old 10-28-2008, 06:53 AM   #5
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Don't forget Mikes weather site, live data, pix, and much more:

http://www.blackcatnh.com/weather/
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Old 10-28-2008, 10:33 AM   #6
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When you look at the water temps right now, go back to the same month in previous years. You get a pretty good indication of how this years water temps compare to years past.
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Old 10-28-2008, 11:08 AM   #7
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Default Ice In?

I just looked over the past 6 years of temp data and the temps in low 50's line up like most other years. There's nothing that really indicates the lake will freeze any earlier than it typically does.

But what is the definition of "ice in"? Folks can be ice fishing in Alton Bay when there's still open water not far beyond Sandy Point. And in late January it's not uncommon to be skiing and still see open water in the broads.
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Old 10-29-2008, 07:29 AM   #8
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Don't forget Mikes weather site, live data, pix, and much more:

http://www.blackcatnh.com/weather/
Thank you for the plug, WiFi!

The water temperature on my site is updated every 15 minutes from 2 depths.
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Old 10-29-2008, 08:04 AM   #9
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Default Yep, great site

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Don't forget Mikes weather site, live data, pix, and much more:

http://www.blackcatnh.com/weather/
That's one of the nicest and informative Lake-related web pages.
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Old 10-28-2008, 02:52 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Blue Thunder View Post
IMHO, it will be some time, and certainly not before the first of the new year before "ice in" occurs. The lake is very deep and it takes quite a while to get the water temp down to the uniform 39 degrees necessary for ice formation to commence on the surface. It also takes many successive cold nights of well below freezing temps and we generally don't get that kind of deep cold until early January. Sit back and relax...enjoy the Holidays!

Blue Thunder
Only needs to be 39 degrees to freeze? Is that someting like the reason I get frost on my car when it is 38 degrees?

A big factor with ice formation is the wind, there have been years when it was so windy that the ice never did completely form.
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Old 10-28-2008, 03:34 PM   #11
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Default Freezing is all about water density

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Only needs to be 39 degrees to freeze?
No, water freezes at 32 degrees. However, the lake can't freeze until all water underneath is at 39 degrees (4 degrees C). Water is most dense at 39 degrees, so water at that temperature sinks, and warmer lake water rises to the surface -- which also must be cooled to 39 degrees -- which sinks, is replaced by warmer water, and so on until everything is at 39 degrees. When that temperature is reached, there is no more warm water to rise to the surface. Therefore, the surface water can now begin to freeze and ice begins to form and stay on the lake.

This "water density at 39 degrees" also explains why shallow lakes freeze quicker than deep lakes like Winni. Deep lakes have much more water that needs to be cooled to 39 degrees. It also explains (in part) why Alton Bay can freeze before the rest of the lake, or even other parts of Alton Bay (as mentioned by another poster here) -- because it is more shallow and gets to 39 degrees a lot quicker.
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Old 10-28-2008, 10:59 PM   #12
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Thanks guys and gals. Looks like the lake temps are a solid 2-4 degrees colder than this time last year. Now I am no expert but seems to me that is a note worthy difference for water temps. Of course a warm spell can ruin all that but at 2-4 degrees the lake COULD freeze earlier than usual by a week or two. Good enough for me. I am tired of these winters with thin ice. I want to see 24" this year in Meredith bay.
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Old 10-29-2008, 05:30 AM   #13
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The water depth averages 30' around here and the earliest I've walked on the ice is December 17'th. That year was weird as it melted a few days later. For my first fourteen years here, the local ice was safe to walk on for New Years day. Three of the last four years, that has not been the case. Its too bad we don't have a way of measuring ice-in like we do ice-out in the spring. It would be interesting to see the history, along with knowing if there was any correlation between the two dates.
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Old 10-29-2008, 05:52 AM   #14
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Default Great Explanation!

Quote:
Originally Posted by This'nThat View Post
No, water freezes at 32 degrees. However, the lake can't freeze until all water underneath is at 39 degrees (4 degrees C). Water is most dense at 39 degrees, so water at that temperature sinks, and warmer lake water rises to the surface -- which also must be cooled to 39 degrees -- which sinks, is replaced by warmer water, and so on until everything is at 39 degrees. When that temperature is reached, there is no more warm water to rise to the surface. Therefore, the surface water can now begin to freeze and ice begins to form and stay on the lake.

This "water density at 39 degrees" also explains why shallow lakes freeze quicker than deep lakes like Winni. Deep lakes have much more water that needs to be cooled to 39 degrees. It also explains (in part) why Alton Bay can freeze before the rest of the lake, or even other parts of Alton Bay (as mentioned by another poster here) -- because it is more shallow and gets to 39 degrees a lot quicker.
Nice job TNT. I was gonna take a crack at explaining it after I posted it, but I knew someone else with a better way of explaining it would come along. I remember former Channel 4 meteorologist Bruce Schwoegler talking about the 39 degree principle on TV when I was a kid. He always made references to Winnipesaukee during "ice in/out" season.

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Old 10-31-2008, 03:10 PM   #15
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Thanks for all the information on the lake freezing and the whole 39 degrees thing. You learn something new everyday!

I am going to pass this along to my kids.

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Old 11-07-2008, 10:45 PM   #16
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Default Fish also benefit

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I am going to pass this along to my kids.nj2nh
NJ2NH, the 39 degree water temperature also explains why the whole lake doesn't freeze down to the bottom, and why the fish also don't freeze. The bottom layer of the lake ice is always in danger of being melted by the 39-degree temperature water underneath, which actually limits the thickness of the ice in our NH climate. Think about how much heat is in the massive body of water at a uniform 39 degrees! To put it in perpective, if you had a heat pump at your house, when the air temperature is 39 degrees outside, the heat pump can completely warm the entire house and keep it at a comfortable 68 degrees F inside -- that's a lot of heat at 39 degrees.

And of course, 39 degrees isn't freezing, so the fish are happy to be swimming in this relatively "warm" water -- given that they are a cold-blooded species and don't need to stay warm.
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Old 11-10-2008, 04:18 PM   #17
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Thanks for all the information on the lake freezing and the whole 39 degrees thing. You learn something new everyday!

I am going to pass this along to my kids.

nj2nh
I agree, thanks for the info.
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Old 11-17-2008, 02:24 PM   #18
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Looks like we are about one week behind last year - we are at 49 degrees, last year we made it there by 11/9. Of course some teen temps this week may catch us up in a hurry.

Last edited by Grady223; 11-17-2008 at 02:25 PM. Reason: spelling
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Old 11-19-2008, 07:16 PM   #19
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Looks like we are about one week behind last year - we are at 49 degrees, last year we made it there by 11/9. Of course some teen temps this week may catch us up in a hurry.
I think you're right. We're at 47 for lake temp now, only the second cold night in a row and more to come.
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Old 11-20-2008, 08:03 AM   #20
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Default Water Temps

And now it's down to 44 degrees at Lakeport.... C'mon winter!
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Old 11-20-2008, 08:09 AM   #21
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I have seen ice on some of the smaller ponds in Southern NH. There is even ice on parts of the Shawsheen River down here in Andover, MA. Certainly is early for ice, but a good sign nonetheless.
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Old 11-20-2008, 08:26 AM   #22
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The small pond that I pass on my way to work here in central MA was fully skimmed over for the first time this morning...
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Old 11-20-2008, 11:21 AM   #23
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Bring it on. I just looked at the forecast for the Meredith area and it looks like a good cold spell has a hold on you guys. Come on winter!
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Old 11-21-2008, 04:55 PM   #24
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Default Back to normal, cold to hang in

Looking at the data for the past 5 years, it looks like 45 degrees, plus or minus a degree, is the normal for November 20th in this era. Yesterday was November 20th and the lake was at 44 degrees.

With the cold weather here and looking to hold for some time, I would guess that will put the lake a few degrees below normal in a week or so, so it is approaching the magic temp of 39 degrees for transition rather quickly. I realize the water freezes at 32 degrees, but there are specific gravity reasons why 39 degrees is so magical, and important.

It looks like there are about eight weeks to get the sleds and bob houses ready for the big lake, maybe less in the coves if the cold holds.

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Old 11-21-2008, 05:25 PM   #25
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My brother was just up there (Meredith Bay) yesterday getting the sleds fired up and ready. I would love it if the lake froze by Christmas, but that might be too optomistic He said it was pretty burly out there. I don't think he was out on the water but he said it was nasty!
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Old 11-21-2008, 05:29 PM   #26
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Default Skim ice in Meredith

There is a bunch of skim ice on Winnipesaukee by the Lago resturaunt. It extends from the guest docks to the western shore and about 100 feet south of the north shore. Woo-hoo! Maybe its time to think about getting the docks in.
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Old 11-23-2008, 07:56 AM   #27
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I was at the lake yesterday. It was miserably cold and windy. Smaller ponds are all skimmed over, even some of the coves showing signs of ice.

What surprised me the most was to see the Merrymeeting Marsh and River around the Alton circle completely skimmed over. With the water temps and movement, I wouldn't have expected this.

Flip should occur any day now, if not already.

http://www.squamlakes.org/sla/ecology.htm
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Old 11-24-2008, 11:26 AM   #28
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Default Water Temp's dropping fast

41 degrees at Lakeport this morning per the recorded message. Getting close to that magic 38.2 degrees....
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Old 10-28-2008, 02:20 PM   #29
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Most years I watch the first of the major ice forming on the lake while enjoying the week off between Christmas and New Years.

As other notes have indicated, mostly New Years before ice really starts, and mid-January before it is solid....in a "normal" year.
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Old 11-24-2008, 02:35 PM   #30
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It's coming, Wickwass was skimmed over this AM.
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Old 11-24-2008, 10:52 PM   #31
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Arrow Pemigewasset too

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It's coming, Wickwass was skimmed over this AM.
Was that way this afternoon as well. Pemigewasset was too. I noted Winni near Clough Park was also skimmed over. Chief Chocorua was shivering ! Supposed to warm up this week though.
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Old 11-25-2008, 09:40 AM   #32
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Default Make up your minds, people!

I love this!

We spend late winter and early spring waiting and watching for the ice out.

We spend the late fall and early winter waiting and watching for the ice to come it.

Only at Lake Winnipesaukee. Wish I were there to live it for myself. Soon, but not soon enough.

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Old 11-25-2008, 09:36 AM   #33
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Default Cumminings Cove / Bear Island?

Has anybody been around the Cummings Cove or Cattle Landing area? I usually make my last trip to Bear Island this weekend after the feast on Thursday and then pull my boat out. I keep it in Cummings Cove area and in the past have not had issues with ice this time of year. Do I need to get up the lake and pull my boat before the holiday? Are people just overly optimistic for ice-in or is there serious skimming occurring? Thanks.
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Old 11-25-2008, 09:43 AM   #34
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It's all open water around Cattle Landing....no starter ice yet in any of the usual spots.....Indian Summer lives at the Cattle Landing....the boating season has at least another month left before the January 8 ice-in.
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Old 12-08-2008, 08:26 AM   #35
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Default Water Temp 38 degrees at Lakeport this A.M.

Won't be long now....
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Old 12-08-2008, 09:25 AM   #36
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Default Ice breaking up

A lot of the ice from M'boro bay to Lees Mills has been broken up and is flowing south. Sunday, the lake was almost frozen in from Ambrose cove across to the snowmobile power-line trail, but this morning, its all open again. Whitecaps everywhere, and smoke rising from the water. Its 6 degrees at 9:30AM - so if the wind would ever calm down, things would freeze up again quickly.
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Old 12-08-2008, 10:05 AM   #37
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There is quite a showing of arctic sea smoke this morning at Black Cat. The water temp has dropped 2 degrees overnight. The temp at 10 feet down was 40 yesterday and is now 39. The temp at 2 feet down is now 37. At 35 there is usually some ice on the surface. The 10-foot probe usually stays around 35 or 36 all winter.

This week we'll get some snow chilling the surface tomorrow and then Thursday will bring another cold blast.
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Old 12-09-2008, 07:22 AM   #38
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Default What a difference a nite makes

The wind died down enough last night - and it was 4 degrees - to freeze over virtually everything north of Moultonborough Bay. All white - shore to shore - except for a few wet spots here and there. It is snowing lightly, so its easy to see where its ice and not. We'll see how it stands up to Wednesday's "upper 40's" and showers.
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Old 12-09-2008, 10:04 AM   #39
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The large pond in Marlborough, MA that I pass on my way to work was completely frozen over and covered with snow this morning for the first time. Over the years, I've found this to be a good indicator for the lake as it preceeds what happens at the lake by about 2 weeks, both Spring and Fall.

It had been wide open before this. I expect it will open up again over the next few days. But the freeze does seem to be a bit earlier this year.

From the Alton Bay cam, I see that it is similarly covered today.
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Old 12-09-2008, 01:49 PM   #40
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This morning I found a few small bergs drifting past Black Cat. I assume they came from a frozen part of the lake, perhaps Salmon Meadow Cove.

The water temp dropped during this morning's snowfall, which tallied 1.5 inches. The 2-foot probe is now at 37 and the 10-foot probe is 38. We're getting close. More snow or sleet will help to chill the water surface, as will more cold, dry, windy weather like yesterday's.

The warmup is stalling. It was forecast to go to the 30s today, but it's almost 2 pm and we've only reached 20 so far. Tomorrow, if the warmup gets in here in earnest, I don't expect it to last long. Thursday we'll be right back into winter.
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Old 12-10-2008, 07:50 AM   #41
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Pretty warm today...those toasty winds are going to warm the surface up quite a bit I would imagine.
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Old 12-10-2008, 08:07 AM   #42
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Default Storm watch

Looks like they're already posting a Winter Storm Watch for Belknap County Thursday night into Friday afternoon with the possibility of 6+ inches. I'm sure this will get it's own thread. Everyone ready?
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Old 12-19-2008, 08:28 PM   #43
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Any ice forming up there yet? Looks like a bit of snow and cold temps are there to stay. Plus the water temp says 36*. I don't think I have ever seen it feeze before Christmas. This year maybe? Come on ice!
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Old 12-19-2008, 10:23 PM   #44
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Earlier this evening the probe at 2 feet deep went to 32. The probe at 10 feet was 35. This is the normal wintertime temp pattern when it is frozen. My guess is that the snow falling in the water, which was already at 36, lowered the temp a lot more. There's no doubt it's ready to freeze as soon as it sits still. The question is, when will it sit still?

Saturday: Windy and cold, high 19. (More chilling of the water.)

Sunday: Possible Nor'Easter, more snow. (More chilling of the water.)

Monday: Very windy and very cold, high 14. (Mega chilling of the water.)

Tuesday, maybe? Wednesday brings another storm.
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Old 12-23-2008, 09:46 AM   #45
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This morning the water temperature at Black Cat Island is again down to 32 at the depth of 2 feet, and 33 at 10 feet. It has been trying to freeze when still, but has not been very still for the last several days. Today the northwest wind howls once again; we are gusting to 28 mph and wave heights are about 2 feet. There are several bergs of ice formed from the snow, which never melted in the lake water.
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Old 12-27-2008, 11:51 AM   #46
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Anyone have any updates/info on the ice? Is meredith still iced over or has it gone away with this warmer weather? How about the rest of the lake?
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Old 12-27-2008, 01:51 PM   #47
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Default The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

About the current ice situation:

The Good is that the water is cold, in fact cold enough to freeze on a normal night without wind.

The Bad is that it will get warmer the next day or so, likely record warmth. It will also get windy. This will break up and melt most of the thin ice that is in the coves.

The Ugly is the wind. I do not see any stretch of time where it will be cold without wind between now and about Jan 6th. There is a short period around Jan 1 and 2 that might become more promising for the ice, but right now it does not look cold enough or calm enough.

Unfortunately, it might get uglier! It is my personal opinion that from mid January to late February, it is likely to be warmer than normal. It will still be cold, this is northern New England in the winter, but compared to normal, I see it on the warmer side.

For those technical folks out there, I see the trough near the east coast moving (retro-grading) westward and holding a blocking position near the Rocky's, giving them winter and us the warmer flow found on the east side of a trough, with a ridge over us or slightly to our east enhancing the northward flow of the warm air about a month from now. That is why I think it will be above normal here from Jan 20th to late February.

I really hope that I am wrong with this, but that is the way it looks to me at this time.

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