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Old 02-15-2011, 01:59 PM   #1
CanisLupusArctos
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Default Iceout 2011

This morning (2/15/11) the water temp at 2 feet down reached 33 degrees for the first time since ice-in. This, despite air temperature in the teens. This marks the start of the annual ice-out process. See the current water temps at 2 feet and 10 feet, at www.BlackCatNH.com.
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Old 02-15-2011, 02:58 PM   #2
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Keep that water temperature rising! Ice Out Cometh!
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Old 02-15-2011, 02:59 PM   #3
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CLA, what would cause the rise? Does 1 day of warm temps like we had one Monday cause enough runoff / melting to make the difference?
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Old 02-15-2011, 03:06 PM   #4
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Talking Funny You Should Post

I was just going to ask you about this on Facebook. Come on Ice-Out!
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Old 02-16-2011, 12:24 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Merrymeeting View Post
CLA, what would cause the rise? Does 1 day of warm temps like we had one Monday cause enough runoff / melting to make the difference?
The sun being stronger,and getting stronger may be it
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Old 02-18-2011, 12:19 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Merrymeeting View Post
CLA, what would cause the rise? Does 1 day of warm temps like we had one Monday cause enough runoff / melting to make the difference?
Corollaman is right. The shortest day of the year is the very first day of winter in December. The first day of winter marks the beginning of the sun rising higher in the sky and staying up longer.

We're now 2 months past our annual sunlight minimum and heading quickly toward the equinox (equal day and night.) The sun is pretty strong this time of year. The sun starts heating up rocks. Rocks in south-facing areas that are exposed to the sun all day long are now free of snow even while 18 inches of snow remains immediately around the rock.

The same thing is happening in the lake. Soon we'll start to see south-facing shores become ice-free, and areas around rocks and reefs also. This will happen even on below-freezing days because the sun is getting too high in the sky for ice to withstand.

It's harder to get snow to accumulate at this time of year, too. The clouds have to be thick enough, and the snowfall intense enough to overcome the more-direct sun. It will accumulate much more readily at night than in the daytime. If you have a sun-exposed driveway or porch, this is the time of year when an overnight snow of 1-2 inches doesn't even have to be shoveled if there isn't any more expected, because it'll melt quickly as soon as the sun comes out. If you get several inches of snow overnight you can shovel it away and the sun-exposed areas will be bare & dry by afternoon.

Back to the lake ice: It's past growth season now. On a few of the colder nights it will re-thicken some, but the sun is tilting the equation in favor of "weekly net loss" for the ice.
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Old 02-18-2011, 01:49 PM   #7
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yeah, I've noticed last week when it was still in the 20's and even tuesday when it was well below freezing, there was water in the road next to the snow banks, so even though it was well below freezing, the sun was strong enough to commence melting of snow.
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Old 02-19-2011, 11:07 AM   #8
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Tim Kelly mentioned the snow pack this AM and how even with 32F temps and below that the sun would continue to work away on it.

My neighbors house has a lot of peaks and valleys on it. South side is ice/snow free. North side has 12-15 inches all the way down to the eaves.

I am so ready for ice-out!
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Old 02-25-2011, 05:15 PM   #9
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Default Hey

the Blackcat 2 Ft. water temp just hit 34 degrees
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Old 03-07-2011, 01:01 PM   #10
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Do you think that the run off from all the rain, and melting snow, will raise the temps even quicker now?
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Old 03-08-2011, 01:56 PM   #11
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Arrow Temperature at Two Feet vs Ten Feet

The water temperature at Black Cat Island at two feet is now 39.2 and at 10 feet is 32.4
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Old 03-08-2011, 02:56 PM   #12
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Default huh?

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The water temperature at Black Cat Island at two feet is now 39.2 and at 10 feet is 32.4

That can't be right. I can get two different BC weather pages to load. One says what RG says and the other says 34.2.

Ice out typically happens in the 39-40 degree range.

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Old 03-08-2011, 07:17 PM   #13
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Default water is heaviest at 39 f

BT, you are right to be suspicious of temps being 39 at 2 ft and only 32 at 10 ft at the same time. That would be unstable, since water is at maximum density at about 39 F (4 C). If water were most dense at 32 F, nature would have to chill the whole lake to 32 to get the top layer to stay at 32 and permit freezing over. Circulators to keep docks ice-free wouldn't work either.
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Old 03-09-2011, 10:44 AM   #14
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I exchanged a private message with CLA concerning the different readings between the two pages.

He told me that the issue is one of calibration of the 2' temp probe. It is currently reading too high. But it would be expensive to recalibrate so he has done a low-tech calibration against another probe.

The temp posted on the second page (the 39 degree reading) is what the incorrectly calibrated probe is actually reporting. He then manually adjusts the reading based on the comparison with the other probe, and posts that on the BC Weather page.
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Old 03-11-2011, 07:00 AM   #15
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Still many weeks to go, but we should see an acceleration of snow and ice melt this week. Temps for the next 10 days will be well above freezing every day, and close to or above freezing at night.
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Old 03-11-2011, 02:52 PM   #16
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Default ice cuttings

The lake is in a dangerous position right now. We have observed this situation where you have a layer of ice, then above that water and then the snow comes down and leaves apuddle under it and freezes. this makes it into a saw and we have witnessed that it can cut 6" cement cylinders in half.
Great for those of us with boat houses. I think ours gets it worse then others cause it is facing west with exposure to the north
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Old 03-13-2011, 06:58 AM   #17
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It has definitely begun. We were in Wolfeboro yesterday. Still many weeks to go, but all the signs are there. I'll post some of the pictures I took later.
  • Back Bay is open and open water is flowing out into the lake well beyond Mount dock
  • Edges along shoreline showing signs of decay
  • Lakeport temp readings up to 35 today
  • WeatherCam temp at 10 feet now rising daily, along with 2 feet
  • Many areas have lost their snow cover, both on the lake and ground

And as of today, an extra hour of sunlight to melt things!
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Old 03-13-2011, 07:36 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Merrymeeting View Post
And as of today, an extra hour of sunlight to melt things!
LOL... Someone had to say it. You beat me.
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Old 03-13-2011, 08:13 AM   #19
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The ice is definitely retreating. The docks are really opening up and with 50 degree weather coming the end of the week progress will be made. my goal is to havetheboat in by April 16th.
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Old 03-13-2011, 01:54 PM   #20
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Merrymeeting, I hope you're kidding. Unless someone can slow the spinning of the earth, the amount of sunlight is only slightly more today than yesterday. The length of daylight doesn't get extended by moving the clocks forward in spring.
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Old 03-13-2011, 08:33 PM   #21
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Merrymeeting, I hope you're kidding. Unless someone can slow the spinning of the earth, the amount of sunlight is only slightly more today than yesterday. The length of daylight doesn't get extended by moving the clocks forward in spring.
That is more or less an annual joke. I believe that is why the wink icon followed the remark.

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Old 03-13-2011, 08:40 PM   #22
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That is more or less an annual joke. I believe that is why the wink icon followed the remark.

R2B
It's actually why the 4 wink icons followed. So there would be no doubt.
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Old 03-13-2011, 08:46 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Merrymeeting View Post
It's actually why the 4 wink icons followed. So there would be no doubt.
I did not go back to your post; I know I saw at least one. Overall, good for a chuckle twice, once when I first read it and again this evening. It is good to have some fun in life.

Keep that ice melting! It does not have much value anymore this year and I want to get the boat in before gas goes an higher.

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Old 03-14-2011, 12:59 PM   #24
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Default clock back

Surprised noone ever thought of this...
Couldn't we turned the clocks back a bit every day, starting, say, late November??? And then with all the extra sun, keep the lake from ever freezing at all.
In fact, why not crank 'em backwards starting in mid-August, and keep it warm year round???
Maybe we are on to something here....
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Old 03-14-2011, 01:29 PM   #25
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My apologies. I'm still working out the finer points of "forum speak". I'll keep a look out for "wikies" and other nuances in the future. I had the feeling when I clicked that it was a set up.
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Old 03-14-2011, 11:55 PM   #26
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Geneva, you are not alone, it took me a second, okay a third read as well...

Very funny indeed (now that I am in on the joke)
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Old 03-17-2011, 07:07 PM   #27
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So i was up in Wolfeboro for work today and as warm as it was I was so impressed with how far the lake has to go until ICEOUT. I know it will escalate fast over the next few weeks but as of today that lake looked rock solid with ICE. Wasn't ICEOUT last year like next week?
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Old 03-17-2011, 07:41 PM   #28
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Default At least three weeks

A year ago today, we lowered the dock into the water. This year, half a dozen snowmobiles went by. The local "three weeks to go" indicator hasn't shown yet, but is looking close.
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Old 03-18-2011, 06:06 AM   #29
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So i was up in Wolfeboro for work today and as warm as it was I was so impressed with how far the lake has to go until ICEOUT. I know it will escalate fast over the next few weeks but as of today that lake looked rock solid with ICE. Wasn't ICEOUT last year like next week?
Yes it was:

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Old 03-22-2011, 04:20 PM   #30
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It's creeping north, but still weeks away in the Lakes Region.

For those who may be familiar with it, there is a large reservoir in Waltham MA, near the intersection of Rts 95/128 & 2. Yesterday it was still fully ice covered. Today there were large open areas and most of the ice had been blown into coves by the wind. I expect it will all be gone tomorrow.
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Old 03-22-2011, 06:34 PM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Merrymeeting View Post
It's creeping north, but still weeks away in the Lakes Region.

For those who may be familiar with it, there is a large reservoir in Waltham MA, near the intersection of Rts 95/128 & 2. Yesterday it was still fully ice covered. Today there were large open areas and most of the ice had been blown into coves by the wind. I expect it will all be gone tomorrow.
Yup, right in my backyard... Literally. The "Res" is quickly turning back to water. I've never timed out winni ice-out correlated to the reservoir ice-out occurring. I would assume it wouldn't have much correlation as the climate can actually be fairly dramatically different.
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Old 03-22-2011, 07:40 PM   #32
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Yup, right in my backyard... Literally. The "Res" is quickly turning back to water. I've never timed out winni ice-out correlated to the reservoir ice-out occurring. I would assume it wouldn't have much correlation as the climate can actually be fairly dramatically different.
I go past the "Res" several times a month this tme of the year. Based on what I have seen the past six years, since I retired, the "Res" had ice-out 29 to 36 days before Lake Winnipesaukee. Not enough data points for any real data anaylsis, as a rule of thumb it seems to work. That yeilds April 21 to April 28, if the past six year's difference holds this year. Sounds about right.

I would be very happy with an Ice-Out before the IRS tax is due.

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Old 03-22-2011, 07:52 PM   #33
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I go past the "Res" several times a month this tme of the year. Based on what I have seen the past six years, since I retired, the "Res" had ice-out 29 to 36 days before Lake Winnipesaukee. Not enough data points for any real data anaylsis, as a rule of thumb it seems to work. That yeilds April 21 to April 28, if the past six year's difference holds this year. Sounds about right.

I would be very happy with an Ice-Out before the IRS tax is due.

R2B
Sounds good to me as my "ice-out" guess is the 27th!
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Old 03-25-2011, 10:52 AM   #34
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Last weekend there was open water within 10 feet of shore at Black Cat Weather station. That water has since re-frozen, with long-term ice rather than the "overnight skim" that is common to this time of year. The re-frozen areas have gained about 0.5 inch thickness of clear ice per night, and are now 1.5 to 2 inches thick, clear ice. It's been many years since the last time this level of re-freezing happened this late in the season. The sun should be melting it, but that's not happening.

The ice didn't have much time (at the beginning of the season) to gain much clear ice (the strong stuff) before the snow hit. Snow slows down the ice growth because it's an insulator. There IS clear ice out there, with the more flaky (weaker) snow ice glued on top of it. However, the snow ice acts as an insulator against melting, from mid-February onward.

Many have last year's record-early iceout on their minds. Two major factors contributed to that.

The first was lack of snow, last winter. We got clear, solid ice last winter. But that stuff doesn't stand a chance against the sun, after about the 20th of February. It needs snow to insulate it, if it's going to last. We didn't get much snow last winter; it all went south of New England.

The second factor in last year's early iceout was wind. February and March 2010 averaged 7 and 5 mph, respectively. If an entire day averages 7 mph, we get branches down. A day averaging 5 mph will take down twigs and make it impossible to rake leaves. During February and March of last year, we had a number of high wind gusts, peaking at 60 mph at the end of February -- a critical time of the season for the ice.

This year's "iceout season" wind has been much lighter. February (last month) averaged 2 mph, and this month is averaging 3 mph. Peak gust for the period is 46 mph.

Wind weakens the ice. It tries to lift the ice up (the same force that lifts the water into waves) and when the wind lulls the ice falls back down again. You can see it in the WeatherCam's time lapse on a windy day. The repeated lifting/dropping of the ice -- a very subtle wavelike action -- weakens it by flexing. When some areas become open, the wind will stir up warmer water from below and act as a circulator.

This year we have plenty of white insulation on the ice, and it hasn't been very windy during the very "iceout-critical" Feb-March time period.

And for the past few days it's actually been cold enough to re-freeze.

Even still, the ice didn't get that thick before the snow came to slow down its growth, and April brings a much higher sun and great lengthening-of-daylight, so I'd be amazed if the ice lasted "late" this year. I'm going for an average iceout this year, which would be April 16 to 24.
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Old 03-25-2011, 11:43 AM   #35
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Default bring it on.......

Average ice out date? Sounds good to me, I'm ready for the warm up!
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Old 03-25-2011, 12:32 PM   #36
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Average ice out date? Sounds good to me, I'm ready for the warm up!
According to the data on this web site's "iceout" page, most of the iceout dates of the last 100+ years fall between April 16 and 24 -- or even 26 -- "the second half of April."
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Old 03-25-2011, 03:37 PM   #37
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CLA, you always give such a clear explanation of how the weather impacts the lake, and how the lake impacts the weather from place to place around the lake. Today, your post answered what I was wondering about the state of the ice. Although I was hoping for an early ice-out - we've got a camp to open in time for a large group Memorial Day Weekend - your description of the current status is still helpful.
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Old 03-26-2011, 06:11 AM   #38
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Although it has been cold at night we are still making progress. In a 24 hour period we saw a marker that was surrounded by ice become clear with ice at least 3 feet away. Although it is slow melting, it is still melting. Hard to believe that we had ice out last year sooo early. I am ready and waiting.
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Old 03-27-2011, 11:14 AM   #39
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Cool An Aerial View

Here's a video tour of the entire lake, taken from around 4,000 feet. The dark areas are cloud shadows, not thin ice. You won't see much water. In fact, the most notable new water we observed was on the Witches, but that happens every year. I have to go with Dave Emersons recent analysis (see the Laconia Citizen article here)- IceOut will happen the latter part of April. - which is really too bad, 'cause I chose April 16th.

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Old 03-27-2011, 01:32 PM   #40
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Thanks, flyguy. I enjoyed the video. The direction in which you flew made it easy to figure out where you were.
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Old 03-27-2011, 03:01 PM   #41
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Today's high wind definitely seems to be helping things along. Let's hope for windy nights and warm sun filled days.
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Old 03-27-2011, 10:25 PM   #42
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There's still snow covering the ice though, we might not see Ice Out till May this year. Maybe even Bike Week for crying out loud, at the rate we're going now, it feels more like January 27th, not March 27th.
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Old 03-28-2011, 02:23 PM   #43
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Default Ice out sponser

Thanks for the wonderful video of current ice conditions. In your comments, you mentioned becoming an ice out sponser. We are aware that your trips are VERY expensive, and wondered what it takes to assist.
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Old 03-29-2011, 08:28 AM   #44
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Wow -- I knew this year would be nothing like last, but looking at Bill's video, it's obvious that ice-out is a solid month or more behind 2010. In fact, it looks more solid in late March than it did mid-February last year.

Great video!
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Old 03-30-2011, 06:23 AM   #45
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Welcome to the 2011 Endless Winter! How about this winter? What-a-wintah!

There's still some snow on the roof tops waiting to get melted, and my neighbor's water circulator is still turning on according to the cold temps. The open water created by their circulator is so big that it's become a skimming venue for snowmobiles. The duckies all show up looking for something to eat only to get a big surprise when a line of snowmos roars through their little piece of open water.....poor duckies...and there's no speed limits for snowmos out on the frozen lake.

Last year in winter-2010, ice out took place on March 28 but this year the snowmobiles are still out there and the ice looks strong enough to support a big pickup truck except looks can be deceiving.
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Old 03-30-2011, 07:36 PM   #46
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Quote:
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Wow -- I knew this year would be nothing like last, but looking at Bill's video, it's obvious that ice-out is a solid month or more behind 2010!
Sadly, my April 29th guess is looking better and better!
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Old 03-30-2011, 08:58 PM   #47
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After this snowstorm we are going to be in for a big warm up, I still think its going to be an average ice out April 25
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Old 04-06-2011, 02:21 PM   #48
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Default water temp?

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What is the water temp these days? Can't find it on BlackCat anymore
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Old 04-06-2011, 02:51 PM   #49
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Talking Black Cat Temperatures

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CLA

What is the water temp these days? Can't find it on BlackCat anymore


It's there, you just have to scroll down.
There are two, one at 2 feet and one at 10 feet.

Lake Winnipesaukee Weather Cam
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Old 04-06-2011, 06:30 PM   #50
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Despite today's snow squalls, the 2' temp has risen for the first time in a bit, and the water line on the WeirsCam continues to move out. Slow, but it's still happening.
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Old 04-10-2011, 10:00 AM   #51
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Quote:
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CLA

What is the water temp these days? Can't find it on BlackCat anymore
Yup, been re-designing the site. The WeatherCam page got its overhaul last summer. The WeatherCenter site -- probably where you're missing the water temps -- is now getting its overhaul.
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