Summer 2011 Winding Down

[CanisLupusArctos]

Many signs now exist that show summer 2011 has begun the cooldown process. Fall is in the very beginning stages of setting up shop.

Last night in Alaska brought a frost advisory for "the first frost of the season" with anticipated temps down to 30 F. The cold air is getting ready to come back.

One big sign of this (in the lower 48) is the severe weather season is starting to work its way south again. Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes most often occur along cold fronts. In springtime, the cold fronts are still sweeping down from Canada (a la winter) and the spring season starts getting in the way. The season ends when the cold fronts stop coming for the summer. It stabilizes as summer.

The reverse happens when the cold fronts start coming again. Over the rest of this month you will see severe weather threats increasingly further south in the continental U.S. as the cold air starts to force summer's heat to be spent.

This comes as bittersweet relief to anyone who's been in the major heat wave in the middle part of the country. The heat area is already showing signs of shrinking. But the cooldown process is likely going to involve thunderstorms and tornadoes. For the ocean, the cooldown process leads to hurricanes, as the progression of autumn forces a certain amount of heat to be released from the waters. It releases as storm energy.

For right here at the lake, we're transitioning away from what has been a very dry past few weeks. It's been a very low-humidity summer this year. That has affected the water temperature, which hit a max of 76 F at Black Cat Island this summer. It hit 87 F last summer, amid constant humidity, even when the air wasn't hot.

This summer many of our most humid days were not that hot. We had one heat wave, and it was barely a heat wave (only 3 days.) Not every day of that heat wave was humid. Most of the time we were getting air flow from off the continent -- from the west or from out of Canada. That's very dry air. It made for some incredibly beautiful summer days.

The Canadian air masses remained not far to our north all summer, and now they are starting to nudge their way south again. It's leading us into a showery next few days, and the rain has just begun here tonight.

[trfour]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

Many signs now exist that show summer 2011 has begun the cooldown process. Fall is in the very beginning stages of setting up shop.

Last night in Alaska brought a frost advisory for "the first frost of the season" with anticipated temps down to 30 F. The cold air is getting ready to come back.

One big sign of this (in the lower 48) is the severe weather season is starting to work its way south again. Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes most often occur along cold fronts. In springtime, the cold fronts are still sweeping down from Canada (a la winter) and the spring season starts getting in the way. The season ends when the cold fronts stop coming for the summer. It stabilizes as summer.

The reverse happens when the cold fronts start coming again. Over the rest of this month you will see severe weather threats increasingly further south in the continental U.S. as the cold air starts to force summer's heat to be spent.

This comes as bittersweet relief to anyone who's been in the major heat wave in the middle part of the country. The heat area is already showing signs of shrinking. But the cooldown process is likely going to involve thunderstorms and tornadoes. For the ocean, the cooldown process leads to hurricanes, as the progression of autumn forces a certain amount of heat to be released from the waters. It releases as storm energy.

For right here at the lake, we're transitioning away from what has been a very dry past few weeks. It's been a very low-humidity summer this year. That has affected the water temperature, which hit a max of 76 F at Black Cat Island this summer. It hit 87 F last summer, amid constant humidity, even when the air wasn't hot.

This summer many of our most humid days were not that hot. We had one heat wave, and it was barely a heat wave (only 3 days.) Not every day of that heat wave was humid. Most of the time we were getting air flow from off the continent -- from the west or from out of Canada. That's very dry air. It made for some incredibly beautiful summer days.

The Canadian air masses remained not far to our north all summer, and now they are starting to nudge their way south again. It's leading us into a showery next few days, and the rain has just begun here tonight.

They were frying eggs and beacon on Texas Motor Speedways as fault and cooking cookies on the dashboard of a car parked there on a local TV news channel here in Texas the other day. I'm working on adapting my snowmobile suit to accommodate ice packs so's I can go outside!!
Hey, ship some of that cool stuff this way, would yah?

Terry
________________________________

[tis]

Oh no!!! Did you have to remind us? Makes me sad to see summer go by.

[CanisLupusArctos]

The best weather in New England is ahead. In summer, half of all people complain about the heat & humidity. In winter, the other half complain about the cold & snow. But from late August through the middle of October, NO ONE complains about 63- to 73-degree days, 38- to 48-degree nights, lots dryness and high definition skies with no haze, no air pollution... apple-picking season, corn mazes, wagon rides...

Those with sensitive lungs look forward to this time of year, when the air flow stops coming up from the southwest of here (where there are a lot of smoke stacks and tailpipes.) Autumn/winter brings air flow predominantly from the northwest instead (where there's not a whole lot of human activity at all.) The respiratory-sensitive people are the lucky ones: They're the first ones to notice air pollution, even though everyone's breathing it. Everyone's subject to the long-term effects. But the sensitive lung people have discomfort that tells them when to seek refuge from it. So, if you want to look at the end of summer this way -- "it's healthier for your lungs!"

Feel better? :-D

[sa meredith]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

The best weather in New England is ahead. In summer, half of all people complain about the heat & humidity. In winter, the other half complain about the cold & snow. But from late August through the middle of October, NO ONE complains about 63- to 73-degree days, 38- to 48-degree nights, lots dryness and high definition skies with no haze, no air pollution... apple-picking season, corn mazes, wagon rides...

Those with sensitive lungs look forward to this time of year, when the air flow stops coming up from the southwest of here (where there are a lot of smoke stacks and tailpipes.) Autumn/winter brings air flow predominantly from the northwest instead (where there's not a whole lot of human activity at all.) The respiratory-sensitive people are the lucky ones: They're the first ones to notice air pollution, even though everyone's breathing it. Everyone's subject to the long-term effects. But the sensitive lung people have discomfort that tells them when to seek refuge from it. So, if you want to look at the end ofsummer this way -- "it's healthier for your lungs!"

Feel better? :-D

Give me the 90 degree days of early Sept. 2010. Great mid week boating, with no traffic. As for this year...really hoping for some more sand bar days, spening hours in the water with the nieces and nephews...70 degree weather is not going to get that done.
This business of Fall starting to kick in, in early August...not one redeeming quality about it.

[tis]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

The best weather in New England is ahead. In summer, half of all people complain about the heat & humidity. In winter, the other half complain about the cold & snow. But from late August through the middle of October, NO ONE complains about 63- to 73-degree days, 38- to 48-degree nights, lots dryness and high definition skies with no haze, no air pollution... apple-picking season, corn mazes, wagon rides...

Those with sensitive lungs look forward to this time of year, when the air flow stops coming up from the southwest of here (where there are a lot of smoke stacks and tailpipes.) Autumn/winter brings air flow predominantly from the northwest instead (where there's not a whole lot of human activity at all.) The respiratory-sensitive people are the lucky ones: They're the first ones to notice air pollution, even though everyone's breathing it. Everyone's subject to the long-term effects. But the sensitive lung people have discomfort that tells them when to seek refuge from it. So, if you want to look at the end of summer this way -- "it's healthier for your lungs!"

Feel better? :-D

No, I'm with sa, I don't feel better. I LOVE the heat. 70 is too cold for me.
If it is 100 I would rather complain and at the same time love it!! But 80 is just about perfect for the lake.

[MAXUM]

Is it to soon to ask what the snowfall outlook is for this winter?

[Janet]

All of you who love heat, come on down to Dallas. Today's forecast is for a high temperature of 104. This will be our 39th straight day of 100 degrees or above. Yesterday the high was 106 with heat index of 109. Can't remember the last time we saw rain.

[sa meredith]

I don't think the thread is really about loving heat, but rather, with the exception of last year, the issue is that our NH summers are starting to wrap up during the first week of August.
I love the cool, crisp, air of the Fall...and High School football on a Friday night, followed by a perfect 55/60 degree Sat/Sun.
It just seems to me, that, with few exceptions, the month of June has turned into our rainy season, July is often perfect boating/swimming/staying outside till late in the evening season...and come August, it's hit or miss...mostly miss, if you want those hot boating "gotta get in the water" days.
When did our New England summers get reduced to 4, maybe 5, weeks?
I can certainly appreciated the change of season, and the Fall...but save it for September.

[tis]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

Is it to soon to ask what the snowfall outlook is for this winter?

Doyboy posted a snowfall outlook in another thread, Maxum. Interesting.

I also want to know about temperature outlook for the winter.

[Senter Cove Guy]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

Is it to soon to ask what the snowfall outlook is for this winter?

YES IT IS!
Bring the hot stuff back for another month.

[Merrymeeting]

It's not a weather statistic that seems to be kept by many, but along with the below-average humidity, did anyone else think it was an unusually windy summer? (I assume they would be related)

The weather of the past week is more like what I expect more often. Dead calm mornings, light breezy afternoons, and dead calm again at night.

But this summer we had many more days where the wind was howling and the waves had white caps.

We probably notice this more than many as our property is on an eastern shore. But even with that, it seemed much windier than normal this summer.

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by Senter Cove Guy

YES IT IS!
Bring the hot stuff back for another month.

Never to early to talk about snowmobiling - just like in the dead of winter after an awesome day's ride we end up talking about, well boating!

At least we live in a place where there is 4 seasons, have already experienced the endless summer and I liked that about as much as I think I'd like an endless winter. No thanks.... I like a little taste of everything.

Till then we still got plenty of summer left to enjoy. I do agree with some who have noticed that fall seems to arrive early in August, but then again we usually get some unusually hot weather in September so it all equals out in my book.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Those who noticed a lack of humidity, along with a rise in whitecaps this July, were right.

All of our weather comes FROM somewhere. In a normal summer, we get weather mostly from the southwest. That brings heat (or warmth) and humidity up from the Gulf of Mexico, serving the whole eastern half of the nation along the way. On those warm days it's not uncommon for a lake breeze to kick in, on the open lake, after a calm morning. This breeze is usually from the southeast. It may become a strong "sundown wind" late in the day, and will die off to calm after sunset.

This summer, we had a lot of air flow FROM Canada. That's from the northwest. Our normal air flow here is from that direction in all but the summer months -- usually July and August. Our average wind direction is from the Southeast in July and August. Usually, the "lake breeze" and "sundown wind" account for that. It can also be an extension of any seabreeze that is strong enough to reach Alton. If any ocean influence is strong enough to get there, it has a free shot at Center Harbor via the water.

In May and June of this year our average wind direction was from the southeast, which is unusual. It wasn't fair-weather breezes, though. Rainy weather often produces wind from that direction. May and June were rainy here.

July produced an average wind direction from the northwest -- out of Canada. That is very unusual. Air coming from that direction is dry, having traveled a great distance over land without crossing any oceans. We don't get humidity from Canada; we get it from the Gulf of Mexico.

Our humidity this July averaged 69 percent, as compared with last July at 71 percent. July 2008 and 2009 both averaged 80 percent.

Humidity drives the lake water temperature up, and it will try to achieve whatever the air temperature is. The lake loses a lot of heat to surface evaporation into the air, especially when windy. The drier (and faster) the air is, the more evaporation it can take from the surface of the lake. If the air is humid and calm, the lake cannot cool by "sweating" into the air. This year we only reached a water temperature of 76 F.

Those of you who've noticed the shortening summers are also right. The "rainy season" is the kind of weather we get when the summer air is trying to move in, and the cold air of winter is still holding on. That season was traditionally in April ("April showers bring May flowers") but the past few years the rainy season has been ruining Bike Week a lot.

The rainy season always ends with the summertime air winning. At the end of the season we start seeing more frequent showers and thunderstorms as the cold air starts coming back. There are still warm days but they become fewer and farther between. We get the back & forth temperature scheme until the wintertime air wins.

As for winter forecasts, even November is too early to make a winter prediction in New England. One could predict the overall (national/international) weather pattern for winter, right now, in August. But New England's weather can very greatly from the overall pattern. The rest of the country can be partaking in a hemisphere-wide weather pattern while New England experiences a local exception whose reasons cannot be determined until it's already happening.

[CrawfordCentury]

Less than six weeks until first frost. Goldenrod's in bloom.