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Old 02-24-2022, 12:48 PM   #1
4 for Boating
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Default Gas Prices this Spring/Summer

Looking like it may be an expensive boating season regarding gas prices.

It's always more expensive on the lake than your run of the mill auto gas station. - Any guesses on what the price per gallon on the lake we will see this summer?

My guess >> $6.50 peak

Crazy - we go from energy independence not more than a few years ago (actually an exporter to others) to now relying on Russia of all players for oil (they rank 3rd in terms of where we get our supply from now)

Could be a bumpy ride both on and off the water...
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Old 02-24-2022, 01:25 PM   #2
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Default Another rub of a crystal ball.

Russia sells us approximately 580,000 barrels of a oil a day. That represents approximately 7% of our consumption. Putin certainly has to be smiling with $100 barrel because that means he’s getting twice as much per barrel today then just 18 months ago.

Other elements come in to play as well. With tremendous spending and printing of additional dollars sooner or later ithere has to be a decline in value of the good old green back. Some argue that would come as a result of the introduction of cryptocurrency, however bitcoin was once considered the leader now is showing signs of decline.

My guess is you will pay $7.59 July 4 weekend.

Last edited by baygo; 02-24-2022 at 02:02 PM.
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Old 02-24-2022, 01:31 PM   #3
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Default Full

I hope not that high but good guess...
Looking on the bright side on things - most of us put the boat away with a completely full tank!!!!
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Old 02-24-2022, 01:37 PM   #4
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If you can even buy fuel on the fourth of July it could be a bonus. My guess is that Russian hackers will soon attack our grid just like they did in Europe just over a month ago and everything could be totally shutdown. This may be a good time to stockpile some fuel and water just in case...
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Old 02-24-2022, 01:43 PM   #5
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The price of heating oil is also out of control. $4.55 a gallon for K-1
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Old 02-24-2022, 01:48 PM   #6
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Default Off by a decimal point

Quote:
Originally Posted by baygo View Post
Russia sells us approximately 580,000 barrels of a oil a day. That represents approximately 70% of our consumption.
Off by a decimal point
How much oil does the US import?
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has published data for the amount of oil that the US imports. In the month of November 2021, which is the last data set available, the US imported 254,162,000 barrels of oil. It consumes a stunning 17.2 million barrels per day, much more than the just over 3 million of Russia.

The vast majority is from Canada, 136,090,000, making up over 50 percent of all imports. From Russia, 17,855,000 barrels were imported, with November's imports being the lowest value of the year, but still 7 percent of all imports. With sanctions looming, there is a large likelihood that these barrels will stop arriving in the US.

BTW, Russian oil is only 1% of our consumption, nowhere near 70%!.
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Old 02-24-2022, 01:50 PM   #7
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Default Other costs will affect your boating...

As inflation increases the cost of everything, the money set-aside for boating will dwindle for some people who weigh paying $30/lb. for steak for the BBQ, vs. a day on the lake.

Maybe a full day on the lake and oatmeal and a banana for dinner? How much more to fill the BBQ propane tank? How much more to drive-to-the-Lake from home?
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Old 02-24-2022, 01:51 PM   #8
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Now that Russia has invaded Ukraine.... We can expect to see $4+ at the pump and over $5 on the water. Could be higher, but I think Biden will be forced to release some of the reserves.


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Old 02-24-2022, 02:00 PM   #9
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Just to be clear, the OP would lead you to believe the US was oil Independant “a few years ago.” This is incorrect. We were “energy Independant” due to our exportation of natural gas with surpassed our importation of oil.


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Old 02-24-2022, 02:04 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thebix View Post
Off by a decimal point
How much oil does the US import?
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has published data for the amount of oil that the US imports. In the month of November 2021, which is the last data set available, the US imported 254,162,000 barrels of oil. It consumes a stunning 17.2 million barrels per day, much more than the just over 3 million of Russia.

The vast majority is from Canada, 136,090,000, making up over 50 percent of all imports. From Russia, 17,855,000 barrels were imported, with November's imports being the lowest value of the year, but still 7 percent of all imports. With sanctions looming, there is a large likelihood that these barrels will stop arriving in the US.

BTW, Russian oil is only 1% of our consumption, nowhere near 70%!.
Yes I just caught that typo. 7% is the number. Wish I caught it before you did LOL
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Old 02-24-2022, 02:13 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by NH.Solar View Post
If you can even buy fuel on the fourth of July it could be a bonus. My guess is that Russian hackers will soon attack our grid just like they did in Europe just over a month ago and everything could be totally shutdown. This may be a good time to stockpile some fuel and water just in case...
Yeah that’s a kind of scary thought for enhancement to the problem. Remember when the colonial pipeline went down last spring?
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Old 02-24-2022, 03:10 PM   #12
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Guess if you are one of the 81 million who elected our current President you must be happy. Let's see...energy prices (gas, heating oil, propane, etc.) out of control, Keystone pipeline cancelled, inflation hitting everyone's pocketbook, Afghanistan pullout a disaster, Ukraine policy non existent, China looking at Taiwan, North Korea shooting more missiles, Iran wanting a softer nuke deal, deficits burgeoning, etc .etc. Yep, all things good and this is just for starters in one year...three more years left ! UGH !!!!
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Old 02-24-2022, 04:01 PM   #13
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Well said!
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Old 02-24-2022, 04:02 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tummyman View Post
Guess if you are one of the 81 million who elected our current President you must be happy. Let's see...energy prices (gas, heating oil, propane, etc.) out of control, Keystone pipeline cancelled, inflation hitting everyone's pocketbook, Afghanistan pullout a disaster, Ukraine policy non existent, China looking at Taiwan, North Korea shooting more missiles, Iran wanting a softer nuke deal, deficits burgeoning, etc .etc. Yep, all things good and this is just for starters in one year...three more years left ! UGH !!!!
You forgot the southern border which is costing us a fortune.
I wouldn't be worried so much about inflation if my retirement investments were inflating in parallel, but that isn't happening. Quite the opposite.
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Old 02-24-2022, 04:31 PM   #15
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As the old saying goes, elections have consequences...

Reminds me of this old song from Jimmy Buffett: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0nG5CBURUw
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Old 02-24-2022, 05:27 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seaplane Pilot View Post
As the old saying goes, elections have consequences...

Reminds me of this old song from Jimmy Buffett: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0nG5CBURUw
Another Verse:

Their over spending is a habit
Time to pour some dancing rabbit
Grab a highball glass and fill in with some Ice
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Old 02-24-2022, 05:29 PM   #17
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Y'all are as bad as those who blamed Trump for unemployment during the pandemic.

Listen, Biden's no panacea, but blaming him exclusively for inflation, fuel prices, the Russia/Ukraine situation, etc. are ridiculous.

And the North Korea missile testing comment? Are you serious?! Here's a list of all the ones fired—I stopped counting at 20 during Trump's presidency.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._missile_tests

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Old 02-24-2022, 06:19 PM   #18
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Y'all are as bad as those who blamed Trump for unemployment during the pandemic.

Listen, Biden's no panacea, but blaming him exclusively for inflation, fuel prices, the Russia/Ukraine situation, etc. are ridiculous.

And the North Korea missile testing comment? Are you serious?! Here's a list of all the ones fired—I stopped counting at 20 during Trump's presidency.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._missile_tests

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I am with you in regards to inflation it was coming no matter who sat in the Oval Office. The severity however would be influenced by policy.

Biden has to own fuel prices because he stopped the pipeline as well as stopped a great deal of domestic oil production.

He also has to own Russia moving into Ukraine. It’s happening on his watch. It happened when he was in the VP role and it wasn’t even thought of while Trump was in office. We also have to be cognizant of one potential reality. Did the Biden family and other political allies establish relationships in Ukraine that would set the stage for corrupt distribution of US aid in the event we send some consequent of the current situation.?

He owns the border and the hundreds of thousands of drug overdoses that have come as a result of our policy change.

He owns the most diverse cabinet in history. Unfortunately not a single one of them was put in place based on merit. Collectively they would have a hard time dumping change out of a boot when the instructions are on the heel.
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Old 02-24-2022, 07:18 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by baygo View Post
He also has to own Russia moving into Ukraine. It’s happening on his watch. It happened when he was in the VP role and it wasn’t even thought of while Trump was in office. We also have to be cognizant of one potential reality. Did the Biden family and other political allies establish relationships in Ukraine that would set the stage for corrupt distribution of US aid in the event we send some consequent of the current situation.?
Not buying this after all the video of Trump groveling like a schoolboy at Putin's feet. Stuff like Trump taking Putin's word over that of CIA, NSA, etc. Happy to find the video if any don't remember this embarrassment.

All this stuff is years in the making--Putin's been angling for it for decades. Bush, Obama, Trump missed it. Romney got it (and none of us took him seriously)
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Old 02-24-2022, 07:29 PM   #20
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Wrong.
The pipeline was not completed over the four years under President Trump... and the oil is not simply sitting in tanks... it is being entered into the market and refined as we speak. The pipeline would have lowered transportation costs, and created what was most likely a safer means of transporting it.
Also, the domestic oil production is up after the fall to 9 million barrels during the pandemic; conservative estimates place the US on a record crude production next year. I stated conservative because those estimates have always fell short... the last estimate suggested that current production would not be reached for another ten months.

Russia didn't have to move into the Ukraine under Trump... Trump was already restricting military aid that the Congress had passed (one of the times he was impeached). If you are Russia, you need to move quickly under Biden... before the Ukraine has a chance to fortify its position or seek NATO alliance - something that was not going to happen under President Trump.

The border is really more of question whether you support Engels' Reserve Army of Labor Theory or you don't.

The drug deaths are do to people choosing to do drugs. It is like tobacco related deaths... it is a choice.

The inflation is do to an overheated economy and the refusal of individuals to choose to consume less. We see it every day at work... regardless of what happens to pricing... they just keep coming.

For those of us that are actually capitalist and conservatives... we see the market downturn as a buying opportunity, and never purchased anything that we didn't need to... regardless of how cheap it was.

The people crying are either trying to illicit political change... which they won't... or are living above their means and upset that the world is about to bring them back to reality - because the prices are going to keep going up until people stop wasting it.
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Old 02-24-2022, 07:32 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Descant View Post
You forgot the southern border which is costing us a fortune.
I wouldn't be worried so much about inflation if my retirement investments were inflating in parallel, but that isn't happening. Quite the opposite.
Change investments. Or hold the course and gain on the opposite side. Proper asset allocation has been shown to be the most deciding factor over time.
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Old 02-24-2022, 08:06 PM   #22
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Default Take a Guess

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Originally Posted by The Real BigGuy View Post
Just to be clear, the OP would lead you to believe the US was oil Independant “a few years ago.” This is incorrect. We were “energy Independant” due to our exportation of natural gas with surpassed our importation of oil.


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OP - I guess that's me...

I don't think I implied Oil Independent as I stated Energy - but acknowledged point > natural gas is probably going to jump as well. But I don't use that in my boat! AND again looking at the glass half full, we are past the worse of the cold/winter weather for the majority of country and should help counteract heating costs.

Back to Winni business - any more guesses on lake gas prices?
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Old 02-24-2022, 08:32 PM   #23
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Natural gas has already jumped in price... but not because we are producing less... but because we are exporting more to Europe and using more domestically for all the chemicals we need to keep the economy going at this pace.

As natural gas prices increase, what can be turned over to less expensive oil, is turned over.

If you look at the ISO-NE, you would see oil consumption for electric generation... something we didn't have in the recent past due to the low cost of natural gas making oil generation too expensive to contemplate.
You would also see us using more coal. It take longer to fire up the coal plant than the oil... but the coal is less expensive than the oil.

https://www.energy.gov/articles/trum...port-term-2050

Not sure you can see that article on this one...
https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ia-2022-02-24/

So we may be exporting more crude in the future.
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