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View Poll Results: What have you seen of the Covid-19 Virus
Don't know anyone that might have it 70 78.65%
Know someone that might have it 17 19.10%
Was exposed to someone that might have it 4 4.49%
Think I have it 0 0%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 89. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 03-14-2020, 08:20 AM   #1
Lakegeezer
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Default Covid-19 Poll of the Lakes Region

With little official information about the local presence of the pandemic, here's a poll to get a sense of what's going on.
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Last edited by Lakegeezer; 03-17-2020 at 08:55 PM. Reason: Add date to title
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Old 03-14-2020, 04:41 PM   #2
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If folks are honest with this poll, this could be interesting. No media twists, no editorial spin, just pure data. I'm watching this one for sure. Great post!
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Old 03-15-2020, 07:24 AM   #3
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Exclamation It's Been Worse...

Here, CDC gives background of the disastrous 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, and how it got around a world lacking jet travel.

How an aging Swedish physician got us started with flu vaccines. (Not too much science-talk):

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...918-virus.html
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Old 03-15-2020, 11:41 PM   #4
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Default Compound growth isn't just for loans

It's early days, but COVID-19 has been showing a 15% daily growth rate. That means 100 fold increase each 33 days. 10,000 in 66 days. So unless we can slow it down that's 3,000,000 US cases with 100,000 to 200,000 dead depending on whether we get the global average mortality, or Italy (6.8% dead, 9% critical, 250 died on Thursday, nearly 400 today). So what are you looking for with this post? It reminds me of standing at the fire watcher station in Mesa Verde in July 2000. The ranger was running around and looked worried. But there was nothing in particular to see. Not that I saw. Maybe a wisp of smoke. Twenty minutes later we were fleeing the park and it burned to the ground behind us.
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Old 03-17-2020, 12:52 PM   #5
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I think this poll is frankly not very useful when we all know that testing is in no way available for the number of people who want to be tested.
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Old 03-17-2020, 05:22 PM   #6
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Can I change my vote? I now know someone who has TESTED positive.
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Old 03-17-2020, 08:53 PM   #7
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Default New poll each week?

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Originally Posted by jeffk View Post
Can I change my vote? I now know someone who has TESTED positive.
Sorry Jeffk. I don't think there is a way to change your vote. I realized that shortly after the poll went up. Perhaps we should start a new one at the beginning of each week and watch how it changes.
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Old 03-17-2020, 10:26 PM   #8
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Thumbs up Useful for the Lakes Region...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Andromeda321 View Post
I think this poll is frankly not very useful when we all know that testing is in no way available for the number of people who want to be tested.
By mid-summer, that red bar will slow down.

Even at the newly-opened "drive-throughs", applicants will be screened to determine if the test is necessary. Symptoms would have to be apparent. A doctor's prescription would be best. As in Ebola determinations, it is at this early stage that errors can be introduced.

Like the CDC test for the Ebola disease, the CDC's Covid-19 tests are not 100% accurate. A faster, better, test was approved by the FDA only this week. A private firm, who pioneered in this form of testing, Roche can supply 400,000 tests, producing them within 24 hours.

As for "flattening the curve", isolation will extend the exposure period into September but reduce the fatal aspects of Covid-19 on those aged into their 70s. (Blue line >70s).
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Old 03-23-2020, 08:49 PM   #9
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Arrow Better a Navy Doctor...but...

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Originally Posted by Lakegeezer View Post
Sorry Jeffk. I don't think there is a way to change your vote. I realized that shortly after the poll went up. Perhaps we should start a new one at the beginning of each week and watch how it changes.
Good idea.

Today, a retired Army doctor has put forth his dispassionate opinion of how COVID-19 will proceed. Since he's addressed other questioners, I've shortened his response for clarity:

Quote:
"The new deaths will continue to increase until the impact of our isolation program kicks in. We will see the number of new deaths start to increase then.. think of it as a supply chain.

"[T]hink of it as a roller coaster train going up a hill. The new infected are in the front car, the mild in the next, the seriously ill in the next, and the dying in the last.

"Obviously, the dying are going to be the 'last over the hump'. That will happen next weekend some time and the number of total [US] dead will be around 5,000 which is what I sort of guessed days ago.

"The scary part will be when half of that comes in just 24 to 36 hours. People may panic. Donít. Itís to be expected".
I think he's got a handle on this "viral" epidemic, and plan to ask for corrections following this weekend. Much depends on how well our citizens have "sheltered-in-place" or should have isolated themselves.
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