Special treat: An Eruption Cam

[CanisLupusArctos]

It's not too often we get to witness one of the world's most interesting and unprecedented volcanic eruptions in a webcam. But here it is: The Chaiten Volcano in southern Chile.

http://www.aipchile.cl/camara/ftp/CH...e/C1_00028.jpg

Chaiten erupted in early May after being dormant for some 7,500 to 9,000 years. It offered very little warning. It was a very explosive eruption, producing an ash plume that reached 20 km high for a very short time. Then it calmed down but kept erupting, and just a couple days ago it roared back to life with a high ash plume again.

Why is this important to here? Volcanoes like this have the capability to cool the world climate for up to 3 years (as Mt. Pinatubo did, in 1991-94.) So far, Chaiten hasn't done enough to accomplish that. The fine print is that it's been full of surprises since it erupted over a month ago. Its behavior has proven beyond prediction. Since its last eruption was over 5,000 years BC, there's no modern record of its behavior.

That's what makes this cam so interesting. The volcano is the geologist's dream, something totally new, previously unstudied, unknown, off the radar, and has all kinds of unusual features, and it has the capability on a moment's notice to do something that will produce really thick lake ice for the next 2 or 3 winters. Whether it will or not is a matter of "wait and see." And we just happen to have a Cam pointing right at it.

The town in the foreground is the ruined, evacuated town of Chaiten. The volcano is straight ahead in the view. The cam is one of three at the town's airport, and has kept running through it all.

For coverage of this volcano, visit The Volcanism Blog (it covers other volcano topics also.) Also read the Eruptions blog, which is written by a geologist who's originally from MA. I found the blogs to be much more informative than any of the news coverage when it originally erupted.

[SIKSUKR]

I was wondering how you were going to make the Lakes region connection.Interesting stuff for sure.Thanks for sharing.

[Steveo]

Why does it "cool the world". I am assuming cloud cover to block out sun?

[CanisLupusArctos]

You're welcome. Plus I figured how so many of us love watching the lake cams, this one is probably one of the most interesting in the world at the moment.

I should emphasize that IF this volcano's eruption reaches a world-class grand finale, the effects on our next two-three years' weather around the world (including here) would go beyond thicker Winnipesaukee lake ice.

Steveo, you're basically right. The S02 content from a volcanic eruption mixes with water vapor (humidity) in the air to form microscopic sulfuric acid droplets. If that takes place at extremely high altitude and with enough volume of S02, it circles the world and takes 2-3 years to get out of the atmosphere. The sulfuric acid droplets reflect sunlight back into space. Down here, they make really nice sunrises and sunsets. I have a nice collection of Pinatubo Sunsets and Sunrises in my photo archive, as do many other people.

For effects of past eruptions, Google the following:

"Mt Pinatubo 1991 effect on climate"

"New England Year without a summer 1815"
(this came from Mt. Tambora, the most extreme climate-altering eruption of modern times.)

Then, imagine either one of those scenarios entering the mix of everything else we're seeing in the nightly headlines right now.

Of course, Chaiten could decide to settle right back down and go to sleep for another 7,000+ years. No one knows.

[KBoater]

IF it is in the southern hemisphere do we get the effects?

[CanisLupusArctos]

FLBoater, yes we do. It depends, however. Many geologists think that what it has already emitted may be enough to affect the southern hemisphere a little.

To alter the world climate, like Mt. Pinatubo did in 1991, it would have to really blast its cap and get that ash plume into the stratosphere for more than just a fleeting photo-op. Most of the geologists whose blogs I've read online agree that it has the capability to do that, but they also agree that no one, even those on scene, can possibly know what it will do next because it's been so long since it last went off and people have never studied it at all until about a month ago.

In the web cam we will witness one of the following:

1) The volcano goes back to sleep and the town in the image starts looking cleaner as people move back in. We get no effects here.

2) The volcano keeps erupting steadily for months, with explosions and lulls. We get no effects here but the southern hemisphere could see some cooling effects depending on the intensity of the explosions.

3) Chaiten shows us what it can do. The present eruption culminates in a grand finale with ash plume sustained above 20 km in height, and our next three ice fishing seasons are extra-long as a result. Decembers like 1989, Januaries like 2004, and Februaries/Marches like 2007. Tuckerman Ravine could potentially keep a slab of snow through the summer, which would probably be similar to what we've had so far this year at the lake. The cooling effect would also be year round, and round the world. Oh yes, and this web site's photopost section would be filling to the brim with fantastic sunrise and sunset scenes.


And, in the unlikely but very possible event of #3, the mainstream media, which doesn't cover scientific topics like this very well, would probably take a while to get the message across - if it did at all. That would mean you could say you heard it first on Winnipesaukee.com!

[Orion]

....and heat up this place with some more global warming before this thing blows!

[Rattlesnake Gal]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

"New England Year without a summer 1815"
(this came from Mt. Tambora, the most extreme climate-altering eruption of modern times.)

Also referred to "eighteen hundred and starve to death."

According to The Gunstock Parish by Adair D. Mulligan, there was frost in every month of 1816. Fierce winds were blowing from the north all summer long. People froze to death in a Lakes Region snowstorm on Jun 17th. Wood for the upcoming winter had to be burned that summer. July of was even colder than June, with ice half and inch thick over the ponds and in August they froze to over an inch thick. Heavy snow fell on August 30. One eyewitness described summer that year as being bleak and dreary as November, with nothing green to be seen anywhere.

I sure hope it doesn't happen again!

For those who would like to learn more about Lake Winnipesaukee’s interesting history and vivid accounts of life here in the early days, visit Thompson-Ames Historical Society and order The Gunstock Parish by Adair D. Mulligan. It is an amazing read!

[TimmyG]

Canis:
I heard on a news report within the past week or so, I do not recall where, that scientist discovered an erupting volcano deep in the ocean below the North Pole. As such, the report said, that within a couple of years there could be, for the first time ever recorded by man, a lack of significant polar ice at the North Pole.
1. Have you heard anything on this story?
2. In your opinion, if you have heard this, what effect does this have on the "climate change" debate that has been so widely blamed on mankind?

Thank you in advance for your expert testimony!

TG

[CanisLupusArctos]

Timmy G, I heard that too, only within the last few weeks. The best analysis I heard about it reflects common sense and thus wins my agreement: An entire ocean of water is incredibly good at dispersing heat, and a volcano under an ocean would have to be earth-shatteringly humongous in order to heat up all that water enough to melt the ice.

With regards to the climate change debate I am constantly finding out more, usually from the blogs of scientists who oppose the science portrayed by the media. Curiously, their opinions have been excluded from the news reports, which in journalism is a no-no. You're supposed to have both sides of every debate in order to have an accurate news report. The news reports have been portraying it like a proven law, which is strange considering the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) theory, "Man created it" was never more than a theory. Yes, warming was proven through the 1900s. The cause has never been determined. Scientifically speaking, anything that hasn't been proven as law ("gravity") is still open to question and testing, and from a journalistic standpoint it therefore is a story that has two sides.

According to the blogs of the opposition scientists, the world's warmest year was 1998, and a recent study even knocks it back to the 1930s ("Dust Bowl" era.) The antarctic ice sheet is growing, although ice is being lost in a couple of places that keep getting attention. There has been talk of a volcano discovered under one of those ice shelfs, which would be capable of melting the ice since the heat transfer would be almost directly from the rock to the ice above.

The arctic ice sheet grew a lot last winter. It grew a lot more than any of the AGW promoters thought, because one of the world's three best icebreakers took a boatload of them for a "last look at the ice" cruise through what they thought was easily-breakable ice and it got stuck, then frozen in. I believe I linked to that report in a thread on this forum somewhere. It was about a month ago. According to Weather Underground's sea temperature map (and several of the bloggers I read) Hudson's Bay in Canada is mostly frozen even now - July 3.

Some of the other stuff the bloggers have pointed out is that the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans have warm and cold cycles, each lasting for many years. The Pacific just went into cold phase, which is likely going to affect the North American climate, but it has very little access to the arctic. The Atlantic still has a few years left in its present warm phase, and one look at a map shows that this ocean has a great deal of access to the Arctic.

In Greenland's history (which I read several years ago and the bloggers also point out) there was a lot more farming than there is today, an indicator that Greenland was recently warm enough to sustain more people than it does today. The ruins of their culture can still be seen.

One of my favorite blogs (from meteorologist Anthony Watts at wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com) has been conducting his own study of how well-sited the instruments of weather stations are. A lot of the more historic stations (like Boston) were established when those locations were small cities or maybe even glorified towns. Now they're filled with pavement and bricks. Ever touch that stuff after it's been sitting in the summer sun? You need oven mitts. In the mid-90s, the National Weather Service relocated a lot of their offices into less-urbanized areas (like Gray ME instead of Portland, and Taunton MA instead of Boston). I remember at the time they said part of the reason was for weather readings that are more capable of representing the area... away from all the pavement and building materials that make it 98 degrees in Boston when it's only 90 in the wooded suburbs. Watts has found a lot of weather stations whose temperature sensors are located too close to parking lots, driveways, or heated buildings.

A few other things I find curious are the fact that no AGW report in the mainstream press seems to cover the pollutants as I learned them in college, never mind from AGW-opposers. These include the fact that water vapor is the biggest greenhouse gas out there (level of humidity, which is water vapor, plays a huge role in my temperature forecasts.) That's followed by methane. CO2 is weak compared to those two. Recently I've been hearing a lot of hype over "clean coal - emits less CO2". I find that surprising because the biggest problem we had with coal before was sulfur. Sulfur combines with water to make sulfuric acid -- acid rain. But everyone seems obsessed with carbon, the basic building block of life.

A recent study some of the bloggers linked to stated that NASA sattelites found the earth's plants are more productive than we've ever recorded, and linked it to CO2. THAT I find plausible, because plants breathe CO2 like we breathe oxygen. When someone's not doing so well, paramedics will put that person on high-flow oxygen (by mask) because it's what we need. I'm an asthmatic, so I've been given oxygen before and I have to say it made me feel great! Especially after the asthma attack passes and it's just extra oxygen... going back to normal room air is almost disappointing. For plants, CO2 is the equivalent. Give it to them, and they won't refuse it. They'll use it. And they exhale oxygen.

Like many people I'm losing more of my trust for the mainstream media all the time. This distrust started a few years ago when a couple of the Boston TV meteorologists told me of the battles they were facing whenever dealing with the newsroom. The newsrooms were just beginning their ratings wars, and the meteorologists felt that coverage of their (our) science was getting compromised by it. Nowadays it's a lot more obvious.

Since I don't spend my days poking thermometers into glaciers, I have to rely on information sources. Part of my background is journalism (a job I have worked before) so I decided to be a journalist for myself and seek out sources on both sides of the AGW debate. The AGW theorists are easy to find; just turn on the news. The opposers aren't hard to find either, but you have to do a little searching. I would urge everyone to read as much as you can from both sides and make your own call. I haven't made up my mind 100% but when I apply each new report to things I know, I'm finding the AGW opposers are making more sense. For example: people are blaming the midwestern floods on AGW, but in order to get moisture to precipitate out of the air rapidly ("heavy precipitation"), you need to mix a lot of cold into the equation.

One blogger pointed out that the whole topic of "Climate Change," from a language perspective, is a very general term that literally refers to an action science has proven to be perfectly normal: This planet's climate has never stayed the same. It is a living planet, always changing. If what they really mean is "Manmade global warming" then they should just call it that, so that at least people won't freak out over the fact that this planet is an ever-changing one. If AGW is real, let them freak out about that, but only keeping in mind that with or without AGW, this earth will continue to change, and it will continue to prove that it has about the same regard for us as we do for ants.

After all this, one might think I'm opposed to clean air - not true at all. I'm an asthmatic. I have trouble breathing man-made exhaust fumes especially on those hot summer days in the city. But what bothers me is that no one seems to want to clean up the air for health reasons. They're focusing almost all the effort on reducing pollution in the name of AGW rather than the simple fact that people (like me) choke on those fumes.

Bringing this back to volcanoes (this thread,) one highly explosive volcano could definitely change the climate. Rattlesnake Gal, thank you for sharing that info! I had never read that account.

The geologists watching Chaiten have been baffled from the beginning, and they still are. Right now we're watching an ongoing eruption that seems to be settling down. Or it could be that the new lava dome has plugged the hole and pressure's still building behind it. No one knows. A few have said it possesses the capability to be another Tambora, while most are saying it would be more like Pinatubo if had a big explosion.

Sorry if that was a lot more info than you bargained for! I've been doing a lot of reading lately. But now it's time to do some swimming.

disclosure: The Bloggers include www.seablogger.com (an admitted amateur who seems to be respected by those who know a lot more.)... http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com.... www.climateaudit.org.... and others that they link to.

[SIKSUKR]

Awsome awsome stuff CLA.Right up my alley.You pretty much sum up what I've been telling anyone who jumps on the media driven global warming bandwagon.It's actually a pretty sad reflection on the liberal biased media that has been brainwashing people for years.Thanks for your well thought out point of view.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Thank you. I prefer to think of it as a science-watching rather than opinions, since science in its purest form is what it is regardless of anyone's opinion. Accurate numbers don't care what we think; we can only react. In order to react correctly, we need the most accurate numbers.

You can find many meteorologists and weather reporters in the mainstream media offering tidbits of what's really going on. Here are three examples.

1. A couple months ago on the NBC TODAY show, the morning's top story was the ongoing severe weather in the midwest. Meredith Viera asked Al Roker something like, "So these thunderstorms being caused by all the warm air?" Roker responded no, they were triggered by cold fronts from Canada ramming into the warmer air ahead of them. Viera did not pursue it further and transitioned to the next story.

2. Some weather watchers, when making internet posts, have noted that The Weather Channel seems to have strayed from a 24-hour weather network to a 24-hour climate alarm network with breaks for weather forecasts. In their posts, the disgruntled viewers note that many of TWC's most respected on-camera meteorologists do not comment on global warming at all.

3. Last night, WBZ-TV 4's Ken Barlow gave the weather for Boston, and he predicted more thunderstorms for this week as the heat moves back into New England. But, he said, the storms will be triggered by unusually cold air over Canada that continues to make moves at us -- the reason we've had such an active severe weather season nationwide.

The science in the mainstream media is subtle, but it's there.

The concern about the volcano (Chaiten) is that if it erupts powerfully enough, it would create 2-3 years of cooling on top of the major climate indicators (solar cycle, Pacific Decadal Oscillation) that are pointing toward "cool" now. And everyone would be caught thinking, "I thought it was supposed to get warmer." As Seablogger pointed out, cooler times call for more food and more fuel -- two things that are currently in crisis mode.

[CanisLupusArctos]

The Chaiten volcano had a major explosion today. A few weeks ago it seemed like it had been quieting down. Then the quakes started to increase in number. In the last few days they increased in intensity. The last couple of days the total number of quakes has been declining in number but the number of stronger quakes (4.0) has remained about the same.

At this time it still hasn't done anything that would lower worldwide temps (as far as anyone can tell,) but that is definitely back within the realm of possibility now. Today's quakes were strong enough to cause motion blur in the webcams, and visible rocking of the radio towers in their view.

For good blog coverage, visit

www.seablogger.com (look for Chaiten updates - he comments on just about every other topic on earth.)

www.volcanism.wordpress.com

www.eruptions.wordpress.com

[SAMIAM]

Just wondering if the co2 from the volcano will offset the energy used by Al Gores mansion.....maybe we can all buy some carbon credits.

[CanisLupusArctos]

According to Alan Sullivan ("Seablogger,") the activity at Chaiten has quieted down and there is suddenly reason to believe the most recent episode was its finale. Time will tell. Sullivan also points out that potentially climate-altering volcanic activity is threatening to go off in the Alutian islands of Alaska. From what the bloggers have said, the 1900s were volcanically quiet around the world, compared to previous modern centuries, but the earth's surface plates seem to be breaking the built-up tension more recently.

SAMIAM, may I assume you meant "SO2" instead of "CO2?" Volcanoes are known for sulfur emissions - like the dirty coal people used to burn in the 1800s. Sulfur causes acid rain (in the case of a volcano it is naturally occurring acid rain) but if it gets into the upper atmosphere in large quantities it reacts with tiny suspended water droplets to form acid droplets which sort of act as a reflector, bouncing solar rays back into space. It would take a few years to get all the acid droplets to finally mix down and rain out of the air, and the earth would be cooler in the meantime. Since NH normally gets a cold winter everyone is already concerned about what would happen if we had a harsh winter with fuel prices high, that is why I posted this information on the Winnipesaukee Forum. Of course if Chaiten or any other volcano suddenly blasts a load of sulfur into the stratosphere we can also look at the positive angle: We probably wouldn't be needing to talk about whether or not the Ice Fishing Derby had thick enough ice, and we probably wouldn't be worrying about Gunstock's slopes melting in mid-winter. I say burn wood to keep warm and let's go volcano!