Very Cold Weather thru Jan.17

CanisLupusArctos · 01-10-2009, 06:08 PM

Very wintry weather is likely this week. Tonight there is a winter weather advisory for the lakes region as we'll see 3 to 5 inches of snow. This will be very fluffy snow, as temps are in the teens and dewpoints in the single numbers. The most snow will fall in the southern part of the area. A winter storm warning is in effect for the southern part of the state south of a line from about Lebanon-Concord-Rochester. Along this line I would expect about 6 inches of snow to fall tonight and tomorrow. South of this line, amounts of 8 inches are possible, with the average being 6. South of the Massachusetts border, a few places may have 10-inch totals with the average being about 7 inches.

We'll have another chance of snow on Tuesday.

The real story is what happens when Tuesday's storm departs. Temperatures in Alaska and neighboring Yukon Territory are currently as low as -54 F. This air will be making its way towards us this week. Tuesday's storm will pull it down from Canada. This air won't be moderating much because of the snowcover we now have.

Between Wednesday and Saturday I would not be surprised to see at least one station in the lakes region reach a low of -20 F. Highs on Thursday and Friday will likely stay around zero... perhaps as high as 5 degrees.

Pineedles · 01-11-2009, 11:09 AM

CLA,
With the Alaskan air coming in so cold, does it effect the temperature on Mt. Washington; Or does the mountain have its own weather due to altitude?

This'nThat · 01-11-2009, 02:49 PM

The Mt Washington staff said this morning that their current "warm" spell (low teens for highs; zero for lows) will come to an abrupt end mid-week. So yes, they will also be affected.

MAXUM · 01-11-2009, 06:51 PM

Thank goodness for "global warming", sounds like we are in for some downright balmy weather!

So I'm really curious as to why during the winter time we tend to be affected by storms and weather that originate in Canada or Alaska (as in this case) where not so much in the summer time? I know much of that has to do with the jet stream(s), but I never did get why thier placement and flow seems to different between summer and winter. Or is my observation completely wrong?

SAMIAM · 01-12-2009, 07:40 AM

Don't mean to get political,but in case you haven't noticed,global warming is nothing but a hoax,designed to make you feel happy about paying "carbon" taxes on everything that uses fuel.....shhhhhhhhh...Don will probably toss this if he see's it.

Webbsatwinni · 01-12-2009, 08:25 AM

Will the colder temperatures impact on the ice growth be slowed by the amount of snow that fell over the weekend?

jeffk · 01-12-2009, 01:26 PM

There is some insulating effect.

A couple of bits:

Ten inches of fresh snow with a density of 0.07 inches, seven percent water, is approximately equal to a six-inch-layer of fiberglass insulation with an insulation R-value of R-18.

Snow has an R-1 value per inch.

Obviously the fluff factor has a significant effect on the insulating value.

However, with temps dropping overnight to -10 and day temps struggling to get to 10 I'm sure there will be good ice buildup.

This'nThat · 01-12-2009, 07:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MAXUM

Thank goodness for "global warming", sounds like we are in for some downright balmy weather!

So I'm really curious as to why during the winter time we tend to be affected by storms and weather that originate in Canada or Alaska (as in this case) where not so much in the summer time? I know much of that has to do with the jet stream(s), but I never did get why thier placement and flow seems to different between summer and winter. Or is my observation completely wrong?

The jet stream is the key. First, the definition of the jet stream: The jet stream marks the boundary between cold arctic air to the north and warm tropical air to the south. The jet stream's strength depends on the temperature difference between these two air masses. The jet stream is strongest during the winter, when the temperature difference is greatest.

So, in the winter, you have two factors contributing to the Canadian storms: (1) Strength of the jet stream, and (2) Position of the jet stream. Strength - Since the temperature at the equator is constant, the cold Canadian air during winter increases the temperature difference, thereby strengthing the jet stream. Position - The jet stream is over Canada and Alaska in the summer; moving South over the northern U.S. and southern Canada during the winter, as the cold air boundary expands.

So, since cold air is heavy, and the jet stream is strong and directly over us in the winter, it creates a "funnel" of sorts, periodically drawing chunks of real cold air from Alaska and Canada. When this cold air hits the warm air (along the jet stream), big storms form.

That's it in a nutshell.

CanisLupusArctos · 01-13-2009, 03:09 PM

The simplest reason for Canadian weather in the winter and Gulf of Mexico weather in summer is the angle of the sun. Cold air is nature's aggressor, like a football player. It lives north of us. In the winter, the sun completely disappears from up there, which is like feeding vitamins and protien supplements to the football player. It starts barging everything out of its way and claiming lots of territory.

When the sun gets higher in the sky, it takes away the vitamins from the football player, who then must remain on the sidelines. When that happens, the opposing team of geeks (warm air) can take the field and win, because the cold air is on the bench.

How cold the air gets in any given winter depends on a lot of things. But the whole reason our weather comes from the north in winter is because the cold air builds to a point where it starts spilling. It's heavy stuff... like water. Warm air is lightweight.

All through this past summer, however, the cold fronts remained active. That is why we had so much severe weather. Severe weather is caused by cold fronts barging warm moist air out of the way.

Our weather actually does come from the south a good deal in winter, too. That's what gives us snowstorms. The north is very, very dry. In order to have snow you need moisture. We get snowstorms when the southern moisture comes at us while there's northern cold in place.

The best snowstorms happen when the southbound cold makes it as far south as the Georgia coast and meets warm moist air on a northbound course, forming a snowstorm that also takes that course.

Regarding Mount Washington, they aren't high enough to get their own weather that's independent of the rest of New England. They get their own version of what's happening in the rest of New England.

When it's windy and cold in all of New England, they will be colder by far. And a lot windier. When it's clear/calm/cold, and the valleys are getting down to -35, the summit might be at zero... warmer... because in calm conditions with clear skies (no blanket of cloud to hold the heat in) the cold air pools down into the valleys (as water would) and the day's heat rises toward the stars. When the White Mountains are having a big storm, the summit of Mt. Washington will have the biggest storm... but since snow is a low-level phenomenon (and lakes region snow doesn't always show up on Gray ME's radar as a result) it is not uncommon for Mt. Washington to break into the clear (with "undercast") while the lower summits are still in the snow.

Snowstorms often do that when they're departing... you'll start seeing moonlight--meaning all the upper level clouds are gone--but it'll keep snowing another inch or two and it probably won't show up on radar, either. The activity might be confined between the ground and 5,000 feet. The radar beam from Gray ME is angled up from its origin so as to reduce the amount of "ground clutter" they pick up, and so it passes over the lakes region at about 9,000 feet. That's just fine for summertime severe weather, when you have rain & hail columns 45,000 feet tall.

When "the unseen snow" happens, you could head over to Laconia Airport and take a plane up "above the deck", maybe 6,000 feet, to get some great pics of the storm's remnants below. To the north, you'd probably see Mount Washington's summit cone sticking up above the deck, too.

The best way to understand weather is to "think in 3D." The biggest challenge for most people is that air flows in ways that are similar to water, but we can SEE water. So everyone understands rivers and lakes better than the atmosphere. Take turbulence, for example. Waves in the sky, similar to waves on the lake. Once people get that analogy, weather tends to "click" a lot better for them.

As for the rest of this week, I think we're going to be hearing a lot of cracking and booming coming from the lake ice. It's going to be growing. Once we get some wind to blow off some of the powdery snow on the ice, combined with very dry air to help evaporate some of it, there won't be as much snowy insulation on top of the ice. I don't think Friday's daytime temps around here will get above zero.

SAMIAM · 01-13-2009, 03:13 PM

OK.....I'm ready for a showdown here. RES2B has called for a major thaw on the last 10 days of January. CANISLUPUSARCTOS has not weighed in.Whatta ya' say Canis,do you agree?.....also how about a prediction for early feb.

CanisLupusArctos · 01-13-2009, 03:40 PM

I don't trust models that long-range. They keep messing up. Either last year or the year before, I watched all those long-range forecasts repeatedly say "above normal temps" and winter kept coming, and coming, and coming... finally they gave up and started calling for more of the same. That's what it looked like, anyway! I learned a healthy distrust of those predictions from that.

This winter I do favor cold over warm. That doesn't mean warm can't beat the odds and make R2B right in his prediction for a few days (it might be a delayed January thaw he's seeing on the horizon), but I think the odds are in favor of cold until further notice because there are worldwide climate drivers (including the solar cycle) that have been turning earth's themostat down lately.

The Climate Prediction Center puts odds in favor of below-normal temps thru January 27 (that's as far out as they go) for most of the northern half of the US. Their long-range forecasts also change by the day sometimes... one day they're calling for warmer than normal week ahead, and then they change it the next day. I know girls who change their minds less often than the CPC does.

Resident 2B · 01-13-2009, 04:30 PM

At this point, I do not see the thaw coming in for the last ten days in January. This is a change to what I was predicting. I intended to look at this again tomorrow and if things were still not changing I would post that I was wrong with the forecast. Now that Samiam has started to rock-the-boat (in a nice way I must add), I need to come out and admit defeat.

In technical speak, the EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) is much more negative than I had expected. This is keeping a deep trough in place off Hawaii that is controlling the flow up and over the North Pole. This is moving the very cold air from the pole into Canada and, with little modification; it is continuing to move that polar air mass toward us. Because this trough has been in place for so long and is so deep, the air we are seeing is getting colder and colder. It is also moving these clipper systems near us, providing light snowfalls in the lakes region every few days.

This trough will break down and/or move sometime soon. I had expected this to be happening now, reducing the cold flow after this coming weekend and replacing it with a warm flow in our area in a week or so. But, this has not yet happened and the trough seems to be holding.

Once this cold spell is over, I expect a decent thaw, but this is more likely a February event than a January event as it looks right now. It could also start off with a decent storm as the air masses clash near us. If the storm goes west of us, we would get rain, east and it is snow.

I do not use models for longer range forecasts as they are not really meant for that. Teleconnections are used for long range, but they obviously do not work all the time.

The front that will be coming through late tonight means busibess and we will see very cold weather the next few days along with some wind to drive down the wind-chill.

For now, I admit I was wrong about the January thaw. I hope to get better at this with age!

R2B

BoulderBronco · 01-13-2009, 05:43 PM

Don't feel bad about being "wrong." You can't be expected to predict the weather 2-4 weeks out. Hell the fancy meterologists with all their fancy equipment can't predict the weather over a two day period nevermind 4 weeks. Now what would be perfect if this cold held on for another 2-3 weeks creating a solid 20" of ice throughout the lake. Then come derby weekend we get a "heat wave" of 40-50* temps. Remember a few years ago (2005 I think.) It was unreal. Good, not great, ice and unbelieveable weather. I was out there in my T-shirt. I almolst convinced the girlfriend to sport her Bikini. Lets do that again!

Resident 2B · 01-14-2009, 01:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BoulderBronco

Now what would be perfect if this cold held on for another 2-3 weeks creating a solid 20" of ice throughout the lake. Then come derby weekend we get a "heat wave" of 40-50* temps. Remember a few years ago (2005 I think.) It was unreal. Good, not great, ice and unbelieveable weather. I was out there in my T-shirt. I almolst convinced the girlfriend to sport her Bikini. Lets do that again!

That very well may be the case again this year! In fact, the ice will likely be better.

Bottom line is the lake should be safe, as the ice should be solid and thick. That is great for the local economy and for the folks that come to the lake from all over to enjoy our winter sports and activities.

I hope you enjoy your time here in February. I should there be poking around, taking pictures and saying hello to friends. The people that work so hard planning Derby Weekend deserve a great event. They should have one this year!

The next few days will be very, very cold. I hope the folks that live up here year-round are able to keep their families warm and safe. It is really tough for many of them. You have to be here most of the year to see it and understand.

R2B

tpabrad · 01-14-2009, 01:22 AM

Hi guys, I visit the area every winter and have been watching these boards for a while, may have posted once, cant remember though.

I live on the west coast of Florida, so we have an interesting weather pattern here. During the summer I track and watch the hurricanes, and usually watch them go around us. In my almost 30 years of living here we havent been hit too bad. Unfortunately that will change one day.

I never really paid attention to the weather up north until I started visiting 2 years ago.

One interesting comment that was made was how the storms bring up the warm from the south to meet up with the cold and cause the snowstorms. When these cold fronts hit us its always in the high 60's or 70's and then once the storm passes it gets cold. I know it hasnt snowed in this area in about 30 years. I would think we would have to get multiple cold fronts to go by with the right timing for it to happen again.

We have 2 going through us right now and its supposed to get into the low 30's in a day or two. Probably not cold for you guys, but thats pretty cold for us warm blooded folk!

Anyways keep up the great discussions, always good information to be read!

Brad

CanisLupusArctos · 01-14-2009, 09:00 AM

R2B is right in saying this will likely flop over to a warm spell. That's what happens. All winter long, the cold air tends to punch down from Canada on one side of the country or another. In response, the warm air bounces up where the cold air isn't punching down. When the western US gets the bitter cold punching down from Canada, the southern warm air reacts by bouncing up, and so we get warmth like what we had between Christmas and New Years.

Then it all flopped, with the cold air moving east and barging the warmth out of its way, and here we are. He also brings up a good point - storms are great agents of change in weather patterns. The stronger the storm, the more likely it is that the pattern will be different after it passes. The best example I've seen recently was the historic nor'easter of April 15-17, 2007. That one started off as snow, changed to rain, cleared a foot of clear ice from the lake with 45 mph sustained winds, lots of damage, but by the time it was over the lake was almost at iceout, and the weather pattern was favorable for warm air to move in. A week later, we were hitting 80 and iceout was declared.

No major pattern change for at least the next several days, however. This is dangerous cold for the entire area. For the rest of the week, we will not likely see 10 degrees again until maybe Saturday, perhaps Sunday.

On Black Cat Island we had snow showers while the front passed, then the wind picked up to 30 mph in the predawn hours, bringing in the cold. Temps since sunrise have been in the single numbers and continue to fall. An hour ago we were at 7 degrees... now we are 4 degrees. This trend will continue.

Tomorrow will have a high of about 5. Tomorrow night will be the coldest night in at least 2 years for much of the area... I would not be surprised to see a reading of 20 below zero (actual air temp) somewhere in the lakes region on Friday morning.

Friday's high will probably not reach zero. I'll go for a high of 2 below zero on Friday, but I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up being colder.

Friday and Saturday nights will be "warmer" but still below zero. Doesn't look like we start to see moderation in the cold air until early next week. As R2B stated, it may take a storm to change the pattern.

jeffk · 01-14-2009, 11:56 AM

Does anyone have a rough estimate of how fast the ice thickens?

I know there are a bunch of factors, thickness of existing ice, snow cover, wind, currents, sun, clouds, etc. I'm not looking for an exact answer, just a rule of thumb.

Something like, for example, at 10 degrees a bare (no snow cover) ice surface will add about 1 inch of ice a day. You could then guesstimate a 4 day cold snap with temps 10 degrees or lower could add a half foot of ice or so.

I've poked around a bit and I found some rather complex formulas but no simple estimates.

This'nThat · 01-14-2009, 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeffk

Does anyone have a rough estimate of how fast the ice thickens?

The best rule of thumb is about 2cm/day ~ 1 inch per day for very cold days (`-25 C, -13F) and 15" ice thickness. Less if the ice is thick; more if the air temperature is colder; less with snow on the ice; more if you're on fresh water rather than sea water.

Go to the last 2 pages of this article to see some graphs (produced by NOAA) at various temperatures, ice thickness, and snow cover for sea water.

SAMIAM · 01-15-2009, 11:09 AM

Brad is the only smart one among us......he's watching all this as the sun melts the ice cubes in his margarita.Hopefully,we can sneak down to Ft Myers sometime this year.

tpabrad · 01-15-2009, 12:08 PM

Second cold front is passing over us today and we have a freeze warning in effect for tonight (ok stop laughing

). Freeze warnings are pretty rare this far south. We maybe get it once a season. So no ice melting weather today

fpartri497 · 01-15-2009, 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SAMIAM

Brad is the only smart one among us......he's watching all this as the sun melts the ice cubes in his margarita.Hopefully,we can sneak down to Ft Myers sometime this year.

Im In Ft. myers right now and Its cold!!!!! About 63 deg. I guess its better than being In concord NH right now though.

BoulderBronco · 01-15-2009, 01:53 PM

Whats the deal with the temp today? It says 14* on this site, 13* on weather.com for Meredith, yet weather.com says there is a forecast high today of 7*. Is it really 13* up there now or is the weather channel just failing at updating their forecasts?

hilltopper · 01-15-2009, 02:04 PM

Almost 13 degrees at Black Cat Island.

http://www.blackcatnh.com/weather/

CanisLupusArctos · 01-15-2009, 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hilltopper

Almost 13 degrees at Black Cat Island.

http://www.blackcatnh.com/weather/

...and that's as high as we got today: A high of 12.8 degrees.

It just slipped below zero. Currently falling at 2.3 degrees per hour. Do not expect tomorrow to be as "warm" as today.

fatlazyless · 01-16-2009, 07:42 AM

The Varney Point weather cam says the temp is -11.6 now at 7:30 am, and the coldest was -11.9 at 7:11 am.

Here in Waterville Valley, it is -22 on my mercury thermometer, at 7:33, altitude 1500', on the floor of the valley....maybe 25 miles north of Winnipesaukee ...perfectly clear skies, with the morning sun.

...talk about cold! ...and talk about an ice making factory...at -11 degrees, how much lake ice is formed in one night....about three or four inches from what I've seen?

kjbathe · 01-16-2009, 10:54 AM

I was looking online to find the record high and low for Concord (or Laconia). Not the record high or low by day, but the all-time high and all-time low, just to see how we compare.

Does anyone have that or know where I could go online to find it?

BoulderBronco · 01-16-2009, 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kjbathe

I was looking online to find the record high and low for Concord (or Laconia). Not the record high or low by day, but the all-time high and all-time low, just to see how we compare.

Does anyone have that or know where I could go online to find it?

Go to weather.com and look up the "averages". The link is under the forecast in an orange box. It shows averages by month or by day if you click on the daily averages. It also shows the records. Record low in Meredith for the 16th was -15* in 1994.

chipj29 · 01-16-2009, 12:15 PM

Got down to -24 at my house in Bow. That was at around 7 this morning.

kjbathe · 01-16-2009, 12:43 PM

For Laconia...

* The highest recorded temperature was 100°F in 1987.
* The lowest recorded temperature was -24°F in 1994.

SIKSUKR · 01-16-2009, 02:21 PM

Only 14 below at my house in Bedford.How about Whitefield and Berlin at minus 37?Yikes.The lowest,Fort Kent Maine at 52 below.Wow!It's a heatwave here next to those places.

trfour · 01-16-2009, 03:58 PM

Temps and more; http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28673142

PS, it is so cold.... that people are throwing shoes at Al Gore!!

01-10-2009, 06:08 PM	#1
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	Very Cold Weather thru Jan.17 Very wintry weather is likely this week. Tonight there is a winter weather advisory for the lakes region as we'll see 3 to 5 inches of snow. This will be very fluffy snow, as temps are in the teens and dewpoints in the single numbers. The most snow will fall in the southern part of the area. A winter storm warning is in effect for the southern part of the state south of a line from about Lebanon-Concord-Rochester. Along this line I would expect about 6 inches of snow to fall tonight and tomorrow. South of this line, amounts of 8 inches are possible, with the average being 6. South of the Massachusetts border, a few places may have 10-inch totals with the average being about 7 inches. We'll have another chance of snow on Tuesday. The real story is what happens when Tuesday's storm departs. Temperatures in Alaska and neighboring Yukon Territory are currently as low as -54 F. This air will be making its way towards us this week. Tuesday's storm will pull it down from Canada. This air won't be moderating much because of the snowcover we now have. Between Wednesday and Saturday I would not be surprised to see at least one station in the lakes region reach a low of -20 F. Highs on Thursday and Friday will likely stay around zero... perhaps as high as 5 degrees.

01-11-2009, 11:09 AM	#2
Pineedles Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Moultonborough & CT Posts: 2,535 Thanks: 1,059 Thanked 652 Times in 363 Posts	Mt Wash Question CLA, With the Alaskan air coming in so cold, does it effect the temperature on Mt. Washington; Or does the mountain have its own weather due to altitude?

01-14-2009, 01:22 AM	#15
tpabrad Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Tampa, FL Posts: 58 Thanks: 5 Thanked 3 Times in 3 Posts	Great weather talk! Hi guys, I visit the area every winter and have been watching these boards for a while, may have posted once, cant remember though. I live on the west coast of Florida, so we have an interesting weather pattern here. During the summer I track and watch the hurricanes, and usually watch them go around us. In my almost 30 years of living here we havent been hit too bad. Unfortunately that will change one day. I never really paid attention to the weather up north until I started visiting 2 years ago. One interesting comment that was made was how the storms bring up the warm from the south to meet up with the cold and cause the snowstorms. When these cold fronts hit us its always in the high 60's or 70's and then once the storm passes it gets cold. I know it hasnt snowed in this area in about 30 years. I would think we would have to get multiple cold fronts to go by with the right timing for it to happen again. We have 2 going through us right now and its supposed to get into the low 30's in a day or two. Probably not cold for you guys, but thats pretty cold for us warm blooded folk! Anyways keep up the great discussions, always good information to be read! Brad

01-14-2009, 11:56 AM	#17
jeffk Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,130 Thanks: 201 Thanked 421 Times in 239 Posts	How fast does ice thicken? Does anyone have a rough estimate of how fast the ice thickens? I know there are a bunch of factors, thickness of existing ice, snow cover, wind, currents, sun, clouds, etc. I'm not looking for an exact answer, just a rule of thumb. Something like, for example, at 10 degrees a bare (no snow cover) ice surface will add about 1 inch of ice a day. You could then guesstimate a 4 day cold snap with temps 10 degrees or lower could add a half foot of ice or so. I've poked around a bit and I found some rather complex formulas but no simple estimates.

01-15-2009, 12:08 PM	#20
tpabrad Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Tampa, FL Posts: 58 Thanks: 5 Thanked 3 Times in 3 Posts	Were feeling it too Second cold front is passing over us today and we have a freeze warning in effect for tonight (ok stop laughing ). Freeze warnings are pretty rare this far south. We maybe get it once a season. So no ice melting weather today

01-11-2009, 02:49 PM	#3
This'nThat Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 534 Thanks: 19 Thanked 134 Times in 61 Posts	The Mt Washington staff said this morning that their current "warm" spell (low teens for highs; zero for lows) will come to an abrupt end mid-week. So yes, they will also be affected.

01-11-2009, 06:51 PM	#4
MAXUM Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Kuna ID Posts: 2,755 Thanks: 246 Thanked 1,942 Times in 802 Posts	Thank goodness for "global warming", sounds like we are in for some downright balmy weather! So I'm really curious as to why during the winter time we tend to be affected by storms and weather that originate in Canada or Alaska (as in this case) where not so much in the summer time? I know much of that has to do with the jet stream(s), but I never did get why thier placement and flow seems to different between summer and winter. Or is my observation completely wrong?

01-12-2009, 07:40 AM	#5
SAMIAM Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Moultonborough Posts: 2,836 Thanks: 326 Thanked 1,626 Times in 562 Posts	Don't mean to get political,but in case you haven't noticed,global warming is nothing but a hoax,designed to make you feel happy about paying "carbon" taxes on everything that uses fuel.....shhhhhhhhh...Don will probably toss this if he see's it.

01-12-2009, 08:25 AM	#6
Webbsatwinni Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Lebanon Ct and Rattlesnake Island Since 2007 Posts: 610 Thanks: 180 Thanked 137 Times in 72 Posts	Will the colder temperatures impact on the ice growth be slowed by the amount of snow that fell over the weekend?

01-12-2009, 01:26 PM	#7
jeffk Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,130 Thanks: 201 Thanked 421 Times in 239 Posts	There is some insulating effect. A couple of bits: Ten inches of fresh snow with a density of 0.07 inches, seven percent water, is approximately equal to a six-inch-layer of fiberglass insulation with an insulation R-value of R-18. Snow has an R-1 value per inch. Obviously the fluff factor has a significant effect on the insulating value. However, with temps dropping overnight to -10 and day temps struggling to get to 10 I'm sure there will be good ice buildup.

01-13-2009, 03:09 PM	#9
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	The simplest reason for Canadian weather in the winter and Gulf of Mexico weather in summer is the angle of the sun. Cold air is nature's aggressor, like a football player. It lives north of us. In the winter, the sun completely disappears from up there, which is like feeding vitamins and protien supplements to the football player. It starts barging everything out of its way and claiming lots of territory. When the sun gets higher in the sky, it takes away the vitamins from the football player, who then must remain on the sidelines. When that happens, the opposing team of geeks (warm air) can take the field and win, because the cold air is on the bench. How cold the air gets in any given winter depends on a lot of things. But the whole reason our weather comes from the north in winter is because the cold air builds to a point where it starts spilling. It's heavy stuff... like water. Warm air is lightweight. All through this past summer, however, the cold fronts remained active. That is why we had so much severe weather. Severe weather is caused by cold fronts barging warm moist air out of the way. Our weather actually does come from the south a good deal in winter, too. That's what gives us snowstorms. The north is very, very dry. In order to have snow you need moisture. We get snowstorms when the southern moisture comes at us while there's northern cold in place. The best snowstorms happen when the southbound cold makes it as far south as the Georgia coast and meets warm moist air on a northbound course, forming a snowstorm that also takes that course. Regarding Mount Washington, they aren't high enough to get their own weather that's independent of the rest of New England. They get their own version of what's happening in the rest of New England. When it's windy and cold in all of New England, they will be colder by far. And a lot windier. When it's clear/calm/cold, and the valleys are getting down to -35, the summit might be at zero... warmer... because in calm conditions with clear skies (no blanket of cloud to hold the heat in) the cold air pools down into the valleys (as water would) and the day's heat rises toward the stars. When the White Mountains are having a big storm, the summit of Mt. Washington will have the biggest storm... but since snow is a low-level phenomenon (and lakes region snow doesn't always show up on Gray ME's radar as a result) it is not uncommon for Mt. Washington to break into the clear (with "undercast") while the lower summits are still in the snow. Snowstorms often do that when they're departing... you'll start seeing moonlight--meaning all the upper level clouds are gone--but it'll keep snowing another inch or two and it probably won't show up on radar, either. The activity might be confined between the ground and 5,000 feet. The radar beam from Gray ME is angled up from its origin so as to reduce the amount of "ground clutter" they pick up, and so it passes over the lakes region at about 9,000 feet. That's just fine for summertime severe weather, when you have rain & hail columns 45,000 feet tall. When "the unseen snow" happens, you could head over to Laconia Airport and take a plane up "above the deck", maybe 6,000 feet, to get some great pics of the storm's remnants below. To the north, you'd probably see Mount Washington's summit cone sticking up above the deck, too. The best way to understand weather is to "think in 3D." The biggest challenge for most people is that air flows in ways that are similar to water, but we can SEE water. So everyone understands rivers and lakes better than the atmosphere. Take turbulence, for example. Waves in the sky, similar to waves on the lake. Once people get that analogy, weather tends to "click" a lot better for them. As for the rest of this week, I think we're going to be hearing a lot of cracking and booming coming from the lake ice. It's going to be growing. Once we get some wind to blow off some of the powdery snow on the ice, combined with very dry air to help evaporate some of it, there won't be as much snowy insulation on top of the ice. I don't think Friday's daytime temps around here will get above zero.

01-13-2009, 03:13 PM	#10
SAMIAM Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Moultonborough Posts: 2,836 Thanks: 326 Thanked 1,626 Times in 562 Posts	OK.....I'm ready for a showdown here. RES2B has called for a major thaw on the last 10 days of January. CANISLUPUSARCTOS has not weighed in.Whatta ya' say Canis,do you agree?.....also how about a prediction for early feb.

01-13-2009, 03:40 PM	#11
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	I don't trust models that long-range. They keep messing up. Either last year or the year before, I watched all those long-range forecasts repeatedly say "above normal temps" and winter kept coming, and coming, and coming... finally they gave up and started calling for more of the same. That's what it looked like, anyway! I learned a healthy distrust of those predictions from that. This winter I do favor cold over warm. That doesn't mean warm can't beat the odds and make R2B right in his prediction for a few days (it might be a delayed January thaw he's seeing on the horizon), but I think the odds are in favor of cold until further notice because there are worldwide climate drivers (including the solar cycle) that have been turning earth's themostat down lately. The Climate Prediction Center puts odds in favor of below-normal temps thru January 27 (that's as far out as they go) for most of the northern half of the US. Their long-range forecasts also change by the day sometimes... one day they're calling for warmer than normal week ahead, and then they change it the next day. I know girls who change their minds less often than the CPC does.

01-13-2009, 04:30 PM	#12
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,352 Thanks: 987 Thanked 310 Times in 161 Posts	At this point, I do not see the thaw coming in for the last ten days in January. This is a change to what I was predicting. I intended to look at this again tomorrow and if things were still not changing I would post that I was wrong with the forecast. Now that Samiam has started to rock-the-boat (in a nice way I must add), I need to come out and admit defeat. In technical speak, the EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) is much more negative than I had expected. This is keeping a deep trough in place off Hawaii that is controlling the flow up and over the North Pole. This is moving the very cold air from the pole into Canada and, with little modification; it is continuing to move that polar air mass toward us. Because this trough has been in place for so long and is so deep, the air we are seeing is getting colder and colder. It is also moving these clipper systems near us, providing light snowfalls in the lakes region every few days. This trough will break down and/or move sometime soon. I had expected this to be happening now, reducing the cold flow after this coming weekend and replacing it with a warm flow in our area in a week or so. But, this has not yet happened and the trough seems to be holding. Once this cold spell is over, I expect a decent thaw, but this is more likely a February event than a January event as it looks right now. It could also start off with a decent storm as the air masses clash near us. If the storm goes west of us, we would get rain, east and it is snow. I do not use models for longer range forecasts as they are not really meant for that. Teleconnections are used for long range, but they obviously do not work all the time. The front that will be coming through late tonight means busibess and we will see very cold weather the next few days along with some wind to drive down the wind-chill. For now, I admit I was wrong about the January thaw. I hope to get better at this with age! R2B

01-13-2009, 05:43 PM	#13
BoulderBronco Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 121 Thanks: 0 Thanked 3 Times in 3 Posts	Don't feel bad about being "wrong." You can't be expected to predict the weather 2-4 weeks out. Hell the fancy meterologists with all their fancy equipment can't predict the weather over a two day period nevermind 4 weeks. Now what would be perfect if this cold held on for another 2-3 weeks creating a solid 20" of ice throughout the lake. Then come derby weekend we get a "heat wave" of 40-50* temps. Remember a few years ago (2005 I think.) It was unreal. Good, not great, ice and unbelieveable weather. I was out there in my T-shirt. I almolst convinced the girlfriend to sport her Bikini. Lets do that again!

01-14-2009, 09:00 AM	#16
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	R2B is right in saying this will likely flop over to a warm spell. That's what happens. All winter long, the cold air tends to punch down from Canada on one side of the country or another. In response, the warm air bounces up where the cold air isn't punching down. When the western US gets the bitter cold punching down from Canada, the southern warm air reacts by bouncing up, and so we get warmth like what we had between Christmas and New Years. Then it all flopped, with the cold air moving east and barging the warmth out of its way, and here we are. He also brings up a good point - storms are great agents of change in weather patterns. The stronger the storm, the more likely it is that the pattern will be different after it passes. The best example I've seen recently was the historic nor'easter of April 15-17, 2007. That one started off as snow, changed to rain, cleared a foot of clear ice from the lake with 45 mph sustained winds, lots of damage, but by the time it was over the lake was almost at iceout, and the weather pattern was favorable for warm air to move in. A week later, we were hitting 80 and iceout was declared. No major pattern change for at least the next several days, however. This is dangerous cold for the entire area. For the rest of the week, we will not likely see 10 degrees again until maybe Saturday, perhaps Sunday. On Black Cat Island we had snow showers while the front passed, then the wind picked up to 30 mph in the predawn hours, bringing in the cold. Temps since sunrise have been in the single numbers and continue to fall. An hour ago we were at 7 degrees... now we are 4 degrees. This trend will continue. Tomorrow will have a high of about 5. Tomorrow night will be the coldest night in at least 2 years for much of the area... I would not be surprised to see a reading of 20 below zero (actual air temp) somewhere in the lakes region on Friday morning. Friday's high will probably not reach zero. I'll go for a high of 2 below zero on Friday, but I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up being colder. Friday and Saturday nights will be "warmer" but still below zero. Doesn't look like we start to see moderation in the cold air until early next week. As R2B stated, it may take a storm to change the pattern.

01-15-2009, 11:09 AM	#19
SAMIAM Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Moultonborough Posts: 2,836 Thanks: 326 Thanked 1,626 Times in 562 Posts	Brad is the only smart one among us......he's watching all this as the sun melts the ice cubes in his margarita.Hopefully,we can sneak down to Ft Myers sometime this year.

01-15-2009, 01:53 PM	#22
BoulderBronco Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 121 Thanks: 0 Thanked 3 Times in 3 Posts	Whats the deal with the temp today? It says 14* on this site, 13* on weather.com for Meredith, yet weather.com says there is a forecast high today of 7. Is it really 13 up there now or is the weather channel just failing at updating their forecasts?

01-15-2009, 02:04 PM	#23
hilltopper Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Meredith Posts: 716 Thanks: 25 Thanked 105 Times in 66 Posts	Almost 13 degrees at Black Cat Island. http://www.blackcatnh.com/weather/

01-16-2009, 07:42 AM	#25
fatlazyless Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 8,526 Blog Entries: 1 Thanks: 295 Thanked 957 Times in 698 Posts	The Varney Point weather cam says the temp is -11.6 now at 7:30 am, and the coldest was -11.9 at 7:11 am. Here in Waterville Valley, it is -22 on my mercury thermometer, at 7:33, altitude 1500', on the floor of the valley....maybe 25 miles north of Winnipesaukee ...perfectly clear skies, with the morning sun. ...talk about cold! ...and talk about an ice making factory...at -11 degrees, how much lake ice is formed in one night....about three or four inches from what I've seen? __________________ ... down and out, liv'n that Walmart side of the lake!

01-16-2009, 10:54 AM	#26
kjbathe Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 281 Thanks: 3 Thanked 21 Times in 11 Posts	What's the Record High and Low? I was looking online to find the record high and low for Concord (or Laconia). Not the record high or low by day, but the all-time high and all-time low, just to see how we compare. Does anyone have that or know where I could go online to find it?

01-16-2009, 12:15 PM	#28
chipj29 Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Bow Posts: 1,874 Thanks: 521 Thanked 308 Times in 162 Posts	Got down to -24 at my house in Bow. That was at around 7 this morning. __________________ Getting ready for winter!

01-16-2009, 12:43 PM	#29
kjbathe Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 281 Thanks: 3 Thanked 21 Times in 11 Posts	All Time High / Low For Laconia... * The highest recorded temperature was 100°F in 1987. * The lowest recorded temperature was -24°F in 1994.

01-16-2009, 02:21 PM	#30
SIKSUKR Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 5,075 Thanks: 215 Thanked 903 Times in 509 Posts	Only 14 below at my house in Bedford.How about Whitefield and Berlin at minus 37?Yikes.The lowest,Fort Kent Maine at 52 below.Wow!It's a heatwave here next to those places. __________________ SIKSUKR

01-16-2009, 03:58 PM	#31
trfour Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: The Lakes, Central NH. and Dallas/Fort Worth TX. Posts: 3,694 Blog Entries: 3 Thanks: 3,069 Thanked 472 Times in 236 Posts	How Cold Is It!! Temps and more; http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28673142 PS, it is so cold.... that people are throwing shoes at Al Gore!! __________________ *trfour* Always Remember, The Best Safety Device In The Boat, or on a PWC Snowmobile etc., Is YOU! Safe sledding tips and much more; http://www.snowmobile.org/snowmobiling-safety.html Last edited by trfour; 01-17-2009 at 07:59 AM. Reason: a ps....