Severe Weather Tues June 10?

CanisLupusArctos · 06-09-2008, 09:37 AM

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of New England, including all of Vermont and New Hampshire, in a risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow (Tuesday.)

While our hot and humid weather continues, a cold front will be moving south and east into New England tomorrow. Along and ahead of it, thunderstorms will develop in the morning in western NY state and will move east during the day. They will reach our area during the heat of the day (which will reach low 90s.)

This hot and humid air will rise rapidly as the cold air starts to nose underneath it and lift it. The rising action will form thunderstorms, and several of them may become severe.

A severe thunderstorm is defined as having damaging wind and/or damaging hail.

The greatest threat is in the CT river valley (as always, it seems) where the storms will most likely roll through in mid-afternoon. At that time we will probably notice the sky getting darker along the lake's western shores.

Severe weather is very localized and very spontaneous in nature, so therefore tomorrow's forecasts will have a much better handle on it. This is just early warning.

In the wake of the cold front, we will lose the humidity and dry out again (just in time for pine pollen, yayyyyy.) Temps will be 10 degrees cooler. Long range GFS-MRF looks like it's calling for the weather to remain 80/dry through the weekend, and then an omega block for bike week. We'll see. After last winter I wasn't trusting the GFS-MRF much but it did seem to call this heat wave pretty well, a week in advance. Bike week weather is probably a whole new thread.

First thing's first, however... potentially damaging thunderstorms tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. There is also a threat today in Vermont, and it's possible that one or two of those storms may stray this way later on today.

SPC's technical discussion for tomorrow follows.

...NERN STATES...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE BASE OF THE NRN PLAINS UPR LOW WILL
TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST BY EARLY TUESDAY...THEN BRUSH THE
NERN STATES TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
LIKEWISE PROGRESS EWD INTO NY AND THE CNTRL APLCNS BY EARLY TUE
AFTN...THEN OFF THE COAST BY 12Z WED. AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC
FRONT...A LEE-TROUGH WILL EXIST FROM VA NWD INTO ERN NY.

A BAND OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY EXIST INVOF THE COLD FRONT FROM ONTARIO
SWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY AT 12Z TUESDAY. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE DAY WITH MLCAPES OF
2000-3000 J/KG. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WEAKER INHIBITION OVER THE
OH VLY BY LATE MORNING AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD WITH THE
UPR TROUGH TRANSLATE NEWD. THESE STORMS WILL PROGRESS EWD DURING
PEAK HEATING AND WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR
THE LEE-TROUGH LATE IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS WILL TEND TO BE RELEGATED TO
THE OH VLY NEWD INTO NY AND CNTRL/NRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE ORGANIZED
STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME...QUICK TRANSITIONS INTO BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS WILL BE FAVORED WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS/HAIL...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY HOT BOUNDARY LAYER. ATTM...IT APPEARS BEST
JUXTAPOSITION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR FROM CNTRL/ERN PA NWD INTO CNTRL/ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. TSTMS WILL PROGRESS EWD TOWARD THE COAST AFTER
DARK WITH A LIKELY RAPID DIMINISHING TREND.

06-09-2008, 09:37 AM	#1
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	Severe Weather Tues June 10? NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of New England, including all of Vermont and New Hampshire, in a risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow (Tuesday.) While our hot and humid weather continues, a cold front will be moving south and east into New England tomorrow. Along and ahead of it, thunderstorms will develop in the morning in western NY state and will move east during the day. They will reach our area during the heat of the day (which will reach low 90s.) This hot and humid air will rise rapidly as the cold air starts to nose underneath it and lift it. The rising action will form thunderstorms, and several of them may become severe. A severe thunderstorm is defined as having damaging wind and/or damaging hail. The greatest threat is in the CT river valley (as always, it seems) where the storms will most likely roll through in mid-afternoon. At that time we will probably notice the sky getting darker along the lake's western shores. Severe weather is very localized and very spontaneous in nature, so therefore tomorrow's forecasts will have a much better handle on it. This is just early warning. In the wake of the cold front, we will lose the humidity and dry out again (just in time for pine pollen, yayyyyy.) Temps will be 10 degrees cooler. Long range GFS-MRF looks like it's calling for the weather to remain 80/dry through the weekend, and then an omega block for bike week. We'll see. After last winter I wasn't trusting the GFS-MRF much but it did seem to call this heat wave pretty well, a week in advance. Bike week weather is probably a whole new thread. First thing's first, however... potentially damaging thunderstorms tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. There is also a threat today in Vermont, and it's possible that one or two of those storms may stray this way later on today. SPC's technical discussion for tomorrow follows. ...NERN STATES... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE BASE OF THE NRN PLAINS UPR LOW WILL TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST BY EARLY TUESDAY...THEN BRUSH THE NERN STATES TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL LIKEWISE PROGRESS EWD INTO NY AND THE CNTRL APLCNS BY EARLY TUE AFTN...THEN OFF THE COAST BY 12Z WED. AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT...A LEE-TROUGH WILL EXIST FROM VA NWD INTO ERN NY. A BAND OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY EXIST INVOF THE COLD FRONT FROM ONTARIO SWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY AT 12Z TUESDAY. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE DAY WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WEAKER INHIBITION OVER THE OH VLY BY LATE MORNING AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD WITH THE UPR TROUGH TRANSLATE NEWD. THESE STORMS WILL PROGRESS EWD DURING PEAK HEATING AND WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE LEE-TROUGH LATE IN THE AFTN/EVENING. STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS WILL TEND TO BE RELEGATED TO THE OH VLY NEWD INTO NY AND CNTRL/NRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME...QUICK TRANSITIONS INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE FAVORED WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS/HAIL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY HOT BOUNDARY LAYER. ATTM...IT APPEARS BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR FROM CNTRL/ERN PA NWD INTO CNTRL/ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. TSTMS WILL PROGRESS EWD TOWARD THE COAST AFTER DARK WITH A LIKELY RAPID DIMINISHING TREND.