Tropical Weather July 22nd???

Resident 2B · 07-17-2008, 10:49 PM

I have been watching the increased spin of what is likely to become a tropical cyclone off the northeast Florida coast for most of this afternoon and evening. It looks to me that this will become a TD tomorrow and quickly become a TS in 24 hours. The waters are warm and the sheer looks low in the area off the SE US coast, so this could kick up.

Looking at the steering currents through early next week, whatever develops down there should be close to the NC coast this weekend and then could be on our doorstep next Tuesday or Wednesday. It looks like a trough will catch it and bring it NNE along the coast.

It is hard, well almost impossible, to predict tropical systems especially when they have not yet formed, so I do not consider this a forecast at this time, but rather a heads-up for what might happen.

Since I have a house full of company next week, I would not be surprised if we get a stormy day during the mid-week related to this system. I will be out buying a jig-saw puzzle or two tomorrow just in case!

Time will tell!

R2B

Pepper · 07-18-2008, 08:45 AM

R2B - thanks for the "heads-up" on this. Tuesday is an important day for me to be watching the weather, as myself and 21 other volunteers from the Lowe's store where I work will be working outdoors. We'll be performing some renovations and adding some new features to enhance a the facilities at a local non-profit public service facility near the store. Any updates you can provide as that day draws near - it'll help us determine whether or not we need rain gear, etc. Truly I trust the forecasts here much more than ANY of the ones broadcast through networks!

CanisLupusArctos · 07-18-2008, 09:38 AM

Our saving grace from tropical systems in New England at this time of year is colder ocean water. That's not saying a big tropical hit can't happen, but our ocean water needs all summer to reach its max for the year. Until that happens, the cooler waters usually weaken tropical systems that try to venture this far north.

What we would most likely see from a tropical system at this time of year is flooding downpours and possible severe weather. The remnants of Bonnie (2004) produced a tornado that started around Sanbornton if I remember correctly, buzzed Meredith a little and got caught on video as a waterspout over Meredith Bay.

Again, this doesn't mean a full-fledged hurricane can't happen here right now. It's just a lot less likely than it will be later next month through Sept. and Oct. In the meantime, remnants are the most likely scenario, but keep in mind they can sometimes produce historic floods.

In New England tropical systems have also been known to collide and combine with other weather systems ("The Perfect Storm") to form a totally new animal.

Resident 2B · 07-18-2008, 10:44 AM

CLA,

I do not think we will be getting a full-fledged hurricane, but it is looking like we could be getting something that has or had tropical blood-lines during the mid-week.

I think the area which is now technically a tropical wave will grow to a TD later today and a TS by Saturday evening or Sunday morning off Cape Hatteras.

You are correct about water temps and hurricanes hitting NE. They are rare before mid to late August because they get killed by the cooler water. I do not think this system has enough time to fully develop into a cat 2 or 3, so it will lose steam quickly when it encounters cooler water. However, the water is very warm for this time of the year right up to the waters south of Long Island, NY.

Diamond Shoals off Cape Hatteras/Cape Lookout has water at 84.4 degrees, bouy 44004 which should be located 200 miles east of Cape May, NJ has escaped it's mooring but is now located at 25N 65W has water at 79.7 and bouy 44017 23 miles south of Montauk point, LI, NY has water at 76.3 degrees. All are from this morning's bouy report. This is very warm water for this time of the year, water like this is usually found in mid-August.

Steering currents will be SSW to NNE vectoring more to NE early next week. These currents should keep the system moving and off shore until it crosses the Long Island/Southern NE coast, possibly as a TS, but at least a tropically inspired, solid rain storm Monday night or Tuesday.

That is how I see it right now.

The warm water will make it interesting around here for the next ten weeks, tropically speaking.

Best regards,

R2B

CanisLupusArctos · 07-18-2008, 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

Diamond Shoals off Cape Hatteras/Cape Lookout has water at 84.4 degrees, bouy 44004 which should be located 200 miles east of Cape May, NJ has escaped it's mooring but is now located at 25N 65W has water at 79.7 and bouy 44017 23 miles south of Montauk point, LI, NY has water at 76.3 degrees. All are from this morning's bouy report. This is very warm water for this time of the year, water like this is usually found in mid-August..

The warm water will make it interesting around here for the next ten weeks, tropically speaking.

Best regards,

R2B

Oooh, cool!

I wasn't in dispute of your opinion, just adding what typically happens... but I haven't gotten into my annual habit of checking buoy reports and water temps - guess one could say I was in a state of complacency. My eyes have been fixated to our northwest for more of what knocked out some of my equipment on June 22, (and tore a screen off the house on July 2) but from what you've said it sounds like the south-looking vigil must begin early this year in New England. Given severe threat today and possibly daily for the next few days, we'll have a lot to look out for.

Your sea-temp observation starts to look even more interesting when we factor in the cold air to our north that's been touching off all the severe weather lately. A couple days ago TWC announced the unusually far south location of the polar jet stream for this time of year. New England is where the ocean & polar jet stream features so often like to mingle. Mix some tropical activity with cool Canada dry over the New England coast and we've got ourselves a party.

Resident 2B · 07-18-2008, 12:20 PM

CLA,

I never though for a second that you were in dispute of any of my thinking.

You have raised weather awareness and knowledge on this forum to a level that is outstanding. It was mainly your work that got us the Weather Forum. For these two reasons, I am totally thankful, as I know many other are as well.

Let's see what the next few days bring. It could be interesting or it could be nothing.

I cannot believe the amount of warm water to our south for this time of the year, so to me, it looks like an early and prolonged tropical season.

Your point regarding jet merging points is right on! With a cooler than normal polar and a warm and juicy tropical merging or in contention near us, we need to look in both directions. It is all about contrasting air masses this time of the year.

Great weather potential, got to love it!!!

R2B

meteotrade · 07-18-2008, 01:17 PM

This "tropical" low should have virtually no impact on our weather... it may track over Cape Cod as a worst case scenario, but any associated rain/wind would be to the east of the low. Of much greater significance is the strong cold front which will move through late Sunday and Monday with widespread showers and t-storms... some severe. Enjoy!

07-17-2008, 10:49 PM	#1
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,352 Thanks: 987 Thanked 310 Times in 161 Posts	Tropical Weather July 22nd??? I have been watching the increased spin of what is likely to become a tropical cyclone off the northeast Florida coast for most of this afternoon and evening. It looks to me that this will become a TD tomorrow and quickly become a TS in 24 hours. The waters are warm and the sheer looks low in the area off the SE US coast, so this could kick up. Looking at the steering currents through early next week, whatever develops down there should be close to the NC coast this weekend and then could be on our doorstep next Tuesday or Wednesday. It looks like a trough will catch it and bring it NNE along the coast. It is hard, well almost impossible, to predict tropical systems especially when they have not yet formed, so I do not consider this a forecast at this time, but rather a heads-up for what might happen. Since I have a house full of company next week, I would not be surprised if we get a stormy day during the mid-week related to this system. I will be out buying a jig-saw puzzle or two tomorrow just in case! Time will tell! R2B

07-18-2008, 08:45 AM	#2
Pepper Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Laconia, NH Posts: 1,284 Thanks: 409 Thanked 155 Times in 40 Posts	mucklucks and ponchos? R2B - thanks for the "heads-up" on this. Tuesday is an important day for me to be watching the weather, as myself and 21 other volunteers from the Lowe's store where I work will be working outdoors. We'll be performing some renovations and adding some new features to enhance a the facilities at a local non-profit public service facility near the store. Any updates you can provide as that day draws near - it'll help us determine whether or not we need rain gear, etc. Truly I trust the forecasts here much more than ANY of the ones broadcast through networks! __________________ Never waste time lamenting what was. Simply celebrate what is!

07-18-2008, 09:38 AM	#3
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	colder waters Our saving grace from tropical systems in New England at this time of year is colder ocean water. That's not saying a big tropical hit can't happen, but our ocean water needs all summer to reach its max for the year. Until that happens, the cooler waters usually weaken tropical systems that try to venture this far north. What we would most likely see from a tropical system at this time of year is flooding downpours and possible severe weather. The remnants of Bonnie (2004) produced a tornado that started around Sanbornton if I remember correctly, buzzed Meredith a little and got caught on video as a waterspout over Meredith Bay. Again, this doesn't mean a full-fledged hurricane can't happen here right now. It's just a lot less likely than it will be later next month through Sept. and Oct. In the meantime, remnants are the most likely scenario, but keep in mind they can sometimes produce historic floods. In New England tropical systems have also been known to collide and combine with other weather systems ("The Perfect Storm") to form a totally new animal.

07-18-2008, 10:44 AM	#4
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,352 Thanks: 987 Thanked 310 Times in 161 Posts	Warmer than normal water CLA, I do not think we will be getting a full-fledged hurricane, but it is looking like we could be getting something that has or had tropical blood-lines during the mid-week. I think the area which is now technically a tropical wave will grow to a TD later today and a TS by Saturday evening or Sunday morning off Cape Hatteras. You are correct about water temps and hurricanes hitting NE. They are rare before mid to late August because they get killed by the cooler water. I do not think this system has enough time to fully develop into a cat 2 or 3, so it will lose steam quickly when it encounters cooler water. However, the water is very warm for this time of the year right up to the waters south of Long Island, NY. Diamond Shoals off Cape Hatteras/Cape Lookout has water at 84.4 degrees, bouy 44004 which should be located 200 miles east of Cape May, NJ has escaped it's mooring but is now located at 25N 65W has water at 79.7 and bouy 44017 23 miles south of Montauk point, LI, NY has water at 76.3 degrees. All are from this morning's bouy report. This is very warm water for this time of the year, water like this is usually found in mid-August. Steering currents will be SSW to NNE vectoring more to NE early next week. These currents should keep the system moving and off shore until it crosses the Long Island/Southern NE coast, possibly as a TS, but at least a tropically inspired, solid rain storm Monday night or Tuesday. That is how I see it right now. The warm water will make it interesting around here for the next ten weeks, tropically speaking. Best regards, R2B

07-18-2008, 12:20 PM	#6
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,352 Thanks: 987 Thanked 310 Times in 161 Posts	CLA, I never though for a second that you were in dispute of any of my thinking. You have raised weather awareness and knowledge on this forum to a level that is outstanding. It was mainly your work that got us the Weather Forum. For these two reasons, I am totally thankful, as I know many other are as well. Let's see what the next few days bring. It could be interesting or it could be nothing. I cannot believe the amount of warm water to our south for this time of the year, so to me, it looks like an early and prolonged tropical season. Your point regarding jet merging points is right on! With a cooler than normal polar and a warm and juicy tropical merging or in contention near us, we need to look in both directions. It is all about contrasting air masses this time of the year. Great weather potential, got to love it!!! R2B

07-18-2008, 01:17 PM	#7
meteotrade Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Moultonboro Posts: 95 Thanks: 0 Thanked 16 Times in 6 Posts	This "tropical" low should have virtually no impact on our weather... it may track over Cape Cod as a worst case scenario, but any associated rain/wind would be to the east of the low. Of much greater significance is the strong cold front which will move through late Sunday and Monday with widespread showers and t-storms... some severe. Enjoy!