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Old 05-22-2013, 11:32 AM   #1
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Default Say it Ain't So - weather

just saw the latest forecast from weather.com and I do not want to believe it for Memorial Day weekend

Canis?
Resident?
anyone else?

what are your weather predictions for Friday through Monday, I do not trust national weather for our little slice of the world
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Old 05-22-2013, 01:28 PM   #2
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If it makes you feel any better, weather service predicted partly sunny today with a high of 78...it hasn't passed 59 and no sun as of this posting.
Hopefully they are wrong again this weekend.
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Old 05-22-2013, 04:18 PM   #3
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If it makes you feel any better, weather service predicted partly sunny today with a high of 78...it hasn't passed 59 and no sun as of this posting.
Hopefully they are wrong again this weekend.
Amazing just how far off they have been this week. I took a chance and was able to finish up a couple of exterior doors, windows and some trim. Got is in with hours before that big blob of rain hits us a little later.
I've been monitoring the weekend weather and it doesn't look very good at all at this point. But we are heading north to do some ATV riding so rain is a good thing, it keeps the dust down and makes for some good mud riding.
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Old 05-23-2013, 01:18 AM   #4
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Looks like a wet next four or five days.

I am not happy about this one bit. This is the first Memorial Day weekend I am off from my soccer coaching job/hobby in 19 years and I was looking forward to good weather at the lake. At least I will not be getting wet on a soccer field.

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Old 05-23-2013, 07:54 AM   #5
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Certainly for me it takes the sting out of working this whole holiday weekend.
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Old 05-23-2013, 08:06 AM   #6
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I'm seeing mixed reports. Sunday afternoon looks good as well as Monday. Saturday looks spotty.

Lets stay positive...

I have two boas in now and havent got to use them... need to launch the pwc, the kids ( young males) want to use it this weekend.

Welcome to New England, the weather changes every 5 minutes.
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Old 05-23-2013, 10:10 AM   #7
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I just spent 45 minutes looking at model output. The news is not good as things look to be slowing down meaning it looks like any clearing will be slower to come.

Today it is a front lifting northward and pulling very moist air up with it. Tomorrow has a cold front sweeping in from the NW setting off more showers. For Saturday and Sunday a low pressure area stalls near the 70/40 benchmark rotating moisture in from the ocean. Monday, the low will start to lift northeastward. This could cause some clearing, but just in time for the return trip home for those coming up for the weekend.

It should get warm today, but turn cooler tomorrow and staying cool until the sun reappears sometime on Monday.

I wish I had better news and I hope I am wrong with this forecast, but right now, my confidence is high with this bad weather forecast.

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Old 05-23-2013, 03:09 PM   #8
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I just spent 45 minutes looking at model output. The news is not good as things look to be slowing down meaning it looks like any clearing will be slower to come.
So are all the models saying pretty much the same thing? Or is it that nasty European one that I hated over the winter the only one suggesting the rain?
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Old 05-23-2013, 03:45 PM   #9
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This is s fairly simple situation and all the short-term models are fairly aligned.

There is a line of storms "training" all the way back to NYC about the impact the lakes region. I would not be surprised to see two inches of rain between 4PM and midnight in the area.

Not a happy weather guy right now.

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Old 05-23-2013, 04:51 PM   #10
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Default Hope we don't flood

The lake is a bit above full (504.33 ft) and with two inches possible, the dam is throttled back almost the whole way, at 244 CFS. We don't need the erosion that man-made floods bring. Hopefully the dam operator isn't sequestered.

Update: Saturday morning. Lake is up to 594.43 and the output is still low, reported at 246 CFS. The rain gauge may not be working.
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Old 05-23-2013, 06:27 PM   #11
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Pretty big winds from the North too. Saturday could be pretty exciting in places if you're on the water.

http://www.windalert.com/en-us/Searc...tForecastTable
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Old 05-23-2013, 06:53 PM   #12
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The moisture train has set up a bit south of the lake. I think it will back up to the lake a bit tonight. Not sure we will see the two inches of rain at this time.

Still a showery weekend until Monday.

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Old 05-24-2013, 09:40 AM   #13
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true statements across the board, but I am holding to that it will be over cast and might rain in your area but you should be able to get outside, might not be beach or boating weather, but will still be able to make it work!
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Old 05-24-2013, 10:52 AM   #14
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Quote:
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true statements across the board, but I am holding to that it will be over cast and might rain in your area but you should be able to get outside, might not be beach or boating weather, but will still be able to make it work!
Positive thinking AC..make the best out of it.
A rainy weekend on the lake is MUCH better than a warm sunny week at work!
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Old 05-24-2013, 02:26 PM   #15
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Saturday is looking the worst...and coooold.Sunday should have improving weather with possible sun late.Monday now looks mostly sunny and seasonable.
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Old 05-24-2013, 05:35 PM   #16
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Snow flurries as far south as Worcester county Saturday night into Sunday...no joke!
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Old 05-25-2013, 07:18 AM   #17
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Cold,raw and raining so welcome to Memorial Day weekend uggggggg
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Old 05-25-2013, 08:59 AM   #18
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.......any truth to the theory that the warm water fish in the lake like sunfish and smallmouth bass in the shallows will be likely to be feeding and easier to catch when it rains because the rain washes insects into the lake?
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Old 05-25-2013, 09:32 AM   #19
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Default Next Thursday and Friday 90 only in New England

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Old 05-25-2013, 12:40 PM   #20
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.......any truth to the theory that the warm water fish in the lake like sunfish and smallmouth bass in the shallows will be likely to be feeding and easier to catch when it rains because the rain washes insects into the lake?
FLL, the rain does affect how fish behave, but not because of the rain fall. It's the change in barometric pressure!!!

It isn't so much an issue of whether or not it's raining, but rather how the storm front lowers the barometric pressure. When the pressure drops nerves on their sides tell the fish two things. 1. The water is going to stir up making feeding easier BUT 2, eventually it could get too rough and they may not be eating for a while. This tells them to feed and eat more than usual to store in case the next meal is delayed. They will feed until it's too rough or the wind has cooled the top enough to send them deeper.

Right now the bass are bedding in the rocky shallows, they are at the end of pre-spawn with mandatory catch and release from May 15 to June 15.
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Old 05-26-2013, 02:08 PM   #21
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didn't cover plants last night and they all came thru ok -don't know about tonight given it maybe clear Will it be colder tonight? ie will there be frost
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Old 05-26-2013, 06:38 PM   #22
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didn't cover plants last night and they all came thru ok -don't know about tonight given it maybe clear Will it be colder tonight? ie will there be frost
NWS has issued a frost warning for your area.
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Old 05-26-2013, 08:25 PM   #23
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Thanks I just saw the same so will cover the tomatoes
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Old 05-27-2013, 05:56 PM   #24
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Quote:
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FLL, the rain does affect how fish behave, but not because of the rain fall. It's the change in barometric pressure!!!

It isn't so much an issue of whether or not it's raining, but rather how the storm front lowers the barometric pressure. When the pressure drops nerves on their sides tell the fish two things. 1. The water is going to stir up making feeding easier BUT 2, eventually it could get too rough and they may not be eating for a while. This tells them to feed and eat more than usual to store in case the next meal is delayed. They will feed until it's too rough or the wind has cooled the top enough to send them deeper.

Right now the bass are bedding in the rocky shallows, they are at the end of pre-spawn with mandatory catch and release from May 15 to June 15.
Agree about the fishing before a low pressure system. I've always noticed the same type of activity with insects, especially mosquitoes and black flies. When a low system approaches there is an increase of their annoying behavior.
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Old 05-27-2013, 07:30 PM   #25
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Today was pretty choppy on the lake and we ended up driving around the lake in the car instead going out in the boat.
Around noon we had lunch in Gilford at Lincoln Park and saw a boat towing a raft with a double jet ski trailer (yup a road trailer) tied on top of it. It did not look too smart an idea given how choppy the lake was. Unfortunately I could not get a picture of it.
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Old 05-28-2013, 06:29 AM   #26
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Today was pretty choppy on the lake and we ended up driving around the lake in the car instead going out in the boat.
Around noon we had lunch in Gilford at Lincoln Park and saw a boat towing a raft with a double jet ski trailer (yup a road trailer) tied on top of it. It did not look too smart an idea given how choppy the lake was. Unfortunately I could not get a picture of it.
We got a new fire pit built, first lined with bricks then built up using rocks. Got about 1/2-3/4 cord of wood cut split and stacked, some ATV riding in on Sunday then a crap load of yard work done yesterday before our return trip.
We did see snow mixed in with the rain while we were out getting firewood.
IMHO we have been spoiled for years. I can remember when my boys were younger, we would camp just north of Pittsburg and see snow come down on more then one Memorial weekend.
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