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Old 04-19-2011, 11:11 AM   #1
CanisLupusArctos
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Default Spring 2011 Flood Discussion

Discuss lake-flood issues for spring 2011 here.

Iceout has been declared April 19 -- about as average as iceout-date gets. Now we turn our attention to the water level. Lake Winnipesaukee is about 3 inches above-full, and is rising.

We are expecting more rain, possibly heavy, on Wednesday and Saturday. Wind is a good bet with these systems. Waves will add to the flooding effect. If the lake is 6 inches above full -- which it easily could be in one week -- then 1-foot waves (common to the lake) will add 12 inches to the water's reach. Waves of 1.5 feet in height are also common on this lake. Those would make the water able to reach 2 feet *directly* above its 'full' level (i.e., a vertical shore wall). The water would travel much farther up a sloped shoreline.

Nationwide, a winter-like weather pattern continues. Cold air masses are moving out of Canada into the Rockies and plains where they are interacting with comparatively warmer air to create snowstorms. The storms then push lines of severe weather ahead of themselves as the spin of the earth deviates their southward movement toward the east. Finally, they find us here in the lakes region, giving us the kind of rain & wind storms common to early December -- powerful winter-style storms tracking to our west, giving us "the rainy side" while the Great Lakes get the snowy side.

Until this pattern breaks, we may expect more of the same, resulting in more lake level rise.
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Old 04-19-2011, 12:04 PM   #2
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I will take a repeat of last years spring / summer season please

Happy Ice Out Everyone !
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Old 04-19-2011, 12:58 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos View Post
Discuss lake-flood issues for spring 2011 here.

Iceout has been declared April 19 -- about as average as iceout-date gets. Now we turn our attention to the water level. Lake Winnipesaukee is about 3 inches above-full, and is rising.

We are expecting more rain, possibly heavy, on Wednesday and Saturday. Wind is a good bet with these systems. Waves will add to the flooding effect. If the lake is 6 inches above full -- which it easily could be in one week -- then 1-foot waves (common to the lake) will add 12 inches to the water's reach. Waves of 1.5 feet in height are also common on this lake. Those would make the water able to reach 2 feet *directly* above its 'full' level (i.e., a vertical shore wall). The water would travel much farther up a sloped shoreline.

Nationwide, a winter-like weather pattern continues. Cold air masses are moving out of Canada into the Rockies and plains where they are interacting with comparatively warmer air to create snowstorms. The storms then push lines of severe weather ahead of themselves as the spin of the earth deviates their southward movement toward the east. Finally, they find us here in the lakes region, giving us the kind of rain & wind storms common to early December -- powerful winter-style storms tracking to our west, giving us "the rainy side" while the Great Lakes get the snowy side.

Until this pattern breaks, we may expect more of the same, resulting in more lake level rise.
Any hint yet of when this pattern might change? Just hopin'!
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Old 04-24-2011, 02:23 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos View Post
Lake Winnipesaukee is about 3 inches above-full, and is rising.

Until this pattern breaks, we may expect more of the same, resulting in more lake level rise.
On March 21, I posted a warning that we were well outside the standard deviation for that time of year (standard deviation = means that this happens only once or twice every decade). Well, one month later, and we're again outside the standard deviation, and close to record terrority for this date. So Canis is correct -- this bears watching. A lot of rain and docks could be floating away.
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Old 04-27-2011, 12:15 PM   #5
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Another 1/2 inch of rain is predicted for tomorrow.
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