Ice in 2021 ?

[BoatHouse]

Does anyone know how this year compares to historical "Ice In" ?

We haven't had significant cold since a few days in December and the Christmas warmth/rain washed away ice that formed.

It looks like the fringe bays, coves and harbors are filling in slowly(Alton, Melvin, Center Harbor) and there does not look like a significant warm up in the next 10 - 15 days.

Will temps in the teens/twentys at night and low 30's in the day be enough to build significant ice? I supposed it depends on the wind along with the temps?

[8gv]

Ice?

I'm pretty sure 2021 will not be participating.

I do see people fishing on Lilly Pond in Gilford.

How thick is the ice under that thin layer of snow?

[Mink Islander]

Originally Posted by BoatHouse

Does anyone know how this year compares to historical "Ice In" ?

We haven't had significant cold since a few days in December and the Christmas warmth/rain washed away ice that formed.

It looks like the fringe bays, coves and harbors are filling in slowly(Alton, Melvin, Center Harbor) and there does not look like a significant warm up in the next 10 - 15 days.

Will temps in the teens/twentys at night and low 30's in the day be enough to build significant ice? I supposed it depends on the wind along with the temps?

We’re certainly well behind a “normal” year at this point. Open water as far as my webcam can see looking north from Mink Island. In a typical year, it’s already skimmed over and making ice. Water temps are slowly dropping into the usual strike zone of 34/35 degrees for ice to form on the surface. But we need colder weather than we see in the forecasts to come soon to have a lot of hope for safe ice beyond the bays as you mentioned by the time we get to the fishing derby in Feb. fingers crossed.

[fatlazyless]

From www.svend.com/lake-winnipesaukee-ice-in/ it says:

As seen from a house on the broads in Gilford on Lake Winnipesaukee, ice-in dates;

2021 ............... time will tell?

2020 ............... no info

2019 ............... January 13

2018 ............... January 3

2017 ............... February 9

2016 ............... February 9

2015 ............... January 13

2014 & older .... no info

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by BoatHouse

Will temps in the teens/twentys at night and low 30's in the day be enough to build significant ice? I supposed it depends on the wind along with the temps?

I don't expect to see much in the broads any time soon. There is no extremely cold days coming up. We would need a good cold snap that runs for a few days to a week straight to really start to lock things up, preferably with no wind.

I don't ice fish so it doesn't matter to me. Later ice in means and earlier ice out and I am good with that.

[Descant]

Originally Posted by codeman671

I don't expect to see much in the broads any time soon. There is no extremely cold days coming up. We would need a good cold snap that runs for a few days to a week straight to really start to lock things up, preferably with no wind.

I don't ice fish so it doesn't matter to me. Later ice in means and earlier ice out and I am good with that.

So, for the first time in 60 years, we did major repairs/replacement of our docks, facing the Broads. For the first time, we got an ice-eater. Now you tell me I don't need any of that because the Broads won't freeze? Good thing we took a picture of the car in front of the new docks in 1960.

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by Descant

So, for the first time in 60 years, we did major repairs/replacement of our docks, facing the Broads. For the first time, we got an ice-eater. Now you tell me I don't need any of that because the Broads won't freeze? Good thing we took a picture of the car in front of the new docks in 1960.

I would not say no ice this year by any means, but the short range forecast is not looking "solid". I see sunny days between 31-38 degrees, light and variable winds and nothing for storms showing for the next 10 days on my trusty Weatherbug app.

[Blyblvrd]

Has there ever been a year with no ice-in?


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[SAB1]

We are fishing 20 mile bay about 2/3 the way out. 19 mile fishing out to chase island. Last weekend 5-6 inches. Has not been cold this week so doubt we added much. Sunday night the open water out beyond chase thru the graveyard skimmed over.

[smith point boater]

Here in W. Alton looking at the Broads and the area between Smith Point and Rattlesnake and Sleepers the wind is blowing at 10-20 mph and the water is moving very fast. Not a chance there will be any ice soon in the wide open areas of the lake

[Lakegeezer]

Originally Posted by Blyblvrd

Has there ever been a year with no ice-in?


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It depends. There are many years that the broads is not safe. There has never been a year (in the last 30) that Moultonboro Bay Inlet has not frozen safe.

[ishoot308]

The upcoming 10 day forecast calls for night time temps in the teens with mild wind and day time temps just at or below freezing. This will certainly help lock things up especially the mild wind. Below zero temps don't do a thing if the wind is blowing 20 MPH...

I certainly hope the lake fully freezes over this year!!

Dan

[rsmlp]

Originally Posted by Lakegeezer

It depends. There are many years that the broads is not safe. There has never been a year (in the last 30) that Moultonboro Bay Inlet has not frozen safe.

We've been at South Point on long island for 24 years and there has been only once in my recollection that the lake did not freeze over. Several years ago but I can't remember exactly when. Doesn't look promising with the highs consistently in the 30's.

[webmaster]

A polar vortex may be with us in a few weeks so things could change quickly:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/07/weath...uth/index.html

https://boston.cbslocal.com/2021/01/...heric-warming/

[4 for Boating]

I've been watching this from a different perspective as I have friends that ski in Utah (Deer Valley) and Vancouver (Whistler). This year a La Nina is in place which is also driving where the snow/rain falls across the US.

https://weather.com/storms/winter/ne...t-snow-outlook

If the pattern does not change, Pacific Northwest skiing will be the best with Colorado and Utah not so great and resorts farther south dismal. To date, it has followed exactly this model - Whistler 230 inches to date // Deer Valley 77

Also as the enclosed suggests for the North East specifically, while other factors could come into play (Polar Vortex) if the La Nina effects control the playbook alone - it looks to be a lack of snow here until it subsides. When that will be, no one seems to know.

[SAB1]

Nothing like a $15K snowmobile sitting in the trailer .....

[8gv]

Originally Posted by Descant

So, for the first time in 60 years, we did major repairs/replacement of our docks, facing the Broads. For the first time, we got an ice-eater. Now you tell me I don't need any of that because the Broads won't freeze? Good thing we took a picture of the car in front of the new docks in 1960.

Thanks in advance for doing your part to bring a mild winter and early ice out!

[Descant]

Originally Posted by 8gv

Thanks in advance for doing your part to bring a mild winter and early ice out!

Always try to do a good turn daily.

[Kamper]

"Dude. where's my car?"

[WinnisquamZ]

Over here on Winnisquam ice is at the southern parts, center and northern parts are clear. Most winters I would see ice on the northern west shore starting to form. Nothing yet. Cold snap at the end of month into February should give us a ice in. But, for how long? Just a few winter back I remember looking over the ice with a cup of coffee and watching a mini van drive by


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[NH.Solar]

I need to walk out to Gansy Island asap to check on a couple of my off-grid installations, has anyone ventured out onto the ice there yet?
Thanks.

[Kamper]

Originally Posted by NH.Solar

I need to walk out to Gansy Island asap to check on a couple of my off-grid installations, has anyone ventured out onto the ice there yet?
Thanks.

You'll be fine. You can even get in a little fishing on the way.

[Merrymeeting]

We did the complete circuit around the lake yesterday afternoon. For the most part, the lake is still wide open, with little sign of ice in most areas, except for the usual spots.

Alton Bay is relatively solid out to about Sandy Point. At least I hope so as there were a lot of people out on the ice. Looked like the runway had been laid out, several bob houses in place, and even several ATV's and snowmobiles out there. Not sure I'd want to use the bob house that was well out beyond the band stand. But I'm assuming those out there had bored holes and knew what the thickness was.

Also saw people and bob houses on Nineteen Mile Bay. But that was about it.

[PCTim]

I'd like to ask the seasoned locals a question. Is there enough time for Mother Nature to do her thing before the Pond Hockey tourney? It starts 3 weeks from this coming Friday.

Thanks!
Tim

[upthesaukee]

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

We did the complete circuit around the lake yesterday afternoon. For the most part, the lake is still wide open, with little sign of ice in most areas, except for the usual spots.

Alton Bay is relatively solid out to about Sandy Point. At least I hope so as there were a lot of people out on the ice. Looked like the runway had been laid out, several bob houses in place, and even several ATV's and snowmobiles out there. Not sure I'd want to use the bob house that was well out beyond the band stand. But I'm assuming those out there had bored holes and knew what the thickness was.

Also saw people and bob houses on Nineteen Mile Bay. But that was about it.

Caution in Alton Bay: Paul LaRochelle, airport manager for the Alton Bay ice runway, has been out measuring ice thickness in the bay. He reported yesterday on an Alton Bay FB that around the floating bandstand and the plane parking area is 6 inches or so. Heading towards The river, the thickness thins quickly. Heading north from the bandstand, it also thins out as you head out, to only a couple of inches. He is urging extreme.

Dave

[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by PCTim

I'd like to ask the seasoned locals a question. Is there enough time for Mother Nature to do her thing before the Pond Hockey tourney? It starts 3 weeks from this coming Friday.

Thanks!
Tim

Yes...

Dan

[Mink Islander]

Well, it’s a start — part of the water to the north of Mink Island skimmed over last night. But it won’t hold, I fear. Going to warm up at the end of the week and rain. We need a significant change in weather pattern to have any hope of safe ice out my way....

[fatlazyless]

Look'n at the three or four different BearCam views, there's some soft look'n skim ice out there. That ice-eater is doing its thing, carving out a big wide semi-circle of open water, surrounding that dock, they-ah, ups the north entry to that Bear Isl passage.

Question of the day: Is this look'n like a wussy win-tah or what?

Ya-know ...... removing my 450-lb aluminum and steel, 10'-wide, old boat lift with two pow'r pulls for pulling and steer'n it up a skinny wood ramp, all by my lonely little self is not getting any easier .... or any less challenging.

Will I still be doing this boat lift seasonal routine when I'm 80, in eleven years ... ?

Here's hope'n the climate warms up just a wee bit, the lake never-ever freezes again, and global warming solves my problem-o! .....

[codeman671]

All clear on East Bear. Some warming coming later in the week.

[fatlazyless]

Lake Waukewan in Meredith, about one mile from Lake Winnipesaukee has ice and right now there's about 4-5 bob houses out there with people out on the ice, presumably ice-fishing. Is easy to see from the nearby road, and there's a very well constructed launch ramp for boats or bob houses, there, as well as car parking along the road.

In sometime like 2012 or so, the Pond Hockey Classic got relocated from Meredith Bay to this area on Lake Waukewan due to insufficient ice and it worked out totally fantastic.

So, who knows but maybe in 2021 it will once again be the year to get the puck out of Meredith Bay and slap shot it one mile away, to Lake Waukewan ........ score big on Waukewan! ......

[PCTim]

Originally Posted by fatlazyless

Lake Waukewan in Meredith, about one mile from Lake Winnipesaukee has ice and right now there's about 4-5 bob houses out there with people out on the ice, presumably ice-fishing. Is easy to see from the nearby road, and there's a very well constructed launch ramp for boats or bob houses, there, as well as car parking along the road.

In sometime like 2012 or so, the Pond Hockey Classic got relocated from Meredith Bay to this area on Lake Waukewan due to insufficient ice and it worked out totally fantastic.

So, who knows but maybe in 2021 it will once again be the year to get the puck out of Meredith Bay and slap shot it one mile away, to Lake Waukewan ........ score big on Waukewan! ......

Yes, they've moved to Waukewan twice now (I played there the last time they moved there). It was cool having everything in the lumber yard, but a pain walking across the street to get to the rinks (locker rooms were in the yard too).

Still curious as to how all of this is going to work with everything else going on. It'll be interesting for sure.

[WinnisquamZ]

Winnisquam has been icing up all day. Have been watching it grow west to east. Yes, I have a lot of time on my hands this last few months


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[fatlazyless]

Looking at the BearCam, yesterday's skim ice with the signature semi-circle ice-eater opening showing is today's all-open water. Ice yesterday and open water today..... how's about that?

Oh well, that's the way the banana peels, or the way the ice freezes, or melts, or something.

A couple days ago on craigslist, there was a Scat one or two person, bright yellow hovercraft for sale on what looked like Cow Island at something like $6000 or so. Have you seen that ad? Go to craigslist-NH-boats and do a search for Scat and it has five photos including one on the lake. Is that Cow Island? Those Scats are very noisy, very loud, and pretty difficult to control. They sort of roam around on the ice like there's not enough friction between the bottom of the hull and the flat ice surface.

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by fatlazyless

Looking at the BearCam, yesterday's skim ice with the signature semi-circle ice-eater opening showing is today's all-open water. Ice yesterday and open water today..... how's about that?

Oh well, that's the way the banana peels, or the way the ice freezes, or melts, or something.

A couple days ago on craigslist, there was a Scat one or two person, bright yellow hovercraft for sale on what looked like Cow Island at something like $6000 or so. Have you seen that ad? Go to craigslist-NH-boats and do a search for Scat and it has five photos including one on the lake. Is that Cow Island? Those Scats are very noisy, very loud, and pretty difficult to control. They sort of roam around on the ice like there's not enough friction between the bottom of the hull and the flat ice surface.

It’s Mark Island, not Cow. The new residents on the end facing you own it.

I am told there was a skim from Sheps to the Bear Island mail dock yesterday. I can see a skim in front of our place on East Bear this morning. Not sure if it will survive.

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by codeman671

It’s Mark Island, not Cow. The new residents on the end facing you own it.

I am told there was a skim from Sheps to the Bear Island mail dock yesterday. I can see a skim in front of our place on East Bear this morning. Not sure if it will survive.

See the same thing out in front of my place on the NW shore of BI - I look across at Moultonborough Neck.

All the ice that was out front this morning has cleared and there is a light chop out there - nice sunny day though otherwise.

[Kings Bluff]

The ice is forming at the mouth of Alton Bay. See www.winnipesaukeecam.com

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

See the same thing out in front of my place on the NW shore of BI - I look across at Moultonborough Neck.

All the ice that was out front this morning has cleared and there is a light chop out there - nice sunny day though otherwise.

All gone by us as well. It looks like the middle of next week before we are below freezing around the clock so I don't expect much to happen until then. I am sure some of the more sheltered areas will continue to build ice.

[Mink Islander]

I’m starting to doubt we’re going to have a full ice-in this year. Mid 40’s and rain for the weekend isn’t going to do any good... As others have said, we need at least a week long very cold snap (single digits at night and below freezing during the day) to make any progress. And the days are getting longer.... If things aren’t locked in within a couple weeks, I’ll be skeptical we’ll get to safe ice in the larger parts of the lake.

[C-Bass]

Ice fishing seems to be in full swing in 19Mi/20Mi bay, even saw a truck parked out there near the beach. No idea how thick it is.

[rsmlp]

Originally Posted by Mink Islander

I’m starting to doubt we’re going to have a full ice-in this year. Mid 40’s and rain for the weekend isn’t going to do any good... As others have said, we need at least a week long very cold snap (single digits at night and below freezing during the day) to make any progress. And the days are getting longer.... If things aren’t locked in within a couple weeks, I’ll be skeptical we’ll get to safe ice in the larger parts of the lake.

Starting next Monday the 10 day forecast looks promising for ice formation.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/03254:4:US

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by rsmlp

Starting next Monday the 10 day forecast looks promising for ice formation.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/03254:4:US

That wind will hurt things a bit. Its going to be a bit breezier than it has been recently. I don't doubt we will get ice in, but its going to be late in the month.

[chaseisland]

Originally Posted by C-Bass

Ice fishing seems to be in full swing in 19Mi/20Mi bay, even saw a truck parked out there near the beach. No idea how thick it is.

The fact that it's parked near the beach makes the last sentence moot. Let me know when there are six trucks parked in a circle out by Chase!

[fatlazyless]

So, what is incredibly fascinating? Here's a fascinating piece of local weather info coming from the National Weather Service, www.weather.gov

Weather.Gov predicts 1/2" of ice/snow in Meredith on Saturday afternoon, and 4 to 8" of ice/snow in Waterville Valley which is something like 35 air miles, or something, north.

So maybe you want to drive your pickup truck up to Waterville Valley and bring home a truckload of ice/snow! ..... ...... and build a snowman out on that 19 Mile Bay, lake ice. ....
..................

6:55-pm update: Now it's saying less than 1/2" in Meredith and 6-10" in Waterville Valley. This all seems totally wacky!

Saturday, January 16, 2021 is free ice fishing day for this year.

A resident yearly license for age 68+ only costs seven dollars/year.

[Mink Islander]

Well things have improved a little in the past few days and the temperature outlook is better too.

My Ice-prognosticating spreadsheet that uses forecasted temperature ranges and converts projected degree days to daily ice build suggests that we will have somewhere around 7-9 inches by Feb 6th.... Lots of other variables at play that will impact that too (wind and snow, for example). But it’s a reasonably good starting data point....

Pic is from yesterday morning.

[Pine Island Guy]

I found this interesting article... for those that want to do play with the calculations

1. Calculate the average temperature of the day by adding low temperature and high temperature and dividing by 2. Use degrees Fahrenheit. Now subtract that average from 32 degrees, the temperature at which water freezes. You have now just calculated what they call “freezing degree days.”

Example: If the low temperature today was 24 degrees and the high was 30 degrees, the average temperature of the day was 27 degrees. Subtract that from 32, and you get 5 freezing degree days for this day.

2. Based on studies, once a thin layer of ice film forms on a lake, it will add 1 inch of ice for every 15 freezing degree days in a 24 hour period.

Example: If we had a day with 5 freezing degree days, you would use the formula 5/15 = .33. On this day you would add .33 inches of ice, or 1/3 of an inch. But remember, this is after the first layer of ice forms.

This shows how long it can take a lake to freeze, even after a cold day.

With the temps this week, we have a lot of "freezing degree days" coming up!! -PIG

[Mink Islander]

It’s less than perfect, but gives a good directional sense of how cold/for how long it needs to be to build ice. I used to just figure two weeks from after my part of the lake skimmed over (and held) and it was probably safe (defined by me as 7” or more of black ice at Cattle Landing). Typically that meant MLK weekend was the first available weekend to venture out. A bit late this year.

[Mink Islander]

It’s less than perfect, but gives a good directional sense of how cold/for how long it needs to be to build ice. I used to just figure two weeks from after my part of the lake skimmed over (and held) and it was probably safe (defined by me as 7” or more of black ice at Cattle Landing). Typically that meant MLK weekend was the first available weekend to venture out. A bit late this year.

[GTO]

Originally Posted by Kings Bluff

The ice is forming at the mouth of Alton Bay. See www.winnipesaukeecam.com

It looked liked Meredith Bay was all ice as far out as you could see. yesterday morning there was one guy ice fishing right in front of Lago

[8gv]

We have an ice out contest.

Determining when ice is "in" can be the subject of debate.

So... how about a contest to guess the date and time of the first motor vehicle that goes through the ice?

Depending on how things play out this may be a somewhat morbid concept.

[MAXUM]

The good news is the ice seems to be holding in front of my place despite the wind and with that layer of snow on it - it's iced over from my vantage point.

So hoping that in abut 3 weeks time it will be safe to get out to BI.

[WinnisquamZ]

Wide open here on the mid northern end of Winnisquam. Any ice from yesterday is gone with today’s wind


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[mswlogo]

Newfound lake is looking good too.

Solid blanket of snow from my camera view.
No ice huts yet.

My neighbors camera that looks up the lake is down ;(

As long as it holds through this wind spell it should hold.

EDIT: Middle not frozen yet.

[SAB1]

Saw the first truck on 19 mi today.

[dickiej]

Here ya go...