Whats up next week?

[tpabrad]

So it looks like the temps will be returning to normal but there seems to be some hints of something on Thursday or Friday next week in the forecasts. Any of the weather guys have any info on this? Something to look at or nothing to waste time on?

[chipj29]

Could be something. Might not be anything. Hard to say definatively, as it is a week away. The models have been similar to the description in the "big daddy" thread. Some say the storm goes west and it rains here, some say the storm goes out to sea and we get nothing...and others say it is just right, we get snow. I have a feeling we won't know for sure what will happen until ~24 hours before the storm.

[Lakegeezer]

I'm flying back to Manchester next Friday. According to my personal travel models, anytime I travel during the winter, a storm is likely.

[tpabrad]

Originally Posted by Lakegeezer

I'm flying back to Manchester next Friday. According to my personal travel models, anytime I travel during the winter, a storm is likely.

Im ok with storms before or after, just not on the day of my flight. I'll be flyin in to Manchester on the same day!

[hazelnut]

Originally Posted by Lakegeezer

I'm flying back to Manchester next Friday. According to my personal travel models, anytime I travel during the winter, a storm is likely.

YAHOO! ha ha ha Sorry but I like them odds. Hurry up and get on that flight so we get the big daddy!!!! Sorry that you'll be stuck somewhere but at least when you get here all the ugly brown snow will be replaced with white gold!!!!

[tpabrad]

Originally Posted by hazelnut

YAHOO! ha ha ha Sorry but I like them odds. Hurry up and get on that flight so we get the big daddy!!!! Sorry that you'll be stuck somewhere but at least when you get here all the ugly brown snow will be replaced with white gold!!!!

It snowed everyday when I came up last year.

[hazelnut]

Is it too early to get excited about this snow event Wednesday/Thursday? I would love to hear from our resident forum experts. You guys are usually spot on!

[upthesaukee]

My weather alert email says a snow alert for Wed. with snow starting in the evening, accumulating 4-6 inches, but then changing over to rain & snow in the early hours of Thurs and continuing for the day on Thurs, with a few snow showers overnight Thurs-Fri.

I guess we will need those snow shovels and roof rakes that come with umbrellas .

[hazelnut]

WMUR just called for 10 inches in the area. I've seen as much as 12 inches called by NECN. As of 12 noon WMUR called for little to no changeover. So it will be a close one I'm sure. It's all about the rain/snow line.

[SIKSUKR]

I'll go with up's prediction. Maybe a few more inches.

[hazelnut]

I'm thinking, wishfully, 8-10.

[tpabrad]

Well I'm pretty happy, reports of where i'm going is at least 10 inches, and from what I'm reading there is another supposed to come in behind it with some more, although exact path they arent so sure of.

Only thing that I really dont like is they are calling for high winds on Friday. I really hate flying into MHT with high winds.

[WINNOCTURN]

Form SledNH

http://www.slednh.com/forums/index.p...ndpost&p=32760

[CentreHarborEric]

Looking to fire up the sleds in Center Harbor/Holderness/Sandwich area this weekend, hopefully you guys got some needed snow up there.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Black Cat Island has received 9.5 inches of new snow in the last 48 hours. This came in
two shots: an initial 7-inch storm followed by last night's 2.5 inch burst. There
is a chance for more snow on Sunday, followed by quiet weather.

The lake water temperature has been slowly rising in
recent days. This is a sign of the annual weakening and melt. A truck was visible
this morning towing a bobhouse near Cook's Point on Moultonborough Neck. Snow
machines are still out there. Just be aware that the ice has begun the early stages
of its annual melt and weak spots will now be increasing in number.

[hazelnut]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

[URL="http://www.blackcatnh.com/weather"]The lake water temperature has been slowly rising in
recent days. This is a sign of the annual weakening and melt. A truck was visible
this morning towing a bobhouse near Cook's Point on Moultonborough Neck. Snow
machines are still out there. Just be aware that the ice has begun the early stages
of its annual melt and weak spots will now be increasing in number.

WOW could have fooled me. I drilled about 5 holes today around Long Island and Little Bear and we consistently had 18-20 inches of ice. With this latest blanket I would figure it to insulate the ice and hold it fast. I am no weather guru though. What causes the lake temp to rise after all the snow we just got????

[Formula260SS]

Originally Posted by hazelnut

WOW could have fooled me. I drilled about 5 holes today around Long Island and Little Bear and we consistently had 18-20 inches of ice. With this latest blanket I would figure it to insulate the ice and hold it fast. I am no weather guru though. What causes the lake temp to rise after all the snow we just got????

A little off topic but one thing I have noticed with my driveway is if it is icy and we get new snow it will loosen the ice up underneath it. The snow insulates and let's the grounds heat eat at the ice. Same principal maybe once the lake temp starts rising??

I agree, good ice right now.....on our way up this morning for the night

[hazelnut]

AHA! Perhaps you found the loophole in my theory. Yeah I am really actually curious as to how that works. I am sure it has to do with the average mean temp being higher now as we approach March. I wasn't sure if the new wet snow negated that somehow. Anyway my next question would be are we totally all done making new ice?

[hazelnut]

Sorry to flood the thread here but back to the spirit of this thread. What is up with this next storm? It looks like they are calling for 6+ inches of snow Sunday into Monday? That would be awesome for the trails.

[upthesaukee]

Originally Posted by hazelnut

AHA! Perhaps you found the loophole in my theory. Yeah I am really actually curious as to how that works. I am sure it has to do with the average mean temp being higher now as we approach March. I wasn't sure if the new wet snow negated that somehow. Anyway my next question would be are we totally all done making new ice?

...had a link to another site that explained the insulating characteristics of snow and how it can affect ice formation, and I thought also the melting of ice.

As I remember it (gray hair, what's left, and all ) I think it was to an organization in Minn.

I just can't find it or even remember if it was in a weather or snowmobile or what type of thread.

Maybe the original poster will read this and remember the link.

[trfour]

explain some of the questions; http://redoubtreporter.blogspot.com/...rs-affect.html

[This'nThat]

Originally Posted by upthesaukee

...had a link to another site that explained the insulating characteristics of snow and how it can affect ice formation, and I thought also the melting of ice.

Look at the last two pages of this article from NOAA. There's a simple equation that describes what's going on with ice formation. Basically, ice forms whenever there is heat conduction from the lake water to the atmosphere (the ice conducts heat upwards from the warm water underneath to the cold air above). The rate of heat loss (and thus, new ice formation) depends on (a) the temperature difference between the lake (Tf) and the top of the ice (Ts), and (b) the thickness (H) of the ice.

Heat Loss is proportional to (Tf - Ts)/H, where Tf > 32 degrees

Two things to note, here:
(1) If the surface temperature is high enough, heat from the surface flows down to the lake, warming the lake water
(2) Since snow is an insulator, it not only slows down the formation of the ice, but it also retards the ice melt.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by hazelnut

Sorry to flood the thread here but back to the spirit of this thread. What is up with this next storm? It looks like they are calling for 6+ inches of snow Sunday into Monday? That would be awesome for the trails.

Winter Storm Watch in effect for all of northern New England for Sunday into Monday. Initial forecasts looked like there would be a changeover this far north but now things are trending colder. We are certainly colder today than in the past few days. We have been running around 32 the last few days on the island, and the water temp even jumped up to 34 at the 2-foot depth a few days ago, (still iced over) but now we're back in the 20s during the daytime (27 now) and water temp 33 at 2 feet and 10 feet.

Looks like a repeat of what we just had -- another 8-10 inches here. This one may be a bit more because we're starting off colder. The most recent storm we started off above freezing and it took a while for it to accumulate. When it did, it compacted under its own weight. This one will have a bit more fluff to it.

Safety note about these late season snowstorms: Warmer temps = higher water content in snow. Ice and snow by themselves are not slippery -- water is (skaters don't actually skate on the ice, but on a very thin layer of water between the blades and the ice.)

So... with that in mind... remember that the warmer the temps are, the wetter the snow is, and the more slippery the roads and walkways are going to be. Cold brings dry conditions and powder snow with very little water content. It offers much better traction.

The most recent storm came after several weeks of cold, dry snow events. Nobody was ready for driving in the wet type of snow. We only had a dusting when the scanner started lighting up with reports of rollover accidents. The roads didn't even look threatening (I was out driving) but when I tested my brakes I had nothing under the tires.

The other thing to keep in mind, as we get into these spring storms, is "heart attack snow." Many, many people have died while shoveling snow.

When the water content is higher, the snow is heavier, and people don't realize how strenuous the activity is. The basic rule with heavy wet snow is: If you'd think twice about shoveling the same amount of dirt, then you should probably sit it out, use a snowblower or have someone else shovel, and get into shape before attempting.

We have been getting easy-to-shovel storms all winter long, until this past week. This upcoming storm will be "somewhere in between" heavy/wet and fluffy/dry. At least here at the lake. In southern NH it may weigh more.

[This'nThat]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

This one may be a bit more because we're starting off colder.

That's good. We could use the moisture. Looking at the NH DES site, the lake level is down 1 Standard Deviation from normal. That means the lake doesn't get this low at this time of year but once every 7 years or so.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by This'nThat

That's good. We could use the moisture. Looking at the NH DES site, the lake level is down 1 Standard Deviation from normal. That means the lake doesn't get this low at this time of year but once every 7 years or so.

There is snow in the snow pack that has yet to melt. Part of the reason for the lower lake level is probably the abnormally cold air we've had. That causes two things:

1) Cold air is usually dry air, having come from Northern Canada where there is no moisture source, and dry air causes evaporation;

2) Not as much melting as we usually get. New England winters are cold, but have their mood swings. It doesn't normally stay cold like it has been doing this winter. Only in the last week or so, have we seen a midwinter melt.

Winter storm warning is now in effect for the entire state except Rockingham County (coast.) Another 8 to 10 inches for the lake (maybe a foot). The mountains will get more than a foot from this.

[hazelnut]

I was looking for the "Thank You" button on this thread CanisLupusArctos, however there was none. Therefore, THANKS! I really appreciate your knowledge and passion for all things weather.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Thank you! Enjoy the storm.

[webmaster]

Originally Posted by hazelnut

I was looking for the "Thank You" button on this thread CanisLupusArctos, however there was none.

I've now added the "Thanks" feature to the Weather Forum!