Winni Weather - winter 2007

[CanisLupusArctos]

Around New England, the weather is always a popular discussion topic, and that's especially true here "at the lake" where outdoor activities on or near the water, or nearby mountains, are a staple in everyday life. As a meteorology buff I decided it might be fun and beneficial to many if there was a seasonally-rotating weather thread in the forum.

Here it is - Winni Weather, the winter 2007 edition!

Use this thread to discuss local weather, post your (local) snowfall measurements, temperatures, wind gusts, storm damage reports, and other info. Ask your weather questions, get answers. If you're into weather, share your knowledge and links to your favorite online weather data.

And thus it begins... let's get that ice thickened up and pray for some blizzards to decorate it!

[Resident 2B]

CLA,

What a great idea!

I am also a weather buff and in the middle of an on-line weather certificate course through Penn State University. Boring to some, but something I always wanted to do.

I will monitor this link daily and add to it when I think it is approproate.

Keep up the great work. Nothing like our New England weather!

R2B

[DRH]

At just before 10:00 PM, the outside temperature in West Alton is +0.2 degs and the wind is blowing at 8 - 15 mph with gusts of about 20 mph.

The expected high temperature tomorrow isn't supposed to get much over 10 degs! I wonder how much ice the lake will "grow" over the next several days?

[Resident 2B]

If the wind does not "trash" the ice, and I do not think it will, then the wind should increase the heat transfer into the ice and increase the rate of thinkening the ice.

For the first time this year, it is very cold here in northern New England. The cold will relax a bit on Sunday, then re-establish itself for most of next week. The ice should stand up against the wind on Friday and early Saturday, then thicken a lot more next week, resulting in some great winter ice activities on the lake for the next four to seven weeks.

Please do not go out on any ice that is not at least 4 inches thick. Also, be aware that ice thickness can vary over very short distances, so make sure you know all local variations before getting on the ice.

Be safe!

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

After such an abnormal December and January it sure is good to have the lake "back to it's old winter self,"-- freezing over, wind blowing, snow flying, arctic cold fronts passing, and all that other stuff they put in beer commercials.

Feast your eyes on the midnight temperature map from Plymouth State U's met program. All that cold air northwest of us will be transferring down here overnight and tomorrow. Check out Mount Washington at minus-27! No doubt the observers up there are hearing "building cracks" from their concrete walls tonight! I can't wait to hear the lake start cracking and booming, too, as the ice expands in the cold air, against an unforgiving shoreline. On the really cold nights it's enough to rattle the windows.

[pmj]

It is brrrrrrrurrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrry cold morning in Alton... -7 degrees...that is minus 7 below 0.

Resident2B, I am interested to learn more about your on line weather certificate course...is this open to anyone ?? I LOVE learning about weather and as a sailor it can come in very handy!

pmj

[SIKSUKR]

At 7:45am its -30.2 with a windchill of -78.3 on top of the rockpile.I think winter is finally here!

[Finder]

Ice contracts when it gets colder and expands when the sun hits it.

[HomeWood]

Accuweather says it's -4 in Moultonborough right now. Fantastic!!! If all goes right I'll be at the lake next Saturday or possibly Sunday!

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by Finder

Ice contracts when it gets colder and expands when the sun hits it.

That's the first time I've heard that - can anyone offer a quote from a physics textbook? I sold mine after college... I'm ready to stand corrected.

Water, as far as I know, becomes denser as it cools to +1 C, then, once in equilibrium at 0 C it starts expanding again (becoming less dense, allowing the solid state to float) - hence the reason ice makes things burst when it gets inside them. If ice expanded as it warmed (like most other solids do) then wouldn't it be impossible to thaw a frozen pipe without risking a burst?

At the lake, I wake up in the morning to find "pressure ridges" in the ice that formed overnight, as the ice became too big for the shoreline while cooling overnight.

R2B, I'm also interested in that online course!

[Resident 2B]

Since several people have asked about the on-line weather course, either through private messages or on this thread, I am supplying the following information.

Penn State University is known world-wide for their excellent meteorological programs. Many of the better weather forcasters are Penn State graduates including Joe Bastardi and Ellioit Abrams, both of Accu-Weather fame.

Penn State offers a certificate program in weather forecastng that is open to everyone. This is not a program where you work at your own pace. It is structured with course starting and completion times and although it is open to everyone, enrollment is limited. There are four sections to the course and each section costs about $1,350. No one said that Penn State was inexpensive!

Below is a link to their web site:

http://www.worldcampus.psu.edu/Weath...tificate.shtml

R2B

[Frank]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

That's the first time I've heard that - can anyone offer a quote from a physics textbook? I sold mine after college... I'm ready to stand corrected.

See http://www.chrismanual.com/Intro/prop.htm - ice gets slightly, very slighty, denser as it cools. The effect is tiny in the temperature range we experience in NH. The difference in density is about 0.3% as ice cools from 30 F to -20 F. Not a large effect, and nothing like the change in density from liquid water to ice.

[Finder]

One mile of open ice on the lake surface can expand by as much as three feet when the sun hits it. I've seen it happen. Freezing water expands and when it becomes solid contracts as it gets colder.

[SteveA]

This doesn't directly answer the question of whether the ice "shrinks or grows"

But good reading and safety tips.

http://www.yellowknife.ca/City_Hall/...Ice_Facts.html

[SteveA]

http://www.getsmarter.org/mstv/L3_c.cfm

[DRH]

The outside temp. here has not risen above 0 degs today. It's been very gusty all day, too, with winds averaging 15 - 25 mph and occasional gusts over 30 mph.

[Resident 2B]

If the wind drops off tonight, as I believe it will, with a clear sky and the dew point at -17 degrees, we are likely to see -10 to -12 degrees tonight around the lake. This is much colder than the NWS is forecasting. It all depends on the wind, but I am confident it will drop to calm and take the tempature way down.

This is great ice thinkening weather!

Go Derby!!

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

You're right... Friday's high on Black Cat was just 2 degrees - many notches lower than the +10 they were forecasting. NWS-Gray has just admitted their conservatism in the forecast discussion by deviating from "warmer" computer model guidance for tonight's temps. They're now predicting -10 for Portland and a few places -30 in the mountains. Mount Washington won't be one of them - with radiational cooling taking place, the summit is -7, warmer than the valley. The NWS has also mentioned clouds moving in by morning, which would put a stop to any radiational cooling.

Tonight we've been down to -5 but we've been level at -2 since 2200. When I drove through Center Harbor earlier the MVSB clock said -7. I think the island is getting "warmed" by the lake again. The water underneath the ice is undoubtedly giving up some heat, allowing the ice to thicken.

Check out the imagery tonight. On tonight's temperature map, we have negative double-digits all to the NW of here in VT and upstate NY. The IR Sattelite pic shows the NW wind condensing over the warmer ocean waters.

BTW I'm still reading some of those articles posted about the physics of ice. Very interesting stuff! Makes me want to go back to college. Water is such a wierd substance, and that statement is just the tip of the iceberg. (*rim-shot*)

[CanisLupusArctos]

After flurrying all day Saturday and amounting to only a Trace, the overnight hours produced some measureable snow at Black Cat Island - a whopping 0.1 inch. The season's biggest snowfall to date remains the 4-incher on the 20th, which the NWS-Gray told me was a lake effect snow band from Lake Erie that survived the long trip and became enhanced by lift provided by the mountains behind Center Harbor as it moved in from the west. We've yet to see a phasing of the northern and southern jet streams close enough to the coast to bring us a good old-fashioned NH snowstorm, but little shots of snow keep coming as the moisture-starved systems dive out of Canada now that winter is here. Those mountains behind Center Harbor are certainly a help in this particular location.

[Resident 2B]

Although it does look like the northern and southern jets will be rather flat and therefore unable to hook-up for at least the next seven days, which means no real rain or snow storms, there is winter weather in-store for the lakes region during the next ten days.

It looks like there is a lot of deep, cold air to the west of Hudson Bay and the general flow is right in our direction. This should mean fair weather with daytime highs below freezing and night time lows in the single numbers for the next several days starting tonight.

It should warm up a little towards the end of this week, but still staying below freezing for most of the time. It then gets cold again at the end of next weekend for another three or four days.

All of this is great news for those that are involved in ice related lake activities and should allow for reasonably safe ice conditions to develop during the next week. Ice conditions vary significantly with water flow, so everyone should know what they are doing before getting out on the ice.

From what I see, the next chance for any real snow is next Sunday night or Monday, the first weekend in February. It looks like any phasing of the jets is at least a week away, so the snow lovers will remain unhappy for now.

As with all weather forecasts, time will tell!

R2B

[HomeWood]

Thanks Resident. I want snow for trail riding, but I'll take safer ice first and foremost.

[CanisLupusArctos]

R2B, excellent point. I've seen relatively new lake ice get ruined by snowpack insulating it. I think it's better for the icepack when the snow comes in the form of a major Nor'Easter whose wind creates alternating snow-free and drifted spots out there.

The Weather Channel is now showing "Snow and Wind" for our Friday, and Todd Gutner on WCSH-6 Portland just said he's watching for an Alberta clipper on Thursday followed by possible Low coming up the east coast on Friday but I haven't had time to check the models. What do you (or anyone else) see for that day?

Weather fans may enjoy the new time-lapse feature on my web cam. It goes back about 4.5 hours in 3-minute increments. At blackcatnh.com, click on "previous images" and then click the timelapse link in the upper right. If you check it before 11 a.m., the timelapse will reach into "yesterday" since the camera doesn't take pictures at night.

[Resident 2B]

CLA,

I just spent an hour looking at three models, the GFS, the European and the UK Met. Of the three, the UK Met is strongest in suggesting a storm effecting our area on Friday, Feb 2 a/k/a Ground Hog Day. If the UK Met is right, the low pressure area currently part of the "block" off the west coast would drift to the southeast, picks-up gulf moisture, heads northnortheastward up the coast, and phases with the cold air from the northern jet. This clearly results in a snow storm for everyone within 200 miles west of the storm track, where we would be.

However, the other two models do not completely agree. The European brings two storms close together one a bit north of us and one well south of us, with not much snow for us. The GFS holds onto the the Rex Block off the west coast and keeps the small clippers, some with no moisture, coming at us every 36 to 48 hours.

At times like this, we should look for what happens to the area of significant difference between the models and see what it does in the next 24 to 36 hours. That should tell us what model is most likely correct. In this case if the upper level low off the west coast starts to move to the southeast, then the UK Met would be right, and we should get a good storm on Friday. So, until something happens out west, it is a toss-up as to what model to follow and too early to forecast a storm. I think that is why the public forecasts hint at a poosbility of something, without commiting to anything.

There might be some "folklore danger" if we get a strom on Ground Hog Day. It has been said that if the ground hog does not see his (or her) shadow the morning of Ground Hog Day, winter will end early. Since it just started, I do not think it will end early. Following that reasoning, it would have to be sunny on Friday , not stormy, making the GFS model correct. Does this mean GFS stands for Groundhog Forecasting System?

Bottom line is the models are all over the place and it is too early to tell about any possible storm on Friday. I will look at the runs later today and early tomorrow and see what develops.

Let me know if you see it differently.

R2B

[gtxrider]

Good movie but as weather predictors, I don't trust rodents.

Come on snow!!!!! We had a bit here and without the help of a weasel.

"I got you babe....."

[CanisLupusArctos]

Hey folks, this is Winnitawney Phil, and I am a groundhog who has taken over Mike's computer. I'm offended and I'm going to join forces with those poor cavemen that Geico just won't stop dissin.' I have a close cousin who's a famous weather forecaster in Pennsylvania and my uncle recently appeared in a sleeping pill commercial with former President Abraham Lincoln! I'm so much more than just a weasel!

Mike "CLA" here again. I just chased a groundhog away from my computer with a flashlight. Big shadow on the wall. I don't think he'll be back for at least 8-10 weeks. It is 7 degrees and dropping steadily out there. Topped out at 20 on the Island today. Watched Gunstock's snow guns going full-force all day. Peak wind of 17 (North) around noon. Still no time to look at the models (setting up a new wx station, and taking much longer in the cold) so thank you R2B for the briefing. Joe Cupo on Ch. 6 was on at 11, still flip-flopping on the issues regarding Friday. He seems to think it'll form but is questioning a coast-hugger vs. farther out to sea. If it's still a good possibility tomorrow I'll definitely take a look at the models.

[Weirs guy]

I'm not the weather nut some of you are, but I do appreciate the work you guys are doing. Keep it up!

Now, hows that storm on Friday shaping up?

[CanisLupusArctos]

No need to be a weather nut to comment here. Just share what you see/measure, offer what you know, ask about what you don't know, and remind people like me not to talk too technical without explaining in plain english along the way.

The Friday storm appears to be materializing - but once again I haven't seen the models yet. I'm hoping to take a look this afternoon.

This morning I awoke to Ch-6 Portland calling it "Snow Likely" on Friday (upped from yesterday's "Snow possible.") The Weather Channel made the same kind of wording change. In weather forecasting, wording is everything and the National Weather Service actually has official criteria for using certain words (and phrases) in public forecasts, to the point where they sound redundant. Example: "Snow likely in the morning, followed by a chance of snow in the afternoon." Such wording means the odds favor morning snow over afternoon snow, although both could end up happening.

Weather forecasting is a lot like betting - probability and chances play a huge roll. Being experienced definitely helps, but even champion poker players lose high stakes once in a while.

[Resident 2B]

It is looking more and more like we will get a fairly good snow on Friday. It looks like the UK Met model mentioned yesterday was more "correct" than the other models and now the other models are coming into some agreement with the UK Met.

So, now the question becomes timing, track and storm intensity.

It looks like the timing is still a question mark, but Friday looks like the day. How early or how late on Friday is the question. The track looks like a "coast hugger" right now. This track usually means a mixture of snow and rain along the coast with all snow in the lakes and mountains. The storm track is very important and still a bit of a question. As far as intensity, there is still some uncertainty, but it is shaping up to be a moderate storm with 0.5 to 1.0 inch of liquid. If the ratio of snow to liquid is 10:1, it looks to me like 5" to 10" in the lakes region.

It is still three days away, so things can still change, but that is what it looks like to me today. This is all based on computer models, and they are still more art than science.

In the mean time, tonight's clipper will not bring the lakes region much snow, but it looks like a rapid development once it hits the Atlantic moisture with around 6" on light snow on Cape Cod. They will get more snow tonight than they get on Friday.

It will remain cold for the foreseeable future continuing the "ice build". Good news for most people.

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

YYYYYeeeesss!! Yes! Yes! (Sorry.... *deep breath*) It's been almost a year since I last saw a decent snowfall...

Time to look at those models. Oh wait - not yet. Need to fix the new heater I installed in my rain gauge last night. I must remember not to start such projects when cold and more tired than I admit.

[SIKSUKR]

Soory guys,but as a self proclaimed weather nut myself,forcasting snowfall in NE more than a day in advance is like throwing darts at the wall.It's such a fine line whether we have a substantial snowfall in the northeast and where it will fall.You can have all the computer models you want,which I will say can pretty accurately predict there will be a storm forming.But exactly what track and what amounts will fall where is still a pure guess until less than 8 hours prior.I am bonifide snow lover and have watched this stuff for longer than some of you have been alive.Too often I have got myself angered over forecasted snowfall that didn't materialize.I know the process is getting better but we are still a long way a way from predicting snowfall amounts in NE many days before.That being said,I still love to here what you guys are discussing about the models.Having only had about 2-3 inches here in Bedford this year so far,all I'm asking is,Please please please let it snow!

[Resident 2B]

Siksukr and all others,

I never said that forecast models were accurate, so I agree with your opinion. However, they are interesting to review and to some degree projections can be made from them. Exact storm tracks, percise storm intensity and P-type are a real challange for today's models and these variables are so important to what happens during winter storms here in New England.

That said, it is looking like the storm on Firday will effect the Lakes Region, but the snowfall is likely to be on the lower side of my 5"to 10" estimate made yesterday. Today I would guess it will be around 6". Two reasons why: no high pressure area in place to pump in the cold air while the storm is around, and the storm looks to be developing too late and too far away from us to bring snow at the top end of yesterday's estimate. However, I still think it will be within the range served up yesterday.

It will get very cold after the storm passes. The storm will intensify northeast of us and will act as a big pump bringing down some very cold air and we could go well below zero on Sunday and Monday nights.

Again, this is based upon models and we seem to be in agreement that the models are far from perfect.

On the ground hog front, it looks like the local ground hog will not see his shadow on Friday. Based upon folklore, that means an early ice-out as winter will end soon. This is in strong contrast with the weather models that are suggesting a cold and stormy 30 days ahead. We do not seem to be able to get the rodent and the models on the same page.

Time will tell!

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

Looks like the storm is missing us but more cold on the way. Good to see those ski areas 85-99% open now, with manmade snow from all the cold, and lots of natural snow from upsloping winds in the mountains every time a wave passes.

Looks like some record overnight lows and record low maxes for the daytime Mon-Wed.

A note on those models - one time I interviewed a Plymouth State University meteorology prof. for an article (now posted on http://www.thesilentforest.com/journ...tonweather.htm)
in which he told me that while the models have grown significantly since the 1980s and are still increasing in accuracy as more data (including historical) gets put into them, they can never be perfect without being programmed with measurements for all levels of the atmosphere on the first day of earth's existence, or as he called it "the initial state of the atmosphere." He told me that for as long as the initial state of the atmosphere remains unknown to us, future states of the atmosphere will never be predictable with 100% accuracy. That was as simple as he could put it - he said the full explanation gets into chaos theory and stuff like that.

[SIKSUKR]

The intent of my post was not to discredit anyone posting here or any weather service.I'm just stating what I think is in fact the almost impossible task of estimating snowfall amounts in certain locations in NE days in advance.I still enjoy watching forecasting,if for nothing else to see how it turns out.As far as snowfall amounts in the Lakes region,I would love to see the 6 inches your forecasting but as I watch this morning,that looks unlikely.I hope I'm wrong.

[Resident 2B]

Although the models looked good for those of us who really like the snow, it is now a long shot, at best, for any moderate storm tomorrow. So, you do not need to spend any time today tuning up the snow blower.

The will be cold later this weekend and early next week. In addition, there is a lot of energy around and with the contrast in temperatures between the cold air and the relatively warm ocean, the area looks ripe for a storm. However, they just do not seem to be forming in an area that gives us the snow most of us want.

So the model driven forecast from earlier this week looks to be wrong, but there is potential for storms in the next 10 days, but nothing that can be specifically forecasted.

The weather news for the area will be the cold air for now.

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by SIKSUKR

I'm just stating what I think is in fact the almost impossible task of estimating snowfall amounts in certain locations in NE days in advance.

How right you are! New England has the most unpredictable weather in the world. While most places get their weather from one or two directions all the time, we're a rare spot in the fact that THREE major storm tracks intersect here, and a fourth one sometimes jumps into the action when storms decide to "retrograde" -- back in off the ocean instead of moving out normally ("The Perfect Storm" of 1991 did that.) We can get air masses originating from the North Pole, the Gulf of Mexico, the US Continent, and the North Atlantic - all in one day.

For that reason there is a study called AIRMAP which is run by UNH and supported by NOAA which is attempting to measure New Engand's patterns for the purpose of making a New England weather model (and air quality.) There are several AIRMAP sites in a South-North line, ascending in elevation, and one of them is at Castle Springs in Moultonborough.

Even this model, however, will never be perfect. Aside from needing "The initial state of the earth's atmosphere", all models also would need to account for the very TINY details that make a huge imact on the weather - like farm fields creating less friction on a storm system than buildings. Even if they did program that info into the models, what would happen when developers bought the fields? Now the multi-trillion dollar super-high resolution weather model needs to be updated by local planning boards (maybe not literally, but you get the point.)

Speaking of models, the latest run seems to be trending tomorrow's snow farther offshore... *sob*

Well at least it still looks like record cold for next week to thicken the ice and help make more snow at the ski areas. R2B the nice thing about being primed for a storm like this is that sooner or later, something's gotta give! Or at least that's how I like to think.

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

R2B the nice thing about being primed for a storm like this is that sooner or later, something's gotta give! Or at least that's how I like to think.

The gun is loaded and it is aimed. Mother Nature just does not want to pull the trigger, for some unknown reason.

You are correct! Sooner or later.......

Enjoy the cold and ice. It is much better than last year.

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

While VERY far off, do keep your eyes on next Saturday - that appears to be our next chance of a snowstorm. The latest 10-day GFS takes a storm from the TX panhandle across the Gulf Coast in the latter half of next week, then to the mid-Atlantic coast (DelMarVa) where it becomes very Nor'Easter-looking.

The way this winter has been going I would not be surprised if this, too, got shunted out to sea by the very heavy dome of cold air that has been in residence over us since mid-January. At the same time, the model does show the storm bringing a moderation of the cold air toward the end of the week (moderation meaning "normal cold" in this case.) At this point we (including anti-snow people) definitely do NOT want to see any rain try to move in here. The ground has been chilled beyond belief and this kind of cold air will not leave the lowest altitudes quickly if pushed. We're primed for a huge ice storm if warm/rain does try to surge back in here at some point.

For today... all models coming into agreement that tomorrow's storm is heading out to sea. NGM (aka "No-Good Model") seems to be the only one left showing a closer-to-the-coast track but even that one isn't very close.

The headline now should be the possibility of record cold for the first half of the coming week. After a couple days of near-normal winter temps starting (now), the extreme cold comes roaring back in here Sunday PM to the tune of daytime highs in the + single numbers and overnight lows below zero.

I would guess that the ski areas will benefit with more natural snow as the cold front passes through, followed by NW winds creating the localized "upslope drafts" to fuel those flakes - and who knows - maybe Winnipesaukee will see another Lake Erie squall survive the long trip to give us 3 or 4 inches, which happened Jan 20.

[Gatto Nero]

My small contribution for the Winni weather thread. This from PunxsutawneyPhil.com

Phil's official forecast as read 2/2/07 at sunrise at Gobbler's Knob:

El Nino has caused high winds, heavy snow, ice and freezing temperatures in the west.
Here in the East with much mild winter weather we have been blessed.

Global warming has caused a great debate.
This mild winter makes it seem just great.

On this Groundhog Day we think of one thing.
Will we have winter or will we have spring?

On Gobbler's Knob I see no shadow today.
I predict that early spring is on the way.

[NightWing]

http://channels.isp.netscape.com/new...&floc=NI-ne3:D

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

I would guess that the ski areas will benefit with more natural snow as the cold front passes through, followed by NW winds creating the localized "upslope drafts" to fuel those flakes - and who knows - maybe Winnipesaukee will see another Lake Erie squall survive the long trip to give us 3 or 4 inches, which happened Jan 20.

At the risk of jinxing CLA's call, although it may not be coming directly from Lake Erie, the upslope action looks real for this evening and tonight, as does the 3" to 4" range. This is different snow than the snow I was predicting for Friday. Light, powdery 25:1 stuff that will look great blowing around on the lake after the front passes.

Tough luck with the Groundhog!

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

Happy Groundhog Day. Jeremy Reiner on WHDH-7 (Boston) just announced that the groundhog has about a 40% accuracy record, but I think Al Roker on NBC-Today said it best this morning: "They have 200 TV camera lights - how can they tell if he saw his shadow?"

Now to today's weather in the Lakes Region. Temps have risen to the upper 20s on Black Cat Island, with winds blowing from the SW (warm & more humid direction.) Skies are cloudy and snow appears on the radar over PA/NY state moving NEward. Based on radar & models I think it'll get here around 7 pm and begin accumulating almost as soon as it starts.

The models are showing an average of .25 inch (liquid equiv.) for the state, with lower amounts near the MA border and higher amounts for the mountains. Average liquid-to-snow ratio seems to be about 20:1 for the state with 25:1 possible (as R2B mentioned) and maybe 15:1 for the MA border. If I were to play it conservative I'd use the 20:1 ratio and guess .30" liquid equiv for the Lakes Region, which comes out to 6 inches snowfall.

We also might see some minor mountain enhancement, like we saw from the Squams/Belknaps/Ossipees on Jan 20 when an "inch or less" was predicted but we ended up with 4 inches (our biggest "storm" this season.) Another factor is that the ground is very cold from recent weather and I don't think any snowflakes will be wasted in "priming" it for accumulation.

An outlying possibility continues to be a lake-effect snow band from Upstate NY surviving the trip to NH. NWS-Burlington is talking about possible thundersnow with the upcoming lake-effect event, which means powerful snow squalls that would have the potential to make that trip and add an inch to what we're already getting.

With all that said, I wouldn't be surprised if we did end up with a few spot-totals of 7 inches tonight, although I have a hard time imagining it given the way this winter has been. I know I'm going out on a limb... However, the trend this morning has been for "upped" totals as this thing approaches, so I'll forecast 4 to 7 inches for the Lakes Region, with any 7-inch amounts (if they occur) near the mountains, and the 4-inches around Laconia.

After this thing passes the headline becomes BRRRRRR! Monday looks to be the coldest day of next week and perhaps of the winter - I'll go with +3 for a high (on Black Cat Island), and windy too.

The last cold blast on January 26 gave Black Cat a daytime high of +4 with a low of -5 and temperatures were below zero for all but 3 hours of that day... and this one looks about the same or slightly cooler.

If you're planning anything in the mountains Sun-Tues, now's a good time to re-think: The summits will likely not rise above -10, with the highest summits even colder, and NW winds of 75+ mph above treeline.

CLA

[SIKSUKR]

I'll go with maybe 3".

[Resident 2B]

This has just been posted.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
219 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...SNOW FOR WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE TONIGHT...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A PERIOD OF SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.
THE SNOW MAY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME...VISIBILITIES
DURING THIS TIME WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY...AND TRAVELING COULD
BECOME VERY DIFFICULT LATER THIS EVENING.

BY THE TIME TO SNOW TAPERS OFF LATER TONIGHT...A GENERAL 3 TO 6
INCH SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
MAY CAUSE THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW TO BLOW BACK OVER TREATED ROADS.
IF YOU PLAN TO TRAVEL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BE READY FOR
WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS AND LEAVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME
TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION SAFELY.

MEZ012-018-019-NHZ004>006-009-010-030800-
/O.NEW.KGYX.SN.Y.0004.070203T0000Z-070203T0800Z/
SOUTHERN OXFORD-INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-
NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-BELKNAP-
STRAFFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RUMFORD...NORWAY...SOUTH PARIS...
MEXICO...FRYEBURG...OXFORD...NORTH WINDHAM...GORHAM...BRIDGTON...
NORTH CONWAY...CONWAY...LEBANON...HANOVER...PLYMOUTH...
WOLFEBORO...LACONIA...TILTON-NORTHFIELD...MEREDITH...ROCHESTER...
DOVER...DURHAM
219 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL HEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE BETWEEN 500 PM AND 800 PM. THE SNOW
MAY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES BETWEEN 800 PM AND 100 AM. AT THIS TIME...
VISIBILITIES DURING THIS TIME WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY...AND
TRAVELING COULD BECOME VERY DIFFICULT LATER THIS EVENING.

AFTER THIS...THE SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER. WINDS PICKING UP FROM
THE WEST LATER TONIGHT WILL CAUSE THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW TO BLOW
AROUND.

EXPECT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY THE TIME THE SNOW
TAPERS OFF LATER TONIGHT. IF YOU PLAN TO TRAVEL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BE READY FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS AND LEAVE
YOURSELF PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION SAFELY.

[CanisLupusArctos]

THE SNOW BEGINS...

Black Cat Island at 8:30 pm: Visibility is 1/4 mile in heavy snow, temp 26. Snow began just after 5:00 pm (earlier on the summits to the south of the lake, which went into the clouds around 4:00) and has accumulated 1.7 inches.

I just got back from Plymouth and the normally 25-minute ride took 50 minutes. Speeds on I-93 averaging 35 mph. **There were serious accidents occurring as I was driving - I witnessed a pickup truck off the road attended by Ashland FD, PD, and NHSP... also heard on the radio of others in the area, one in Laconia requiring jaws of life.

The National Weather Service has once again upped their predicted total for the Meredith area, for 3-7 inches.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Some folks may be traveling to see the long-awaited lake ice or to carve some freshies in the ski slopes tomorrow morning - Reports from around the area, anyone?

If you're new to this, feel free to share whatever weather info you have relevant to Winnipesaukee or the things we do here (like drive to the mountains to go skiing). Yes there are techies commenting here but you don't have to be one.

[Gatto Nero]

I just arrived from just south of the NH boarder after a 3 hour ride . It's just past midnight and I'd guess we have about 4" on the ground and still coming down lightly. With luck I'll be carving those freshies at 8:00 AM!

[SteveA]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

If you're new to this, feel free to share whatever weather info you have relevant to Winnipesaukee or the things we do here (like drive to the mountains to go skiing). Yes there are techies commenting here but you don't have to be one.

Ok... here is a slightly less scientific method. This is the KLBIFTBITF Gauge. (Kitty Litter Bucket I Forgot To Bring In This Fall Gauge)




I was going to use the PCTITB Gauge (Persian Cat Tossed Into The Backyard Gauge) But Yuki didn’t like the idea... at all!




Results – Here in Gilford Village.. Just over 5”

[Island Girl]

We got about 4-5 inches of fluffy stuff last night... it was just gorgeous out.

It is very windy this morning and the fluffy stuff is blowing around a bit..

Check out the ridge going from Rattlesnake to Diamond on the ice out page

www.rattlesnakecam.com/icein.htm


Be careful out there today!!!

IG

[CanisLupusArctos]

Really good guess, GN. At midnight my measured amount was the same as your eye-estimate: 4.3 inches. It continued snowing for a total of 4.9". When I called it into the National Weather Service they said the snow accumulation was actually getting knocked down due to a local ocean fetch that brought some maritime warmth/moisture yesterday afternoon and turned the first few hours of the snow to the heavy wet stuff (we had wind from the SE for a while but as soon as it calmed down, the snow went back to fluffy.)

Speaking of "Fluffy"... I love that new Persian cat method of snow measurement! The facial expression is priceless! (Does anyone else smell a new "priceless" Mastercard commercial here? What would it sound like?)

Nice shots, IG. Ice rifts make such interesting subjects.

For Today... winds are now picking up (gusting to 17 already, from the NW) and temps have already reached their high for the day and are on the way down to stay for several days - currently 18. Get those dry oaks ready for the fireplace, and eat some forbidden calories to keep warm! Blowing and drifted snow will be an issue in open areas today. Per forecast discussion from NWS-Gray, the storm-related snows are now outta here but the "upslope machine" is just getting going in the mountains, with 3-6 inches expected (depending on local topography) today.

For those going skiing or out on the lake, let us know how it was!

[codeman671]

I spent the day out on the ice yesterday by airboat and noted a major ridge starting at Governers Island out through the edge of the Witches and over to Lockes Island. From Lockes Island to the other side of Glendale there was another. One smaller ridge closer to Round Island was no issue. There was a lot of thin ice and open water around the ridges so anyone attempting to cross by sled should be extremely careful.

Overall ice conditions seemed fair at best. In the broads I am guessing 5-6 inches judging from the cracks that we checked, although we did not carry an auger with us. Also, the dock circulators just down from Glendale are wreaking havoc on the ice near the jet ski launch so those getting on at that point should be wary.

In general, use caution- I do not think it is as safe as some might like to believe.

A few images from yesterday:

[Lakegeezer]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

Some folks may be traveling to see the long-awaited lake ice or to carve some freshies in the ski slopes tomorrow morning - Reports from around the area, anyone?

If you're new to this, feel free to share whatever weather info you have relevant to Winnipesaukee or the things we do here (like drive to the mountains to go skiing). Yes there are techies commenting here but you don't have to be one.

We left at 6AM and got first run freshies in 4" of powdah at Attitash, but that mountain is in poor shape. A lot of trails are not open and under the powder, its bulletproof ice. Some trails have snowmaking ice whales - which wrecks the trail. The groomers just haven't done a good job. For another 40 minutes of driving, you can be at Sunday River - we went there last week and it was almost 100% open and had great conditions. Someone on the lift told us Attitash may be sold off later this year. From the lack of investments being made in blowing snow and grooming, it seems they are saving money for something.

[Resident 2B]

LG,

Thanks for the real story!

It is amazing the difference you get from real people compared to the reports the ski resorts email you.

I recieve the Attitash Winter Email on February 1st and this is copied from it:

The ATP Fly Zone is under construction, snowmaking continues to rage around the clock, snow is in the forecast and our exceptional fleet of groomers continue to lay down the best terrain possible each day. For the weekend we expect to have 41 trails including our new additions Wandering Skis, Inside Out, upper Myth Maker & upper Grand Stand....

It is great to get first hand information from someone who was there. My opinion is that until we get a real storm, the only effect from snowmaking and small storms is that it hides the ice for a few hours.

Thanks again,

R2B

[Gatto Nero]

Waterville was great. Hit the slopes at 8:00 for fresh tracks in 4" to 5". Didn't start getting skied off until about 11:00. By 1:30 it was 60% ice and about 40% fluffy mogles. I've been riding all winter but this was the first day my legs gave out before I got frustrated with the ice. Great day to be alive.

[Blue Thunder]

Originally Posted by Island Girl

Check out the ridge going from Rattlesnake to Diamond on the ice "out"(??) page

www.rattlesnakecam.com/icein.htm


IG

What's the difference between a rift and a pressure ridge??

BT

[Island Girl]

They are one in the same!

[Grant]

Here are a few shots of a long ridge that ran (unfortunately) from our dock clear across to Black Island last winter. I say "unfortunately" because it seems that the ice action at this intersection, much like the movement of tectonic plates, was ultimately responsible for our major dock damage.

http://www.pbase.com/gfevans/image/56052297

http://www.pbase.com/gfevans/image/56053611

http://www.pbase.com/gfevans/image/56052097

[CanisLupusArctos]

Aren't those also one in the same? Perhaps if there's enough ice on the mountain. Sounds like Attitash has gotten to that point - are you sure you weren't encountering pressure ridges on those slopes?

The ski reports are great!. It's good to know stuff like this so we won't waste our money or miss the best conditions of the year. As R2B said, sometimes its a world of difference between what "they" tell you and what their mountain actually has on it.


Today on assigment I went to a reunion dinner for Laconia High School's champion ski team of the 1950s. They had done some skiing at Gunstock today and said it was great.

According to the National Weather Service's tally of snowfall totals, Franconia Notch scored the jackpot of 7.5 inches (shared with Lost River.) Crawford Notch took home the silver, with 7.0. There were a few 6-inch amounts scattered around central NH but looks like 5 inches was a pretty common amount around the lake.

Here are a couple more pics from today. The expression on that persian cat still cracks me up!

[SteveA]

This is from todays Citizen. Interesting article on the effects of a warming climate on the local wildlife.

http://www.citizen.com/apps/pbcs.dll...136/-1/CITIZEN

[SIKSUKR]

Cannon Mt did have 6-8 inches of pow on Saturday morning.First freshies of the year at Cannon for me.It held up pretty well till 1 ish.Very hard under the fresh snow.Sunday was a nice cold sunny day but the snow seemed to have gone away over night.Mostly hard packed where the groomers had done there thing.At least it won't be melting this week!

[CanisLupusArctos]

...Something about *warming*? It's 6 degrees this morning and likely not going any higher than 10 today. The models show no end in the cold for at least a week... and storm-free.

However, global warming does remain real, (Thank you for bringing up that article, SteveA) even as the weather sometimes makes us forget that the climate is warming. Since people often ask: "Weather" is "today", and "climate" is "the long-term average." It's easy to dismiss reports that the climate has warmed by a degree or two because it seems insignificant (and in daily weather, it would be), but when we consider how many day-to-day readings are needed to raise a long-term average (climate) by that much, it becomes very significant.

Incidentally, if anyone is interested in locally-run studies of climate change and how it affects New Hampshire, UNH has an entire department devoted to it called the Climate Change Research Center. View its web page at http://ccrc.unh.edu/. Courses are available at the Durham campus, and many are available without having to apply to UNH.

[Resident 2B]

I have been looking into the weather 'crystal ball' a bit today and it is starting to look like we are in for a change around mid-month.

Now that we have a good cover of ice and the ice-fishermen are safe and happy, we should be getting back to more normal cold weather, not the 6 to 8 degree below normal tempatures we have been 'enjoying'. It will still be very cold until next Tuesday or so, but then it should moderate.

Now for the more interesting news. It is looking like we could get one or two shots at moderate or above snows from the 14th through the 21st. This is based upon jet stream forecasts and the warmer air trying to push its way back through the cold air.

At first, the very dry and cold air will be winning the battle and any moisture will dry up aloft, but around mid-week next week, we could see a noticable change. If this happens, as I feel it will, the ski areas will get enough cover for great conditions for the two vacation weeks ahead. The sled owners should be happy as well and the snow should help the ice by reflecting the much stronger sun we will start to see in the last half of February and in March. This should keep the ice safer, longer!

It looks to me like the groundhog was wrong this year and that we have a good amount of winter ahead.

Again, with every forecast, time will tell!

Enjoy winter while we have it. I am off to Daytona soon to watch the cars turn left.

R2B

[Merrymeeting]

Looking at the Merrymeeting webcam this morning, it sure looks cold! You can see snow (what little there is) swirling in the wind gusts. Brrr....

http://65.175.136.103/view/view.shtml

[CanisLupusArctos]

For those with fishing derby interests (especially those who aren't here yet)... the temp on Black Cat Island this morning bottomed out at 4 F and is now 11. It has not risen out of the teens for the past 4 days and won't today, either. Overnight lows have been in the single numbers for the past 7 nights and near or below zero for the past 4 nights. Winds have been steady from the NW (blowing from Center Harbor to Alton) all week, gusting to 40+ mph in snow squalls, and otherwise continue at 15-20 mph sustained. Wind chills out on the ice are much lower than the official readings taken on the mainland where the wind speeds are less.

The ice thickness between Black Cat and Three-Mile Island is 9 inches and varies. Most of it is clear black ice blown clear of snow by the wind, and areas of hard windpack snow exist. Use caution when walking on it or bring crampons... the ice is good for skating.

For the forecast, I see what R2B sees - more of the same through next week. The weekend temps may actually climb out of the teens and into the lower 20s but fall back to the single numbers at night. A snow flurry or snow squall is possible at any time... straying from the White Mountains or even from the well-publicized Lake Ontario event of epic proportions.

The extended outlook shows the chances for snowstorms that R2B mentioned yesterday but the first one (Wednesday) now looks like it will try to follow its predicessors out to sea south of us after whitening New Jersey and the "Del-Mar-Va." A couple of the models paint a snowstorm scenario for CT/RI/Cape Cod. This is subject to a lot of change since the "embryo" for the storm is still in the Pacific ocean where very few weather instruments can get any readings from it. When it passes over land-based weather stations this weekend the computer models will get a better idea of its intentions. In any case, the northwest flow on the backside of the storm will reinforce the cold air as it leaves the area on Thursday and intensifies in the Canadian Maritimes.

"Mountain effect" snow on NH's peaks should kick into a higher gear next week. As R2B mentioned the ski areas really need some natural snowcover to balance out the mostly-manmade bases they have. There are increasing chances for region-wide snowstorms after the 14th as he said, but even aside from those chances it's starting to look like conditions will become more favorable for mountain-effect snow. The ski areas have been getting some already, and a few of those squalls have strayed down to the big lake from time to time.

R2B, safe travels, and have fun watching those race cars make left turns. If you focus hard enough on them perhaps it will help make a similar pattern in the wind on New England's coast!

[Blue Thunder]

R2B and CLA,
Looks like the medium range models are bringing the potential storm up the coast for Tuesday-Wednesday. Is this just the normal flip flopping of models or is there some real potential?

5:45 update -Now the GFS has come around. Accuweather.com is using the "B" word. Let the hype begin!!

Blue Thunder

[wildwoodfam]

If the GFS is true to itself - tomorrow it will show the storm well out to see and south of us! The GFS flip flops more tha JFKerry did during his presidential run!

Don't get me wrong - I am routing for the snow storm - but I'll believe it when the snow starts falling on Tuesday evening.

[Resident 2B]

I do not trust the GFS in situations like this. However, there are other models that show the potential for a snowstorm. Some say it will be huge in the New England area and some have it going out to sea to the south of us.

NWS is stating in their technical forecast discussion that things are starting to come together. I have not checked the models myself because I am in Daytona watching the races and I do not have the time. The situation should be clearer tomorrow and Monday.

I hate to miss a big snow storm, but I am enjoying it here in Florida.

R2B

[Rose]

The 00Z runs of many weather models (GFS, WRF, GGEM, EC and NOGAPS) are in agreement that we will be affected by a Nor'easter on Valentine's Day. The differences between the models relate to the exact track, and thus the position of the rain/snow line along the coast (if one exists) and the amounts of snow inland. The morning discussion from the NWS in Taunton, MA implied that if the 00Z run of the GFS were to verify, we'd be measuring the snow in feet, not inches. I used a forecasting tool developed by the NWS in Buffalo (Bufkit) to look at totals, and sure enough, the 00Z GFS amounts for Bedford, MA ranged from 24 to 43 inches , with lesser amounts (but still well over a foot), for central Mass into central NH. The 06Z run of the GFS backed off on those totals (more in the 9 to 12 inches range). It'll will be interesting to see how this develops.

[Island Girl]

Glad to see you back here... I love your forecast... we can only hope...

If Bedford gets that much snow... my company will call off work.. Woo Hoo!!!!

IG

[wildwoodfam]

I do not know if this link can open, but the Blizzard is now on the "official" map for accuweather.

I know a lot of you enjoy accu weather's forecasts.

I am a tad more convinced today that we will at least be plowing some snow Wednesday and Thursday!!

Looks like a lot here in MA - slightly lesser amounts up at the lake.

[Blue Thunder]

Originally Posted by Rose

The 00Z runs of many weather models (GFS, WRF, GGEM, EC and NOGAPS) are in agreement that we will be affected by a Nor'easter on Valentine's Day. The differences between the models relate to the exact track, and thus the position of the rain/snow line along the coast (if one exists) and the amounts of snow inland. The morning discussion from the NWS in Taunton, MA implied that if the 00Z run of the GFS were to verify, we'd be measuring the snow in feet, not inches. I used a forecasting tool developed by the NWS in Buffalo (Bufkit) to look at totals, and sure enough, the 00Z GFS amounts for Bedford, MA ranged from 24 to 43 inches , with lesser amounts (but still well over a foot), for central Mass into central NH. The 06Z run of the GFS backed off on those totals (more in the 9 to 12 inches range). It'll will be interesting to see how this develops.

I was just thinking the other day when model discussion was at a frenzied pace...where's Rose??? I used to always love your level headed approach to prognostication. It's been at least a year hasn't it??

Blue Thunder

[Skip]

Originally Posted by Blue Thunder

I was just thinking the other day when model discussion was at a frenzied pace...where's Rose??? I used to always love your level headed approach to prognostication. It's been at least a year hasn't it??

Blue Thunder

Ad me to the "missing Ms. Rose" list too!

Glad to see you're back throwing petals to the wind, so to speak!

[Rose]

Originally Posted by Skip

Ad me to the "missing Ms. Rose" list too!

Glad to see you're back throwing petals to the wind, so to speak!

Thanks, Skip, for your kind words! You, and Island Girl and Blue Thunder have me all verklempt. Talk amongst yourselves. I'll give you a topic...how is it that Ralph Fiennes spells his name neither Rafe nor Fines...discuss!!!

It's all Resident2B and the CanisLupusArctos who have me excited about laying it all on the line about forecasting again, and I want to thank them for that. It's been a rather boring winter for forecasting so far. I'm not a huge fan of snow, but it's been sooooooooooooo boring, that I'm ready for a good blow.

I haven't had much of a chance to look at the 12Z (7 a.m) runs, but what I have seen shows rain mixing in everywhere after a 10-12 inch dump of snow. All I have to say is YUCK !!! Who wants rain after a good batch of snow?? This storm has been all over the place for the past few days...we'll just have to wait and see. I'll put my two cents worth in when I can. I have a couple of people at work who will lynch me if we don't get a good amount of snow out of this storm!!

[Resident 2B]

Rose,

I am sure it will snow because I am away in Florida. I like a few weeks in Florida, especially at the races in Daytona, but I love a good snow storm. Because I am away, I am sure it will snow.

I started to see this storm last Wednesday looking at models and tele-connections, and I posted it on this thread at this time. (See post #61) I am still learning about tele-connections and using them to forecast is an art. Joe Bastardi of Accu-weather is the absolute best at using these. He is usually way ahead of the models.

Looking at the models, they are coming closer together with storm track, but there are still differences. I feel it will go over Cape Cod and change to rain for a time Boston southward. Some models have it closer, but I think it will be over the Cape. However, the rapid deepening of the low, once it hits the ocean near the Virginia Capes, is likely to pull in cold air faster than the models are showing. If this happens and if the track is over Cape Cod, the Lakes Region gets a very big storm. That is what I think will happen, but we are still several days away. Big to me is feet, not inches.

On Feb 7th, I also thought there could be a storm in the around Feb 21st and although the first snow should be bigger, the second storm will be bigger than avarage. This would be inches, not feet.

Again, time will tell. It always does!

Welcome back Rose! Since this discussion inspired your return, all the credit goes to CLA who started this thread. I am enjoying the thread as much as you are.

It is great to read your forecasts again.

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

I'm so glad to see a thread with so many other weather nuts! Welcome, Rose. The last couple days I stayed busy with Fishing Derby photos out on the ice and didn't have time to check the models (a watched pot never boils)... plus, R2B is in Florida, so between his being away (jinxing himself) and my failure to watch the pot, perhaps it is about to boil!

I just had a quick look at the discussions from NWS-Taunton and Gray, and I see them mentioning QPF's of 3+ inches, which translates into "an awful lot of snow" as their night shift forecaster stated better than I could say myself. Sounds like all the models are on board with a track close to the coast, with three models even tracking it inland a little, but I agree with Gray's discussion that the models often do track New England's storms too far inland and fail to consider the localized coastal fronts that they often follow... AND that it's hard to imagine the storm barelling up against the arctic air we'll have on top of us at the time it arrives.

The only snow-limiting factor I can see happening, given this scenario, is the localized effect that messed me up slightly on the storm a week ago (forecast posted on this thread): Some ocean air did work its way into the mid-levels over the lake for just a few hours and changed the powder snow to the heavy sticky variety, and we also had a bit of freezing drizzle for a time. Instead of the 20:1 QPF-snow ratio we had more of the average 10:1... but even at 10:1, if (or wherever) the 3"+ QPF materializes it would be 30 inches of snow.

R2B did you say something about the Lake needing some snow to protect the ice from the strengthening sun? Good point. Blizzard or not, This should give us enough snow to do the trick. A postscript - the ice thickness between Black Cat and Three-Mile Islands is now 18 inches of crystal clear, solid ice. In my earlier measurement of 9 inches I'm guessing I was too close to a dock circulator (I thought I was far enough away...) but one of the ice fishermen measured it for me as I watched yesterday. This is very significant considering this part of the lake was open water exactly 21 days ago. Considering the thickness and quality of the ice, this upcoming snow could help the ice pack make up for the time it lost at the beginning of the season.

For those who don't know already, I have a bunch of links to my favorite weather images and text data at www.blackcatnh.com/weather - enjoy!

In the meantime it's bedtime - I'll resist the temptation to look at the models for now and wait 'til coffee time in a few more hours. That way if something of epic proportions really is materializing I'll have something I can reflexively spit at the screen.

[GWC...]

Being New England, this forecast must also be part of the speculation:


http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage...r&prodnav=none

[CanisLupusArctos]

This thing is too complicated. The GFS even shows a third low-pressure getting into the act way offshore which would take some strength away from the main system. Others are still producing only the 2 main Lows but enough flip-flopping on the issue of "track" to keep every forecaster on-edge. Us snow-starved snow-lovers are starting to get the facial expressions that Red Sox fans often assume when Big Papi has a chance to hit a walk-off homer.

In any case, any snowstorm greater than 5 inches would be the biggest of this winter so far at Winnipesaukee.

Some other climatological facts from Black Cat Island:

With some light snow falling this morning, this is the 5th consecutive day with snowfall recorded here. Snow has fallen on 15 of the last 17 days, but only producing 5.5 inches. February has given snowfall on all but one day so far, but most of it has been either a trace or 0.1" from squalls except the 4.8 inch storm we had 10 days ago.

Temp-wise, this morning marks 10 straight days with lows in the single numbers or lower. We have now been below freezing (32 F / 0 C) for the last 30 days. During that time the temp has only risen to 30 or 31 on 3 days, and 12 days have featured daytime maxes of 19 or lower.

In the wind department, we've had winds from the northwest for 10 straight days now, and on 15 of the last 20 days.

For anyone wondering, the snow falling at the lake this morning is not related to the Wednesday storm, and is part of the arctic cold blast moving in for tonight that will kick up those NW winds again and provide a couple more mornings in the single numbers, and at least another daytime high in the teens (tomorrow.)

CLA

[SIKSUKR]

Ok,in my opinion its still too early to predict snowfall amounts accurately from this storm.Having said that,I'll go with 10-12 inches in the lakes region.

[Resident 2B]

Per CLA, this is a tough one! That is for sure.

It does look like a stormy day on Wednesday; the question is how stormy and how much snow.

Complication the situation is the cold air, the warm ocean, storm intensity and the storm track. Four very interesting variables in this case.

There is cold air in place and the flow is bringing more in. However, the ocean is warm for this time of the year and if the path of the storm is inside of Cape Cod, there will be a more easterly flow at some levels and the warm water will have some impact. How intense and which center wins the phasing battle, if there is to be phasing, is a big question. Finally, somewhat related to phasing is the track of the dominent center.

Here is what I am thinking with the latest data in and a slow day at the track allowing time for such thinking. We have a very interesting 24 to 30 hours of weather starting after midnight Tuesday. I see this storm as a big mixer with white cake batter on one side representing the cold air and chocolate cake batter on the other side representating the warm air. It is looking like we will get some 'marble cake' as a result of turning the mixer on. This was suggested by Rose last evening. That is looking like a great call!

I think that there will be a fair period of rain along the coast, but a lot of it will be freezing rain. Inland, still mixing, but with less ice. I would not rule out rain with surface tempatures still in the mid 20's even in the Lakes Region. This will compress the snow keeping the storm more like and 8:1 that the 20:1 that the surface tempatures would suggest.

Bottom line is a very interesting event with a lot of snow at the beginning and the end, with a mix of something in the middle in the Winnipesaukee area.

It will get cold down here in Florida. The truck race on Friday night should see wind chill around 30 degrees. The grandstand should sheild the wind a bit, but it will be cold. I need to go buy a warmer jacket before the "good ole boyz" realize what the weather will be. Most of them freeze at about 50 degrees.

Below is Henry's latest map switching the red zone northward and westward.

Time will tell!

R2B

[SteveA]

Originally Posted by SIKSUKR

Ok,in my opinion its still too early to predict snowfall amounts accurately from this storm.Having said that,I'll go with 10-12 inches in the lakes region.

I'll clear off the top of the kitty litter bucket, and warn the cat.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by SteveA

I'll clear off the top of the kitty litter bucket, and warn the cat.

YES! Post some new pics of those 2 snow gauges - both the plastic one and the furry one!

[SteveA]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

YES! Post some new pics of those 2 snow gauges - both the plastic one and the furry one!

I'm totally lost with all the technical weather stuff.... but I really like this thread.... The Furry One is named Yuki.. I'm told it translates from Japanese to ... Snowball.. (how perfect is that)

PS If the snow really get's to more than 7” I’ll end up with a pissed off cat and a really pissed off wife…!

So… we’ll have to use the kitty litter bucket..

(Yes darling.. I told them…. Yuki will be fine up to about 7”…….. I promise…)

[CanisLupusArctos]

...There's your solution for measuring snow over Yuki's head! Get that cat a buddy! Then you can measure the snow in Yukies, whereby a snowstorm of Y1 is 7 inches or a "typical winter storm," Y2 = 14 inches or a good dumping of snow, Y3 = 21 inches or a very heavy once-in-a-few-years snowstorm, Y4 = an all-out blizzard of 28 inches, and Y5 = a return to the kind of winters they used to have when everyone's parents had to walk uphill through 10 feet of snow to get to AND FROM school.

On another note, this is the dryest air I've seen in a while - dewpoint dropping from -16 F, temp at +4 and dropping. Incredible considering we had almost T-shirt weather this afternoon (up to near freezing now feels like T-shirt weather!)

[Resident 2B]

Before I start, Steve A, is your new avatar taken from the new video: "How they Light a Fireplace on Governors Island"?

Getting to the weather, it is still looking like a good storm. Consensus of models seems to be holding just inside the benchmark of 40/70, that magical point out off the southeast New England coast that give us the best (most intense) storms when they track over that point. The GFS is still looking like a flatter, multiple-centered storm on the individual runs. This can reduce the snow amounts, but I do not think the GFS has a great handle on this.

CLA is right, the air is dry and it is cold. It could be the battle of the air masses that enhances the snow. Thunder snow?? Perhaps in a few places.

I just do not see the storm taking an inside track with such reinforced cold air well in place. If there is a warmer marine layer a mile or so up, it will mean sleet or freezing rain because the surface layer is likely to remain well below freezing.

I am going with almost 3" of liquid in total and a overall 8:1 ratio, one-and-a-half to two feet of white gold! Perhaps more in the White Mountains .

I am sorry I am missing it!

Time will tell!

R2B

[SIKSUKR]

CLA showed dewpoints of -16.Don't know where that was from but I can say they were even lower than that in northern NH.Whitefield was -22 F this morning.That's some cold entrenched air but as I have seen in the past,it doesn't take long to turn that around with a large coastal storm. Having said that,looks like I might have to up my estimate to 12-16 inches in the lakes region.I'm as giddy as a 3 year old at X-mas.I still wake up to watch the plow go by on my street in the middle of the night.Bring it on!!!

[SteveA]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

...There's your solution for measuring snow over Yuki's head! Get that cat a buddy! Then you can measure the snow in Yukies, whereby a snowstorm of Y1 is 7 inches or a "typical winter storm," Y2 = 14 inches or a good dumping of snow, Y3 = 21 inches or a very heavy once-in-a-few-years snowstorm, Y4 = an all-out blizzard of 28 inches, and Y5 = a return to the kind of winters they used to have when everyone's parents had to walk uphill through 10 feet of snow to get to AND FROM school.

Yuki already has all the buddies we can handle... Harley,Charley,Maya,Jada,CC,Lexi and Lucy...
Lexi and CC are 15 and 21 years old... so they would have to be a last resort..

If I had to use them would it be a...... (get ready) at CATagory 8 storm?

Someday we'll make the channel 9 news.... I can see it now.. neighbors being interviewed.. "They really seemed to be very normal people.."

[Gatto Nero]

All of the talking heads that I've seen on TV are saying 25"+ in the Lakes Region and north. Yee Hah

[Rose]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

Y1 is 7 inches or a "typical winter storm," Y2 = 14 inches or a good dumping of snow, Y3 = 21 inches or a very heavy once-in-a-few-years snowstorm

I'm forecasting a Y2 to Y2.6 in the Lakes Region.

[Island Girl]

Since I live near the hump of 495... how much will I get... also Concord MA where I work??? I selfishly want to know if work will be called off tomorrow!!!! Woo Hoo!!!!

[GWC...]

Originally Posted by Island Girl

Since I live near the hump of 495... how much will I get... also Concord MA where I work??? I selfishly want to know if work will be called off tomorrow!!!! Woo Hoo!!!!

Sharpen the old ice skates, if you do not have studded snow tires or chains...

[Rose]

Originally Posted by Island Girl

Since I live near the hump of 495... how much will I get... also Concord MA where I work??? I selfishly want to know if work will be called off tomorrow!!!! Woo Hoo!!!!

I'm forecasting 6-10" for Concord, MA and 8-12" for the hump. Of course, I'm ready to fall on my sword because this is one nasty storm to forecast what with warm air being wrapped around the storm at upper levels, leading to a mixed bag in places. And there's always those damn precipitation holes that seem to form whenever a Nor'easter is bombing out near us (and I'm usually under that hole ).

Just got the latest files in to run the Bufkit utility on. Looks like more mixing further inland in MA, so knock half a Yuki off the above estimates.

[CanisLupusArctos]

For those wondering, all my readings are taken from Black Cat Island unless otherwise noted. This morning the dewpoint bottomed out at -20 and the temp has yet to reach 10 degrees. We are at the day's high of 9 and it is 1:30 p.m. I'm looking forward to a Y2-Y3 level snowstorm (see previous posts about Yuki the cat!) If we all pray maybe it'll even become a Y4. A CATagory 8 storm would be more like the movie, "The Day After Tomorrow" I think!

Haven't had time to look at the models yet but will cast my bet when I do, sometime this afternoon. Wooo hoooo, this is fun! SIKSUKR, like you, I never outgrew watching the snowplow go by! I agree, R2B, a definite battle of the air masses is setting up. That dawned on me within 5 minutes of my waking up and turning on the TV. First we consider all the moisture that's getting sucked into the system from the Gulf of Mexico (This morning's headline on NBC News is a deadly--and rare--tornado that ripped through New Orleans last night.) Then we look at the air mass it's going to be battling (by checking our own thermometers, pressure, and dewpoint readings right here in NH) and we see it's almost a battle of North Pole air vs. Equator air. Thundersnow? Good call. Something I've always wanted to see is a snow-nado! Then we could call it a Y5-F5!

The immediate project for this afternoon is getting my new weather station online alongside the Winni WeatherCam. I've had it for a few weeks and there's nothing like an impending snowstorm to provide motivation. Everything physical is installed, now just a matter of CLA vs. the Software.

Here's a shot from the WxCam this morning - "Red Sky in the Morning, Sailor's Warning..."

[boathousegirl]

Not to be intrusive, but do you live on Black Cat Island in the winter???? If you do, I'm awestruck. Good for you!

[boathousegirl]

Forgive my ignorance, Black Cat is a bridged island. Next time I'll do some research before I ask the question. Sorry about that!

[Merrymeeting]

Originally Posted by Island Girl

I selfishly want to know if work will be called off tomorrow!!!! Woo Hoo!!!!

IG, can I come work with you? Where I work all it means is that you can start earlier and end later because you don't have communte time! As long as the phone lines and comcast are online, work doesn't shut down anymore.

[Gatto Nero]

CLA,

I'm looking forward to checking out the time lapse section of your web cam tomorrow so I can watch the snow pile up. Is there anyway to save a more than the normal number of pictures for that so we can watch the whole day?

For those of you that don't know what I am talking about check this out this very cool feature.

http://www.blackcatnh.com/timelapse.html

[Lakegeezer]

Originally Posted by Gatto Nero

CLA,

I'm looking forward to checking out the time lapse section of your web cam tomorrow so I can watch the snow pile up. Is there anyway to save a more than the normal number of pictures for that so we can watch the whole day?

For those of you that don't know what I am talking about check this out this very cool feature.

http://www.blackcatnh.com/timelapse.html

Very cool view. How is it done?

[Island Girl]

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

IG, can I come work with you? Where I work all it means is that you can start earlier and end later because you don't have communte time! As long as the phone lines and comcast are online, work doesn't shut down anymore.

Many people at my company do not have outside access... so they have to let all of us not work when they call it off for the day!!! Then again some of us do some work anyway... since I work at home 2 days a week .. I try not to abuse the situation too much.... and my boss has a place in Alton region and is probably reading this!!!

Come on folks... dance with the Babes!!!

[WINDinmySOCKIES]

This is my first post although I have been hanging out for awhile. Just wanted to say Hello, and wish I was there for the coming snow, but I missed it by a week. Wanted to let all the weather nuts like myself know that I am
one hour northwest of phila, PA, and your snow is on the way,. It has been snowing pretty good here for a couple of hours now, with unfortunately some heavy sleet mixing in now. Hope to get up next weekend to play in the snow.
Hope you all enjoy...its been a long wait! Be safe... I am going to figure out fun activities for an ice storm....which is what we're getting 2-mmorrow!

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by Gatto Nero

CLA,

I'm looking forward to checking out the time lapse section of your web cam tomorrow so I can watch the snow pile up. Is there anyway to save a more than the normal number of pictures for that so we can watch the whole day?

For those of you that don't know what I am talking about check this out this very cool feature.

http://www.blackcatnh.com/timelapse.html

Got ya covered. I've been saving the images in a snowstorm folder on my desktop since sunrise Tuesday. At the end of the storm I'll put them all together into one long time-lapse of the storm. To see an example of this, look in www.blackcatnh.com/archive.html and click the link to the "snow squalls time lapse" (or whatever I called it.. can't remember...). That's from one of the snow squalls we had last week.

Now as for how it's done... I got the idea from someone else's web cam in the midwest, and googled it to see how it's done. It brought me to a site about how to create animations using a string of JPG images and java code. I had to teach myself the Java code and customize it for my purposes. You can do it too - all you need is a web cam that keeps a rotating archive of images on your web server.

On the weather end of things, temps topped out at 14 today with a low of -1, and we're just waiting for the snow now. The dewpoint is gradually coming up and currently stands at -10 with air temp of +10. The radar shows a lot of snow falling over us now, but it is not reaching the ground because it is evaporating into the extremely dry air above us. When the intensity picks up it will finally break through to ground level, and then.... watch out.

The National Weather Service has upped the storm total for the lakes region to: 1-3 inches by morning, 12-18 inches during the day, and 6-10 inches tomorrow night... with winds of 40 mph possible. I still haven't looked at the models because I been wrestling with my weather station's networking connection to try to get that bad boy online in time for the storm! I'm a few steps closer than I was earlier (got it to upload data from earlier today) but still can't get the "LIVE DATA" element going. And now I'm yawning. Oh well. Better luck after morning coffee.

[gtxrider]

I just took a quick look at several webcams is that snow I see? The B.O.S. seem to gotten the 2 step fiqured out!


We have a mess here in Joisey.