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Old 11-27-2021, 02:31 PM   #1
trfour
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Exclamation How variants like omicron develop

and what makes them variants 'of concern'.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/variant...ncern-rcna6798

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/f...gners-rcna6858
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Last edited by trfour; 11-28-2021 at 10:16 AM.
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Old 11-27-2021, 03:39 PM   #2
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The only thing we know for sure is those all infected have been fully vaccinated


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Old 11-27-2021, 05:10 PM   #3
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Default The new variant appears to be spreading most quickly among those who are unvaccinated

Quote:
Originally Posted by WinnisquamZ View Post
The only thing we know for sure is those all infected have been fully vaccinated
Hard to understand where you get that information.
https://www.necn.com/news/national-i...icron/2624663/
The new variant appears to be spreading most quickly among those who are unvaccinated

We’re seeing a marked change in the demographic profile of patients with COVID-19,” Rudo Mathivha, head of the intensive care unit at Soweto’s Baragwanath Hospital, told an online press briefing.

“Young people, in their 20s to just over their late 30s, are coming in with moderate to severe disease, some needing intensive care. About 65% are not vaccinated and most of the rest are only half-vaccinated,” said Mathivha. “I’m worried that as the numbers go up, the public health care facilities will become overwhelmed.”

A key factor is vaccination. The new variant appears to be spreading most quickly among those who are unvaccinated. Currently, only about 40% of adult South Africans are vaccinated, and the number is much lower among those in the 20 to 40-year-old age group.

From the NBCNEWS story posted,
"The major concerns are that this variant seems to be at least as transmissible as delta, which is very transmissible indeed, and it has a large number of mutations in the crucial spike protein, which is targeted by vaccines," Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard University, said in an email.

"This raises the concern that it might be capable of side-stepping the immunity generated by vaccines," he warned.

Still, he said, as it stands, "we really have very little data ... as yet on exactly how transmissible it is in highly vaccinated populations, let alone on the sort of disease it causes in folks with prior immunity."

Jinal Bhiman, principal medical scientist at National Institute for Communicable Diseases of South Africa, said a key aspect of concern in South Africa, where there is a relatively low vaccination rate, is Bhiman suggested the variant was potentially "evading other immunity responses from other variants," she said.that those who have already been infected by the delta variant appear to be getting reinfected with the new variant.

Bhiman suggested the variant was potentially "evading other immunity responses from other variants," she said.

Still, she said that theory was based on early data, adding it was too soon to say what the variant's impact will be.
-------------------------

So, the reason this variant is so concerning is the unknown effect vaccinations have on it. And in South Africa, so few are vaccinated there is little data known currently on what the impact will be on vaccinated people. Certainly, the spread in SA is in UNVACCINATED people mostly. The immunity from a previous delta variant does not protect from this one, but then it has always been said the current vaccinations are far better and more protective than the weak/limited immunity from a previous infection so that is not surprising, and does not indicate what vaccination protection may exist.

Certainly, "those all infected have been fully vaccinated" is far from reality in a mostly unvaccinated South Africa.
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Old 11-27-2021, 05:15 PM   #4
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https://www.foxnews.com/health/dutch...-test-positive
My understanding is to fly in Europe and the Netherlands you must be vaccinated. So the assumption indicates fully vaccinated


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Old 11-27-2021, 08:13 PM   #5
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Bad assumption. You can have a negative test 72 hours before take-off as also qualifying. SA reports only 24 percent of the population being vaccinated.

We also don't know if the new variant has a greater degree of breakthrough...

“The patients are mostly complaining about a sore body and tiredness, extreme tiredness and we see it in the younger generation, it’s not the older people... We’re not talking about patients that might go straight to a hospital and be admitted,” Coetzee was quoted saying. Only about 24 percent of the population is fully vaccinated in South Africa.''
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Old 11-27-2021, 08:38 PM   #6
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With the information know today, all positives are fully vaccinated. And vaccinations are required to fly, so how is this a bad assumption?


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Old 11-27-2021, 09:18 PM   #7
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As I posted. They are not required to be vaccinated. They are required to show a negative PCR test taken less than 72 hours before departure.

I can be clean three days ago when I tested, and positive when I leave.

You are also only looking at cases caught after leaving South Africa were it is running rampant according to the WHO and they are not a highly vaccinated country.

So you have made a bad assumption.
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Old 11-29-2021, 06:06 PM   #8
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WHO warns omicron poses 'very high' global risk as variant spreads.


https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/w...-risk-rcna6892
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