Labor shortage, really?

[mswlogo]

Sorry for the click bait subject.

There has been a lot of discussion about the impact of labor shortage around the lakes and thought folks would find this informative.

I received it in a Daily NYTimed email.

It probably applies more to big cities but I’m sure some of it applies to lakes regions.

Also I don’t care to get into politics but universal health care would solve so many problems for small businesses. It puts so much burden on small companies to have to deal with health care. And large companies pull stunts like below because we lack it.

————————————————————————————

Wait it out
Brenda Garcia, who works at a Chipotle in Queens, has a problem that may sound surprising in today’s tight labor market. She is a part-time employee who wants more work, but the restaurant keeps assigning her less than 20 hours a week.

“It’s not enough for me,” Garcia told my colleague Noam Scheiber. “They’re not giving me a stable job.”

Garcia is one of millions of Americans who want an established, full-time work schedule and are struggling to find it, as Noam explains in a Times article. As a result, these part-timers struggle with not only low pay but also uncertain shifts that can change at the last minute, disrupting the rest of their lives. The workers can obviously quit, but they often find that the other jobs available to them have similar problems.

How could this be when the country is in the midst of a labor shortage in which employers are struggling to fill jobs? Because executives at many companies have decided that part-time work is too important to abandon just because the labor market is temporarily tight.

Part-time work allows companies to hold down labor costs in two crucial ways. First, companies can reduce their benefit costs because part-time workers often do not receive health care and retirement benefits. Second, companies can change staffing levels quickly, to meet demand on a given day or week, rather than having workers sit idle during slower periods.

“It’s very deeply embedded in employers’ business models,” Noam — who covers workers and the workplace from Chicago — told me. “They’re incredibly reluctant to give it up, even if it means enduring labor shortages and elevated turnover in the short and intermediate term. Basically, they think it makes more economic sense to wait out the current shortages than to fundamentally change their labor model.”

That may well be a rational decision for individual businesses. The shift toward flexible, part-time and often outsourced work is a major reason that corporate profits have risen in recent decades. After-tax corporate profits have accounted for more than 7 percent of national income in recent years, up from an average of 5.6 percent from the 1950s through the 1970s, according to the Commerce Department.

If employers shift away from part-time work during a tight labor market like today’s, they worry they will be stuck with higher labor costs for years. “Employers will typically try everything else first — raising wages, offering bonuses and other financial incentives, giving part-timers more hours temporarily,” Noam explains. “All these measures are reversible, and presumably will be reversed once the labor shortages subside.”

[dickiej]

This has to do with the skewed concept of entry level, unskilled , minimum wage jobs. Traditionally, these jobs were meant as part time for students and retirees. They were never meant as full time, liveable wage jobs. But recently, there has been a shift towards expecting a McDonalds job to be life sustaining. This is just unrealistic. If you want a liveable wage job, improve your life….go to school and better your education….get skilled training…but to expect to be able to pay rent, utilities, buy food, etc. etc. by flipping burgers is not attainable.

[garysanfran]

Every time I hear...

"How can you raise a family of four on minimum wage"? I cringe...

Well, you can't, and should not have a family of four+ if you can't afford to support them.

The importance of working to get an education adequate enough to get an adequate paying job to raise a family, should be more important than the entitlement that is being taught too often.

[posas]

someone said "poverty is our most expensive luxury"

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by dickiej

This has to do with the skewed concept of entry level, unskilled , minimum wage jobs. Traditionally, these jobs were meant as part time for students and retirees. They were never meant as full time, liveable wage jobs. But recently, there has been a shift towards expecting a McDonalds job to be life sustaining. This is just unrealistic. If you want a liveable wage job, improve your life….go to school and better your education….get skilled training…but to expect to be able to pay rent, utilities, buy food, etc. etc. by flipping burgers is not attainable.

With all due respect--the post said nothing about livable wage or even wages in general. The issue described was work schedules and advance notice. I understand employers wanting to minimize wages, and jobs for high school kids are great. I'm with you on that stuff.

But when these places won't give predictable schedules in situations that are reasonably predictable, they're really treating workers poorly. I had both restaurant and catering jobs when I was a kid. I understood readily that the caterer could not provide a definite schedule, but the restaurant sure could

[WinnisquamZ]

Unemployment is at record lows. If a individual doesn’t like their job then leave it for another. Don’t understand one’s concern here.


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[Descant]

OMG! The NY Times? Time to cancel that and subscribe to something from a successful city, the Miami Herald or the Houston Chronicle.

I don't see that universal health care has much to do with Ms. Garcia's issues. She just needs to get a second part time job and work her way up.

Longer discussion: Both laborers and employers treat labor as
a commodity, even though they may not recognize it a s such.

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by Descant

OMG! The NY Times? She just needs to get a second part time job and work her way up.

Longer discussion: Both laborers and employers treat labor as
a commodity, even though they may not recognize it a s such.

Agree with the last part, but the problem with practice of always scheduling people at the last minute is that it prevents those people from working the second job you suggest--they never know when either employer will want them, so they cannot commit to a total of, say, 40 hours. Or for high school/college kids, they cant commit to other activities. My daughter had a retail job like this--it was miserable. She was lucky enough to be able to walk when treated like a commodity

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by mswlogo

Sorry for the click bait subject.

There has been a lot of discussion about the impact of labor shortage around the lakes and thought folks would find this informative.

I received it in a Daily NYTimed email.

It probably applies more to big cities but I’m sure some of it applies to lakes regions.

Also I don’t care to get into politics but universal health care would solve so many problems for small businesses. It puts so much burden on small companies to have to deal with health care. And large companies pull stunts like below because we lack it.

————————————————————————————

Wait it out

Brenda Garcia, who works at a Chipotle in Queens, has a problem that may sound surprising in today’s tight labor market. She is a part-time employee who wants more work, but the restaurant keeps assigning her less than 20 hours a week.

“It’s not enough for me,” Garcia told my colleague Noam Scheiber. “They’re not giving me a stable job.”

Garcia is one of millions of Americans who want an established, full-time work schedule and are struggling to find it, as Noam explains in a Times article. As a result, these part-timers struggle with not only low pay but also uncertain shifts that can change at the last minute, disrupting the rest of their lives. The workers can obviously quit, but they often find that the other jobs available to them have similar problems.

How could this be when the country is in the midst of a labor shortage in which employers are struggling to fill jobs? Because executives at many companies have decided that part-time work is too important to abandon just because the labor market is temporarily tight.

Part-time work allows companies to hold down labor costs in two crucial ways. First, companies can reduce their benefit costs because part-time workers often do not receive health care and retirement benefits. Second, companies can change staffing levels quickly, to meet demand on a given day or week, rather than having workers sit idle during slower periods.

“It’s very deeply embedded in employers’ business models,” Noam — who covers workers and the workplace from Chicago — told me. “They’re incredibly reluctant to give it up, even if it means enduring labor shortages and elevated turnover in the short and intermediate term. Basically, they think it makes more economic sense to wait out the current shortages than to fundamentally change their labor model.”

That may well be a rational decision for individual businesses. The shift toward flexible, part-time and often outsourced work is a major reason that corporate profits have risen in recent decades. After-tax corporate profits have accounted for more than 7 percent of national income in recent years, up from an average of 5.6 percent from the 1950s through the 1970s, according to the Commerce Department.

If employers shift away from part-time work during a tight labor market like today’s, they worry they will be stuck with higher labor costs for years. “Employers will typically try everything else first — raising wages, offering bonuses and other financial incentives, giving part-timers more hours temporarily,” Noam explains. “All these measures are reversible, and presumably will be reversed once the labor shortages subside.”

This coming season it is hopeful that the labor shortage will have a smaller impact than the previous 2 seasons.

There are 4 local businesses in the area that have purchased rundown motels for renovation to providing housing for workers who are coming from outside the US.


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[WinnisquamZ]

Originally Posted by joey2665

This coming season it is hopeful that the labor shortage will have a smaller impact than the previous 2 seasons.

There are 4 local businesses in the area that have purchased rundown motels for renovation to providing housing for workers who are coming from outside the US.


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Good for business. Working model for the cape and islands. Many old timers don’t want admit, but this area is no longer a manufacturing area. It is a retirement and tourist economy


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[chachee52]

Originally Posted by dickiej

TIf you want a liveable wage job, improve your life….go to school and better your education….get skilled training…but to expect to be able to pay rent, utilities, buy food, etc. etc. by flipping burgers is not attainable.

so, I'll bite a little.
So my wife has a Masters degree and teaches and still gets paid less than a friend that does work at a fast food restaurant and no education.
I have a doctorate and have a couple friends that have lower education or no college education and get paid more.
So not sure where the "go to school and better your education" can help in some cases. Also, this is not me, but how do you suggest them paying for a better education if they can't get hours to pay the bills? My sister-in-law did go to college to "better herself" and now has tons of debt from college that she can't afford to pay off with the job that she did go to college for.
Its a viscous circle. I will not comment on that article because there is a lot left out of the situation. But I agree something has to change and not sure how or what needs to. I don't have the answers. My statement was merely just another way to look at things. Honestly your damned if you do and damned if you don't.

[dickiej]

Life is hard for everyone...and we all make choices....you're right, a masters degree should pay significantly more, but that's a topic for another day. I. Today's world, you need to make career choices based on opportunities and pay scale. I know a guy who is an underwater welder. He travels around the world working on large building projects. He has a high school education but makes $225,000/yr. He picked his profession based on opportunities and pay.

[TiltonBB]

Originally Posted by dickiej

Life is hard for everyone...and we all make choices....you're right, a masters degree should pay significantly more, but that's a topic for another day. I. Today's world, you need to make career choices based on opportunities and pay scale. I know a guy who is an underwater welder. He travels around the world working on large building projects. He has a high school education but makes $225,000/yr. He picked his profession based on opportunities and pay.

Making education choices based on future employment is a good start. I have a cousin who got a degree in Ancient European History and she complains about her employment opportunities.

Picking a career that pays enough to pay off your student loans is a good choice too. If you go into something like teaching, enjoy the hours and extensive vacation time, it doesn't make sense to complain about the wages in the position you choose.

Again, it comes down to supply and demand. There is a nationwide truck driver shortage and Walmart is now starting drivers at $90,000 per year. You can get Class A license in 4 weeks and go to work. Because of the shortage of Registered Nurses those wages have increased significantly faster than the cost of living.

My flying instructor (1996) is a Jet Blue Captain, with an Associates Degree and no student loans. He makes over $300,000 a year.

It is all about choices but the opportunities are there.

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

Making education choices based on future employment is a good start. I have a cousin who got a degree in Ancient European History and she complains about her employment opportunities.

Picking a career that pays enough to pay off your student loans is a good choice too. If you go into something like teaching, enjoy the hours and extensive vacation time, it doesn't make sense to complain about the wages in the position you choose.

Again, it comes down to supply and demand. There is a nationwide truck driver shortage and Walmart is now starting drivers at $90,000 per year. You can get Class A license in 4 weeks and go to work. Because of the shortage of Registered Nurses those wages have increased significantly faster than the cost of living.

My flying instructor (1996) is a Jet Blue Captain, with an Associates Degree and no student loans. He makes over $300,000 a year.

It is all about choices but the opportunities are there.

Exactly. If a person loves Ancient History, a PhD can be a wonderful thing to do. But very few of those folks are able to get financial compensation for their degree. For any sort of graduate school, you really need to do the math up front.

A bachelor's degree is a bit different, even if many of them are extraordinarily expensive today. We might debate whether it's needed to do a particular job, but there's no question it is the price of admission for a huge number of careers

[thinkxingu]

I don't want to live in a world where education is only valued if it's "practical."

In fact, I think that's one of the instrumental failures we're seeing currently in America.

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[John Mercier]

This up coming season will actually be worse.

It will take a while for the FED to take the heat out of the economy. We thought higher prices would do it... but it doesn't seem to be changing people's mindset.

Basically the same pattern as 2007.

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

I don't want to live in a world where education is only valued if it's "practical."

In fact, I think that's one of the instrumental failures we're seeing currently in America.

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I agree, and I did not mean to suggest otherwise. I was happy to support my kids as they chose "impractical" paths. I would not want to live in a world where careers are only valued based on money.

Although I do think a liberal arts education, that some would describe as impractical, is actually very practical--it teaches a person how to understand, think about, and analyze complex situations.

[John Mercier]

I think more so.
In a sense, it allows them to seek out the career path that will make them happy.

Especially if they didn't spend their time in secondary school doing that.

[mcdude]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

Picking a career that pays enough to pay off your student loans is a good choice too. If you go into something like teaching, enjoy the hours and extensive vacation time, it doesn't make sense to complain about the wages in the position you choose.

It is all about choices but the opportunities are there.

I chose a career in "teaching". No complaints here. I worked hard, continued in grad school at night until I was 40. Earned two advanced degrees which puts you a few notches up in the salary scale. I paid a significant amount into a pension plan for 30 years. I now have a comfortable retirement lifestyle. I contributed something back to society and that has to count for something too.

[dickiej]

Thread got a little off topic, but interesting points for the young. First of all, you have to be happy with what you do for work….the world is full of miserable rich people. Trust me, I’ve met lots of them. So don’t pick a career just for the money.
Secondly, don’t live above your means….you can be happy in a 1,000 square foot home. A big house and expensive car will not make you happy. If you have wealthy friends that you compare yourself to, get poorer friends. But the original topic was about part time, entry level work….if you don’t find something that makes you happy and can pay for your lifestyle, you are doomed to a life of shi**y jobs and shi**y apartments. It’s a big world…explore it and find something you truly enjoy.

[John Mercier]

I think the missed point of the article is that when the workers find better options, that restaurant is gone. Local management has taken the short view.

[winterh]

Although I do think a liberal arts education, that some would describe as impractical, is actually very practical--it teaches a person how to understand, think about, and analyze complex situations.[/QUOTE]

Colleges have changed quite a bit. At one time you may have been correct about a liberal arts degree but not anymore. The progressive woke have destroyed the humanities and liberal arts. The last thing the degree does is teach a person to "understand, think about and analyze complex situations"

I told my kids I will pay for college but you will major in something that will get you a good paying job. If you have interests in some esoteric subject there are many ways to learn about it without paying 300k.

[dickiej]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

I think the missed point of the article is that when the workers find better options, that restaurant is gone. Local management has taken the short view.

That circles back to my original point…restaurant entry level jobs are , by design, part time, low paying jobs for students and retirees.

[John Mercier]

Not if you want the restaurant to stay open.
A lot of restaurants around here had to cut back hours and even close for the season because they couldn't find help.

Help - Labor - want full time year round with benefits... and have plenty of options.

I have a feeling that the complaining from Garcia falling on deaf ears of the local management will be solved... when another ''low wage entry job'' manager decides that keeping their restaurant open should be their major concern and offers her a full time job with benefits.

[chachee52]

Originally Posted by dickiej

Thread got a little off topic, but interesting points for the young. First of all, you have to be happy with what you do for work….the world is full of miserable rich people. Trust me, I’ve met lots of them. So don’t pick a career just for the money.
Secondly, don’t live above your means….you can be happy in a 1,000 square foot home. A big house and expensive car will not make you happy. If you have wealthy friends that you compare yourself to, get poorer friends. But the original topic was about part time, entry level work….if you don’t find something that makes you happy and can pay for your lifestyle, you are doomed to a life of shi**y jobs and shi**y apartments. It’s a big world…explore it and find something you truly enjoy.

I cant agree more. I love what I do, but would not recommend younger people to get into the field mainly because of the schooling and the loans. Just not worth it. I was lucky in that I got into it before things got too crazy.

[The Real BigGuy]

Just remember that at today’s rates 4 years of undergrad tuition at UNH is going to generate student loan payments of +/- $1000/month for 30 yrs. It’s tough for a kid getting out of school with a $75,000/yr job (before taxes) to stroke those payments, pay rent, pay for a car, pay utility bills, buy food, save for a down payment on a house, and have any kind of life today.

I only wish it was as easy as a lot of us are making out to be.


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[Descant]

Originally Posted by The Real BigGuy

Just remember that at today’s rates 4 years of undergrad tuition at UNH is going to generate student loan payments of +/- $1000/month for 30 yrs. It’s tough for a kid getting out of school with a $75,000/yr job (before taxes) to stroke those payments, pay rent, pay for a car, pay utility bills, buy food, save for a down payment on a house, and have any kind of life today.

I only wish it was as easy as a lot of us are making out to be.

I have to question the example. It wasn't long ago that the NH average loan was about $32000. My son graduated a few years ago with $82000 in loans after grad school. Lived at home for awhile, and drove a cash paid clunker although car dealers were willing to finance a new car. You can buy a primary residence for very low money down, so he bought a three family and lived rent free. Loans were paid in a few years. I know how he struggled (worked 60-80 hours a week) and I know how unfair it would be for the government to pay off or forgive loans for others who aren't willing to make the sacrifices. You want tuition benefits? Join the army. His undergrad was at Colby College in Maine. Retail is about $60K. They do grants, no loans. If your family income is less than $60K, you pay nothing. If less than $150K, max of $15K a year . (Your mileage may vary) What's the catch? There are more than 10 applicants for each seat in the freshman class. There are other schools with similar programs.

[sky's]

There’s another part to this equation that as a small business owner I’ve been hit with a few times. It’s called the "Entitlement generation”.
I had one person come to me that has worked for me for about 3 years then he went own his own and came back to help out on a huge project we currently have going on. So I said lets work something out full time. His response I get 65.00 per hour and I don’t work Fridays. I sat back held my words and went about my business. Building and remodeling business doesn’t pay that kind of money and to say I don’t work Fridays. Guess what not with me period. The point is and this is a huge part of what’s happening now the ENTILTEMENT GENERATION. Those are the facts. When I was young I was thrilled to have a job taught you about responsibilities, maturity etc not how much are you paying me?

[thinkxingu]

Before we go on condemning today's youth for being entitled, lazy, etc. I would like to get two things clear:

1. Whatever today's youth is is a reflection of the parenting and culture before them.

2. The ability to achieve what our parents and grandparents did is just simply not the same. Anyone who says so is either ignorant or being willfully ignorant.

Members' stories of attribution bias may proceed.



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[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

Before we go on condemning today's youth for being entitled, lazy, etc. I would like to get two things clear:

1. Whatever today's youth is is a reflection of the parenting and culture before them.

2. The ability to achieve what our parents and grandparents did is just simply not the same. Anyone who says so is either ignorant or being willfully ignorant.

Members' stories of attribution bias may proceed.



Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Agreed. Staying away from my own biased stories--the two gigantic differences are the prices of education and real estate in inflation adjusted dollars. Wages have not kept up with either, and this creates a dramatically different landscape for 20-30 somethings today than we faced 20-50 years ago

[MeredithMan]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

Before we go on condemning today's youth for being entitled, lazy, etc. I would like to get two things clear:

1. Whatever today's youth is is a reflection of the parenting and culture before them.

2. The ability to achieve what our parents and grandparents did is just simply not the same. Anyone who says so is either ignorant or being willfully ignorant.

Members' stories of attribution bias may proceed.



Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Think: as usual, you are spot on in your assessment. The 20 and 30-somethings who are now espousing "fairness", "income equality" and according to some news stories, believe Socialism is the way to go, are the little kids from years ago who were told on the soccer field that "everyone gets a trophy"; "no one loses"; and "we don't keep score". I witnessed that when my kids, (now mid 20's), were playing sports at a young age. That philosophy of "everything has to be fair and no one loses" has come home to roost in a big way.

While I always enjoyed Joe Rogan as a stand-up comedian, he's gone a little off the rails as a Social Commentator. However, he did make a lot of sense in one of his broadcasts where he stated, in effect, we don't have income inequality, we have effort inequality. If you work multiple jobs or take overtime or extra shifts, you should make more money. If you're really smart and invent some new technology, you should make gobs of money. If you sit on your a__ and think the world owes you a living, you should be poor.

When I was in my 20's, I remember my father, (WW II generation), saying, "I'm glad I'm not just starting out like you right now..." Now, almost 40 years later, I have said those same words to my kids.

[Seaplane Pilot]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

Before we go on condemning today's youth for being entitled, lazy, etc. I would like to get two things clear:

1. Whatever today's youth is is a reflection of the parenting and culture before them.

2. The ability to achieve what our parents and grandparents did is just simply not the same. Anyone who says so is either ignorant or being willfully ignorant.

Members' stories of attribution bias may proceed.



Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Attribution bias? Is that like confirmation bias, but not really? Where do you guys come up with all these clichés? My father's solution to all of this was "Get off your ass and get a job".

[John Mercier]

It will take a lot more than a job.
Garcia is looking to do two jobs... her problem isn't the willingness to work.

I had two jobs when I was younger, then I found a company that would allow me to do unlimited overtime as long as I didn't violate any labor laws.

Even today, no debt... and plenty of excess... I still work six days per week.

[Harry Heffalump]

Originally Posted by sky's

There’s another part to this equation that as a small business owner I’ve been hit with a few times. It’s called the "Entitlement generation”.
I had one person come to me that has worked for me for about 3 years then he went own his own and came back to help out on a huge project we currently have going on. So I said lets work something out full time. His response I get 65.00 per hour and I don’t work Fridays. I sat back held my words and went about my business. Building and remodeling business doesn’t pay that kind of money and to say I don’t work Fridays. Guess what not with me period. The point is and this is a huge part of what’s happening now the ENTILTEMENT GENERATION. Those are the facts. When I was young I was thrilled to have a job taught you about responsibilities, maturity etc not how much are you paying me?

He very well be making $65 an hour as a subcontractor. Guy I know was making that kind of money making and installing custom cabinets. He wasn't working for someone else though. Ended up walking because he didn't want to work six days a week, ten plus hours a day. Those who some consider entitled really just want decent pay, enough to afford a home and health care for their families, and some time to spend with their families. Anything less, they don't want it and I can't say I blame them.

[TiltonBB]

Originally Posted by Harry Heffalump

He very well be making $65 an hour as a subcontractor. Guy I know was making that kind of money making and installing custom cabinets. He wasn't working for someone else though. Ended up walking because he didn't want to work six days a week, ten plus hours a day. Those who some consider entitled really just want decent pay, enough to afford a home and health care for their families, and some time to spend with their families. Anything less, they don't want it and I can't say I blame them.

That is true and it is all about balancing someone's needs and desires with their willingness to work to get there.

If you don't desire a different lifestyle or want more in your life then by all means take Friday's off. If that gives you enough to be satisfied, that is perfect.

However, people who want things like a waterfront home, a bigger boat, or a better car, typically have more aggressive personalities and are willing to work a little harder to get there. No business owner I know stops at 40 hours per week.

One friend, 65 years old and a multi millionaire business owner, still works 6 days a week. He enjoys continuing to build his business and both his adult children work there and will someday take over.

That is one of the great things about this country. Much opportunity is there for anyone to get to whatever level or lifestyle they would like.

[Descant]

Originally Posted by Harry Heffalump

He very well be making $65 an hour as a subcontractor. Guy I know was making that kind of money making and installing custom cabinets. He wasn't working for someone else though. Ended up walking because he didn't want to work six days a week, ten plus hours a day. Those who some consider entitled really just want decent pay, enough to afford a home and health care for their families, and some time to spend with their families. Anything less, they don't want it and I can't say I blame them.

Welcome to the Forums, Harry Heffalump.
We hear a lot about the "me" generation and in the background, that's what we're discussing here. I want more for me, not for the boss, not for my kids or grandchildren. People don't see the long term value off paying off the mortgage, they want t6 move to a bigger house every few years. You no longer progress up through the company, you want more, you go to another company. Lots of changes. Few qualify for pensions and don't always have the self-discipline to save and/or invest.

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by Descant

Welcome to the Forums, Harry Heffalump.

We hear a lot about the "me" generation and in the background, that's what we're discussing here. I want more for me, not for the boss, not for my kids or grandchildren. People don't see the long term value off paying off the mortgage, they want t6 move to a bigger house every few years. You no longer progress up through the company, you want more, you go to another company. Lots of changes. Few qualify for pensions and don't always have the self-discipline to save and/or invest.

While I agree there's a much different culture in terms of saving/being debt-free, I disagree with the job-jumping being employee-driven and believe it's more company-driven. That employees need to move because companies rarely present long-term cultures like they did in the past. I think that's totally part of what we've seen in the Big Quit/Great Resignation—that people are done jumping through hoops for companies that don't do the right thing.

One other note, about the mortgage payoff: on the night I signed a second mortgage for our camp and started teaching night school to pay for it, I listened to my first episode of Dave Ramsey, in which he told "me" that I'd just made a huge mistake creating more debt. Nine years later, and I still disagree with him, but I have totally changed a lot of what I do financially and am now almost debt-free at 45.

That decision to skip a lot of good things was hard but definitely valuable (and responsible for a lot of my..."extra"...research threads!).

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[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

One other note, about the mortgage payoff: on the night I signed a second mortgage for our camp and started teaching night school to pay for it, I listened to my first episode of Dave Ramsey, in which he told "me" that I'd just made a huge mistake creating more debt. Nine years later, and I still disagree with him, but I have totally changed a lot of what I do financially and am now almost debt-free at 45.


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This is awesome. I wish I had the stones to do that at age 36--my wife and I were too hung up on it being "irrational" to buy. Even better--you're now a financial genius with a huge return on your downpayment of nine years ago (and that's not including all the fun you've had!)

[TiltonBB]

I look at debt differently than many people. If you have a 3% mortgage and money in a mutual fund that has averaged 20% over the last 20 years why pay off the mortgage?

If you own a home worth $500,000 and owe $250,000 on it and the value appreciates 10%, your equity appreciated 20%. You are making money on the banks money. Property appreciation is your friend.

I started buying two family income properties in 1978. I never cared how much I owed on them as long as, after the down payment the rents would make the payments, with a little extra for vacancies and maintenance. As the rents and my savings, allowed I kept buying two families.

I wasn't the guy that wanted Friday's off from my regular job, most weeks I worked between 58 and 60 hours there and did any necessary property maintenance on the weekends. I'm nobody special, growing up my family had just enough to get by. I knew having a goal would pay off some day and I would be comfortable.

When I was 19, 20, 21 years old I was in awe of the waterfront homes on the lake. I had an 18 foot 1969 Searay that I trailered to the lake. All day long out on the boat I would see people who had "made it" I knew I had to figure out a way to get into a waterfront home.

Anyone could do it, you just have to be willing to work hard, set your goals, and try to make good decisions. Debt doesn't scare me a bit.

[Descant]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

I look at debt differently than many people. If you have a 3% mortgage and money in a mutual fund that has averaged 20% over the last 20 years why pay off the mortgage?

If you own a home worth $500,000 and owe $250,000 on it and the value appreciates 10%, your equity appreciated 20%. You are making money on the banks money. Property appreciation is your friend.

I started buying two family income properties in 1978. I never cared how much I owed on them as long as, after the down payment the rents would make the payments, with a little extra for vacancies and maintenance. As the rents and my savings, allowed I kept buying two families.

I wasn't the guy that wanted Friday's off from my regular job, most weeks I worked between 58 and 60 hours there and did any necessary property maintenance on the weekends. I'm nobody special, growing up my family had just enough to get by. I knew having a goal would pay off some day and I would be comfortable.

When I was 19, 20, 21 years old I was in awe of the waterfront homes on the lake. I had an 18 foot 1969 Searay that I trailered to the lake. All day long out on the boat I would see people who had "made it" I knew I had to figure out a way to get into a waterfront home.

Anyone could do it, you just have to be willing to work hard, set your goals, and try to make good decisions. Debt doesn't scare me a bit.

Having followed a similar path, I agree up to a point. There's a difference in having a mortgage on an investment/income producing asset, and borrowing money for a depreciating asset or something that has no value at all after the vacation is over. Too much debt on the wrong assets was the problem in 2008.

[John Mercier]

Which mutual fund has average 20% over the last 20 years?

Also, the young man may not care about ''the lake''. He may wish Fridays off to get a jump on the traffic getting out of here to wherever it is that he may find to his liking. As for his desired pay, if he works on the lake with people that claim they have money to blow... why not take as much as he can get?

He would be a teenager when the last time the ride came to an abrupt end... but he probably has those around him to tell him the history.

[TiltonBB]

I didn't spend a lot of time looking but here are a couple of funds that have done well:

CPOAX 10 year return: 23.3%

MSEGX 10 year Return: 23.23%

It doesn't really matter what fund you choose as long as your money is earning substantially more than your mortgage interest rate.

[John Mercier]

Mortgage interest rates have been recently low, but no one knows what the stock market or bond market will hold over the next several decades.

The interest rate on my mortgage in the 90s was 7%... that was a guaranteed return. It was much better than a bond, and better than the results between 2000 and 2010. The last ten years is not indicative of a normal rate of return in the stock market... and not likely to continue as the US can, and will, not continue monetary and fiscal stimulus at the rates seen since the crash. The inflationary outcome is just too great.

[baygo]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

I didn't spend a lot of time looking but here are a couple of funds that have done well:

CPOAX 10 year return: 23.3%

MSEGX 10 year Return: 23.23%

It doesn't really matter what fund you choose as long as your money is earning substantially more than your mortgage interest rate.

These returns are consequent of a long running bull market. The market is currently at a tipping point from a technical standpoint. if it breaks below the 52 week low, there’s a likelihood it’s reversing into a bear.

[John Mercier]

If you check the current status of the funds, they already have.
Both are load funds with a reasonable expense ratio... but one is for institutional investors.

Their 20 year performance is not as spectacular as their 10. When ''timelined'' against the S&P 500 and adjusted for the load... they fair only OK over the 20 year period.

But I understood the concept being presented. Even at a steady long term 8 percent return, if you can afford the monthly mortgage payments, it allows all the cash to be invested upfront.

But that is an investing situation and not a labor situation... the focus of the thread.

[YOLO]

Instead of complaining about Chiptole, which is a very poorly run public corporation.... if you want more hours, there are more than enough opportunities even in the same industry. The article cited has a propagandized agenda and it is working on the author. Don't take the bait.

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by YOLO

Instead of complaining about Chiptole, which is a very poorly run public corporation.... if you want more hours, there are more than enough opportunities even in the same industry. The article cited has a propagandized agenda and it is working on the author. Don't take the bait.

When you say Chipotle is poorly run, I guess you mean except for their $40 billion market cap? They are a huge success story.

And when you say more hours are available--that's true, but you seem to ignore the fundamental problem that many huge successful companies such as Chipotle, Starbucks, WalMart, Popeyes, and Kroeger do not give their part-time workers consistent schedules.

This stuff is in the news at least weekly--it is not one article. Here's another

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/19/b...sultPosition=8

[mofn]

To pick up on the hours aspect, there was a food establishment on the lake that put up a sign on the front door last summer cutting back hours on a certain day “due to Covid” implying lack of help.
We asked why?
Was told by employees, owner was tired wanted time off, so Covid & lack of help was the excuse used, not the real reason.
The employees wanted to work and they had the help; the change was 7 hours cut in one day.

Things will change, but it takes time. The narrative out there is all these people are home collecting.
Last Friday (2/5) we passed 916,000 dead from Covid.
Last week the Brookings Inst. released a study as of now 1.6 million Covid long-haulers, a VAST percentage will never work again.
Using the expected 1 in 300 deaths for Omicron, a further 850,000 unvaxed dead, not factoring in the long haulers.
Again last Friday reported cases to deaths nationwide 1 in 175 well past 1 in 300.
Add in all the dead from drugs the last 11 years (600,000), baby boomers dying off etc. etc.
The business model will change as we already are seeing since 3/2020, like anything change comes SLOW!

[John Mercier]

So the employer did not feel that any employee could fill their role... but that is not what is being discussed.

Garcia is stating that when working part-time at one operation... but not having a solid schedule, it is impossible to work part-time at a second operation and be sure that the schedules will not overlap.

[YOLO]

Originally Posted by FlyingScot

When you say Chipotle is poorly run, I guess you mean except for their $40 billion market cap? They are a huge success story.

And when you say more hours are available--that's true, but you seem to ignore the fundamental problem that many huge successful companies such as Chipotle, Starbucks, WalMart, Popeyes, and Kroeger do not give their part-time workers consistent schedules.

This stuff is in the news at least weekly--it is not one article. Here's another

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/19/b...sultPosition=8

While it might be a success story, you are making my case it is poorly run. They have been short-staffed at many locations since covid, had supply-chain issues prior to covid and still do now and they can't seem to keep a consistent schedule of being open at many locations. They are poor at managing the staff, often there are items on the menu that are not available and all of the locations I have been to still won't take cash if you do not have exact change. Never mind the food poisoning fiasco they went through a few years ago.

As for the part time full time issue, that goes back to the Obamacare debacle which redefined what part time and full time workers are as it relates to benefits. It was WARNED then that this would happen. Companies would push more workers to part time by cutting hours to reduce the liability and expense of full time workers. Now employees are complaining they aren't getting the hours? They probably supported Obamacare. This was by design to convince folks like you to push for universal healthcare later on. The government created the problem intentionally to get support now for what they could not get support for then.

As I said, plenty of jobs. Large corporations are mostly pigs who claim to be for all of the hot button social issues and the working folks, but that is mostly putting lipstick on the pig. Get a job somewhere else. The NYT is again pushing an agenda through propaganda and people are buying it. It's planned manipulation of the population. I have no love for any large corporate or other entity, be it the media, Chipoltle or the government. But this is the fault of the complainers. It's a giant cesspool. Support the local business. They need the help too.

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by YOLO

While it might be a success story, you are making my case it is poorly run. They have been short-staffed at many locations since covid, had supply-chain issues prior to covid and still do now and they can't seem to keep a consistent schedule of being open at many locations. They are poor at managing the staff, often there are items on the menu that are not available and all of the locations I have been to still won't take cash if you do not have exact change. Never mind the food poisoning fiasco they went through a few years ago.

As for the part time full time issue, that goes back to the Obamacare debacle which redefined what part time and full time workers are as it relates to benefits. It was WARNED then that this would happen. Companies would push more workers to part time by cutting hours to reduce the liability and expense of full time workers. Now employees are complaining they aren't getting the hours? They probably supported Obamacare. This was by design to convince folks like you to push for universal healthcare later on. The government created the problem intentionally to get support now for what they could not get support for then.

As I said, plenty of jobs. Large corporations are mostly pigs who claim to be for all of the hot button social issues and the working folks, but that is mostly putting lipstick on the pig. Get a job somewhere else. The NYT is again pushing an agenda through propaganda and people are buying it. It's planned manipulation of the population. I have no love for any large corporate or other entity, be it the media, Chipoltle or the government. But this is the fault of the complainers. It's a giant cesspool. Support the local business. They need the help too.

I had not thought about this being an unintended effect of Obamacare, I will look this up.

I have thought about the rest, and although I think you're paranoid about the NY Times, I agree on the other stuff--it is a terrible way to treat people and manage the business in general, large corporations are pigs, and we should shop local. Cheers!

[John Mercier]

They are complaining that terrible management doesn't allow them to fill several open slots that would at least patch the labor shortage.
Improved management techniques would allow for a part-time worker, as defined by the ACA (The Affordable Care Act requires any employer with more than 50 employees to offer health insurance to a minimum of 95% of their employees who work an average of 30 hours a week), to hold two or more jobs and still meet the standards of part-time.

In time, they will move to better management... and Chipotle, along with others will have a worse labor shortage.

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

They are complaining that terrible management doesn't allow them to fill several open slots that would at least patch the labor shortage.
Improved management techniques would allow for a part-time worker, as defined by the ACA (The Affordable Care Act requires any employer with more than 50 employees to offer health insurance to a minimum of 95% of their employees who work an average of 30 hours a week), to hold two or more jobs and still meet the standards of part-time.

In time, they will move to better management... and Chipotle, along with others will have a worse labor shortage.

Good point. Also, the ACA has no impact on the last minute scheduling of workers

[Flylady]

In the 2000 years there was a big shift in many service industries, including Financial Services, retail grocery, etc. to part-time. Their official reasoning was to better meet high volume periods rather than having worker be idol when there were fewer clients. It made a lot of scene. However, financially the benefit to employer was reduced cost of benefits.

I witnessed this in the Banking Industry. Employees working less than 24 hours a week did not get the health benefits nor participate in retirement packages. These were not minimum wage jobs. They actually paid the part timers a few buck more to offset lack of benefit.

Bottom line it never really worked in attracting or retaining the employees needed to upward mobility. Most everyone can relate to going to the bank at lunch time or at end of day and it being very busy with longer than normal waits.

It never was about the client, but the bottom line. Now many banks are having to decide how to move forward. Make more full time jobs available or pursue the part time market. In most metropolitan areas they are closing offices and consolidating because they can not or will not hire people with 32-40 hours a week jobs. Clients are being forced to use ATM's and other online options. One Bank with part time positions will not even consider people without a college degree!