Ice Out!!!

[michael c]

This past Tuesday, I was at the Paugus bay end of the channel...Two guys out in an aluminum boat trolling for salmon. Yesterday I noticed a crack going from my side of Paugus bay all the way across to the south down area ,Crack was 4 inches wide but then it moved back together .Today,Friday , that crack is back ,the Bay is ice free ,when heading from weirs towards Gilford , all the way past 4 seasons condos .Also today I saw another crack from Ganong R.E. all the way across ,prolly 6-8 inches wide ... looks like its coming early . The theory is that becasue we had so much snow ,the snow actually insulated the water from the cold air above it and as a result, the ice only got 12-14 inches thick in some areas all winter ...therefore ,many are predicting an early ice out ....We shall see !!!!
Mike

[secondcurve]

Mike:

The last I checked, today was Friday.

[michael c]

When you work 7 days a week ,sometimes its difficult to remember ...and sometimes its really not important .When you wake up ,go to work ....When you can't stand up anymore ,go to sleep ...works for me

[jeffk]

... it still looks pretty socked in. We are up at the North end near Ganzy Island and Suissevale. The water is only open for less than 10 feet from the shore. As long as we have been there our water opens up well before official ice out. Now it's possible that it's going to be significantly different this year but I don't know why it would be. Mabye the ice is really thin and melting from the bottom so even though there is a lot of ice coverage now it's going to just disappear all at once. It's supposed to be somewhat sunny and around 60 midweek. Maybe that will accelerate the process significantly.

As I remember average ice out is right around tax time, April 15th. I don't see it happening in 10 days. If I had to guess right now, I would bet toward the end of April.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Part of the difference between this year and last year is the color of the ice. This year's ice is white because it formed from December's snows instead of from the water lying still on a cold night. Black ice is stronger during the winter and grows more during cold nights but at this time of year it allows more solar radiation to get through to the water below, which makes it thin faster. This white ice we have is reflecting sunlight away. That, coupled with the presence of a very deep and frozen snowpack through the area has supported colder nights than we might otherwise be getting right now. That has slowed down the rate of melting. Currently most melting is confined to daylight hours when the lake water warms up, but it's been giving off the heat overnight. When we start seeing some warmer *nights* and higher humidity, the lake will stop cooling off at night... allowing the next day to add to the previous day's warming of the water.

[michael c]

in front of Ganong R.E. is now 4-5 feet wide !!!

[CanisLupusArctos]

For once, I get to be the bearer of good weather news!

Today's predicted day-long cold rain has cleared and the skies have turned sunny. In response, the temperatures have risen to the 50s in town and 40s out on the lake.

This is speeding the melting process of the snow. The depth at Black Cat WeatherCam is now a patchy 6 inches. There is a lot of bare ground. Most of the area's snow is now confined to the woods.

The best news is that the lake is now actively warming. In the last couple days I noticed the water temp pattern had shifted back to "warmer surface/colder underneath" instead of the opposite which is the winter pattern. This was the turning point - now the surface is warming a degree or so on days like today, and the warmth is transferring down below until the two readings are equal for the night. Then the next day the process starts over again. They're at 36 now.

UPDATE at 4:20 pm... Laconia is at 57 and Plymouth up to 62! The WeatherCam remains at 49, thanks to the Winnipesaukee ice-bath effect. You can now monitor the temps in those nearby locations because I added links to them at the bottom of the weathercam page.

[Merrymeeting]

I'm glad to see there are no very strong winds in the near-term forecast. With the way the ice is cracking, there would be some massive bergs moving around if the wind comes up.

[DRH]

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

I'm glad to see there are no very strong winds in the near-term forecast. With the way the ice is cracking, there would be some massive bergs moving around if the wind comes up.

We're getting gusty winds along the West Alton shoreline this morning. The wind is averaging 15 - 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. No signs of any stress cracks forming in the ice here, though.

[Weirs guy]

When I was coming down Tower Hill yesterday I noticed all of Weirs Bay had turned to gray ice, Paugus Bay looks "good" too. Shouldn't be too much longer....