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#101 |
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#102 | |
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(just kidding, we should be there in 2 weeks) |
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#103 | |
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#105 | |
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While I am admittedly unsure, this strikes me as a Lescar-fact! |
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#106 |
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Made it to Pine Island from Y-Landing on Wednesday. Clear water in the channel and then pushed through the ice on the south side of the island around to the east... slow going!
with a little wind, it won't be more than a few days now till full ice out!! -PIG |
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#107 |
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Fog eats ice though....
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#108 |
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At the risk of being "that guy", I believe that the fog may be a result of the ice going away, not the cause of it.
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#109 |
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It's both. The fog forms close to the ice because the layer of air there is cooled below the dew point of the bulk air mass over us, which (for Moultonborough at 6:19pm) is 60 F. But the moisture in that somewhat humid air also is condensing at the ice surface, giving it about 1000 BTU/lb of moisture condensed. Compare that to about 143 BTU/lb of ice melted, and you have close to seven pounds of ice melted per pound of moisture condensed out of the air. Think of the ice as being a dehumidifier for the air. You wouldn't notice the fog if there were any wind, as that would keep the air layers mixed, but the rate of melting would be even higher. The mixing would bring the energy in the warmer, somewhat humid air to the ice surface faster.
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#110 |
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HI folks;
I decided to do a little fishing today 4/19/19, friday, My tritoon was already in the water at Thurstons Marine in the Weirs channel. I decided to motor up the channel and fish in front of the Weirs Beach area. There was a lot of dark , mushy ice, and it pretty much was blocking the channel . But, as the day wore on...2:00 pm and the temp quickly rose to near 65 degrees, and the wind kicked in soon afterwards....the ice started moving north towards Governors Island and Spindle Point(the north shoreline) ..the entire Weirs bay area opened right up. I had a great day, and by 6:00 pm I connected with my first salmon of the year, a nice 18" salmon. I could see the inside of Governers Island was completely open. I'm predicting that ice-out will occur by the end of the day tomorrow. WINNI BOB |
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#111 |
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The entire Weirs Beach area opened up late today. I caught my first salmon at 6:30 pm right in front of the Weirs Beach area. I could see open water all the way through the inside of Governors Island.
Whoppee !!!! WINNI BOB |
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#112 |
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Riddle me this Batman...
As I understand it, ice out is declared by pilot Emerson who flies his plane over the lake to verify it is safe for the Mount Washington to make all of its stops. But... What if the weather conditions preclude safe flight and he has to wait a few days to go look? For instance, if the weather delayed the flight until Monday, say at 3pm, that could happen right? Asking for a friend... |
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#113 | |
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#114 |
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From observing large areas of gray slushy ice disappear into the water, all at once, it seems to me the slush is both melting, losing buoyancy, and sinking, all at the same time.
Too big of an area of slush will disappear into the water, all at once, for it to be just melting, which leads me to think that the slush also sinks.
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#115 | |
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#116 |
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Anyone have eyes on 19 mile bay recently?
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#117 |
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Why do people think I’ve sinks? My recollection from chemistry/physics is that ice is less dense than water an therefore always floats on/in water. Even if it is saturated (in holes, crevices, etc) with the water that surrounds it will still be more buoyant.
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#118 |
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19 mile was dark gray with a lot of open water around the shore. I would not be surprised to see it gone ANYTIME SOON. There is a Pontoon boat in at 19 Mile bay. Every where it looked real dark and ready to go out. Wolfboro etc. Just my opinion. kerk
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#119 | |
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On a sunny day, from the shore, one can stand there, and watch the glistening slush as it slowly descends downward into the depths. The slush loses its' buoyancy and very slowly sinks.
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#120 |
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Wolfeboro bay is “slushed” in, but there appears to be open water before the point and out toward Barndoor.
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#121 |
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![]() ![]() Ice floats on a lake's surface until it is melted. Although it sometimes floats low in the water, it does not sink to the bottom, as some mistakenly believe. Water is heaviest at 39 degrees, lighter at higher or lower temperatures. Falling air temperatures in autumn and lower sun angles, in conjunction with wind and wave action, result in the lowering of lake temperatures. Because the cooler water is heavier, it will sink, displacing and forcing warmer water to the surface. This continues until the entire lake reaches a temperature of about 39 degrees. Following this, surface temperatures will fall below 39 degrees and the cooler and lighter water will remain at the surface. As the surface water cools further, it will eventually change into ice. Because the ice is colder and less dense than the water below it, it floats. In the spring, the reverse occurs. Rising air temperature and higher sun angles cause melting to begin on top of the ice layer. If there are no cracks or fissures, the melting water will accumulate on top of the ice. If this happens over an entire lake (which is unlikely) or over parts of the lake, one might get the impression that the ice is sinking. But it isn't. Further warming will cause the ice to become rotted or honeycombed, with water and air filling the void. The dark color of ice in late winter is because of this honeycombing. As the honeycombing process continues, the ice mass floats lower and lower in the water until it is completely melted, but it never sinks to the bottom. One of the wonders of the planet earth and floating ice, without it the planet would more likely be dead. Last edited by Top-Water; 04-20-2019 at 11:06 AM. Reason: underline |
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#122 |
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#123 |
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#124 |
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When swimming I always wondered why the water was colder deeper down. It's all that sunken slushy ice. And I'll see the Easter bunny tomorrow.
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#125 |
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My mind is going slushy reading this thread!
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#126 |
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FLL fresh water is never more dense than fresh water. As long as the “slush” (water & ice) contains ice, again which is less dense than water it will float, not sink. And by the way sublimation is the transition from a solid directly to a gas. Fresh water ice doesn’t do that, it melts to water.
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#127 |
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Hate to be disagreeable, but a small amount of ice will sublime to vapor and become incorporated into the atmosphere. When the conditions are right the sublimed water vapor will condense and become fog (which then eats more ice).
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#128 |
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That's it, I'm going trolling tomorrow no matter if I hear from Emerson or not!
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#130 | |
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Try a simple internet search. |
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#131 | |
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#132 |
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So what do you call an "opinionated" scientist?
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#133 | |
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The situation of ice melting in water is unique in that 32 F is the "triple point" of water, at which you can have water, ice floating in it, and a water vapor space above it (very cold steam, at that very low pressure), all in thermal equilibrium. Also, as part of that definition, the vapor pressure exerted by ice (0.08854 psi) is the same as the pressure exerted by liquid water. However, by enthalpy balance, the heat of sublimation (energy absorbed going from solid ice to vapor is the total of heat of fusion (143 BTU/lb) plus heat of vaporization (1075.8). Any ice that sublimes or water that evaporates into the air above it absorbs the heat it needs to do so mostly from the water and partly from the air in contact with the surface (that theoretically would cause some water to refreeze if done slowly). Condensing that water vapor back onto the water/ice surface would just return the energy absorbed by turning into vapor, so it's mostly a wash (I guess that's a pun, too). |
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#134 |
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When do discussions of lake ice melting move from the sublime to the ridiculous? Asking for a friend. Lol.
Love the science talk but couldn’t resist.... |
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#135 |
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#136 |
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#137 |
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The ice is moving quickly to the north this afternoon. Ice crinkles as it hits rocks and is building up on some. Fog is blowing off the gray ice, at times obscuring visibility. A neighbor put their dock in today. Hopefully it will survive the momentum of the ice flows.
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#138 |
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I have enjoyed the science of ice. It’s going to take awhile for it all to sink in....so to speak.
In the meantime my boat is in the water and Minge Cove is ice free, including the channel. Wahoo!!! IG
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#139 |
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#140 |
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#141 |
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Unless of course you read this article:
The Arctic Ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from the Consulate at Bergen, Norway. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard of temperatures in the Arctic zone. Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared. Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds. Within a few years it is predicted that due to the ice melt the sea will rise and make most coast cities uninhabitable. I must apologize. I neglected to mention that this report was from November 2 , 1922, as reported by the AP and published in The Washington Post 96 years ago. This must have been caused by the Model T Ford's emissions or possibly from horse and cattle flatulence. |
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#142 |
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Wow, that's a good one. I must admit you had me till the last!! Sounds so familiar!!
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#143 |
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Had me also. Article is is available online?
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#144 |
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Yes, I would like to see the source of the information from 1922.
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#145 | |
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It’s says Consulate of Bergen, Norway and printed in the Washington Post November 2, 1922 Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app |
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#146 | |
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#147 |
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#148 |
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So we are still on track for 4/22 at 3pm then.
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#149 |
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It's kind of silly to suggest that because somebody may have been wrong a hundred years ago that the entire scientific community is wrong today. And it's ironic to use a fact check site that may show one article in favor of climate change denial when that same site likely shows about a thousand (a million?) other references that support climate change
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#150 | |
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You have got to be kidding !!! They gave publication date and source. Just look it up if you doubt it. It wasn’t some meme picture someone posted Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app |
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#151 | |
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....keeping " urban decay " out of photos for nearly a year. |
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#152 |
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I’ve been saying the 22nd all along! I’ll be SO EXCITED if I’m right this year! I don’t know about all of you but I’m ready to get back out on the lake!!!!
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#153 | |
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Perhaps that article was written to support a political position. Perhaps it was just wrong. Perhaps the author was simply tying to create a sensational article that would create interest. It succeed in sparking your interest 97 years later. Perhaps the author, like you, started with a preconceived notion and looked for data or reports to support that belief. |
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#154 | |
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#155 | |
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#156 |
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The link to the article was already posted but I thought I would post it without having to go to the link.
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#157 | |
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#158 |
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No, it's not off topic.
With google, any nitwit can easily find multiple references on any one topic, idea, person, historical event or anything else ...... and is pretty easy to find a reference that supports what you already were thinking or whatever agenda you are promoting ..... I do it all the time.
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#160 |
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Can we please keep this thread for ice conditions and open water and NOT political environmental back and forth?
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#161 |
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Ice out was just declared in my vodka on the rocks, Woe is me!
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#162 |
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It is the agenda of people using the article today that has been questioned. It is climate change deniers who have a hard time believing things in the face of overwhelming evidence. |
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#164 | |
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Sorry on both accounts. They are denying the source author of the article and I do think climate change is over exaggerated Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app Last edited by joey2665; 04-22-2019 at 05:14 AM. |
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Yesterday after I drive on Rte 11 from Alton to Meredith and didn’t see any ice. Anyone know how Wolfboro looks?
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#166 | ||
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I don't know what is right at this time but it is pretty obvious the the person quoted in the article was wrong about climate change 100 years ago. Most of the predictions never came true. From another source: The Great Global Warming Swindle The Great Global Warming Swindle is a polemical documentary film that suggests that the scientific opinion on climate change is influenced by funding and political factors, and questions whether scientific consensus on global warming exists. The film, made by British television producer Martin Durkin, presents scientists, economists, politicians, writers, and others who dispute the scientific consensus regarding anthropogenic global warming. The programme's publicity materials assert that man-made global warming is "a lie" and "the biggest scam of modern times." So, sometimes when you only listen to people who agree with you it tends to skew your opinions, and if what is said confirms your opinions, you feel it validates them. In life, and in politics, that can often work against you. And then there is this: 31,487 American scientists have signed this petition, including 9,029 with PhDs (Must be some of the scientists missed by FlyingScot) ![]() |
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#167 |
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Yeah but...
Did Emerson get the plane out of the hangar yet? I have been running the fog machine all night... |
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#168 | |
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Ice in there nothing solid looked like ice that was blowing in from the broads that was chunks from elsewhere. It's pretty much an ice flow that shifts around with the prevailing wind. Guaranteed it will "sink" by mid week ![]() FYI water levels right now are HIGH! It'll be gone this week. In other news... parking lot was full at the state boat ramp in Alton Bay. |
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#169 |
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Would you know how long it takes for Marine Patrol to have the sunken ice marked off.
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#170 | |
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#171 | |
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Just posted by Emerson Aviation:
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#172 |
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I am surprised at that so long after mid lake being clear of ice.
In the mean time we got the water in on Welch yesterday and were rewarded with a pretty nice sunset. |
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#173 | |
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DPW thought it appropriate to float some "frost heave" signs over them. MP wanted to attach 2 foot long reflective hot pink noodles to them. Secretly it's believed the reason why is a trip to the hardware store is rewarded with free super duper coffee which does not compare to the stuff they have at the MP HQ and they are always looking to bling out their patrol boats with random trinkets from the discount bargain bin at the front of the store. Who will win this epic battle? Guess we will wait and find out! Unnamed, but well known sources from within Emerson Aviation familiar with this have assured the public that they will provide photos from the air of marked areas of sunken ice. Bizer will be also updating their 2019 navigational charts with the newly created "seasonal" markings complete with GPS coordinates. Laminated charts will not be available till June. First printed, Associated Press, April 22, 1922. |
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#174 | |
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It only takes a few seconds to check out things on Snopes BEFORE you post. |
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#175 | |
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#176 | |
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The beauty of the information age - one can always find something to support a position! An entertaining distraction while I wait for the ice to go out... |
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#177 | |
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![]() This is a thread about ice conditions on the lake, please stay on topic or start another thread. |
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#178 |
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You gotta complaint about what’s happening on a particular thread, I suggest you relay your concern to the moderator rather than playing net nanny for the rest of us. He’s actually does quite a good job if you let him.
Just sayin’. Oh, and I know, I’m contributing by bitching about the people who are bitching! LOL. |
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Center Harbor is clearing quite nicely from the pics Emerson posted on FB 4 hours ago. 2 views by Long Island Bridge near Trexlers.
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Top: a view looking NW towards Center Harbor. Bottom: a view looking SE into Moultonborough Bay
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#181 | |
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I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific. |
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#182 | |
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However your stance of ice out getting later over time, indicates not necessarily global warming, but rather a shift in the timing of the season, in our "calendar year"..... These things can be shown or not scientifically, however screaming global warming has a much better chaotic effect to it. I am not saying that global warming isn't a real thing.... but I also believe with more study we might find some additional shifts and re-alignments going on, as mother natures determines and figures out how to deal with the biggest environmental challenge on earth "MAN" Yep I just went there............
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Life is about how much time you can spend relaxing... I do it on an island that isn't really an island..... |
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#183 | |
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![]() PLEASE start another thread if you wish to discuss global warming, thank you. |
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#184 | |
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![]() PLEASE start another thread if you want to continue to discuss global warming. Thanks. |
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*Steps in, looking for discussion about ice out and climate change, finds DEJ posting more requests to separate off-topic posts than actual off-topic posts, steps out...after wondering for a moment whether or not someone will actually count the number of DEJ requests or will recognize hyperbole*
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#186 | |
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For those interested in that other topic check the data on our Ice-Out page that shows the Ice-Out dates for the last 130 or so years. |
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With the latest view from Center Harbor Inn, it looks as though the Mount Washington can leave her winter port and head back to The Weirs...
https://centerharborinn.com/winnipesaukee-webcam/ Ice out 4/23/19 @ 6:10a? Wakey wakey eggs ‘n bakey Emerson Aviation! Last edited by JasJackson; 04-23-2019 at 05:12 AM. Reason: Misspelled word |
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Oh wait: Emerson Aviation has just made an announcement—which I quote: Quote:
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Every MP who enters Winter Harbor will pass by my porch of 67 years... ![]() |
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Emerson just posted an update... looks like ice out could be this afternoon!
"Closing in on ice out. As of 11:00 Center Harbor is holding on but just barely." |
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#192 | |
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Earliest ice out ever was in 2016. So much for it getting later. Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app
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NHEC crew got to Bear when ice cleared enough and restored power just now.
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I'm hoping my graph can be seen here. I took the Ice-Out dates from the historical list and calculated the average Ice-out date for each 10 period, starting with 1887-1896, and so on. It certainly shows a long term trend towards earlier and earlier ice outs.
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See there you go, proof that ice sinks faster today than it did in the late 1800's.
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#198 |
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![]() I read an article recently that sinking ice is a myth. It cannot and does not sink. Always thought it did, too. Sent from my iPad using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app
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So close!!
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Missed my guess of 1:23 PM. this afternoon. Maybe next year. 🐻
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