Severe TStorm Watch #838

CanisLupusArctos · 08-18-2008, 02:34 PM

The Storm Prediction Center just issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #838 for the northern half of the lakes region (Carroll Co., Coos & Grafton also, along with most of Maine, Vermont, and NY state.) This is until 10 pm.

While the watch does not officially cover Belknap county, the SPC is located in Oklahoma where they are most likely not aware that the Carroll/Belknap line runs down the middle of this lake and is a common path for severe storms. Therefore I would say the watch may as well include the entire lake, although officially it only includes the northern half of it. SPC forecasters cover themselves with a canned phrase that severe weather is possible "in and close to the watch area."

The following is the warning text from SPC:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 838
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
VERMONT

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF SYRACUSE NEW YORK TO 25 MILES NORTH OF HOULTON MAINE. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 837...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NY IN
REGION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN OH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS
PARTS OF VT/NH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A RISK OF HAIL IN
STRONGER CELLS. ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN AFFECTING NORTHERN ME IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THIS LINE WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING INTO MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AREA.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.

...HART

phoenix · 08-19-2008, 01:06 PM

CLA did any storms hit the area?

CanisLupusArctos · 08-19-2008, 09:41 PM

Just weak thundershowers overnight. There was big activity to our west but everything slowed down even more than expected as it approached. It ended up taking until noon today to get the sun back. But... it did come back, the front did pass, and now we have the sun with us until late in the weekend.

08-18-2008, 02:34 PM	#1
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	Severe TStorm Watch #838 The Storm Prediction Center just issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #838 for the northern half of the lakes region (Carroll Co., Coos & Grafton also, along with most of Maine, Vermont, and NY state.) This is until 10 pm. While the watch does not officially cover Belknap county, the SPC is located in Oklahoma where they are most likely not aware that the Carroll/Belknap line runs down the middle of this lake and is a common path for severe storms. Therefore I would say the watch may as well include the entire lake, although officially it only includes the northern half of it. SPC forecasters cover themselves with a canned phrase that severe weather is possible "in and close to the watch area." The following is the warning text from SPC: URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 838 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 310 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK VERMONT EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SYRACUSE NEW YORK TO 25 MILES NORTH OF HOULTON MAINE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 837... DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NY IN REGION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN OH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF VT/NH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING NORTHERN ME IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THIS LINE WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING INTO MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AREA. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030. ...HART

08-19-2008, 01:06 PM	#2
phoenix Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: phoenix and moultonboro Posts: 1,520 Thanks: 58 Thanked 266 Times in 187 Posts	CLA did any storms hit the area? __________________ it's tough to make predictions specially about the future

08-19-2008, 09:41 PM	#3
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	Just weak thundershowers overnight. There was big activity to our west but everything slowed down even more than expected as it approached. It ended up taking until noon today to get the sun back. But... it did come back, the front did pass, and now we have the sun with us until late in the weekend.