2008's first temperatures

CanisLupusArctos · 01-03-2008, 12:47 PM

It's after noontime and the temperature on Black Cat hasn't gotten above 4 degrees all day (since midnight.) This morning's low was -1, our first time below zero this season. So far it's a colder day than we had all last winter - our coldest daily max was 8 degrees, on a couple of occasions. However, it depends how the stats are broken down. On one occasion, the high of 8 was recorded at midnight and the temperature during daylight failed to reach zero.

Patches of open water remain around Black Cat Shoals, an indication that the ice should not be trusted on the open lake. Also as this season begins, beware that much of this season's ice resulted from the snowfall rather than solid ('black') ice like we had last year.

Rumors of warm air moving in are true... after today temps will rebound to more normal levels and then the models are showing incredibly warm air moving in here for the weekend and next week. I'd be inclined to tame down any forecasts for record highs though. Models don't do very well with temp forecasts when snowpack is involved. I have a hunch this warm air mass will chill off a bit, as it passes over the 18-24" snowpack we have over most of New England.. and locally... our lake ice. The same sort of effect happens when cold air moves over land that has no snow - it tends to warm up despite model predictions to the contrary.

When warm air does battle with a winter landscape we can expect fog, and any rain showers will run the risk of freezing to the roads because the snowpack may keep temps below freezing within 2 feet of the ground-- especially at night and in valleys. Forecasters would have a hard time detecting this, because most weather stations take the temperature at 4 or 5 feet off the ground.

Edit... I just realized I could've posted this in R2B's thread, 'Early Jan. 2008' D'OH!

Resident 2B · 01-03-2008, 09:32 PM

The current tempature on top of Mt. Washington is -1 while it is -15 at the base station and -17 in Fryeburg. The dew point is -22 and the wind there is calm, so the temps should continue to go lower.

This cold air is very dry and heavy and it drains into the valleys when the wind goes away. Interesting to watch and a very cold night is underway!

R2B

fatlazyless · 01-03-2008, 10:08 PM

Just checked the Varney Point weather cam and it says -0.9 in Gilford. Here in Waterville Valley, my mercury thermometer says -13.

There's people outside in the outdoor hot-tub too. Could be challenging getting out of that to come back inside. No one is rolling around in the fresh snow, making snow angels, like they usually do.

So, what's the differance between 30 and -13......they both be below freezin'.....so who can tell any differance?

dpg · 01-04-2008, 07:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fatlazyless

So, what's the differance between 30 and -13......they both be below freezin'.....so who can tell any differance?

Oh only about 40 or so degrees!!!

SIKSUKR · 01-04-2008, 09:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fatlazyless

So, what's the differance between 30 and -13......they both be below freezin'.....so who can tell any differance?

That's like saying what's the difference between 33 and 76....they are both above freezing.

CanisLupusArctos · 01-04-2008, 12:25 PM

I think I know what FLL is talking about, though I experienced it at much lower temps. When I lived in northeast Vermont during the infamously cold winter of 1993-94, it was below zero almost all the time - frequently -20, and sometimes -35 or lower. I was amazed that I couldn't feel the difference... below zero was below zero. When that happens your only clues to temperature change are beyond your sense of touch, as you witness laws of physics do things you don't normally get to see them do.

We had fun with it, going outside and throwing bowls of water up in the air to see it fall as ice pellets... stuff like that. One night I was walking back home and, upon entering, found that my eyes took an incredibly long time to adjust to the indoor light. One of my roommates who'd grown up in the area told me that sort of thing happens when the muscles that control your eyes get cold. After that I jumped on the local fashion-train of wearing goggles in extreme cold temps.

When the coldest part of the winter had passed, the temp went up to zero one day and I remember everyone was going outside without jackets (myself included) because it felt so warm! Amazing how the human body acclimatizes.

But above zero, I think the temp differences are definitely more noticeable.

As for right now on Lake Winni, we bottomed out at -6 this morning... making two days in a row with below-zero temps. The winds have turned and are now blowing from the southwest which is bringing up some much warmer air. We're rising through the teens and will reach the 20s today which will feel warm to many of us.

This weekend should be stellar for skiing (maybe not so stellar for negotiating ski traffic either on the roads or on the trails of the more popular mountains.) The reason for this will be the sunny weather and temps in the 30s we've got coming our way. We'll be going a few notches above freezing for Gunstock but the northern mountains (especially Wildcat, which faces NW) will likely stay below freezing until early next week. The party lasts until Wednesday when rain is expected... after that we'll need to start praying for more snow to freshen up the surfaces.

hilltopper · 01-04-2008, 03:04 PM

Ahhhh, I remember that Winter well. I think we did 6 trips snowmobiling in norhtern VT (out of Wheelock) where, when we returned, the thermometer read 15 below or colder. That Winter was the one and only time I've ever gotten frostbite. One night I left a helmet vent open without realizing it and within 20 minutes I had frostbite. I also remeber a very poor snowpack that year, but with the temps it held up very well until a mid-March warmup and then poof, it was gone.

SIKSUKR · 01-04-2008, 03:21 PM

Sorry CLA but I beg to differ.I'm on top of Cannon Mt every weekend and believe me,when your skiing at 30 mph in zero degree weather,there is a huge difference when it's 40 degrees colder.Maybe stepping outside for two minutes might not feel too different but follow me down Cannon at 30 below and it certainly will.Good crowd control though and the snow always stays great the whole day.

CanisLupusArctos · 01-04-2008, 03:52 PM

You have a point - I wasn't skiing in those temps! A 30 MPH breeze makes a big difference!

There is a point at which even the wind chill no longer makes a difference. I didn't experience that until becoming a winter volunteer for the Mount Washington Observatory (that same winter). They explained to me how the wind chill is a result of how quickly human skin loses heat, given a certain wind at a certain temperature (I think they said it was Army doctors who first calculated it). In any case, they said there's a point at which human skin loses heat so fast that it freezes instantly if exposed. Below that point, one wind chill reading is no different from another because skin can't lose heat any faster than instantly.

01-03-2008, 12:47 PM	#1
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	2008's first temperatures It's after noontime and the temperature on Black Cat hasn't gotten above 4 degrees all day (since midnight.) This morning's low was -1, our first time below zero this season. So far it's a colder day than we had all last winter - our coldest daily max was 8 degrees, on a couple of occasions. However, it depends how the stats are broken down. On one occasion, the high of 8 was recorded at midnight and the temperature during daylight failed to reach zero. Patches of open water remain around Black Cat Shoals, an indication that the ice should not be trusted on the open lake. Also as this season begins, beware that much of this season's ice resulted from the snowfall rather than solid ('black') ice like we had last year. Rumors of warm air moving in are true... after today temps will rebound to more normal levels and then the models are showing incredibly warm air moving in here for the weekend and next week. I'd be inclined to tame down any forecasts for record highs though. Models don't do very well with temp forecasts when snowpack is involved. I have a hunch this warm air mass will chill off a bit, as it passes over the 18-24" snowpack we have over most of New England.. and locally... our lake ice. The same sort of effect happens when cold air moves over land that has no snow - it tends to warm up despite model predictions to the contrary. When warm air does battle with a winter landscape we can expect fog, and any rain showers will run the risk of freezing to the roads because the snowpack may keep temps below freezing within 2 feet of the ground-- especially at night and in valleys. Forecasters would have a hard time detecting this, because most weather stations take the temperature at 4 or 5 feet off the ground. Edit... I just realized I could've posted this in R2B's thread, 'Early Jan. 2008' D'OH!

01-03-2008, 09:32 PM	#2
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,352 Thanks: 987 Thanked 310 Times in 161 Posts	Inversion The current tempature on top of Mt. Washington is -1 while it is -15 at the base station and -17 in Fryeburg. The dew point is -22 and the wind there is calm, so the temps should continue to go lower. This cold air is very dry and heavy and it drains into the valleys when the wind goes away. Interesting to watch and a very cold night is underway! R2B

01-03-2008, 10:08 PM	#3
fatlazyless Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 8,525 Blog Entries: 1 Thanks: 295 Thanked 957 Times in 698 Posts	Just checked the Varney Point weather cam and it says -0.9 in Gilford. Here in Waterville Valley, my mercury thermometer says -13. There's people outside in the outdoor hot-tub too. Could be challenging getting out of that to come back inside. No one is rolling around in the fresh snow, making snow angels, like they usually do. So, what's the differance between 30 and -13......they both be below freezin'.....so who can tell any differance? __________________ ... down and out, liv'n that Walmart side of the lake!

01-04-2008, 03:21 PM	#8
SIKSUKR Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 5,075 Thanks: 215 Thanked 903 Times in 509 Posts	Sorry CLA but I beg to differ.I'm on top of Cannon Mt every weekend and believe me,when your skiing at 30 mph in zero degree weather,there is a huge difference when it's 40 degrees colder.Maybe stepping outside for two minutes might not feel too different but follow me down Cannon at 30 below and it certainly will.Good crowd control though and the snow always stays great the whole day. __________________ SIKSUKR

01-04-2008, 03:52 PM	#9
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	Breeze does make a difference You have a point - I wasn't skiing in those temps! A 30 MPH breeze makes a big difference! There is a point at which even the wind chill no longer makes a difference. I didn't experience that until becoming a winter volunteer for the Mount Washington Observatory (that same winter). They explained to me how the wind chill is a result of how quickly human skin loses heat, given a certain wind at a certain temperature (I think they said it was Army doctors who first calculated it). In any case, they said there's a point at which human skin loses heat so fast that it freezes instantly if exposed. Below that point, one wind chill reading is no different from another because skin can't lose heat any faster than instantly.

01-04-2008, 12:25 PM	#6
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	I think I know what FLL is talking about, though I experienced it at much lower temps. When I lived in northeast Vermont during the infamously cold winter of 1993-94, it was below zero almost all the time - frequently -20, and sometimes -35 or lower. I was amazed that I couldn't feel the difference... below zero was below zero. When that happens your only clues to temperature change are beyond your sense of touch, as you witness laws of physics do things you don't normally get to see them do. We had fun with it, going outside and throwing bowls of water up in the air to see it fall as ice pellets... stuff like that. One night I was walking back home and, upon entering, found that my eyes took an incredibly long time to adjust to the indoor light. One of my roommates who'd grown up in the area told me that sort of thing happens when the muscles that control your eyes get cold. After that I jumped on the local fashion-train of wearing goggles in extreme cold temps. When the coldest part of the winter had passed, the temp went up to zero one day and I remember everyone was going outside without jackets (myself included) because it felt so warm! Amazing how the human body acclimatizes. But above zero, I think the temp differences are definitely more noticeable. As for right now on Lake Winni, we bottomed out at -6 this morning... making two days in a row with below-zero temps. The winds have turned and are now blowing from the southwest which is bringing up some much warmer air. We're rising through the teens and will reach the 20s today which will feel warm to many of us. This weekend should be stellar for skiing (maybe not so stellar for negotiating ski traffic either on the roads or on the trails of the more popular mountains.) The reason for this will be the sunny weather and temps in the 30s we've got coming our way. We'll be going a few notches above freezing for Gunstock but the northern mountains (especially Wildcat, which faces NW) will likely stay below freezing until early next week. The party lasts until Wednesday when rain is expected... after that we'll need to start praying for more snow to freshen up the surfaces.

01-04-2008, 03:04 PM	#7
hilltopper Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Meredith Posts: 716 Thanks: 25 Thanked 105 Times in 66 Posts	Ahhhh, I remember that Winter well. I think we did 6 trips snowmobiling in norhtern VT (out of Wheelock) where, when we returned, the thermometer read 15 below or colder. That Winter was the one and only time I've ever gotten frostbite. One night I left a helmet vent open without realizing it and within 20 minutes I had frostbite. I also remeber a very poor snowpack that year, but with the temps it held up very well until a mid-March warmup and then poof, it was gone.