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Old Yesterday, 04:15 PM   #201
Bear Islander
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Originally Posted by Pricestavern View Post
I'm hoping my graph can be seen here. I took the Ice-Out dates from the historical list and calculated the average Ice-out date for each 10 period, starting with 1887-1896, and so on. It certainly shows a long term trend towards earlier and earlier ice outs.
Good work!

That graph is very telling. It especially shows the change in the last 40 years. My anecdotal perceptions were wrong.

Looks to me like an indication of Climate Change.
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Old Yesterday, 04:24 PM   #202
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Good work!

Looks to me like an indication of Climate Change.
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Old Yesterday, 04:48 PM   #203
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*Steps in, looking for discussion about ice out and climate change, finds DEJ posting more requests to separate off-topic posts than actual off-topic posts, steps out...after wondering for a moment whether or not someone will actually count the number of DEJ requests or will recognize hyperbole*

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Old Yesterday, 04:53 PM   #204
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Originally Posted by Pricestavern View Post
I'm hoping my graph can be seen here. I took the Ice-Out dates from the historical list and calculated the average Ice-out date for each 10 period, starting with 1887-1896, and so on. It certainly shows a long term trend towards earlier and earlier ice outs.
Thanks! The graph supports my less than scientific memory of the ice going out in late April when I was a child. Now I plan to have the dock in and camp open in mid April (certainly by the third week or so). A year like this year seems late - then again, maybe Iím just less patient as I get older!
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Old Yesterday, 04:58 PM   #205
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Old Yesterday, 05:02 PM   #206
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You post a quote of my post but you edit my quote to change my meaning! Totally unfair.
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Old Yesterday, 05:04 PM   #207
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You post a quote of my post but you edit my quote to change my meaning! Totally unfair.
Cry me a river. Please read post #186.
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Old Yesterday, 05:10 PM   #208
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Cry me a river. Please read post #186.
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Old Yesterday, 05:16 PM   #209
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Good one,
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Old Yesterday, 05:22 PM   #210
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Couldn't resist!
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Old Yesterday, 06:27 PM   #211
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Default No Ice Out Today?

Still Ice around the mount in Center Harbor. Looks like tomorrow morning for Ice out. Had the 24th in the ice out contest some year. Does that count?
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Old Yesterday, 06:35 PM   #212
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As the ice softens through the processes of melting and sublimation, it becomes slush, which is ice saturated with water, and along the cycle back to all water, it becomes a little heavier than water, and will slowly sink.
It's Okay fll, all O them loose screws in my brain cavity get lonesome on occasion Too...
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Old Today, 06:08 AM   #213
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In case anyone missed it here is why there was no Ice-Out yesterday. It should happen this morning. (photo by Emerson Aviation)
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Old Today, 06:15 AM   #214
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In case anyone missed it here is why there was no Ice-Out yesterday. It should happen this morning. (photo by Emerson Aviation)
It's comedic that all the ice is gathered around the Mount in Center Harbor. I can almost imagine a bunch of boats the previous night gathering all the remaining pieces of ice from around the lake and pushing them into place for this picture.
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Old Today, 06:19 AM   #215
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It's official! Ice-Out declared 4/24/19 at 5:24 am.
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Old Today, 06:38 AM   #216
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It's comedic that all the ice is gathered around the Mount in Center Harbor. I can almost imagine a bunch of boats the previous night gathering all the remaining pieces of ice from around the lake and pushing them into place for this picture.
It is! Years ago that ice would not have impeded ice out from being declared.
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Old Today, 06:59 AM   #217
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Beware of sunken ice in Center Harbor bay.
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Old Today, 07:13 AM   #218
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Default ice outs

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pricestavern View Post
I'm hoping my graph can be seen here. I took the Ice-Out dates from the historical list and calculated the average Ice-out date for each 10 period, starting with 1887-1896, and so on. It certainly shows a long term trend towards earlier and earlier ice outs.
I'm not a statistician but a cursory review of the data may not support the hypothesis that ice outs are occurring earlier. The difference in dates from awhile to now may not be "statistically significant".

Having said that, it is interesting. Thank you
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Old Today, 07:57 AM   #219
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Default Eleven Percent

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Originally Posted by rsmlp View Post
I'm not a statistician but a cursory review of the data may not support the hypothesis that ice outs are occurring earlier. The difference in dates from awhile to now may not be "statistically significant".

Having said that, it is interesting. Thank you
Well, if you take April 26 as = 125 (number of days since Jan 1) and April 13 as 102, the difference is 13 days. That amounts to an 11.3% shortening in 131 years. I'm not a statistician either and I don't know how you'd determine statistical significance based on a single set of 131 years of data. But it feels like an 11 percent change is pretty significant. The cause? I'll let others debate that.

It would be interesting to try and superimpose 10 year avg low and high April temperatures (if you can find reliable temperature data back that far) to see if there is correlation, though maybe a combined March-April average would be a better view of temperature effect on melting. One could definitely get lost down this rabbit hole if they had the time.
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Old Today, 09:20 AM   #220
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Default Just Missed it

Missed it by 37 hours and 9 minutes! HA
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