2024 Ice-Out Guess Contest Now Open

[webmaster]

The 2024 winnipesaukee.com Ice-Out Guess Contest is now open and accepting guesses.

There are a few small changes this year:

1. Only the closest guess will win a prize (in the past the 3 closest guesses would win a prize).

2. If Ice-In does not occur in February the contest will be cancelled.

3. If Ice-Out is declared in February the contest will be cancelled.

[Blyblvrd]

I predict no ice-in this year


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[ITD]

Center Harbor was pretty locked in as of yesterday, so technically the Mount is iced in. Ice out may come in February at this rate.

[John Mercier]

The Mount route is only for Ice Out being declared by Emerson.
The lake has to coat over for him to declare Ice In.

[ITD]

It's the "Ice out" contest not the "ice in" contest and the Mount is definitely iced in.

[fatlazyless]

With it design, size, weight and power, don't you think the M.S. Mount Washington would have the easy ability to cut and move through that relatively thin, weak slushy ice just like a can opener if it really had to do it?

With this in mind, its not really iced in enough to keep it from escaping to open water just like a Coast Guard ice breaker in north Canada waters.

[John Mercier]

The rules of the contest requires Emerson to declare Ice In.
He only does that when the lake is completely glazed over.

He only uses the Mount route when declaring Ice Out.

The Ice Out contest rules requires him to declare Ice IN.

[ITD]

I just drove by Meredith, ice as far as I could see today. Same for Center Harbor. Snowmobiles on the side of 104. Trees covered with snow. Nice day.

[John Mercier]

Obviously not enough for Emerson to make the declaration.

Per Rule #2, he has the month of February to do so.

[ITD]

It's been crappy flying weather for at least a week, should be better by Saturday, maybe he'll get up then. Can't forget the rules...

[camp guy]

Dear, dear FLL, I understand your observations about the M/V Mount Washington being able to power its way through the current ice conditions in Center Harbor (and probably most of the Lake), but this Forum has grown used to the annual Ice-Out Contest, and in order to have 'ice-out' there first must be an 'ice-in'. So, even this year, as questionable as 'ice-in' may be, we must hope for it so we can have he much anticipated annual "Ice-Out Contest.

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

Obviously not enough for Emerson to make the declaration.

Per Rule #2, he has the month of February to do so.

Let’s hope for ice in so you don’t have to obsess about it any longer…

[John Mercier]

I'm not obsessed.
Just read the rules and understood what the Webmaster meant by them.

[jetlag100]

Emerson Aviation declared no Ice In today...Just an FYI

[JayR]

If there is no contest...technically, does this mean my streak of losing the contest ends?!

[WinnisquamZ]

Congratulations


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[John Mercier]

I have March 1st 12:01AM

Emerson told WMUR still a chance if we get some cold by the end of February...

[NH.Solar]

I was skiing on Gunstock both yesterday and today. Yesterday most of the Broads was still wide open and with no sign of any floating ice. Today there were patches of shell ice floating fairly widespread all over the open water, so my guess would be if we hold the cold nights until the end of the week the Broads may finally have a chance to freeze over.

[Bear Guy]

My summary of this year's guesses:
Fine print: two guesses for 2023 were changed to 2024

[Slickcraft]

This morning's observations:

Alton Bay - short section of open water from the bridge half way to the bandstand. Then ice up past the scenic overlook.

Rt 11 to Diamond and Rattlesnake, open with many small chunks of floating ice.

Glendale Bay, open but ice around the town docks.

Smith Cove and Fay's - iced in

Alan

[Descant]

Lily Pond? Crystal Lake?

[Slickcraft]

Originally Posted by Descant

Lily Pond? Crystal Lake?

Early this morning Lily Pond was only about 10% open.

[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by Slickcraft

Early this morning Lily Pond was only about 10% open.

It’s about 75% open now…just went by…

Dan

[phoenix]

Is ice out getting close

[Descant]

Originally Posted by phoenix

Is ice out getting close

I will be de-winterizing my ice maker soon and expect plenty of ice well before the end of March.

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by phoenix

Is ice out getting close

Pretty confident I'll be enjoying green beer on Bear Island by St. Patricks Day.

I can see open water in the distance from my cameras on East Bear. The Glendale docks should be freed up by the weekend.

[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by codeman671

Pretty confident I'll be enjoying green beer on Bear Island by St. Patricks Day.

I can see open water in the distance from my cameras on East Bear. The Glendale docks should be freed up by the weekend.

I already picked up my Eastern and plan on having an umbrella drink this Friday on Welch!!

Dan

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by ishoot308

I already picked up my Eastern and plan on having an umbrella drink this Friday on Welch!!

Dan

Must be nice! My pontoon is at the canvas shop until the end of next week. I need it in the water to access the island until my dock goes in, and since my slips are still locked up with ice the Eastern will sit as well.

[LIforrelaxin]

Anyone have reports on the condition of the ICE on the norther portion of the lake? (Winter Harbor, Moultonborough Bay etc. )

[mas1992bc]

View from my webcam right now. Still iced in, but very dark. That is Spectacle Island - with 19 and 20 mile bay out of view behind it.

[Lakegeezer]

The ice in Moultonboro Bay is getting grayer, but the cracks and bubbles aren't moving around yet. The rain tonight and wind tomorrow could start the end-game. Here's a shot looking north, with the Ambrose Cove barn visible just left of mid-picture.

[CampEye]

My view looking northwest from Camp Island. That's Mink on the top left and Bear on the top right. If I squint, I think I can see the C-Nile puttering between those two to Mark.

[steve-on-mark]

Originally Posted by CampEye

My view looking northwest from Camp Island. That's Mink on the top left and Bear on the top right. If I squint, I think I can see the C-Nile puttering between those two to Mark.

J, all I can say is it must be a bitch when your eyesight goes away. Everyone knows that the C-Nile would be ripping, not puttering, so it must have been some other fool out there!

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[LIforrelaxin]

Originally Posted by steve-on-mark

J, all I can say is it must be a bitch when your eyesight goes away. Everyone knows that the C-Nile would be ripping, not puttering, so it must have been some other fool out there!

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My guess is the C-Nile, is all gassed up and ready to go though isn't it?

[steve-on-mark]

Originally Posted by LIforrelaxin

My guess is the C-Nile, is all gassed up and ready to go though isn't it?

I wouldn't bet the farm on that...

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[Slickcraft]

Today:

Alton Bay – Open water nearly up to the bandstand, then mostly ice up to the scenic overlook. Lots of fractures.

Glendale town docks – ice cubes shore to about 30 feet out, nothing that Dan can’t deal with.

Smith Cove – mostly ice, some open water near shore.


Alan

[fatlazyless]

On Tuesday, March 5 at about noon, on a very gray cloudy day, the NH Fish and Game had ice diving practice training in Center Harbor Bay. About five pick-up trucks, two dive team trailers, about ten(?) officers and a 20' jon boat powered by a large airplane propeller were present at the Center Harbor boat launch, town docks, and parking area.

Watching the 20' ice air boat moving out across the gray ice, the weak gray ice didn't have strength enough to support the boat so it plowed through it and was partially supported by water and partially by soft ice for about 300-yards. F & G divers in complete black wet suits took turns making practice dives through the ice opening created by the air boat. This went on for a few hours time with repeated dive practice training drills with different divers making practice dives out there through the gray ice. Maybe the ice could support a person walking but could not support the weight and power of the ice boat which looked like it was mostly supported by the water, under the ice, or something, as it has the ability to move across ice, water, and soft slushy ice. It made a heck of a lot of loud noise, coming from the engine, as it powers across the weak ice.

So, the ice dive, recovery team doesn't just magically happen, it takes practice and team work to be able to locate and remove a dead drowned body from under the ice, somewhere down there.

[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by Slickcraft

Today:

Alton Bay – Open water nearly up to the bandstand, then mostly ice up to the scenic overlook. Lots of fractures.

Glendale town docks – ice cubes shore to about 30 feet out, nothing that Dan can’t deal with.

Smith Cove – mostly ice, some open water near shore.


Alan

Heading over in a very short while!

Dan

[8gv]

Is it too late to adjust my guess?

[LIforrelaxin]

Originally Posted by steve-on-mark

I wouldn't bet the farm on that...

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I will say I am shocked.... I didn't think C-Nile would be hooked to the truck yet, but gased up and ready to go I didn't think would be out of the question....

[steve-on-mark]

Originally Posted by LIforrelaxin

I will say I am shocked.... I didn't think C-Nile would be hooked to the truck yet, but gased up and ready to go I didn't think would be out of the question....

sometimes life gets in the way of where you want to be and what you want to be doing! Maybe next weekend...it's still early! :-)

[geordie]

If the ice isn't gone by Monday then the higher winds that day should get rid of the last of the ice. Right now the webcams look like they are just showing slush. Unless anyone else sees more ice somewhere?

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by geordie

If the ice isn't gone by Monday then the higher winds that day should get rid of the last of the ice. Right now the webcams look like they are just showing slush. Unless anyone else sees more ice somewhere?

There is still a lot more than just slush out there. Alton Bay looks rough but its not slush. Also a friend a bit further north from us on East Bear sent me some camera shots that show a fair amount of gray ice. I'd say we have a week to go.

[Slickcraft]

Alton Bay still a hold out: mostly ice from the bandstand to the scenic overlook.

Smith Cove: a fair amount of open water, ishoot thinks open to Fay's tomorrow. Our Eastern is now in the water at Fay's but the Monday/Tuesday wind forecast may delay a trip to Welch until Wed.

Alan

[chachee52]

Originally Posted by fatlazyless

On Tuesday, March 5 at about noon, on a very gray cloudy day, the NH Fish and Game had ice diving practice training in Center Harbor Bay. About five pick-up trucks, two dive team trailers, about ten(?) officers and a 20' jon boat powered by a large airplane propeller were present at the Center Harbor boat launch, town docks, and parking area.

Watching the 20' ice air boat moving out across the gray ice, the weak gray ice didn't have strength enough to support the boat so it plowed through it and was partially supported by water and partially by soft ice for about 300-yards. F & G divers in complete black wet suits took turns making practice dives through the ice opening created by the air boat. This went on for a few hours time with repeated dive practice training drills with different divers making practice dives out there through the gray ice. Maybe the ice could support a person walking but could not support the weight and power of the ice boat which looked like it was mostly supported by the water, under the ice, or something, as it has the ability to move across ice, water, and soft slushy ice. It made a heck of a lot of loud noise, coming from the engine, as it powers across the weak ice.

So, the ice dive, recovery team doesn't just magically happen, it takes practice and team work to be able to locate and remove a dead drowned body from under the ice, somewhere down there.

Drove by on Feb 25th and they were out there as well. At first I just thought it was fishermen but then I noticed as I drive by they were really close to the water!! Would love to volunteer one of these times to be a victim and just hang out in the water while they rescue me. I'm sure they don't let just anyone do that, but it's on my bucket list

[fatlazyless]

Originally Posted by chachee52

Drove by on Feb 25th and they were out there as well. At first I just thought it was fishermen but then I noticed as I drive by they were really close to the water!! Would love to volunteer one of these times to be a victim and just hang out in the water while they rescue me. I'm sure they don't let just anyone do that, but it's on my bucket list

What you saw was probably local fire fighters wearing bright red or bright yellow dry suits that was a practice rescue where they drill train for saving someone from drowning.

So, what's the difference between a rescue and a recovery? It could be wearing flotation like a pfd, or a foam noodle belt tied tight around the waist under a coat.

Walking out onto the lake ice can seem so visually safe and solid at first until you go smash, crunch, wack and break through the ice in half a second as it breaks under your weight.

[Slickcraft]

Smith Cove today looking from Fay's dock: Close. Still planning escape on Wednesday.

Alan

[codeman671]

One sliver at the end of the Glendale YC docks to go and we can reach our slips. By the time the Eastern is cleaned this week it will be good to go in.

[Slickcraft]

Alton Bay today- I was surprised with the amount of ice left given the wind. Mostly ice, with many open patches, from the bandstand to at least Loon Cove. Now open at the scenic overlook but the edge of ice may be just below that.

No ice out today. Even if it was, Emerson probably would not fly. The wind at the airport is NW 18 sustained gusts to 31.

Smith Cove - We took just a quick look from the Glendale YC driveway, the ice sheet had moved away from the YC docks. So the ice sheet is free to be moved around by the wind. I do recall that in a recent year the west by NW wind pushed the ice sheet into the neck of the cove. Will take a look from Fay's tomorrow.

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by Slickcraft

Alton Bay today- I was surprised with the amount of ice left given the wind. Mostly ice, with many open patches, from the bandstand to at least Loon Cove. Now open at the scenic overlook but the edge of ice may be just below that.

No ice out today. Even if it was, Emerson probably would not fly. The wind at the airport is NW 18 sustained gusts to 31.

Smith Cove - We took just a quick look from the Glendale YC driveway, the ice sheet had moved away from the YC docks. So the ice sheet is free to be moved around by the wind. I do recall that in a recent year the west by NW wind pushed the ice sheet into the neck of the cove. Will take a look from Fay's tomorrow.

When I headed south this morning, from the scenic overlook it appeared to be out almost to Echo point. Definitely pulling away on the edges, but still ice to the bandstand on the southern end. Our weather station has recorded gusts to 46.8 mph just over the Gilford line.

Lots of ice moving between East Bear and 5/6 Mile. A friend a bit further north has been sharing camera pics all day. We are seeing it roll into our shore and disappear. Lots of wind through early Wednesday and decent daytime temps should still give a solid chance of ice out by the weekend I think.

[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by codeman671

When I headed south this morning, from the scenic overlook it appeared to be out almost to Echo point. Definitely pulling away on the edges, but still ice to the bandstand on the southern end. Our weather station has recorded gusts to 46.8 mph just over the Gilford line.

Wow, you really get the wind up there on that hill!! The highest I recorded today on my weather-station on Welch is 37 MPH...

Dan

[codeman671]

Alton Bay lost a lot overnight. One band left south of Echo Point is the major blockage. About 100 yards north of the bandstand there is a strip of ice holding back a pile of slush. I expect that to go today, and the rest to the north by tomorrow.

I hear the ice in the vicinity of 5 Mile is gone, and Island Services are out and about.

What does Center Harbor and Wolfeboro look like? Thinking Alton Bay may be the hold out.

[DickR]

By late yesterday, the wind had taken out the ice between Long Island and the end of Moultonborough Neck from the bridge down to around FL64. This morning, the rest was gone, down to at least the six-pack and beyond Pleasant Island. I can see some ice off in the distance, in the direction of Tuftonboro Neck.

[LIforrelaxin]

Originally Posted by DickR

By late yesterday, the wind had taken out the ice between Long Island and the end of Moultonborough Neck from the bridge down to around FL64. This morning, the rest was gone, down to at least the six-pack and beyond Pleasant Island. I can see some ice off in the distance, in the direction of Tuftonboro Neck.

This is great news.... looks like on item has completed on my checklist of time to go open the camp.... Still have to contemplate the weather...

[Mike]

Open water as far as one can see in this pic today from Harilla Landing in Moultonborough. Even have a boat in the water.

[webmaster]

Posted 3/12 at 2 pm:

Emerson Aviation

[Slickcraft]

Originally Posted by codeman671

Alton Bay lost a lot overnight. One band left south of Echo Point is the major blockage. About 100 yards north of the bandstand there is a strip of ice holding back a pile of slush. I expect that to go today, and the rest to the north by tomorrow.

I hear the ice in the vicinity of 5 Mile is gone, and Island Services are out and about.

What does Center Harbor and Wolfeboro look like? Thinking Alton Bay may be the hold out.

I agree with code, Alton Bay will probably go out tomorrow. The ice that remains in the area of Loon Cove is short lived.

As viewed from Fay's dock today, Smith Cove is ready for a jail break tomorrow when the wind takes a break.

Alan

[ITD]

Flew over Alton around noon, needs another day or two. I have a picture, but can’t make it small enough to post.

[JB Long Island]

Still some ice in Meredith Bay but view from the top of Red Hill looks pretty clear! Squam looks pretty socked in.

[stingray]

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[stingray]

Originally Posted by JB Long Island

Still some ice in Meredith Bay but view from the top of Red Hill looks pretty clear! Squam looks pretty socked in.

The stat professor said multiple times that all statistical models are wrong but some are useful. Does this model indicate we are experiencing global warming or is it wrong?


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[Biggd]

Originally Posted by stingray

The stat professor said multiple times that all statistical models are wrong but some are useful. Does this model indicate we are experiencing global warming or is it wrong?


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We are experiencing an early boating season.
Hopefully it makes up for last year's sucky rainy summer!

[codeman671]

Alton Bay is still hanging in there...Not today.

[DickR]

Originally Posted by ITD

... I have a picture, but can’t make it small enough to post.

Download & install IrfanView (irfanview@gmx.net), a very nice and free picture viewer. It will let you resize pictures easily.

[Cobaltdeadhead]

Somewhat surprised it wasn't called yesterday. Driving through Alton Bay at 4, it just looked like a couple of patches of slush in the water at Echo Point.

[ishoot308]

At 4:37 pm today!….

Dan