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Old 01-15-2012, 07:33 PM   #101
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Originally Posted by Resident 2B View Post
High pressure will move over us tonight. No isobars, no wind. Wind will drop off to calm between 11 PM and 1 AM, and with the wind going away, the temp will get down well below zero.

High confidence with this.

R2B
Will let you know in the morning what the bay looks like.
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Old 01-16-2012, 07:43 AM   #102
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Will let you know in the morning what the bay looks like.
As of 7:30am Meredith Bay is a mix of 1/2 open water patches and 1/2 slushy patches. The morning sun is doing a number on the slush.
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Old 01-16-2012, 10:36 AM   #103
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Does anyone know what Glendale access is like today? I know it was open yesterday. We could really use a cam at MP headquarters!
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Old 01-16-2012, 10:49 AM   #104
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Default Paugus Bay

Looks like it is frozen today. Meredith Bay to the Broads looks like it is iced over.
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Old 01-16-2012, 02:07 PM   #105
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Oh My God even the Snake Eyes cam is now showing ICE
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Old 01-16-2012, 02:13 PM   #106
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Default Wind and Ice

It does appear that the broads in front of Snake Eyes is icing over... just have to keep the wind down for a while longer. This is fun to watch.... usually ice over happens overnight and we wake up to a frozen lake. It was disappointing to see blue wavy water this morning.

Ripples seem to be in the view as well as either ice or very shiny still water.

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Old 01-16-2012, 02:22 PM   #107
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seems to me like it is ice, looks different than the usual water ripples, but then again I am hoping in praying here
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Old 01-16-2012, 02:26 PM   #108
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seems to me like it is ice, looks different than the usual water ripples, but then again I am hoping in praying here
I am hoping the same..... Click Here to see the last ten Snake Eyes images. It is a good way to see the changes in the last half hour or so.

Http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/snakeeyesall.htm


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Old 01-16-2012, 03:00 PM   #109
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Merrymeeting finally iced over today too. It is very thin, but no open water that I can see.

I drove on Rt 495 today. Crossing over the Merrimack you could see large pieces of ice drifting in the water. First time I've seen that this year. Clearly the water is cold enough...
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Old 01-16-2012, 03:12 PM   #110
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Default Wind Coming...

I am afraid the wind coming in on Wednesday will take out any ice that freezes over tonight and tomorrow...
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Old 01-16-2012, 03:22 PM   #111
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Default Only if there is open water

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I am afraid the wind coming in on Wednesday will take out any ice that freezes over tonight and tomorrow...
If there is open water, the wind eats away at the edges of the thin ice. If there is all ice it stands a much better chance of holding. It is so discouraging to see ice one day and big waves the next... Unless it is April!

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Old 01-16-2012, 04:01 PM   #112
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Default Open Water

Lots of ripples showing now on Snake Eyes.
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Old 01-16-2012, 04:02 PM   #113
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Time to fire up my new Ford Explorer and head out to check the ice thickness.
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Old 01-16-2012, 04:58 PM   #114
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A GMC Jimmy also works well for this purpose.
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Old 01-16-2012, 06:58 PM   #115
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Default Boat trip this afternoon

Just came in from a boat trip: west side of Bear to Mark, Timber and Lockes. Then returned up the Broads to Three Mile, Bear Mail Dock and back to west side of Bear. 16' fiberglass outboard - lots of open water and never more than 3/4" of ice, easy to break up. Maybe ice-out before ice-in???
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Old 01-16-2012, 07:01 PM   #116
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Originally Posted by Island Girl View Post
Lots of ripples showing now on Snake Eyes.
Somebody said yesterday he didn't think the lake would freeze last night...

Todays satellite pic showing most area lakes have ice...except the Big Lake and Sebago Lake. Not uncommon at all, IMO.

BT
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Old 01-16-2012, 07:14 PM   #117
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Just came in from a boat trip: west side of Bear to Mark, Timber and Lockes. Then returned up the Broads to Three Mile, Bear Mail Dock and back to west side of Bear. 16' fiberglass outboard - lots of open water and never more than 3/4" of ice, easy to break up. Maybe ice-out before ice-in???
Dislike!

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Old 01-17-2012, 06:39 AM   #118
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Somebody said yesterday he didn't think the lake would freeze last night...

Todays satellite pic showing most area lakes have ice...except the Big Lake and Sebago Lake. Not uncommon at all, IMO.

BT
Thanks nice visual. It looks like Squam is open, too.
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Old 01-17-2012, 07:29 AM   #119
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Today's image will be different. Note that on the one posted yesterday, Merrymeeting Lake (dark spot to the right of Alton Bay finger) shows as open.

Until yesterday, it was. But yesterday it skimmed over, with still clear, dark ice. I expect this would show as "open" in a satellite image.

This morning the thin ice is covered with a light layer of snow so it's now white. However, there are already dark spots showing from water coming up along ice cracks. With above freezing temps in the next 24 hours, rain predicted, and then high winds, it will be interesting to see if it lasts.

Next weeks predicted warm temps will also have an impact.
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Old 01-17-2012, 09:30 AM   #120
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today's time lapse on the Weirs cam, just the short light up time there has been today, shows the ice and snow receeding, man am I bummed
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Old 01-17-2012, 01:14 PM   #121
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This year is very similar to 2007. We were looking to buy a place on the lake and ended up taking a boat ride with our realtors on 1/18, by 2/14 we came over on snowmobiles to look again. I believe it will ice over but may be a short window of time.
2007 ice out was April 23rd.
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Old 01-17-2012, 03:48 PM   #122
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It is pouring here in Milton. The temps for the next week do not look overly favorable for rapid ice growth. Next week sounds even warmer.

What do things look like from either Glendale to Mark or Meredith/Sheps to Mark? I need to get out if possible.
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Old 01-17-2012, 04:10 PM   #123
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We stopped by Glendale today. Thin ice from the docks part way to Pig then some open water. Some ice toward light 26 but mostly open water by light 26. Looking from Belknap Point mostly open water toward Welch, Round and Timber.
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Old 01-17-2012, 04:10 PM   #124
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Quote:
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This year is very similar to 2007. We were looking to buy a place on the lake and ended up taking a boat ride with our realtors on 1/18, by 2/14 we came over on snowmobiles to look again. I believe it will ice over but may be a short window of time.
2007 ice out was April 23rd.
Welcome to Bear Island...
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Old 01-18-2012, 09:43 AM   #125
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I woke up about 5 AM this morning because the wind sounded like the house was going to blow down. With the almost 40 degree temps yesterday and all the rain, I expected to see the ice on Merrymeeting mostly gone once the sun was up.

Much to my surprise, the lake is still mostly iced over. A few spots have opened up and all the snow cover is gone. But despite the wind, the open spots don't seem to be getting any larger. The cold temps of the next few days should lock it in.
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Old 01-18-2012, 10:13 AM   #126
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I woke up about 5 AM this morning because the wind sounded like the house was going to blow down. With the almost 40 degree temps yesterday and all the rain, I expected to see the ice on Merrymeeting mostly gone once the sun was up.

Much to my surprise, the lake is still mostly iced over. A few spots have opened up and all the snow cover is gone. But despite the wind, the open spots don't seem to be getting any larger. The cold temps of the next few days should lock it in.
SWEET!!!
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Old 01-18-2012, 11:40 AM   #127
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I just came back from a drive up to Gilford. Alton Bay is iced almost to the mouth, but it looks paper thin. The broads are completely open and the wind is howling. I followed the shore roads up to Gilford and saw nothing for real ice even along the edges. Nothing at Glendale looking out towards Mark, Round and Timber. Just a bit of ice between the dock fingers.

I stopped at a property in behind Barn Door, there was ice piled up in that sheltered area behind but you could see whitecaps beyond. Stopped at Rum Point as well, wide open and windy.
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Old 01-18-2012, 04:06 PM   #128
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Wind Wind Go Away, Come on back another day
Wind Wind Go Away, Come on back another day
Wind Wind Go Away, Come on back another day
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Old 01-18-2012, 05:14 PM   #129
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Anyone have eyes on Meredith Bay? How's it holding up to all this wind?
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Old 01-18-2012, 06:12 PM   #130
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bear Island South View Post
This year is very similar to 2007. We were looking to buy a place on the lake and ended up taking a boat ride with our realtors on 1/18, by 2/14 we came over on snowmobiles to look again. I believe it will ice over but may be a short window of time.
2007 ice out was April 23rd.


am i right assuming that is Island Service Company's boat?
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Old 01-18-2012, 08:58 PM   #131
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Default Winnisquam

A lot of the ice broke up on Winnisquam and in Meredith a lot of the bay was back open again and one of the bob houses that was next to Lago's is gone.
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Old 01-19-2012, 08:10 AM   #132
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We finally have ice-in on Merrymeeting Lake this morning. While the wind did open a large hole in the ice in the middle of the lake yesterday, it is completely frozen over today and looks very solid. WIth no temps above freezing for the next several days, it isn't going anywhere by thicker.

I expect Winni will follow a similar path. Seems a lot llike 06/07. A late-January ice-in.
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Old 01-19-2012, 08:31 AM   #133
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If anyone is in meredith today..can you check on the bay...take some snapshots/ real cold lastnight and its at 1 degree with no wind..how's it looking?
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Old 01-19-2012, 09:18 AM   #134
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Quote:
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am i right assuming that is Island Service Company's boat?
yes it is...Buddy brought us over from Cattle Landing.
We had to break through a few hundred feet of ice before we hit open water
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Old 01-19-2012, 10:04 AM   #135
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Are there any companies like Emerson that fly over the lake to declare "Ice-In"?
Wondering if the Broads were iced over today???
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Old 01-19-2012, 10:28 AM   #136
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Default Paugus bay

Paugus bay is iced over and it looked like the area between the end Meredith and Weirs was iced over. I didn't have to drive down to the docks so I'm not sure what the bay looks like.
Really ugly looking ice though and the forecast is for temps in the 40's next week maybe near 50 for Monday.
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Old 01-19-2012, 10:53 AM   #137
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The bay is locked in looks like all the way to the weirs...hope this helps
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Old 01-19-2012, 11:11 AM   #138
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Meredith Bay just re-iced in last night, because most of it was open around 4:30PM yesterday.
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Old 01-19-2012, 12:12 PM   #139
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Paugus bay is iced over and it looked like the area between the end Meredith and Weirs was iced over. I didn't have to drive down to the docks so I'm not sure what the bay looks like.
Really ugly looking ice though and the forecast is for temps in the 40's next week maybe near 50 for Monday.
I agree with BR, Monday is not looking good, in fact most of next week looks to be in the 40's during the day. Monday is calling for 50 and rain. Looks like mid-Feb Ice-in now if it even ever happens.
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Old 01-19-2012, 01:19 PM   #140
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Default Ice

With the current conditions mixed in with the forecast for the next 3 days, I expect that your outlook may be pessimistic. It remains to be seen but in my opinion we will have enough build up between now and Monday to withstand Monday.

For the record, Monday is projected to be overcast/light snow, this will not have the negative impact of a bright sunny day.

Hang in there!
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Old 01-19-2012, 01:56 PM   #141
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I agree with BR, Monday is not looking good, in fact most of next week looks to be in the 40's during the day. Monday is calling for 50 and rain. Looks like mid-Feb Ice-in now if it even ever happens.
Where are you getting that forecast?? Meredith on Monday: high of 36 with light rain/freezing rain.
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Old 01-19-2012, 09:29 PM   #142
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Where are you getting that forecast?? Meredith on Monday: high of 36 with light rain/freezing rain.
We were just talking about how up and down the numbers have been this year. One day they are calling for 40 the next day 30's and we wind up in the teen's. But yes they were calling for 40's at least 3 days next week and now it's down to mid 30's with rain on monday.
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Old 01-19-2012, 09:31 PM   #143
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bear Island South View Post
yes it is...Buddy brought us over from Cattle Landing.
We had to break through a few hundred feet of ice before we hit open water
thats my dad lol
..



great pictures and a positive update.. glad to see the bay looking icy
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Old 01-20-2012, 07:15 AM   #144
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Default Ice-In Sunrises

Ice showing on most of the webcams - can we declare ice-in
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Old 01-20-2012, 09:52 AM   #145
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Default ice

anyone know if it is frozen over near ellacoya, i know thats usually one of the last places to freeze?
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Old 01-20-2012, 12:16 PM   #146
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Default Broads Ice

That skim of ice didn't hold up. Must have been windy yesterday. I hope the ice that's there now can hold up through next week's warm up and wind. Snow now would be bad.
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Old 01-20-2012, 12:35 PM   #147
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Photo taken today from Belknap Point Road looking out between Welch and Forty Islands. It looks about the same looking out from Ellacoya toward the Broads. A lot of blue water out there.

The area looking out from Glendale is skimmed over out past light 26.
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Old 01-20-2012, 07:50 PM   #148
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Quote:
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Photo taken today from Belknap Point Road looking out between Welch and Forty Islands. It looks about the same looking out from Ellacoya toward the Broads. A lot of blue water out there.

The area looking out from Glendale is skimmed over out past light 26.
That's a nice shot of the lake right there Slickcraft. Thanks !
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Old 01-20-2012, 08:43 PM   #149
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Default Ice in

Quote:
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Lots of ripples showing now on Snake Eyes.
Can't wait to see those Winnipesaukee Webcams tomorrow
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Old 01-22-2012, 10:04 AM   #150
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Looks like the whole lake is frozen over. Hopefully it is thick enough to take the heat this week
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Old 01-22-2012, 10:36 AM   #151
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It's looking pretty good up there!

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Old 01-22-2012, 11:44 AM   #152
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Default Todays satellite view....

very promising....we'll see....

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Old 01-23-2012, 09:00 AM   #153
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Are those snowmobile tracks showing on the ice on SnakeEyes? On the ice that was totally open water less than 2 days ago?
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Old 01-23-2012, 09:03 AM   #154
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I saw that as well this morning, would be very surprised if they were wow those or that person was lucky
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Old 01-23-2012, 09:37 AM   #155
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Are those snowmobile tracks showing on the ice on SnakeEyes? On the ice that was totally open water less than 2 days ago?
I believe they are cracks in the ice with water seeping through
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Old 01-24-2012, 01:09 AM   #156
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http://www.citizen.com/news/laconia_...9bb30f31a.html
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Old 01-24-2012, 08:56 AM   #157
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Default Ice In...for now

Good Morning to Everyone,
Having just signed on this would be my first time posting a forum for all to read. This past Sunday I declared "Ice in" on the big lake. While we have not been out yet today I would not be surprised that the areas that were last to freeze Saturday night and Sunday in the Broads were to reopen today with temps in the 40's and Sunshine. Not to worry for those Ice enthusiast, It will return as the winter progresses.
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Old 01-24-2012, 10:52 AM   #158
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Default Welcome DavidEA

Welcome to the forum David, it is always great to have first hand information.

Looking out from Belknap point this morning I did not see open water however there was a layer of water on top of what ice there is.
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Old 01-24-2012, 11:35 AM   #159
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A lot of the cameras seem to not be updated today, or in the last few days. Minge Cove cam show things opening up. I will be curious to see what the rattlesnakecam looks like by the end of the day if it comes back online.
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Old 01-24-2012, 12:07 PM   #160
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Default Snake Eyes

I am not sure why Snake Eyes is not updating... I am trying to find out if there is a power outage on the island. I don't think anyone is living there this year so that would eliminate any immediate help.

I was thinking of starting an ice-out thread.
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Old 01-25-2012, 05:58 PM   #161
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Anyone have a view of Meredith Bay?

I'm wondering if there is any chance that the Pond Hockey Classic, scheduled for Feb 3-5 (ummm, next weekend) in Meredith has any chance of happening.

It looks like the forecast for the next week is wintery, but up to high 30's during the day and mid 20's at night.

I'm just not confident that Meredith Bay will support 16 playing surfaces, each covered with hockey players, dozens of sponsor sheds, warming huts, vendor buildings, etc., etc.

Any thoughts or projections???????
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Old 01-25-2012, 07:18 PM   #162
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Anyone have a view of Meredith Bay?

I'm wondering if there is any chance that the Pond Hockey Classic, scheduled for Feb 3-5 (ummm, next weekend) in Meredith has any chance of happening.

It looks like the forecast for the next week is wintery, but up to high 30's during the day and mid 20's at night.

I'm just not confident that Meredith Bay will support 16 playing surfaces, each covered with hockey players, dozens of sponsor sheds, warming huts, vendor buildings, etc., etc.

Any thoughts or projections???????
Check the thread that deals with it here.....

http://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums/...ad.php?t=13467

BT
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Old 01-25-2012, 08:19 PM   #163
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A trip today along Rt. 11 from Minge Cove in West Alton to Gilford showed the lake to be solid all the way across. We could see no areas of open water. It's impossible to tell how thick the ice is, but the rainwater that was sitting on top of the ice yesterday had frozen overnight in all areas we could see.
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Old 01-25-2012, 09:35 PM   #164
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Default Meredith Bay

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Anyone have a view of Meredith Bay?

I'm wondering if there is any chance that the Pond Hockey Classic, scheduled for Feb 3-5 (ummm, next weekend) in Meredith has any chance of happening.

It looks like the forecast for the next week is wintery, but up to high 30's during the day and mid 20's at night.

I'm just not confident that Meredith Bay will support 16 playing surfaces, each covered with hockey players, dozens of sponsor sheds, warming huts, vendor buildings, etc., etc.

Any thoughts or projections???????

Just spoke with my Parents on Pleasant Street. They believe the tournament has already been moved to Waukewan ( I am pretty sure he meant Waukewan) where 17 rinks have been set up. He also mentioned that there were 2 rinks set up on Winni but I would not expect the being used.

The Ice is there but not thick enough yet according to them and they are monitoring daily.

I believe we will have a small gain but still a net gain in ice this week but I do not see the chance for an event based on the warm daytime temps.

I think we are looking good for the Derby at this point but I have no idea what the LT forecast is and that will be the deciding factor. Supposedly Meredith Rotary was having a meeting tonight in regard to the schedule.
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Old 01-26-2012, 07:15 AM   #165
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am i right assuming that is Island Service Company's boat?
Winniboy, I know Island Services does a lot of island work during the winter month's, have they started any yet? If so how are crossing the ice?
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Old 01-26-2012, 12:06 PM   #166
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Winniboy, I know Island Services does a lot of island work during the winter month's, have they started any yet? If so how are crossing the ice?
Still not on the island yet, they have a project on bear for the winter building a new house. Ice is to think for boats but to thin to cross (safely) with snowmobiles. they are waiting for the ice to solid up a little bit, if it doesn't they can break out the fan boat.
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Old 01-26-2012, 12:20 PM   #167
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Default Still too thin

For a lot of the lake, the ice is still too thin for even the air boats. They weigh a lot and will break through, creating rivers of water. The wind can use these rivers to break up what ice there is and the lake will never freeze. Given the forecast for the next week, growing much ice is iffy at best.

In a couple of days we will start with our ice-out guesses. How about March 1st?? !!!

IG
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Old 01-26-2012, 12:31 PM   #168
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For a lot of the lake, the ice is still too thin for even the air boats. They weigh a lot and will break through, creating rivers of water. The wind can use these rivers to break up what ice there is and the lake will never freeze. Given the forecast for the next week, growing much ice is iffy at best.

In a couple of days we will start with our ice-out guesses. How about March 1st?? !!!

IG
The air boats can go out on water if needed. We will not be going out if not needed. id say april 1st
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Old 01-26-2012, 12:36 PM   #169
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Default Understood

Yup, drove one myself s few years back! As the ice gets thin, I love the undulating ice behind the air boat. It looks like waves of water but is really waves of thin punky ice. I think i have a movie of riding in the airboat somewhere on http://rattlesnakecam.com/pictures.htm. If not I will put one there in the next day or so.

CA
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Old 01-26-2012, 12:54 PM   #170
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Some airboats dont do as much damage to the ice. The yellow 1000 Islands that I had was great. I could easily traverse from water to ice without plowing through like the standard square hulls do. I rode in the ISS airboat last spring a week or so before ice-out, it is the traditional flat bottom square nose style. It had a tough time getting on top of the ice, granted there were 5 of us in the boat.

March 1 sounds great to me!
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Old 01-26-2012, 03:03 PM   #171
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Default Looking for Info

I'm new here to the forum, but have been keeping a watchful eye trying to find out how the ice is developing on the lake. Me and my family come up each year (about 15 years now) for the derby and we would like to fish the channel by Governors Island. I know there is usually open water under the bridge but what does the rest of the nearby area look like? I'd like to get out to the point in between Governors Island and Weir's beach.
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Old 01-26-2012, 05:06 PM   #172
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Still not on the island yet, they have a project on bear for the winter building a new house. Ice is to think for boats but to thin to cross (safely) with snowmobiles. they are waiting for the ice to solid up a little bit, if it doesn't they can break out the fan boat.
Poor Erne is never going to get his camp finished
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Old 01-26-2012, 07:57 PM   #173
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Originally Posted by Island Girl View Post
For a lot of the lake, the ice is still too thin for even the air boats. They weigh a lot and will break through, creating rivers of water. The wind can use these rivers to break up what ice there is and the lake will never freeze. Given the forecast for the next week, growing much ice is iffy at best.

In a couple of days we will start with our ice-out guesses. How about March 1st?? !!!

IG
You know if that ever happens, we will be the World Poster child for global warming.
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Old 01-26-2012, 08:46 PM   #174
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Default Welcome TJ Ned

Hope you enjoy the forum and the lakes region.
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Old 01-26-2012, 09:06 PM   #175
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Poor Erne is never going to get his camp finished
oh itl get done, they were still on boats untill last week or so, making good progress on it.
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Old 01-27-2012, 10:10 AM   #176
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Default Apologies for this question

Have there ever been two ice outs?
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Old 01-27-2012, 11:29 AM   #177
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Have there ever been two ice outs?
Great question! Yes, there were - but not officially. I forget the year, but ice-out was declared, the Mt. Washington routes were open - the winner of the contest was declared. Then, some wind blew an ice-flow back into the boat's route and unofficially it was not ice-out any more. True story, but the official statistics of ice-out over the years do not reflect it.
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Old 01-27-2012, 11:37 AM   #178
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Default yup

I remember that, Lakegeezer. I think it was mid-week and the ice floes were gone by the weekend when I opened my camp... So no danger of my boat being hit by a wandering berg!

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Old 01-27-2012, 06:14 PM   #179
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How's the ice doing lately with the milder temps and the rain?
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Old 01-28-2012, 04:14 PM   #180
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Default Glendale

We took a look by the town docks today, there is water between the docks but iced over elsewhere. No indication that anyone has been out onto the ice to fish nor has anyone attempted to get a bob house onto the ice from there. The town has plowed what snow there was so as to partially block access to the area left of the docks where bob houses are normally towed onto the ice.
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Old 01-28-2012, 07:21 PM   #181
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I was out on Merrymeeting today. A layer of water, covered by slushy ice.

A friend who was fishing said the holes he drilled were ~6". It appears that the rain yesterday is still sitting on top of the ice. The ice below must be fairly good or the water would have drained by now. Then the sleet/ice of late yesterday covered over the top.

At the same time, there are a few areas of the lake that were iced over before that are now open (areas where streams or springs enter the lake). I also saw parts of the Merrymeeting River that had opened up that were frozen last week.

Finally, I drove over the Merrimack River today. Two weeks ago saw large ice floes in the water. Today, nothing, just water.
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Old 01-29-2012, 09:32 AM   #182
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I was there Friday. Drove by Meredith and through Center Harbor and up to Moultonborough. Certainly was pleny of open water no matter where we looked.
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Old 01-29-2012, 11:31 AM   #183
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Well, I admit that my winter prediction made a month ago did not materialize. It got cold in the middle of the month as I expected, but the cold did not last long and from there it warmed up again, something I did not think would happen.

Looking forward, this coming week the temperatures will be above normal and the following week looks to be below normal. After that, it looks like the temperatures will moderate and be at or above normal into early March. This is not to say there will not be any cold days, but on average it does not look to be all that cold. This winter just does not seem to want to act like a New England winter.

As you all can see, the days are getting longer and the sun is getting stronger. In fact the historically coldest time of the year is Jan 22 to Jan 26 and that is now behind us. All of this will result in only a minor building of the ice, most likely between next weekend and the derby. After that the higher sun angle and the longer days will start to kick in.

Again, I could be wrong and I have been more wrong this year than I have been right with these long range forecasts. Sorry about that. I also realize this is bad news to some and good news to others, but in the end it looks like this will go down as a very mild winter.

R2B
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Old 01-29-2012, 11:41 AM   #184
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I hear ya R2B... With temps expected near 50 with rain on Wednesday and pushing 40 on Thursday, there won't be any real ice making going on only ice losing!

I decided to head to Pittsburg next weekend and try and get some snowmobiling in. Even up there trail conditions are iffy at best but I figured if I can't ride I can ice fish the Connecticut lakes! Plenty of ice up there!

Dan

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Old 01-30-2012, 09:18 AM   #185
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Is it my eyes, or does all the ice on the cams look to be solid, except snake eye of course. but including the Weirs cam???
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Old 01-30-2012, 09:30 AM   #186
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Well, I admit that my winter prediction made a month ago did not materialize. It got cold in the middle of the month as I expected, but the cold did not last long and from there it warmed up again, something I did not think would happen.

Looking forward, this coming week the temperatures will be above normal and the following week looks to be below normal. After that, it looks like the temperatures will moderate and be at or above normal into early March. This is not to say there will not be any cold days, but on average it does not look to be all that cold. This winter just does not seem to want to act like a New England winter.

As you all can see, the days are getting longer and the sun is getting stronger. In fact the historically coldest time of the year is Jan 22 to Jan 26 and that is now behind us. All of this will result in only a minor building of the ice, most likely between next weekend and the derby. After that the higher sun angle and the longer days will start to kick in.

Again, I could be wrong and I have been more wrong this year than I have been right with these long range forecasts. Sorry about that. I also realize this is bad news to some and good news to others, but in the end it looks like this will go down as a very mild winter.

R2B
I'm not going to let you go down with the ship alone. I was right there with you making the same predictions. This weather pattern and trying to predict it using the tools we always use is very frustrating, to say the least. I'm ready to write this "non-winter" off and move on to an early Spring.

BT
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Old 01-30-2012, 10:36 AM   #187
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Is it my eyes, or does all the ice on the cams look to be solid, except snake eye of course. but including the Weirs cam???
After driving around a lot yesterday looking at property on the southern end of the lake, there is ice everywhere but I wouldnt head out just yet...
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Old 01-30-2012, 10:40 AM   #188
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I'm not going to let you go down with the ship alone. I was right there with you making the same predictions. BT
You can add me to that list as well.Can we get through one whole week with normal/below avg temps?This is a rollercoaster winter if I ever saw one.
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Old 01-30-2012, 12:44 PM   #189
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Default runway

Is the aircraft runway going to open? The ice looks pretty safe. Have to move one bob house if they do open it.
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Old 01-30-2012, 01:46 PM   #190
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I'm ready to write this "non-winter" off and move on to an early Spring.

BT
As of today only 50 more days until spring.
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Old 01-30-2012, 02:18 PM   #191
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Is the aircraft runway going to open? The ice looks pretty safe. Have to move one bob house if they do open it.
Brian in the corner store would probably know, he is one of the runway plow guys.
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Old 01-31-2012, 09:22 AM   #192
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Does anyone have ice thickness reports?
I hear there are a few bob houses in Meredith Bay.
How about the Cattle Landing area?
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Old 01-31-2012, 09:29 AM   #193
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There are a few bobhouses in Meredith Bay, but they're no more than 50 feet off shore. The furtheset out I've seen someone on Meredtih Bay was a fellow (maybe winniboy?) taking down some posts and ropes that were markling off an area for the pond hockey tournament (which has been moved to Waukewan). That person was a probably couple hundred yards out. All I can say is use extreme caution on Meredith Bay. Maybe winniboy knows the exact ice thickness out a few hundred yards...
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Old 02-02-2012, 08:36 AM   #194
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There are spots on the Merrymeeting River that are open that were not there last week. The Downings Landing 1 webcam seems to show the ice receeding from the bridge in the Bay.

While we have a long way to go (ask Phil!), be careful on the ice this weekend.
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Old 02-02-2012, 06:23 PM   #195
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Coming up Satuday morning, hand auger at the ready to drill a few holes at Cattle Landing. Skeptical that it will be good news but want to get a first hand look leading up to the Derby. Will post what I learn.
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Old 02-02-2012, 07:54 PM   #196
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Horse Island, close to the Cattle Landing town dock, has open water between it and the mainland, plus there's some open water on the outer pointy end of Horse Island too. The ice out in the middle out towards Mark Island looks kinda soft and grey but I did see one lone snowmobiler roaring around on a two-stroke sno-mo out that way today at about noon.

The new Cattle Landing floating dock has a water circulator so's it has some open water, too.
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Old 02-03-2012, 08:28 AM   #197
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Ice between Cow and the mainland is also looking grey, kinda like late Feb early March ice. Also had some rather large pieces break up and move into the open areas where a stream and our de-icers keep open. But on a good note I have heard threee weather guys say a foot of snow or more on around the 17th. Bad for ice but good for the riding.
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Old 02-03-2012, 02:20 PM   #198
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Look at the Weirs Cam time lapse for today, Feb 3rd and you will see a great example of the ice receding, even though the temperature is below freezing. There is a good sized piece in the process of breaking off the main ice sheet. You can see it fracture and then move back and forth.

This is due to the stronger sun we get this time of the year. With the passing of Feb 2nd, Groundhog Day, that ended the darkest quarter of the year. We are now in a transitional quarter of the year where the sun angle and the sun light increases the most. With thin ice and little snow cover, the sun will eat away at the ice more and more each day. The ice is also noticeably more grey today than it was a few days ago, meaning more of the sun's rays are being absorbed and not reflected. This also adds to the ice melting.

Be very safe out there!!!!

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Old 02-03-2012, 02:49 PM   #199
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Default Paugus bay

Just drove by Paugus bay and there was only one ice house on the whole bay.
Several cracks with water showing and lots of open water along the shore where it is usually frozen to within 10-20 feet of bubblers.
My .02, I think the derby is a really bad idea given the conditions. Way to little usable ice. Even Lilly pond didn't look all that great, it looked very thin by the towers.
Hope it all turns out for the best..
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Old 02-03-2012, 08:31 PM   #200
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We saw a couple pickup trucks this afternoon out on the ice next to some bob houses on Alton Bay. Before today we'd only seen snowmobiles and ATVs out there.
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