Calling it a "big daddy" next week???

[eyenotall777]

CLA, ROSE, R2B -
I having been hearing and reading about a very big storm next week, what can you tell us????? Please NO RAIN!!!!

[MAXUM]

As depressing as it is to read, accuweather and weather.com are both thinking this will track to close to the coast and unfortunately that could mean something other than snow. I hope they are wrong. This far out I can't imagine their level of certainty is all that good as to where this thing goes.

Then again I'm no weather man!

[CanisLupusArctos]

All I will offer is this: The overall trend is more in favor of cold than warm, and when the warmth has tried to intrude it has produced ice. But this is still New England and when it comes to weather, anything can happen here at any time.

This is from tonight's forecast discussion from NWS-Gray.

THE BIG CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FROM A COLD TROUGH TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE WILL BE DRIVEN BY A SHARP TROUGH CURRENTLY
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS WESTERN CANADA
THIS WEEKEND THEN DIVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
MONDAY. THE SYSTEM ROLLS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...AND
THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE SURFACE CYCLONE TO TRACK WEST OF
THE AREA WHILE DEEPENING. A BIG SLUG OF PRECIPITATION...MUCH OF IT
IN THE FORM OF RAIN NEARER TO THE COAST...IS BEING FORECAST BY ALL
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE DEEPENING SYSTEM...WIND WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. DRIER
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM ROTATES INTO LABRADOR.

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by eyenotall777

CLA, ROSE, R2B -
I having been hearing and reading about a very big storm next week, what can you tell us????? Please NO RAIN!!!!

Very sorry, but it looks like an "inside runer" to me. This means the center of the storm looks to be going west of us, at least at this time. When a storm goes west of us, since low pressure areas spin anti-clockwise here in the northern hemisphere, it puts us in the warm sector, and although it might start as snow, it will change to rain around here when we are in the warm sector, even in the winter.

I do not know how big this storm will be right now. I am not yet sold that it will be a big storm. It looks like a moderate storm to me right now.

I wish I had better news, but the storm next Tuesday looks like mostly rain.

R2B

[chipj29]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

Very sorry, but it looks like an "inside runer" to me. This means the center of the storm looks to be going west of us, at least at this time. When a storm goes west of us, since low pressure areas spin anti-clockwise here in the northern hemisphere, it puts us in the warm sector, and although it might start as snow, it will change to rain around here when we are in the warm sector, even in the winter.

I do not know how big this storm will be right now. I am not yet sold that it will be a big storm. It looks like a moderate storm to me right now.

I wish I had better news, but the storm next Tuesday looks like mostly rain.

R2B

Now this I can agree with. Much to my dismay, I don't think we are going to see any snow from this. 40 and rain looks to be on the menu.

[chipj29]

Originally Posted by chipj29

Now this I can agree with. Much to my dismay, I don't think we are going to see any snow from this. 40 and rain looks to be on the menu.

I should have known better than to speak before having my morning look at the info. Looks like last night model runs took the storm much further east. What was once a storm going up the Hudson River valley to our west, giving us rain, is now a storm heading over Boston up to NS. Interesting stuff...will be keeping a close eye on the next model runs to see if it trends back west, or further east. Gonna be a close call either way.

[eyenotall777]

Thank you for all your responses. It seems as though most weather buffs, not just here, are being very guarded in the forecast area for Tuesday It seems like a tricky one. So if the further east the track goes, the more chance of snow? The snow has been setting up just right for all kinds of winter sports. It would be just a "bummer"!!!!

PLEASE......"EVERYONE DO A SNOW DANCE"

[chipj29]

Originally Posted by eyenotall777

Thank you for all your responses. It seems as though most weather buffs, not just here, are being very guarded in the forecast area for Tuesday It seems like a tricky one. So if the further east the track goes, the more chance of snow? The snow has been setting up just right for all kinds of winter sports. It would be just a "bummer"!!!!

PLEASE......"EVERYONE DO A SNOW DANCE"

Guarded...no. Tricky...yes.
As has been mentioned here, there are many different forecast models in use. With many storms (if not all storms) each model has a different solution for the storm in question. It is up to the meterologist (or weather buff like us) to interpret the models to determine what the storm might do. This interpretation is based on several things, such as past performance of the models, the current atmospheric conditions, in depth knowledge of the forecast area, or just plain instinct. Yes, instinct. Sometimes the weather guys just go with their gut.
I will give you an example. This past storm, the Fox 25 weather guy (Kevin L) was on air saying that the model was saying the storm was going to go west a bit, but he was going with his gut, that it was going to stay south and east. Well, it turned out he was wrong. But that is not always the case.

Anyway, this winter, the Euro model (ECMWF) has been pretty accurate in it's medium ranges. Up until last night, the Euro had next weeks storm going as far west as the Great Lakes. This would have us in rain (rain even up into southern Quebec! However the other models have had the storm farther east. Now, the Euro last night came in, and it moved the storm substantially to the east. Of course the storm is still 4 days out, so anything can happen. But the models are starting to come into their more accurate range, and are also starting to agree with each other.

Will it go east, giving us all snow?
Will it go west, giving us all rain?
Or will it go somewhere in between, giving us snow to ice to rain?

No one knows. We can guess, but we won't know for sure until the storm is over.

PS...wanna see a guarded forecast? Check out this mornings discussion at WHDH channel 7. http://www1.whdh.com/weather/ Look at the bottom, where it says "Disclosure". Yesterday the mets there were saying wind, rain, and 50 degrees in Boston. Now she is basically saying that may not be accurate.

[chipj29]

OK my last post on this storm...for now. Just came across this National Weather Service discussion. A lot of times there stuff can be hard to read, but this one explains what I was saying above much better than I ever could:
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY MONDAY AND THEN MOVE UP THE EAST COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS BRING THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THIS LOW MOVING JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER EAST WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...WHERE MODEL RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAD IT GOING FURTHER TO THE WEST. ECMWF MODEL SHOWED THE BIGGEST DEPARTURE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WHEN IT HAD THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW HAS THE LOW TRACKING JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. THE EASTERN TREND OF THE MODELS WITH THIS LOW FOR TUESDAY HAS THE IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR REGION BEING COLDER ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS FAR OUT
THERE STILL IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT THE EXACT TRACK OF
THIS LOW WILL BE...AND THUS HOW HEAVY WILL THE PRECIPITATION BE
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW WERE TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WHICH WOULD IMPLY THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS OUR REGION.

[Blue Thunder]

This is typical computer model flip flopping. Having said that, this one "could" be different. I would love to see what Walt Drag form the Taunton NWS Office has to say. I'm sure he will weigh in at some point in the discussion portion of the NWS forecast.

From what I've read, this will be a very large storm, no matter what P-type it takes.

The "Big Daddy" reference is from Henry Margusity of Accuweather.com fame. He tends to hype things way in advance.

BT

[Resident 2B]

Earlier this winter, a few folks were wondering why there was very little weather discussion this winter. Several of us responded with words effectively saying that the weather was boring this winter so far.

Well, it is getting much more interesting! For the first time this winter the upper air "jets" look like they might be coming together. When this happens, there is often a big storm. At this point, I do not totally buy into all three coming together, so Henry's "Big Storm" is not a certain thing, yet. I do believe we will see a storm, how big is the question.

The most interesting thing right now is storm track. Models shifted the track significantly east in their runs last night. However, the storm is 4 days out and model shifts for one run do not define the track. So, if the future runs hold with the models eastward shift, we could get a snow storm on Monday night into Tuesday night.

I believe the next few days will see the models shifting more westward, as they often do this time of the year. However, that is just a 'gut' call. If this happens, whatever the size of the storm, it would be more wet than white.

Bottom line is we owe "Mother Nature and the Models" (sounds like a great name for a girl band) a big thank you for finally giving us something interesting to talk about.

In two days time, we should have a better feel for what is most likely to happen. Until then, we can enjoy the discussion. It is finally interesting!

R2B

[AC2717]

I appreciate this information a lot, in fact I look to this forum before I comment on the weather and often say to my wife, "That's not what the forum says" she looks at me funny

I was wondering if you guys could include in your forecasts, the Boston area as well, as a lot of us are from that area and I am sure it would be a great addition to your already wonderful forecasts, the Lakes region is first and foremost, but here and now for a lot of us is the Boston area,
Thank you much and i hope you will include, even just a sentance saying it will be the same or different, I am honestly turning in a weather enthusiest, ever since I purchase a place on the lake
Thank you

[Resident 2B]

This is from the Forecast Discussion out of Portland at 2:50 this afternoon.

RELATIVELY QUIET AND COLD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FOCUS
SHIFTS TO EARLY WEEK STORM WHICH YESTERDAY LOOKED TO BE LIQUID PER
MODEL SOLUTIONS. LATEST INTERMEDIATE AND MAIN SYNOPTIC RUNS NOW
LEANING TOWARD A SOLUTION THAT BRINGS THE STORM FURTHER EAST AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLDER TREND. THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF MOSTLY SNOW
TO THE REGION. 12Z MODELS RANGE FROM GEM TRACK ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE GFS WHICH BRINGS IT OUT AROUND CAPE COD TUESDAY MORNING...THEN
STEERS IT INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY ON TUESDAY EVENING. 12Z EUROPEAN
BRINGS IT FURTHER EAST ALONG THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK. STILL LOTS OF TIME/TRACK ADJUSTMENTS...SO FOR NOW WILL
USE STRAIT GMOS GUIDANCE...RATHER THAN THAN TRY TO GUESSTIMATE
OTHER ASSUMPTIONS. FOR WHAT IT`S WORTH...THE PREVIOUS
WARMER/WETTER SOLUTIONS LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM CONSIDERING SOLID
COLD SNOWBASE IN PLACE. (BUT THEN... DIDN`T EXPECT AS MUCH WARM
AIR/SLEET IN PREVIOUS STORM OVER SOUTHERN/ COASTAL SECTIONS).
AFTER THE STORM PASSES...LOOKS LIKE MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL IMPORT ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE A MODERATION FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.-- End Changed Discussion --

Still early, but it is trending colder still.

R2B

[trfour]

trfour, has been a decent dancer, and in fact to this day.
The models, ( here in Texas tell me ) that this storm is going to be a Fab all snowstorm, with intermittent Thunder snow, for the Lakes Region.
I will be up to doo some more snowmobiling, and [/I][I]Just in case, if my models fail, I will be back, snortly!

[Rose]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

Still early, but it is trending colder still.

R2B

The way the models keep pushing the storm further and further to the east, pretty soon only the fish will be affected.

[RI Swamp Yankee]

I got a laugh out of this line in the forcast discussion (bold added by me)

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
905 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2009

MON NIGHT/TUE/TUE NIGHT...
YIKES...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES! THE TIGHT CLUSTERING OF
SOLUTIONS WE SAW IN YESTERDAY/S MODELS HAS BEEN REPLACED BY LARGE
SPREAD AMONG BOTH THE 00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF TODAY.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product....&highlight=off

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by Rose

The way the models keep pushing the storm further and further to the east, pretty soon only the fish will be affected.

Wise words Rose!

I am assuming you are thinking the salt water fish! If it rains hard on the lake, the fresh water fish could have a positive result.

R2B

[Rose]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

Wise words Rose!

I am assuming you are thinking the salt water fish! If it rains hard on the lake, the fresh water fish could have a positive result.

R2B

Definitely talking about the salt water fishies. And looking at the models this morning, only the GFS is going to nail us (and nail us pretty good if the 06Z run were to verify). The 00Z NAM looked promising, but by 06Z it was trending further east as well.

[SAMIAM]

Even though the prediction for a major warm front for late September did not come true......I think you're right about a chance of rain,or at least some very wet ,heavy snow on mon. or tues. which means we might want to think about snow load on our roofs.Up until now,the snow has been light and fluffy.

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by SAMIAM

Even though the prediction for a major warm front for late September did not come true......I think you're right about a chance of rain,or at least some very wet ,heavy snow on mon. or tues. which means we might want to think about snow load on our roofs.Up until now,the snow has been light and fluffy.

You are sooo right about roof loads if it rains!!

At this time it is looking like some kind of snow, but the models are really not hooked up on this one, so I still think anything can happen, maybe even nothing around here.

I am still looking for my January thaw, the one that I later thought would come in early February. Without the thaw, that snow is just waiting to suck up rainwater, and it will rain sooner or later. The last thing we need is another February like last February.

R2B

[Resident 2B]

Looks like the is going to be a non-event for us at the lake. It certainly will not be an inside runner as I thought it would be a few days ago! It may all go out to sea with little or no snow for us and some snow for Boston. Rose, you may have nailed this last night!

Big plus is the lake ice surface will not be turned into mush and the roofs will last another week or two.

It still could be a minor to moderate snow storm. We need to keep our attention on that possibility.

I think the weather will relax some for the next two weeks or so. It then could get very stormy for two or three weeks, from Feb 16th or so onward. Time will tell on that.

Tough winter overall!

R2B

[Rose]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

Rose, you may have nailed this last night!

The only thing I'm going to nail is my hand if these darn models don't start agreeing on a solution!!! But I think I've found a site that has maps from the ECMWF in the short-range.

Glad to see the professionals are feeling the same way...NWS Taunton refused to go into the details of the models except to say that the US models gave us a snowstorm and the Canadian/European models gave either a glancing blow or a terrible tease.

If the current forecasts (06Z) from the US models were to verify, the NAM would bury most of us in about 16" of snow starting Tuesday morning and slowly tapering off into Wednesday morning, while the GFS would hit us with a double-barreled system giving central NH a foot and parts of southern New England a foot and a half, with most of it falling on Wednesday.

The Canadian model brings a light/moderate storm for parts of the coast on Tuesday, and the ECMWF and UKMET say "here, fishy, fishy, fishy."

Stay tuned...I'm sure one of the next model runs will say we'll be getting the first tropical system of the year.

[trfour]

Good news-Bad news; http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28974906/

[Pine Island Guy]

i've gotten all kinds of conflicting reports for southern nh and mass, what's happening up north tomorrow? snow snow all snow?

thanks -PIG

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by Pine Island Guy

i've gotten all kinds of conflicting reports for southern nh and mass, what's happening up north tomorrow? snow snow all snow?

thanks -PIG

All snow at the lake, but very little. 2" at best, maybe just a dusting.

R2B

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by Rose

I think I've found a site that has maps from the ECMWF in the short-range.

Great Find!

Thanks!

R2B

[eyenotall777]

I thought I would let you all know that it has been snowing in the Boston area since 9am this morning. The snowflakes at this time...10am are big and chunky...lol. Hopefully they make there way to the lake

[SIKSUKR]

Not a flake here in Manch at 10:30 am.

[sa meredith]

Starting now (10:58) in the Merrimack Valley area.

[Pineedles]

Aunty Em, Aunty Em, its a twister!

We're all doomed! started an hour ago in Middleton, Connecticut.

[upthesaukee]

Alton Bay, 1/2 mile off the lake around the Lakewood Ave area, no snow now.

It's about 12:52 PM